Vance struggles to tame GOP struggles in 2026, and may suffer for them in 2028

Daniel Heuer/Reuters

For the next two weeks, Vice President JD Vance’s job is to save Congress for Republicans.

But then he’ll turn to another political project — himself.

Vance’s 2026 closing arguments on the Iran war, high energy prices and immigration are becoming an early test of whether and how, as a 2028 presidential contender, he might handle the tumultuous legacy of his boss, President Donald Trump.

It’s not an easy task.

Vance’s performance at a CBS town hall that aired this weekend showed he’s finding it tough to navigate the grim midterm environment set by Trump’s unpopularity and policy choices. His inability to promise imminent relief on gas prices; his pleas for more time for an economy that voters hate; and his fuzziness on an end to the Iran war highlighted why the odds seem to favor Democrats two weeks out.

“ Fundamentally, we are where we are ,” Vance said. His comment specifically responded to Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed’s critique of Iran policy, but it also captured the helplessness of GOP candidates caught in Trump’s political undertow.

The tough questions also foreshadowed a momentous decision looming for Vance over whether to run for president in 2028 . A GOP drubbing on November 3 would hand whoever becomes the president’s heir the task of reinventing the party’s message and appeal in two years — with Trump peering over their shoulder.

Vance rather gingerly grappled with how to defend Trump’s immoderate approach on key issues such as immigration that might please the MAGA base but that often seems to alienate a more general audience.

“We’re trying to strike the right balance,” Vance said when asked by a nun why Immigration and Customs Enforcement separation policies appeared to lack compassion and were traumatizing children.

And another of Vance’s flexes — blaming former President Joe Biden — figures to be an even more questionable strategy in two years than it’s proving in the midterm campaign.

Yet Vance is also an intriguing political figure.

At the town hall, he came across as articulate and intelligent. He was more conventional, courteous and empathetic than Trump. And after a decade of presidential leadership by elderly men, his youthfulness raised the possibility of a generational shift in American politics.

Vance, who has a young family and tales of a hard-knocks upbringing, seems more relatable than many in the gilded bubble of billionaires and millionaires that surrounds Trump at the White House and Mar-a-Lago.

The vice president also made apparently sincere efforts to connect with audience members, including one whose wife, Master Sgt. Nicole Amor, was killed in the Iran war and who poignantly wanted answers about what he said were operational failures before her death.

But Vance is not yet Bill Clinton when it comes to feeling others’ pain. He sometimes betrayed the clumsiness of a politician who in his lightning rise has run only a single campaign in his own right — for the Senate in 2022. This could become an issue in the always-on glare of a presidential election race.

Vance’s greatest challenges came in explaining Trump’s decisions on the war and the economy, which are deeply unpopular and have created a tangible link with voters’ own economic struggles, according to almost every opinion poll .

His answers were a study in miniature of the entire midterm season.

“I recognize that gas prices are too high right now,” Vance said, showing more candor than Trump normally does and exemplifying his more direct rhetoric on the economy in general. But his explanation that Iran had held the Strait of Hormuz hostage didn’t account for the fact that this was an obvious outcome of Trump’s war of choice that the White House seemingly failed to anticipate. And Vance’s warnings that Iran must not have a nuclear weapon might have hit home more had Trump tried to make that case to the nation before launching the war.

After Vance blamed Biden for high gasoline prices, CBS anchor Tony Dokoupil jumped in to point out: “It’s almost been two years. At a certain point, it becomes your economy, not Joe Biden’s economy.”

Vance also struggled to square Trump’s repeated declarations of victory early in the war with an opaque reality nearly eight months later. “I would say in some ways we have won decisively, but the Iranians, the enemy gets a vote here,” he said.

Neither of these answers seems likely to appease voters angry with Trump’s administration. A Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos poll on Sunday put the president’s approval rating at only 33%, weighed down by deeply negative perceptions of his policies on the economy and the Iran war.

Polls two weeks out cannot predict the results of elections. But Republicans have been pouring money into red states in a way that supports the perception that Democrats have a good chance to win back the House. The Senate is a tougher ask, however. Democrats would need a net gain of four seats on a tough map featuring key races in states that Trump won easily in 2024.

Vance is hardly alone in laboring to make a strong election message. Michigan Republican Senate nominee Mike Rogers showed Sunday on “State of the Union” how hard it is for candidates to deal with Trump’s looming shadow.

Asked about Trump’s controversial sanctions-busting diesel deal with Russia that shocked even many Republicans last week, Rogers replied: “Well, that’s just not where I would be.” He told CNN’s Dana Bash that Trump had made investments that would benefit his state when the war ends. But he implicitly admitted that talking to voters about the long term doesn’t help much now. “Most people I talk to are frustrated with the costs, you bet. Who isn’t when you’re paying over four bucks a gallon?” Rogers said.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright had little help for Republican candidates facing voters’ wrath over high gas prices. Back in March, he predicted that it would take weeks, not months, for prices to come down. Asked about that assessment by Bash on Sunday, he said, “Of course I’m not comfortable, but I’m happy they’re coming down. They have gone down the last few weeks, as have diesel prices, and they will continue to come down.”

Drivers, however, are still paying an average of $4.30 nationally for gasoline and up to $6.32 a gallon for diesel. Handed this bleak reality, Republicans can do little but warn that things would be worse if Democrats win control of Congress. Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson claimed on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures” that Democratic climate policies would raise prices. “You have to keep the grown-ups in charge, steady hands at the wheel,” Johnson argued.

Daniel Heuer/Getty Images

But calling for continuity when angry voters want change is a tough sell.

And unless Trump somehow slays the affordability curse in the next two years, any GOP presidential candidate will confront the same issue.

Vance, as vice president, is widely seen as Trump’s likeliest successor. But he told CBS he hadn’t decided whether to go for it. “You know, anything can happen, man. Anything,” Vance said. Another supposed contender, Secretary of State Marco Rubio , has repeatedly said that he’s not planning to run and that he’d back Vance.

But CNN’s Donie O’Sullivan reported Saturday that he found little enthusiasm for Vance among a couple of hundred members of the president’s base he spoke with over the last six months. The alternative name he heard most frequently was Rubio.

Successful election campaigns are usually about the future. So the next Republican standard-bearer must conjure a vision that is more compelling than the one Vance offered in the town hall.

At one point he was asked by a small-business owner why Trump’s promise of a “golden age” for the economy hadn’t panned out.

After a lengthy reply stressing a long-term dearth of investment and the positive potential of Trump tax cuts and factory-opening projects, Vance concluded: “I’ll be the first person to tell you that just as this country wasn’t broken in one presidential term, it’s going to take more than 18 months to fix things and turn them around.”

That’s not going to cut it in 2028.

丹尼尔·休尔/路透社

接下来的两周，副总统 JD Vance 的任务是保住共和党在国会的控制权。

但随后他会转向另一个政治项目——他自己。

万斯在 2026 年就伊朗战争、高能源价格和移民问题发表的最后陈述，正在成为对他作为 2028 年总统候选人能否以及如何处理其老板唐纳德·特朗普总统留下的动荡遗产的一次早期考验。

这并非易事。

万斯本周末在哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）市政厅会议上的表现表明，他难以应对特朗普低迷的支持率和政策选择所带来的严峻中期选举形势。他无法承诺立即降低油价；他恳求为选民厌恶的经济政策争取更多时间；他对结束伊朗战争含糊其辞，这些都凸显了为何两周后民主党似乎更有胜算。

“从根本上讲，我们身处此境，”万斯说道。他的这番话主要是回应民主党参议员候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德对伊朗政策的批评，但也反映了共和党候选人在特朗普政治浪潮中束手无策的窘境。

这些棘手的问题也预示着万斯即将面临一个重大决定：是否参加2028年总统竞选。如果共和党在11月3日惨败，那么无论谁成为总统的接班人，都将在两年内肩负起重塑该党信息和吸引力的重任——而特朗普则会时刻关注着他们。

万斯小心翼翼地思考着如何为特朗普在移民等关键问题上的极端做法辩护，这些做法可能会取悦“让美国再次伟大”的支持者，但往往会疏远更广泛的受众。

“我们正在努力寻求合适的平衡，”当一位修女问及为什么移民和海关执法局的分离政策似乎缺乏同情心，并且给儿童造成创伤时，万斯说道。

而范斯的另一项炫耀之举——指责前总统乔·拜登——在两年后可能会比在中期选举中证明的更加令人质疑。

然而，范斯也是一位引人入胜的政治人物。

在市政厅会议上，他表现得口齿伶俐、才智过人。与特朗普相比，他更加循规蹈矩、彬彬有礼、富有同理心。在经历了十年由老年男性担任总统的局面后，他的年轻活力让人看到了美国政治代际更迭的可能性。

范斯有自己的年轻家庭，并且有着坎坷的成长经历，这让他比围绕在白宫和海湖庄园的特朗普身边的亿万富翁和百万富翁们更接地气。

副总统还表现出明显的真诚努力，试图与听众建立联系，其中包括一位妻子妮可·阿莫尔中士在伊朗战争中丧生的听众，她深情地想要了解副总统所说的在她去世前发生的作战失误。

但就体会他人痛苦而言，万斯还远不及比尔·克林顿。他有时流露出政客的笨拙，毕竟在他闪电般的崛起过程中，他只独立竞选过一次——2022年的参议员竞选。在总统大选的聚光灯下，这可能会成为一个问题。

万斯面临的最大挑战是解释特朗普在战争和经济问题上的决策，这些决策非常不受欢迎，而且根据几乎所有民意调查，这些决策与选民自身的经济困境有着切实的联系。

他的回答就像是整个期中考试季的缩影。

“我承认目前的油价过高，”万斯说道，他的坦率程度远超特朗普，也体现了他一贯对经济问题更为直接的措辞。但他解释说，伊朗挟持了霍尔木兹海峡，却忽略了一个显而易见的事实：这正是特朗普发动战争的必然结果，而白宫似乎对此毫无预料。如果特朗普在发动战争前就向全国阐明伊朗不应拥有核武器的警告，或许会更有说服力。

在万斯指责拜登造成汽油价格高企之后，CBS主播托尼·多库皮尔插话指出：“已经快两年了。在某种程度上，经济问题已经变成了你们的经济问题，而不是乔·拜登的经济问题。”

万斯也难以调和特朗普在战争初期反复宣称的胜利与近八个月后扑朔迷离的现实。“我认为在某些方面我们已经取得了决定性的胜利，但伊朗人，也就是敌人，在这件事上也有发言权，”他说。

这两个答案似乎都难以安抚对特朗普政府不满的选民。周日公布的《华盛顿邮报》/美国广播公司新闻/益普索联合民调显示，总统的支持率仅为33%，主要原因是民众对其经济政策和伊朗战争政策的强烈负面看法。

两周前的民调无法预测选举结果。但共和党一直在向传统共和党州投入巨资，这似乎印证了民主党很有可能赢回众议院的看法。然而，参议院的形势则更为严峻。民主党需要在选情复杂的选区中净增四个席位，而这些关键州在2024年特朗普都轻松获胜。

万斯并非唯一一个努力打造强有力竞选信息的候选人。密歇根州共和党参议员候选人迈克·罗杰斯周日在“国情咨文”节目中就展现了候选人应对特朗普阴影的艰难。

当被问及特朗普上周与俄罗斯达成的、甚至令许多共和党人都感到震惊的、备受争议的、规避制裁的柴油交易时，罗杰斯回答说：“嗯，我不会支持这种做法。”他告诉CNN的达娜·巴什，特朗普的投资将在战争结束后惠及他的州。但他含蓄地承认，现在和选民谈论长远问题意义不大。“我接触的大多数人都对油价感到不满，这毋庸置疑。谁在每加仑汽油要花四美元以上的时候不感到不满呢？”罗杰斯说道。

能源部长克里斯·赖特对面临选民对高油价愤怒的共和党候选人几乎没有提供任何帮助。早在三月份，他就预测油价下降需要几周时间，而不是几个月。周日，当巴什就此预测向他提问时，他表示：“我当然不放心，但我很高兴油价正在下降。过去几周，汽油价格和柴油价格都在下降，而且还会继续下降。”

然而，目前全国汽油平均价格仍为每加仑4.30美元，柴油价格高达每加仑6.32美元。面对如此严峻的现实，共和党人除了警告说，如果民主党掌控国会，情况会更糟之外，几乎无计可施。共和党众议院议长迈克·约翰逊在福克斯新闻的“周日早间展望”节目中声称，民主党的气候政策将推高物价。“必须让成年人掌权，稳住方向盘，”约翰逊辩称​​。

Daniel Heuer/Getty Images

但当愤怒的选民想要变革时，呼吁维持现状是很难奏效的。

除非特朗普在未来两年内设法解决房价过高的问题，否则任何共和党总统候选人都将面临同样的问题。

作为副总统，万斯被普遍认为是特朗普最有可能的继任者。但他告诉哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS），他还没有决定是否参选。“你知道，什么事都有可能发生，伙计。什么事都有可能发生。”万斯说道。另一位被认为是潜在候选人的国务卿马可·卢比奥则多次表示他没有参选计划，并表示会支持万斯。

但CNN记者多尼·奥沙利文周六报道称，在过去六个月里，他与总统的数百名支持者交谈后发现，他们对万斯的热情并不高。他听到最多的替代人选是卢比奥。

成功的竞选活动通常都着眼于未来。因此，下一位共和党候选人必须提出比万斯在市政厅会议上提出的愿景更具说服力的方案。

有一次，一位小企业主问他，为什么特朗普承诺的经济“黄金时代”没有实现。

在长篇回复中，Vance强调了长期投资不足以及特朗普减税和工厂开工项目的积极潜力，最后他总结道：“我会第一个告诉你，正如这个国家不是在一个总统任期内就崩溃的一样，修复和扭转局面也需要超过18个月的时间。”

到2028年，这样做是行不通的。