Rubio’s Uzbekistan trip underlines Central Asia’s hunt for diverse partners

Can the United States reassert influence with pragmatic, transactional approach to Central Asia as C5+1 summit gets under way?

Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and Uzbekistan's President Shavkat Mirziyoyev greet each other on the sidelines of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit in Turkmenistan, on Friday, October 9, 2026, but relations with US Trump administration may also be warming up [Gavriil Grigorov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP]

United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio is arriving in Samarkand, the fabled Silk Road city in what is now central Uzbekistan, for talks with key regional ministers on Saturday.

The C5+1 – Central Asia plus the US – summit to be held from Saturday to Tuesday heralds Washington’s new approach to the ex-Soviet region – pragmatic, purely transactional and devoid of speeches about democratisation and human rights.

At the dawn of Central Asia’s independence, Americans used to show up in the mostly Muslim region strategically stretched between Russia, China and Iran, bearing gifts – and giving lectures.

After the 1991 Soviet collapse, amid the region’s economic degradation, joblessness and poverty, US and European diplomats and businessmen were seen as ambassadors of the brave new world of capitalist prosperity.

They wanted reforms – and not just the economic ones.

Western diplomats made sure that former Communist apparatchiks-turned-new regional leaders understood that they’d get investments, technologies and international recognition only in exchange for abandoning the Soviet-era totalitarian ways of governing and building the economy.

The West held forums and workshops on human rights, democracy and decentralisation of governance, and sent thousands of students and officials to Western schools.

And the West accused regional leaders of losing their moral compass and threatened sanctions when they began to amend their nation’s constitutions to extend their presidential terms, appoint their family members and friends to key government jobs and help them create business empires that often competed with Western investors.

“When the West began moralising, teaching them about democracy, human rights, they immediately turned towards China or Russia,” Galiya Ibragimova, Uzbekistan-born, Moldova-based regional expert, told Al Jazeera.

Uzbekistan, the region’s most populous nation of 37 million, offers a perfect example.

Its iron-fisted President Islam Karimov was the first ex-Soviet leader to allow a US military base on its soil in 2001.

But four years later, he kicked it out after Washington lambasted his brutal suppression of a popular revolt in the eastern city of Andijan that killed hundreds of unarmed civilians.

In 2005, a leaked US diplomatic cable called Karimov’s daughter, Gulnara , a “robber baron” who forcibly took over lucrative businesses and was seen as her father’s successor.

As to moralising and lecturing, the tables have turned since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, observers say.

Moscow still has plenty of soft power in Central Asia – from movies and pop music to theatre festivals and propagandist TV shows that constantly lie about the war.

The Kremlin also uses its economic clout to promote the imperialist concept of the “Russian World”, where the region is seen as Moscow’s “near abroad”, and its pre-Russian heritage is snubbed as backwards and insignificant.

In 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that Kazakhstan had “never had statehood”, and his ideological allies repeatedly threatened to annex its Russian-speaking northern part.

This year, Kazakhstan began extraditing Kremlin critics and supplying gas to Russia amid Ukrainian drone attacks on its oil refineries.

In January, Kremlin propagandist Vladimir Solovyov said Moscow should launch a “special military operation” – a term reserved for the war in Ukraine – in Central Asia and Armenia.

Critical remarks from minor political figures followed – but no rebukes from the halls of real power.

Meanwhile, Central Asian labour migrants have been duped or forced into enlisting to fight in Ukraine in droves, while Moscow uses Central Asian companies to import microchips, communications equipment and machine tools to build drones and missiles.

“These days, the US and Russia have switched roles. Today, it’s Russia that began building ties through moralising,” Ibragimova, the regional expert, said.

Return of the White House?

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump’s administration has abandoned the pro-democracy stance and now advocates a utilitarian, transactional approach to foreign policy.

“Under Trump, the American policy in Central Asia is all about ‘just business and nothing more’, without being nosy about human rights, reforms. They are content with everything,” Ibragimova said.

Earlier this month, Trump received Saida Mirziyoyeva, the daughter of Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev.

A year earlier, Mirziyoyev pledged to invest up to $100bn in the US economy, buy Boeing aircraft and even US-grown cotton, even though Uzbekistan is one of the world’s largest cotton growers.

Washington did not say a word about Mirziyoyev’s crackdown on critics or his daughter’s growing domestic clout.

After largely ignoring Central Asia during Trump’s first term, the White House wants to resume its presence.

“The interest is mostly geopolitical and military-strategic, considering the region’s location in the zone of Russia’s and China’s interests,” Alisher Ilkhamov, head of the London-based Central Asia Due Diligence think tank, told Al Jazeera.

“In the future, Washington apparently wants to have a military base here as a deterrent measure against China,” he said.

The economic interests seem to be focused on rare-earth minerals – crucial for manufacturing a wide array of technology – and other critical elements, especially since China uses them as a political cudgel in its ties with Washington.

The deposits are abundant, but need development, technologies and investment.

Meanwhile, the White House shows little interest in human rights violations in Central Asia, such as the jailing of political opponents and independent journalists.

“An interest in these issues, unfortunately, is absent from Rubio’s agenda, because these problems went missing from US foreign policy priorities since Trump returned to the White House,” Ilkhamov said.

A Norwegian human rights advocate echoes his concerns.

“There are uncomfortable similarities between Trump’s worldview and established authoritarian regimes like Tajikistan and Turkmenistan,” Ivar Dale, a senior policy adviser with the Norwegian Helsinki Committee, a rights watchdog, told Al Jazeera.

“However, Marco Rubio probably has a better understanding of Central Asia and the challenges there than does [Vice President] JD Vance and [Defense Secretary] Pete Hegseth,” he said.

The US State Department “should bring back the focus [on human rights] if the C5+1 format is to be taken seriously going forward”, he said.

随着C5+1峰会的召开，美国能否以务实、交易性的方式重新确立其在中亚的影响力？

2026年10月9日星期五，在土库曼斯坦举行的独联体峰会期间，俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京（左）和乌兹别克斯坦总统沙夫卡特·米尔济约耶夫互相问候。但与美国特朗普政府的关系可能也在升温。[加夫里尔·格里戈罗夫，卫星通讯社，克里姆林宫照片，美联社]

美国国务卿马可·卢比奥将于周六抵达撒马尔罕，这座位于现今乌兹别克斯坦中部的丝绸之路古城，与该地区的重要部长举行会谈。

将于周六至周二举行的中亚+1峰会（中亚+1）标志着华盛顿对这个前苏联地区的新方针——务实、纯粹的交易性，并且缺乏关于民主化和人权的演讲。

在中亚独立之初，美国人经常出现在这个战略位置优越、横跨俄罗斯、中国和伊朗之间的穆斯林占多数的地区，带着礼物——并发表演讲。

1991 年苏联解体后，该地区经济衰退，失业和贫困蔓延，美国和欧洲的外交官和商人被视为资本主义繁荣新世界的使者。

他们想要改革——而且不仅仅是经济改革。

西方外交官确保那些从前共产党官僚转变为新地区领导人的人明白，只有放弃苏联时代的极权主义治理和经济建设方式，他们才能获得投资、技术和国际认可。

西方举办了关于人权、民主和权力下放的论坛和研讨会，并派遣数千名学生和官员前往西方学校学习。

西方指责地区领导人丧失了道德准则，并威胁要对他们进行制裁，因为他们开始修改本国宪法，延长总统任期，任命自己的家人和朋友担任重要的政府职位，并帮助他们建立经常与西方投资者竞争的商业帝国。

“当西方开始对他们进行道德说教，教导他们民主、人权时，他们立即转向了中国或俄罗斯，”出生于乌兹别克斯坦、现居摩尔多瓦的地区专家加利亚·伊布拉吉莫娃告诉半岛电视台。

乌兹别克斯坦是该地区人口最多的国家，拥有 3700 万人口，就是一个完美的例子。

该国铁腕总统伊斯兰·卡里莫夫是第一个允许美国在其领土上建立军事基地的前苏联领导人，时间是2001年。

但四年后，华盛顿猛烈抨击他残酷镇压东部城市安集延的一场民众起义，导致数百名手无寸铁的平民丧生，之后他便辞去了职务。

2005 年，一份泄露的美国外交电报称卡里莫夫的女儿古尔娜拉为“强盗大亨”，她强行接管了利润丰厚的企业，并被视为她父亲的继承人。

观察人士表示，自俄罗斯在 2022 年全面入侵乌克兰以来，道德说教和训诫的风向已经发生了转变。

莫斯科在中亚仍然拥有大量的软实力——从电影和流行音乐到戏剧节和不断散布战争谎言的宣传电视节目。

克里姆林宫还利用其经济影响力来推广“俄罗斯世界”的帝国主义概念，将该地区视为莫斯科的“近邻”，并轻视其前俄罗斯时代的遗产，认为其落后且无关紧要。

2014 年，俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京声称哈萨克斯坦“从未有过国家地位”，他的意识形态盟友也多次威胁要吞并其讲俄语的北部地区。

今年，在乌克兰无人机袭击俄罗斯炼油厂之际，哈萨克斯坦开始引渡克里姆林宫的批评者，并向俄罗斯供应天然气。

今年1月，克里姆林宫宣传员弗拉基米尔·索洛维约夫表示，莫斯科应该在中亚和亚美尼亚发动一场“特别军事行动”（该术语通常用于乌克兰战争）。

随后一些小政治人物发表了批评意见——但真正的权力中心却没有发出任何谴责。

与此同时，大量中亚劳工移民被欺骗或强迫入伍，前往乌克兰参战；而莫斯科则利用中亚公司进口微芯片、通信设备和机床，用于制造无人机和导弹。

“如今，美国和俄罗斯的角色已经互换。现在，是俄罗斯开始通过道德说教来建立关系，”地区问题专家伊布拉吉莫娃说。

白宫回归？

与此同时，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的政府放弃了亲民主立场，现在提倡功利主义、交易主义的外交政策。

伊布拉吉莫娃说：“在特朗普的领导下，美国对中亚的政策完全是‘只谈生意，别的什么都不管’，对人权和改革漠不关心。他们对一切都很满意。”

本月初，特朗普接见了乌兹别克斯坦总统沙夫卡特·米尔济约耶夫的女儿赛达·米尔济约耶娃。

一年前，米尔济约耶夫承诺向美国经济投资高达 1000 亿美元，购买波音飞机，甚至购买美国种植的棉花，尽管乌兹别克斯坦是世界上最大的棉花生产国之一。

华盛顿方面对米尔济约耶夫镇压批评人士及其女儿在国内日益增长的影响力只字未提。

在特朗普第一任期内基本忽视中亚之后，白宫希望恢复在中亚的存在。

“考虑到该地区位于俄罗斯和中国的利益区域，其利益主要在于地缘政治和军事战略，”总部位于伦敦的中亚尽职调查智库负责人阿利舍尔·伊尔哈莫夫告诉半岛电视台。

他说：“未来，华盛顿显然想在这里建立一个军事基地，以此作为对中国的威慑措施。”

经济利益似乎集中在稀土矿物（对制造各种技术至关重要）和其他关键元素上，尤其是中国将其作为与华盛顿关系中的政治筹码。

矿藏丰富，但需要开发、技术和投资。

与此同时，白宫对中亚的人权侵犯行为，例如监禁政治反对派和独立记者等，表现出极大的兴趣。

伊尔哈莫夫说：“不幸的是，卢比奥的议程中并没有对这些问题表现出兴趣，因为自从特朗普重返白宫以来，这些问题就从美国的外交政策优先事项中消失了。”

一位挪威人权倡导者也表达了同样的担忧。

“特朗普的世界观与塔吉克斯坦和土库曼斯坦等已建立的威权政权之间存在令人不安的相似之处，”挪威赫尔辛基委员会（一个人权监督机构）的高级政策顾问伊瓦尔·戴尔告诉半岛电视台。

“然而，马可·卢比奥可能比副总统JD·万斯和国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯更了解中亚及其面临的挑战，”他说。

他说，如果C5+1机制要继续得到认真对待，美国国务院“就应该重新关注人权问题”。