China’s economy grows 4.5 percent in Q3, beating forecasts

GDP growth picks up from Q2 amid AI-driven boom in exports.

Containers are seen on a ship at the Ningbo-Zhoushan port in Ningbo in eastern China's Zhejiang Province on October 15, 2026 [AFP]

China’s economy has grown faster than expected in the most recent quarter amid booming exports underpinned by artificial intelligence, according to official figures.

China’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 4.5 percent in the July-September period from the same quarter a year earlier, picking up from 4.3 percent growth in the second quarter and beating most analysts’ forecasts, figures released on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics showed.

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During the first nine months of the year, GDP grew 4.6 percent year-on-year, according to the preliminary figures.

While China’s technology-related exports have surged during the AI boom, growth in the world’s second-largest economy has been dampened by weak domestic demand and a sagging property market.

China’s ruling Communist Party has set a GDP growth target of 4.5 to 5 percent for 2026, which would be among the slowest expansions in decades, excluding during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Chinese exports surged more than 16 percent in the first three quarters of the year to reach 23.19 billion yuan ($3.47bn), according to the official data, largely due to strong demand for semiconductors and other tech-related goods.

Retail sales, a key measure of domestic consumption, increased 1.1 percent year-on-year in September and 2.6 percent during the first nine months of 2026.

Industrial production, which measures output in sectors such as manufacturing and mining, rose 5.5 percent in September, taking growth in the first three quarters to 5.3 percent.

Investment in fixed assets, which covers spending on real estate, factories and machinery, edged up 0.7 percent last month but contracted 7.2 percent during the January-September period.

Zhiguo He, a finance professor at Stanford University’s Graduate School of Business who studies the Chinese economy, said that while China’s economy is on track to hit official targets, Beijing will be wary of the continuing reliance on export-driven growth.

“I expect Beijing is getting 4.5 percent as wanted,” He told Al Jazeera.

“A managed slow slowdown is the best Beijing can hope for,” he said.

“Real estate is still shrinking. This is what Beijing wanted and a good thing, and China’s households have been adapting their expectations based on this.”

受人工智能驱动的出口繁荣影响，GDP增速从第二季度开始回升。

2026年10月15日，在中国东部浙江省宁波市的宁波舟山港，一艘船上装载着集装箱。[法新社]

官方数据显示，在人工智能的推动下，中国出口蓬勃发展，最近一个季度中国经济增长速度超过预期。

中国国家统计局周一公布的数据显示，今年7月至9月，中国国内生产总值（GDP）同比增长4.5%，高于第二季度的4.3%，也超过了大多数分析师的预期。

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根据初步数据，今年前九个月的GDP同比增长4.6%。

虽然人工智能热潮推动了中国科技相关出口的激增，但全球第二大经济体的增长却因国内需求疲软和房地产市场低迷而受到抑制。

中国执政的共产党已将2026年的GDP增长目标设定为4.5%至5%，这将是几十年来最慢的增速之一（不包括COVID-19疫情期间）。

官方数据显示，今年前三季度中国出口额增长超过16%，达到231.9亿元人民币（34.7亿美元），这主要得益于对半导体和其他科技相关产品的强劲需求。

零售额是衡量国内消费的重要指标，9 月份同比增长 1.1%，2026 年前九个月同比增长 2.6%。

衡量制造业和采矿业等行业产出的工业生产9月份增长了5.5%，使前三个季度的增长达到5.3%。

固定资产投资（包括房地产、工厂和机械设备的支出）上月小幅增长0.7%，但1月至9月期间萎缩了7.2%。

斯坦福大学商学院研究中国经济的金融学教授何志国表示，虽然中国经济正朝着官方目标稳步迈进，但北京方面仍会对继续依赖出口导向型增长保持警惕。

“我预计北京将如愿获得 4.5% 的份额，”他告诉半岛电视台。

他说：“有序的缓慢放缓是北京所能期望的最好结果。”

“房地产市场仍在萎缩。这正是北京所希望的，也是一件好事，中国家庭也已据此调整了他们的预期。”