Won strengthens on robust exports, increased dollar supply

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SEOUL, Oct. 18 (Yonhap) -- The Korean won has strengthened against the U.S. dollar amid an increase in dollar supply driven by robust exports, central bank data showed Sunday.

The Korean won traded at an average of 1,342.6 won per dollar during the first 12 trading days of October, marking the lowest since September 2024, when the average won-dollar exchange rate was 1,332.8 won, according to data from the Bank of Korea (BOK) Economic Statistics System.

The monthly average exchange rate rose to 1,492.5 won in March in the aftermath of the war in the Middle East and to 1,528 won in June amid rising crude oil prices and foreign stock selling.

The won has strengthened since as exporters sold dollars in the market, with the monthly average exchange rate falling to 1,488.9 won in July, 1,404.4 won in August and 1,358.8 won in September.

The exchange rate fell further to 1,328.9 won as of 7:20 p.m. Friday, marking the lowest point since 1,317.1 won recorded on Oct. 2, 2024.

This undated file photo shows U.S. dollar bills. (Yonhap)

Experts said South Korea's trade surplus and ample dollar supply have supported the won's appreciation.

"The foreign exchange market saw a trend of dollar selling driven by the semiconductor boom," said Baek Seok-hyun, an economist at Shinhan Bank's S&T Center. "The average daily trade surplus in September approached US$2.5 billion, while net selling of Korean stocks by foreign investors fell far short of that figure."

South Korea's solid economic growth and the central bank's monetary tightening have also supported the won.

The International Monetary Fund raised South Korea's growth forecast to 3.3 percent for 2026, citing strong semiconductor exports that more than offset the fallout from the war in the Middle East.

The BOK lifted its benchmark interest rate to 3 percent through consecutive rate hikes at its July and August meetings, signaling the possibility of further increases.

Experts expect the won to trade in the low- to mid-1,300-won per dollar range through the end of the year.

"Given upward pressures such as geopolitical risks in the Middle East, oil price concerns, and capital outflows from the stock market by foreign investors due to worries about the artificial intelligence (AI) industry, exchange rate volatility is expected to persist for the time being," said Lee Yoo-jung, an analyst at Hana Bank.

Meanwhile, the won traded at a monthly average of 849 won per 100 Japanese yen in October, its strongest level since December 2007, when the rate averaged 829.2 won, according to the data.

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Won strengthens on robust exports, increased dollar supply

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首尔，10月18日（韩联社）——韩国央行周日公布的数据显示，受强劲出口推动美元供应增加的影响，韩元对美元走强。

根据韩国银行（BOK）经济统计系统的数据，10 月份前 12 个交易日，韩元兑美元平均汇率为 1342.6 韩元兑 1 美元，创下自 2024 年 9 月以来的最低水平，当时韩元兑美元的平均汇率为 1332.8 韩元兑 1 美元。

受中东战争的影响，3 月份韩元月均汇率升至 1492.5 韩元；受原油价格上涨和外国股票抛售的影响，6 月份韩元月均汇率升至 1528 韩元。

此后，由于出口商在市场上抛售美元，韩元走强，7 月份月平均汇率降至 1488.9 韩元，8 月份降至 1404.4 韩元，9 月份降至 1358.8 韩元。

截至周五晚上 7 点 20 分，汇率进一步下跌至 1,328.9 韩元，创下自 2024 年 10 月 2 日创下的 1,317.1 韩元以来的最低点。

这张未注明日期的资料照片显示的是美元钞票。（韩联社）

专家表示，韩国的贸易顺差和充足的美元供应支撑了韩元升值。

新韩银行科技中心经济学家白锡铉表示：“受半导体行业繁荣的影响，外汇市场出现了美元抛售的趋势。9月份韩国日均贸易顺差接近25亿美元，而外国投资者净卖出韩国股票的金额远低于这一数字。”

韩国稳健的经济增长和央行的货币紧缩政策也支撑了韩元汇率。

国际货币基金组织将韩国2026年的经济增长预期上调至3.3%，理由是强劲的半导体出口足以抵消中东战争带来的影响。

韩国央行在7月和8月的会议上连续加息，将基准利率上调至3%，这预示着未来可能进一步加息。

专家预计，到今年年底，韩元兑美元汇率将在1300韩元左右徘徊。

“鉴于中东地缘政治风险、油价担忧以及外国投资者因担忧人工智能（AI）行业而从股市撤资等上行压力，预计汇率波动将在一段时间内持续，”韩亚银行分析师李裕贞表示。

与此同时，数据显示，10 月份韩元兑日元的月均汇率为 849 韩元兑 100 日元，这是自 2007 年 12 月以来的最高水平，当时的平均汇率为 829.2 韩元。

受美联储主席展望和外资流入提振，韩元升至两年高位。

受美联储官员鸽派言论影响，韩元兑美元走强。

受外资流出影响，韩元对美元大幅下跌

韩元因出口强劲和美元供应增加而走强