The kingmakers who could determine Israel’s election

Israel’s Arab-led and ultra-Orthodox parties face attacks but could hold the balance of power after October 27 vote.

Mansour Abbas, leader of the Ra'am party, speaks to supporters in Baqa al-Gharbiyye on October 8 [AMahmoud Illean/AP Photo]

In the run-up to Israel’s high-stakes election , few parties have featured more often in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s attacks on rivals than Ra’am and the Joint List.

Together, the two parties representing the Palestinian citizens of Israel, who make up about 20 percent of the population, are projected to win 13 seats. If this is confirmed at the October 27 polls, the Arab-led lists could be critical to any post-election coalition, regardless of its political stripe.

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list 4 of 4 Israel’s Supreme Court advises Arab party leader to drop election bid

They have been here before.

In 2021, Ra’am made history by becoming the first Arab party to enter an Israeli government after joining a broad coalition that briefly removed Netanyahu from power. Netanyahu had previously shown himself ready to negotiate terms for a potential government with Mansour Abbas , the leader of Ra’am, or the United Arab List. But instead, Abbas joined forces with the coalition of Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid to try to drive through some of the measures he had campaigned for.

This time, both the Netanyahu camp and most leaders of the self-styled Zionist opposition bloc have ruled out forming a government with the parties representing Palestinian citizens. Still, Netanyahu and his allies have sought to portray their political opponents as beholden to the Arab-led lists, while the opposition has been attacking them for their reliance on the minority ultra-Orthodox parties to maintain their own power base.

Opinion polls have consistently indicated that Netanyahu’s Likud party and the far-right coalition it leads are running neck-and-neck with the Zionist opposition bloc, with neither side on track to win an outright majority in the 120-strong Knesset.

“Netanyahu would work with Ra’am in a heartbeat, if it meant staying in power,” said Yossi Mekelberg, a Middle East analyst at Chatham House.

“The opposition, too, don’t seem to understand the consequences of their actions,” he said of repeated attempts across the opposition bloc to undermine the credibility of what may be a future plank in any government.

“If it came down to it, of course they’d accept the support of the party they’d previously vilified without thinking of how that will undermine their government, and undermine the votes of the large numbers of Arab Israelis who support them,” added Mekelberg.

Mansour Abbas, right, and Israeli politician Yoav Segalovitz, attend a news conference in Nazareth on August 31, 2026 [AFP]

In the lead-up to the polls, Likud has repeatedly used hard-hitting attack adverts to warn that if Netanyahu is voted out, it will be the Arab parties that would emerge as kingmakers in a new government potentially led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot, the leader of the Yashar party.

“There is no Gadi without [Ahmad] Tibi,” said a Likud campaign slogan in reference to the leader of Ta’al, one of three parties comprising the Joint List.

The alliance, which also includes the Hadash and Balad factions, has said it could provide a so-called safety net to the anti-Netanyahu coalition by agreeing not to stand against it in a confidence vote, even if the alliance does not join the government. In return, it has said it would demand certain conditions, including a path to Palestinian statehood and fighting organised crime.

Combatting the wave of violent crime that has been allowed to engulf Palestinian communities, as well as addressing discriminatory government policies, including on housing, have also been the focus of Ra’am ahead of the election.

Established in 1996, the party has already distanced itself from its religiously conservative foundations. In December 2025, Abbas said the party’s political decision-making body would separate from its religious council. Eight months later, it selected its electoral list independently for the first time and placed the Jewish Zionist Yoav Segalovitz , a former senior police commander and deputy public security minister in the Bennett-Lapid government, second on its slate.

Describing Ra’am as “one of the most interesting parties” of this year’s election, Mekelberg said: “Through Mansour Abbas, they are continually reinventing themselves without appearing opportunist.”

Mansour Abbas, former Yamina party leader Naftali Bennett and Yesh Atid party leader Yair Lapid, sit together in Ramat Gan, near Tel Aviv, Israel June 2 2021 [United Arab List Raam/Handout via Reuters]

The upcoming election is the first since the Hamas-led attack in southern Israel of October 7, 2023 that led to the killing of an estimated 1,200 people, and triggered Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza.

The war has also sped up a political shift to the right, with Arab-led parties increasingly targeted by right-wing figures seeking to cast them as complicit in the October 7 assault.

In May, Bennett apologised for going into government with Ra’am, while in September, Netanyahu’s Likud and the Otzma Yehudi party of National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir petitioned to bar Ra’am and the Joint List from the election.

On September 23, the Central Elections Committee, whose members are drawn from the Knesset’s parties, voted to disqualify both lists, as well as two individual candidates.

Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh was to be barred over an article he wrote on October 8, 2023 describing the Hamas-led attack of the previous day as an “important historic event”. Ofer Cassif, a Jewish politician with Hadash, was targeted in a petition filed by Likud that cited legal prohibitions on candidates who support “an armed struggle by an enemy state or terrorist organisation against the State of Israel”.

On October 2, the Supreme Court unanimously overturned the disqualifications of the Joint List and Ra’am, as well as Cassif’s, by a 7-2 majority. Abu Shehadeh had withdrawn his candidacy a day earlier, after it became clear the court was likely to uphold his disqualification.

Speaking to Al Jazeera, Cassif later called it “a political decision far more than a judicial one”, driven by “fear that they’re going to need us”.

Orly Noy, a Balad candidate and the first Jewish politician to be voted onto the party list’s top five, said it was “safe to say” that the alliance is not going to be part of the next ruling coalition.

“It depends if the other parties want to prioritise the wishes of their voters or their own racism. However, even if we’re excluded, we can still gain concessions from any coalition in return for our support,” she added. “That might not mean ending the occupation, which of course would be ideal, but there’s a lot we can still do that will make people’s lives better.”

Israeli Knesset member Ofer Cassif hols a Palestinian flag as he joins Israeli left-wing peace activists and Palestinians in a demonstration against the eviction of Palestinians from their homes in the Israeli-annexed east Jerusalem neighbourhood of Sheikh Jarrah [File: Ahmad Gharabli/AFP]

The taint of October 7 has not only extended to Arab parties unconnected to the events of that day, but also to ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties.

As routine partners in Likud’s governing coalitions, they have faced accusations by many leading opponents of draft-dodging, while drawing heavily on what many regard as a generous state welfare package.

Israel’s ultra-Orthodox community is largely represented by two parties: Shas, which draws on Jews of Spanish, North African and Middle Eastern descent; and United Torah Judaism (UTJ), comprising Jews of central and eastern European descent. Each is polling at about seven or eight seats.

Rather than focusing on foreign policy and taxation, their core aims tend to be shielding ultra-Orthodox students from military service, securing welfare support for the large families common in the community, where many men study rather than work, and protecting state funding for their schools and institutions.

Long seen as Netanyahu’s most dependable allies, they broke with Likud last year over its failure to legislate an exemption to the draft. The UTJ left the coalition altogether, while Shas quit the government but did not pull its 11 politicians out of the parliamentary coalition. Shas later gave up its coalition committee roles, and both parties boycotted coalition bills.

Nevertheless, the support of the ultra-Orthodox has come with a political price tag. In January, opposition leader Yair Lapid accused the government of sending billions “to the corrupt and [the] draft dodgers” while another possible contender for the premiership, the right-wing Avigdor Lieberman, who heads the Yisrael Beytenu list, likened Shas and UTJ to the Taliban over their lack of female representation.

Ultra-Orthodox Jewish men block a highway during a protest against army recruitment in Bnei Brak, Israel, [Leo Correa/AP Photo]

以色列的阿拉伯人主导的政党和极端正统派政党面临攻击，但在 10 月 27 日的投票之后，它们可能掌握权力平衡。

10 月 8 日，Ra'am 党领袖曼苏尔·阿巴斯在 Baqa al-Gharbiyye 向支持者发表讲话 [AMahmoud Illean/美联社照片]

在以色列这场至关重要的选举之前，很少有政党像拉姆党和联合名单党那样，在总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡对竞争对手的攻击中频繁出现。

代表以色列巴勒斯坦公民（约占以色列人口的20%）的两个政党预计将赢得13个席位。如果10月27日的选举结果证实了这一点，那么无论选后联盟的政治倾向如何，阿拉伯人主导的政党联盟都可能对其至关重要。

列表 1/4：当今以色列“右”与“左”的含义

以色列选举双重标准（共四项，此为第二项）：阿拉伯领导人被迫下台，极右翼却被清除。

以色列总理内塔尼亚胡批评反对派联合起来反对他参加选举（共4条，此为第3条）

以色列最高法院建议阿拉伯政党领导人放弃竞选（共4条记录，此为第4条）

他们以前来过这里。

2021年，拉姆党创造了历史，成为首个进入以色列政府的阿拉伯政党。此前，该党加入了一个广泛的联合政府，短暂地将内塔尼亚胡赶下了台。内塔尼亚胡此前曾表示愿意与拉姆党领导人曼苏尔·阿巴斯或阿拉伯联合名单党就组建新政府的条款进行谈判。但最终，阿巴斯选择与纳夫塔利·贝内特和亚伊尔·拉皮德组成的联盟联手，试图推行他竞选时提出的一些政策。

这一次，内塔尼亚胡阵营和大多数自诩为犹太复国主义反对派联盟的领导人都已排除与代表巴勒斯坦公民的政党组建政府的可能性。尽管如此，内塔尼亚胡及其盟友仍试图将他们的政治对手描绘成受制于阿拉伯人主导的政党联盟，而反对派则抨击他们依赖少数极端正统派政党来维持自身权力基础。

民意调查一直表明，内塔尼亚胡的利库德集团及其领导的极右翼联盟与犹太复国主义反对派联盟势均力敌，双方都无缘在拥有 120 个席位的以色列议会中赢得绝对多数席位。

“如果能保住权力，内塔尼亚胡会毫不犹豫地与拉姆合作，”查塔姆研究所中东分析师约西·梅克尔伯格说。

“反对派似乎也不理解他们行为的后果，”他谈到反对派联盟屡次试图破坏未来政府可能成为重要组成部分的信誉时说道。

“如果到了那一步，他们当然会接受他们之前诋毁过的政党的支持，而不会考虑这会如何削弱他们的政府，以及会如何削弱支持他们的众多阿拉伯裔以色列人的选票，”梅克尔伯格补充道。

2026年8月31日，曼苏尔·阿巴斯（右）和以色列政治家约阿夫·塞加洛维茨在拿撒勒出席新闻发布会。[法新社]

在选举前夕，利库德集团反复使用强硬的攻击性广告警告说，如果内塔尼亚胡被选下台，阿拉伯政党将成为新政府的“造王者”，而新政府可能由前陆军总司令、亚沙尔党领导人加迪·艾森科特领导。

“没有艾哈迈德·蒂比就没有加迪，”利库德集团的竞选口号如此说道，指的是塔阿勒党的领导人，塔阿勒党是组成联合名单的三个政党之一。

该联盟还包括哈达什党和巴拉德党，它表示，即使联盟最终未能加入政府，它也可以向反内塔尼亚胡联盟提供所谓的“安全网”，即承诺在信任投票中不反对该联盟。作为交换，该联盟表示将提出一些条件，包括巴勒斯坦建国之路和打击有组织犯罪。

在选举前，拉姆还重点关注如何打击席卷巴勒斯坦社区的暴力犯罪浪潮，以及如何解决政府在住房等方面的歧视性政策。

该党成立于1996年，早已与其宗教保守主义根基渐行渐远。2025年12月，阿巴斯宣布该党的政治决策机构将与其宗教委员会分离。八个月后，该党首次独立选出候选人名单，并将犹太复国主义者约阿夫·塞加洛维茨（曾任高级警官，并在贝内特-拉皮德政府担任公共安全部副部长）列为候选人名单第二位。

梅克尔贝格称拉姆党是今年选举中“最有趣的政党之一”，并表示：“通过曼苏尔·阿巴斯，他们不断重塑自我，却又不显得投机取巧。”

2021年6月2日，以色列特拉维夫附近的拉马特甘，前亚米纳党领袖纳夫塔利·贝内特、未来党领袖亚伊尔·拉皮德和曼苏尔·阿巴斯并肩而坐。[阿拉伯联合酋长国名单拉姆/路透社供图]

即将举行的选举是自 2023 年 10 月 7 日哈马斯领导的袭击事件以来的首次选举。该袭击事件导致约 1200 人死亡，并引发了以色列对加沙的种族灭绝战争。

这场战争也加速了政治向右翼的转变，阿拉伯领导的政党日益成为右翼人士的攻击目标，这些人试图将他们描绘成 10 月 7 日袭击事件的同谋。

5 月，贝内特就与拉姆联合执政一事道歉；9 月，内塔尼亚胡的利库德集团和国家安全部长伊塔马尔·本-格维尔的奥茨马·耶胡迪党联名请愿，要求禁止拉姆和联合名单党参加选举。

9月23日，由以色列议会各政党成员组成的中央选举委员会投票决定取消这两个候选人名单以及两名候选人的参选资格。

巴拉德党领袖萨米·阿布·谢哈德因在2023年10月8日发表的一篇文章而被禁止参选。该文章将前一天哈马斯领导的袭击描述为“重要的历史事件”。哈达什党的犹太裔政治家奥弗·卡西夫也成为利库德集团提交的请愿书的目标。该请愿书援引法律禁止支持“敌对国家或恐怖组织对以色列国发动武装斗争”的候选人参选。

10月2日，最高法院以7比2的多数票一致推翻了对联合名单候选人、拉姆以及卡西夫的取消参选资格决定。此前一天，阿布·谢哈德在得知法院很可能维持对其取消资格的决定后，撤回了参选资格。

卡西夫后来在接受半岛电视台采访时称，这“与其说是司法决定，不如说是政治决定”，其驱动力是“害怕他们会需要我们”。

巴拉德党候选人奥利·诺伊是第一位进入该党前五名的犹太裔政治家，他表示“可以肯定地说”，该联盟不会成为下一届执政联盟的一部分。

“这取决于其他政党是想优先考虑选民的意愿，还是优先考虑他们自身的种族主义。不过，即便我们被排除在外，我们仍然可以从任何联合政府那里获得一些让步，以换取我们的支持，”她补充道。“这或许并不意味着结束占领，当然，结束占领才是最理想的，但我们仍然可以做很多事情来改善人们的生活。”

以色列议员奥弗·卡西夫手持巴勒斯坦国旗，与以色列左翼和平活动人士和巴勒斯坦人一起，在以色列吞并的东耶路撒冷谢赫贾拉社区举行示威活动，抗议以色列将巴勒斯坦人从他们的家园驱逐出去。[图片：艾哈迈德·加拉布利/法新社]

10 月 7 日的污点不仅波及到与当天事件无关的阿拉伯政党，也波及到极端正统犹太政党。

作为利库德集团执政联盟的常规合作伙伴，他们遭到了许多主要反对派人士的指责，称他们逃避兵役，同时还大量享受着许多人认为非常慷慨的国家福利待遇。

以色列的极端正统派犹太教社群主要由两个政党代表：沙斯党（Shas），其成员主要来自西班牙、北非和中东地区的犹太人；以及联合托拉犹太教党（UTJ），其成员主要来自中欧和东欧地区的犹太人。两党目前均有望获得七到八个席位。

他们的核心目标与其说是关注外交政策和税收，不如说是保护极端正统派学生免于服兵役，确保社区中常见的大家庭获得福利支持（因为许多男性选择学习而不是工作），以及保护国家对其学校和机构的资助。

长期以来被视为内塔尼亚胡最可靠盟友的他们，去年因利库德集团未能立法豁免征兵而与其决裂。联合托拉犹太教党彻底退出了联合政府，而沙斯党则退出了政府，但并未将其11名议员撤出议会联盟。沙斯党后来放弃了其在联合政府委员会中的职务，两党都抵制了联合政府法案。

然而，获得极端正统派的支持也付出了政治代价。今年1月，反对党领袖亚伊尔·拉皮德指责政府将数十亿资金输送给“腐败分子和逃兵”，而另一位可能的总理候选人、领导以色列贝特努党的右翼人士阿维格多·利伯曼则将沙斯党和联合托拉犹太教党比作塔利班，指责它们缺乏女性代表。

在以色列布内布拉克，极端正统派犹太男子封锁高速公路，抗议军队征兵。[Leo Correa/AP Photo]