Tariff Man finally found tariffs he doesn’t like

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President Donald Trump loves tariffs so much that during his first term, he nicknamed himself “Tariff Man.”

Trump tripled down on tariffs during his second term, lobbing them on friends and enemies alike, in an attempt to revive American manufacturing, crack down on illegal drugs and even to protest an alleged “witch hunt” against an ally in Brazil.

After spiking tariffs last year to the highest level since the Great Depression, Trump posted photos of himself headlined “Mister Tariff” and “The Tariff King.”

But when it came to keeping sky-high tariffs on Russia, Tariff Man balked.

On Friday, Trump ignited bipartisan uproar when he signed an executive order that waived new sanctions and tariffs on Russia two days before they would go into effect. Those penalties were contained in a bill Trump signed into law in September that was named after Lindsey Graham, the late Republican senator from South Carolina.

The executive order suspends tariffs of up to 500% on US imports from Russia and 100% on the top five importers of Russian oil and natural gas.

Tracking the impact of Trump’s tariff policy

In other words, Congress built a new economic weapon to use against Russia’s war machine, but Trump has decided not to fire it — at least for now.

“This eviscerates any real enforcement of the Lindsey Graham sanctions act,” said Ed Mills, Washington policy analyst at financial firm Raymond James.

Mills noted that the move falls within a “pattern” for Trump, who similarly left Russia off the list of countries facing sweeping tariffs in April 2025.

“The timing of the announcement is telling. Friday news dumps are done for the actions you don’t want noticed and politically you don’t want to defend,” Mills said. “This is certainly not the closing argument the GOP wanted weeks before the midterms.”

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The tariff pause helped ease intense pressure in the energy market — but only slightly. Oil futures dipped Monday morning as traders bet that fewer sanctions on Russia will mean more energy supply.

And by early Monday afternoon, Brent crude, the world benchmark, flirted with five-month highs around $110 a barrel.

“Russia is already selling crude oil to China, India, Turkey and elsewhere while they have been limiting exports of refined fuels,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. “The waiver may make it easier to sell oil to a wider range of customers, but whether it leads to additional supplies reaching the market is another question.”

The executive order was met by praise from Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, who hailed it on X as “an important and truly historic moment.”

Multiple Republicans broke with Trump over the decision to scrap the Russia sanctions, including Sen. Darline Graham of South Carolina, who is filling her late brother’s seat and running for a full term.

“I would choose to keep the pressure on Russia to end the war and get the gas prices down because I don’t trust (Russian President Vladimir) Putin and I don’t trust Russia,” she said.

Outgoing Republican Sen. Thom Tillis blasted the move as “beyond irresponsible” and slammed Trump for “capitulating to a Russian dictator who illegally invaded Ukraine and butchers innocent civilians every single day.”

Trump officials defended the decision to waive Russia sanctions.

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A $2 trillion deficit looms over the midterms

Over the weekend, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters the executive order gives Trump time to “study” the global economic impact of the sanctions.

“The problem is that these sanctions were not just sanctions on Russia. They include tariffs on a number of countries — India, for example, and others,” Rubio said. “I think the president wants to take the 60-day period of time to sort of analyze what imposing both sanctions and tariffs will mean to the global economy and even to the US economy.”

The decision was a surprise to some analysts, given Trump’s embrace of tariffs.

Mills said many expected Trump might opt to only lightly enforce the Graham Act sanctions, but not to explicitly pause the tariffs altogether.

Last year, Trump spiked US tariffs on imports to the highest level since the 1930s, according to John Iselin, associate director of economic analysis at The Budget Lab at Yale University.

Although US tariffs have since eased — due to a series of pauses with China, a Supreme Court decision against Trump’s global tariffs and other developments — they are still higher than at any point between the 1940s and 2024.

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唐纳德·特朗普总统非常热衷于关税，以至于在他第一个任期内，他给自己起了个绰号叫“关税先生”。

特朗普在第二个任期内加倍推行关税政策，对盟友和敌人一视同仁，试图以此振兴美国制造业、打击非法毒品，甚至抗议针对盟友巴西的所谓“政治迫害”。

去年，特朗普将关税提高到大萧条以来的最高水平后，发布了自己的照片，标题分别为“关税先生”和“关税之王”。

但当涉及到对俄罗斯维持高额关税时，“关税先生”却犹豫了。

周五，特朗普签署了一项行政命令，提前两天取消了对俄罗斯的新制裁和关税，此举引发了两党的强烈抗议。这些制裁措施包含在特朗普9月份签署生效的一项法案中，该法案以已故的南卡罗来纳州共和党参议员林赛·格雷厄姆的名字命名。

该行政命令暂停对美国从俄罗斯进口的商品征收高达 500% 的关税，并暂停对俄罗斯石油和天然气前五大进口国征收 100% 的关税。

追踪特朗普关税政策的影响

换句话说，国会打造了一种新的经济武器来对抗俄罗斯的战争机器，但特朗普决定暂时不使用它。

“这彻底削弱了林赛·格雷厄姆制裁法案的任何真正执行，”金融公司雷蒙德·詹姆斯的华盛顿政策分析师埃德·米尔斯说。

米尔斯指出，此举符合特朗普的“惯例”，他同样将俄罗斯排除在2025年4月面临全面关税的国家名单之外。

米尔斯说：“宣布这一消息的时机很耐人寻味。周五集中发布消息通常是为了掩盖那些你不想引起注意、也不想在政治上为自己辩护的行为。这绝对不是共和党在中期选举前几周想要抛出的最后陈词。”

卡洛斯·巴里亚/路透社/档案照片

暂停征收关税在一定程度上缓解了能源市场的巨大压力。周一早盘，由于交易员押注减少对俄罗斯的制裁将意味着能源供应增加，原油期货价格下跌。

到周一下午早些时候，世界基准布伦特原油价格逼近五个月来的高点，约为每桶 110 美元。

“俄罗斯在限制成品油出口的同时，已经开始向中国、印度、土耳其等国出售原油，”利波石油咨询公司总裁安迪·利波表示。“这项豁免或许能让俄罗斯更容易地向更多客户出售石油，但它是否会带来更多石油供应进入市场，则是另一个问题。”

这项行政命令受到了俄罗斯主权财富基金负责人基里尔·德米特里耶夫的赞扬，他在X上称其为“一个重要且真正具有历史意义的时刻”。

包括南卡罗来纳州参议员达琳·格雷厄姆在内的多名共和党人因取消对俄罗斯制裁的决定而与特朗普决裂。达琳·格雷厄姆正在填补她已故哥哥的空缺，并竞选一个完整的任期。

她说：“我会选择继续向俄罗斯施压，以结束战争并降低天然气价格，因为我不信任（俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·）普京，我也不信任俄罗斯。”

即将卸任的共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯猛烈抨击此举“极其不负责任”，并抨击特朗普“向非法入侵乌克兰、每天屠杀无辜平民的俄罗斯独裁者投降”。

特朗普政府官员为豁免对俄罗斯制裁的决定辩护。

穆罕默德·埃瑟/阿纳多卢/盖蒂图片社

2万亿美元的财政赤字阴影笼罩着中期选举。

周末期间，国务卿马可·卢比奥告诉记者，这项行政命令让特朗普有时间“研究”制裁对全球经济的影响。

鲁比奥说：“问题在于，这些制裁不仅仅是针对俄罗斯的制裁，还包括对印度等多个国家征收关税。我认为总统希望利用这60天的时间来分析同时实施制裁和关税对全球经济乃至美国经济的影响。”

考虑到特朗普对关税的支持，这一决定令一些分析人士感到意外。

米尔斯表示，许多人预计特朗普可能会选择轻度执行《格雷厄姆法案》的制裁，但不会明确地完全暂停关税。

据耶鲁大学预算实验室经济分析副主任约翰·伊塞林称，去年，特朗普将美国进口关税提高到 20 世纪 30 年代以来的最高水平。

尽管由于与中国的一系列暂停、最高法院反对特朗普全球关税的裁决以及其他事态发展，美国关税此后有所放松，但仍高于 20 世纪 40 年代至 2024 年之间的任何时期。