Trump admin cuts to satellites will set back US weather forecasting by a decade, experts say

The Trump administration’s cuts to weather satellites will set the country back nearly a decade, experts say. The loss of data used to observe, forecast and research extreme weather could prevent the country from making major advances in weather prediction in the coming years.

This finding comes from a new report released Friday from the Government Accountability Office, and a letter sent to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Monday from Democratic lawmakers.

The GAO report details ramifications from budget cuts made to the program for developing new geostationary weather satellites. These large satellites orbit the Earth at a fixed distance, centered over specific spots on the planet. They take the imagery of swirling clouds and storm systems that people see on the evening news or on their weather app each day. The data gathered by these satellites are crucial to issuing accurate weather forecasts.

The budget reductions are aimed at taking the program from $19.6 billion in lifecycle costs to $13 billion. But they introduce the risk of a gap in satellite coverage between when the first of the current geostationary satellites, known as the GOES-R series, reaches the end of its service life, and when the first new satellite comes online in 2032, the GAO found.

Any gap in satellite coverage, which the GAO warned could last for several months, would deprive weather forecasters of vital weather observations and could reduce forecast accuracy.

CNN has reached out to NOAA for comment.

The new satellite program is called the Geostationary Extended Observations program, or GeoXO. Last year, the Trump administration directed NOAA and NASA, which is working with NOAA to develop the spacecraft, to reduce the number of satellites that would be part of the new constellation from six to four, and to eliminate three of the five instruments that these satellites are each slated to carry.

As CNN reported last year , the instrument changes were partly motivated by a push to narrow the satellites’ applicability to weather forecasting, rather than conducting climate research as well. Among the instruments that were nixed: a tool to monitor air quality, including hourly monitoring of wildfire smoke; as well as one meant to study water quality and ocean currents, along with harmful algae blooms.

But so too was a new version of an instrument carried by GOES-R satellites, known as the Geostationary Lightning Mapper . This sensor, first deployed on a GOES satellite in 2017, can detect lightning flashes anywhere on the globe and has proved to be useful for predicting tornadoes as well as monitoring the rapid intensification of tropical storms and hurricanes. Other applications include weather forecasting for aviation and wildfire monitoring.

The first GeoXO satellite will have none of those instruments on board when it launches in 2032, the GAO report stated. Instead, it will carry tools already available on previous satellite models, such as a visible and infrared imager to track storms day and night and an infrared sounder that can be especially useful in feeding data into weather models by taking a vertical snapshot of the atmosphere. The sounder data includes conditions like wind speed and direction as well as humidity levels.

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Originally, NOAA was planning to have three geostationary satellites operating simultaneously, one over the Eastern US, one above the Central US and another above the West. In addition, NOAA requires a spare satellite to be capable of taking over for one of the operational satellites in case of an instrument failure or other mishap.

However, given the new budget cuts and instrument changes, there will now only be a GeoXO satellite over the East and one over the West, along with a backup satellite.

The GAO questioned whether these new satellites are more advanced than what is in orbit. “It is unclear whether GeoXO will improve, or even continue, the functionality available in the current generation of satellites,” the report said.

The lightning mapper’s absence represents a loss of capabilities from the current generation of GOES-R satellites.

“Our need for weather information is much greater now than it was ten years ago,” said Steve Volz, who used to lead NOAA’s satellites division and is now CEO at HyperionEO LLC, a consulting firm focused on Earth observations. He said the other nixed instruments would have specifically addressed “stated requirements from Congress.” He warned the cuts made to instruments on the GeoXO satellites could put the US behind Europe, Japan and China in advancing forecast accuracy.

The top Democrat on the House science committee, Zoe Lofgren, and Democratic member Gabe Amo wrote in a Monday letter to the NOAA administrator that the administration is poised to set the US back years on weather forecasting rather than advancing its capabilities.

“Thanks to the Trump Administration, the next generation of America’s weather satellites could very well be worse than the current ones,” the letter, shared first with CNN, states.

“Two fewer satellites and three fewer scientific instruments are not line items in a budget. They represent a concrete, tangible weakening of America’s ability to understand the weather, the climate, and the world around us,” the letter says.

The letter seeks information from NOAA leadership regarding any cost-benefit analyses completed regarding the loss of certain instruments from GeoXO, among other documents.

专家表示，特朗普政府削减气象卫星预算将使美国在气象预报领域倒退近十年。用于观测、预测和研究极端天气的数据缺失，可能会阻碍美国在未来几年内取得重大天气预报方面的进展。

这一发现来自美国政府问责局周五发布的一份新报告，以及民主党议员周一致美国国家海洋和大气管理局的一封信。

美国政府问责局（GAO）的报告详细阐述了削减地球静止气象卫星研发项目预算所带来的影响。这些大型卫星以固定距离绕地球运行，其中心位于地球上的特定区域。它们拍摄的图像记录了人们每天在晚间新闻或天气应用程序上看到的云层旋转和风暴系统。这些卫星收集的数据对于发布准确的天气预报至关重要。

预算削减旨在将该项目的生命周期成本从 196 亿美元降至 130 亿美元。但美国政府问责局 (GAO) 发现，这会带来卫星覆盖空白期的风险，即在目前地球静止轨道卫星 GOES-R 系列的第一颗卫星达到使用寿命终点，到第一颗新卫星于 2032 年投入使用之间。

美国政府问责局警告称，卫星覆盖的任何空白期都可能持续数月，这将使天气预报员无法获得重要的天气观测数据，并可能降低预报的准确性。

CNN已联系NOAA寻求置评。

这项新的卫星计划被称为地球静止轨道扩展观测计划（GeoXO）。去年，特朗普政府指示美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）以及与NOAA合作开发该航天器的美国国家航空航天局（NASA），将新星座的卫星数量从六颗减少到四颗，并取消每颗卫星计划搭载的五种仪器中的三种。

正如CNN去年报道的那样，此次仪器变更的部分原因是出于将卫星的应用范围限制在天气预报而非气候研究的考虑。被取消的仪器包括：用于监测空气质量（包括每小时监测野火烟雾）的工具；以及用于研究水质、洋流和有害藻类爆发的工具。

但GOES-R卫星搭载的新型仪器——地球静止闪电测绘仪（GEOLM）也同样如此。该传感器于2017年首次部署在GOES卫星上，能够探测全球任何位置的闪电，已被证明在预测龙卷风以及监测热带风暴和飓风的快速增强方面非常有效。其他应用包括航空天气预报和野火监测。

美国政府问责局（GAO）的报告指出，首颗GeoXO卫星将于2032年发射，届时将不会搭载上述任何仪器。取而代之的是，它将携带此前卫星型号上已有的工具，例如用于昼夜追踪风暴的可见光和红外成像仪，以及能够对大气进行垂直快照、并将数据输入天气模型的红外探测仪。探测仪的数据包括风速、风向和湿度等信息。

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最初，美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）计划同时运行三颗地球静止轨道卫星，分别位于美国东部、中部和西部上空。此外，NOAA 还要求配备一颗备用卫星，以便在运行中的卫星发生仪器故障或其他意外情况时能够接替其工作。

然而，由于新的预算削减和仪器变更，现在东部上空将只有一颗 GeoXO 卫星，西部上空将只有一颗 GeoXO 卫星，外加一颗备用卫星。

美国政府问责局质疑这些新卫星是否比现有在轨卫星更先进。报告指出：“目前尚不清楚GeoXO能否改进甚至延续现有卫星的功能。”

闪电测绘仪的缺失意味着当前一代 GOES-R 卫星的功能有所损失。

“我们现在对天气信息的需求比十年前大得多，”史蒂夫·沃尔兹说道。他曾领导美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的卫星部门，现在是专注于地球观测的咨询公司HyperionEO LLC的首席执行官。他表示，其他被取消的仪器原本可以专门满足“国会提出的要求”。他警告说，削减GeoXO卫星上的仪器可能会使美国在提高天气预报准确性方面落后于欧洲、日本和中国。

众议院科学委员会首席民主党议员佐伊·洛夫格伦和民主党议员加布·阿莫在周一致美国国家海洋和大气管理局局长的一封信中写道，本届政府的政策将使美国在天气预报方面倒退数年，而不是提升其能力。

“由于特朗普政府的缘故，美国下一代气象卫星很可能比目前的卫星更糟糕，”这封首先与 CNN 分享的信件写道。

信中写道：“减少两颗卫星和三台科学仪器并非预算中的细项。它们代表着美国了解天气、气候和我们周围世界的能力切实削弱。”

该信函要求 NOAA 领导层提供有关 GeoXO 某些仪器损失的成本效益分析的信息，以及其他文件。