S. Korea's growth could exceed IMF projection: finance minister

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BANGKOK, Oct. 19 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's economic growth could exceed projections by international organizations, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), barring unexpected external shocks, the finance minister has said, citing robust exports and facility investment data.

Finance Minister Lee Hyoung-il made the assessment during a meeting with reporters in Bangkok on Friday. He visited Thailand to attend the Annual Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank Group last week, marking his first participation in a major international event since taking office last month.

His remarks came after the IMF projected South Korea's economy would grow 3.3 percent this year, raising its forecast by 0.7 percentage point from its July projection amid the global semiconductor supercycle.

"I believe exports and facility investment remained robust in the third quarter," the minister said.

Finance Minister Lee Hyoung-il speaks during a session with reporters at Queen Sirikit National Convention Center in Bangkok on Oct. 16, 2026, in this photo released by the Ministry of Finance and Economy. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

"If that is the case, we think growth could exceed the 3.3 percent projected by the IMF," Lee said. "Barring new external events that significantly impact the economy, I think even the mid-3 percent range could be possible."

Lee later hinted that the mid-3 percent range would cover figures from 3.4 percent to 3.6 percent.

The finance minister said South Korea's economy grew 1.8 percent and 0.6 percent in the first and second quarters, respectively, noting annual growth could exceed expectations if the momentum continued into the third quarter, for which signs were already positive.

Lee added the country's potential growth rate could soon rebound.

"Given recent growth trends and the composition of growth, I believe our potential growth rate could reverse its downward trend and rebound," Lee said. "That turning point is approaching and may even be imminent."

The potential growth rate refers to the potential rate of increase in the GDP a country can sustain by fully utilizing labor, capital and other resources without triggering inflation.

Lee said officials he met during the event, including representatives of credit rating agencies and multilateral development banks, offered positive assessments of South Korea's robust economic growth amid the country's strong chip exports.

"We exchanged views on the South Korean economy with officials from various countries," Lee said.

"Most agreed when I said growth might not be sustainable without addressing disparities and that I intended to focus on the issue," Lee said.

The finance minister said those he met noted how much progress South Korea makes in addressing disparities would depend on the government's efforts, but its attention to the issue itself could help sustain growth momentum.

When asked to identify a specific area of focus in addressing disparities, the finance minister said all sectors are closely linked, making the issue difficult to resolve.

"To tackle these challenges, we are seeking to implement social policies in three key areas, namely housing, jobs and financial services for vulnerable groups, which would likely cover most issues," Lee said.

The finance minister particularly stressed the need to address disparities in the job market, as they are linked to income gaps and disparities across regions and businesses.

In addition, Lee said he is considering increasing the frequency of the government's economic forecasts from twice to three times a year, with an annual outlook at year-end followed by two updates.

"With the economy moving so quickly, I am contemplating whether issuing two projections a year is appropriate under the circumstances," Lee said, noting the ministry could provide one additional update each year.

"If I still hold this view at the end of the year, I think we may stop issuing an economic growth strategy report specifically for the second half of the year starting next year," he said.

colin@yna.co.kr (END)

S. Korea's growth could exceed IMF projection: finance minister

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曼谷，10月19日（韩联社）——韩国财政部长表示，除非出现意想不到的外部冲击，否则韩国经济增长可能会超过包括国际货币基金组织（IMF）在内的国际组织的预测。他援引强劲的出口和投资数据作为佐证。

泰国财政部长李亨日周五在曼谷会见记者时作出了上述评估。他上周访问泰国，出席国际货币基金组织和世界银行集团的年会，这是他上个月就任财政部长以来首次参加大型国际活动。

此前，国际货币基金组织预测韩国经济今年将增长 3.3%，较 7 月份的预测上调了 0.7 个百分点，这主要得益于全球半导体超级周期。

部长表示：“我认为第三季度出口和设施投资依然保持强劲势头。”

2026年10月16日，韩国财政部长李亨日在曼谷诗丽吉王后国家会议中心与记者会面。这张照片由韩国财政经济部发布。（照片非卖品）（韩联社）

李说：“如果情况真是如此，我们认为经济增长可能会超过国际货币基金组织预测的3.3%。除非出现对经济产生重大影响的新外部事件，我认为甚至有可能达到3%左右的增速。”

李后来暗示，3%的中间区间将涵盖3.4%到3.6%的数字。

韩国财政部长表示，韩国经济第一季度和第二季度分别增长了1.8%和0.6%，并指出如果这一势头延续到第三季度，年度增长率可能会超过预期，而第三季度的迹象已经十分积极。

李补充说，该国的潜在增长率可能很快就会反弹。

李表示：“鉴于近期的增长趋势和增长构成，我相信我们的潜在增长率能够扭转下降趋势并出现反弹。这个转折点正在临近，甚至可能即将到来。”

潜在增长率是指一个国家在充分利用劳动力、资本和其他资源而不引发通货膨胀的情况下，能够维持的GDP潜在增长率。

李表示，他在活动期间会见的官员，包括信用评级机构和多边开发银行的代表，都对韩国强劲的经济增长给予了积极评价，这得益于该国强大的芯片出口。

李说：“我们与各国官员就韩国经济交换了意见。”

李说：“大多数人都同意我的观点，即如果不解决不平等问题，经济增长可能不可持续，而我打算重点关注这个问题。”

财政部长表示，他遇到的各方人士都指出，韩国在解决贫富差距方面能取得多大进展，取决于政府的努力，但政府对这一问题的重视本身就有助于保持增长势头。

当被问及在解决差距问题上应该重点关注哪个领域时，财政部长表示，所有部门都密切相关，这使得这个问题难以解决。

李说：“为了应对这些挑战，我们正寻求在三个关键领域实施社会政策，即为弱势群体提供住房、就业和金融服务，这些政策可能会涵盖大多数问题。”

财政部长特别强调，必须解决就业市场中的不平等现象，因为这些现象与收入差距以及地区和企业之间的差异有关。

此外，李表示，他正在考虑将政府经济预测的频率从每年两次增加到三次，年底发布年度展望，之后再进行两次更新。

李表示：“鉴于经济发展如此迅速，我正在考虑在目前情况下每年发布两次预测是否合适。”他指出，该部门每年可以额外提供一次更新。

“如果到年底我仍然持有这种观点，我认为从明年开始，我们可能会停止专门针对下半年发布经济增长战略报告，”他说。

colin@yna.co.kr (完)

韩国财政部长：韩国经济增长可能超过国际货币基金组织的预测