Lula or Bolsonaro’s son? Brazil braces for final choice in knife‑edge runoff

The upcoming presidential runoff in Brazil on Sunday will determine the country's political trajectory, with incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva facing right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro.

Lula seeks a fourth non-consecutive term at the age of 81, while Bolsonaro, who secured 47% of the first-round vote, aims to shift Brazil towards a pro-Trump alignment.

The election has been contentious, with accusations of interference against Meta and a focus on social media campaigning.

Both candidates have emphasized economic issues and democracy, with Bolsonaro vowing to release his jailed father, ex-leader Jair Bolsonaro, if victorious.

RIO DE JANEIRO, Oct 20 — A presidential runoff between Brazil’s incumbent leader Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and his right-wing challenger Flavio Bolsonaro will decide the fate of Latin America’s largest democracy on Sunday.

Lula, on the cusp of 81 and seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, is facing stiff competition from the 45-year-old senator, who is the son of jailed ex-leader Jair Bolsonaro.

Flavio Bolsonaro defied expectations by nabbing 47 per cent of the first-round vote over Lula’s 45 per cent in early October.

The runoff victor will either preserve the vast country of 214 million people as a left-wing stronghold in Latin America, or usher it into the ranks of right-wing administrations loyal to US President Donald Trump.

Trump has not yet explicitly endorsed Flavio Bolsonaro, but the White House has loomed large over a bitterly divisive election campaign.

Lula’s political party has accused US tech giant Meta of election “interference” by allegedly restricting the incumbent’s WhatsApp and Instagram content.

The company has denied doing anything to favour either side, but previously said that some of Lula’s campaign ads had been mistakenly deactivated due to technical errors not isolated to Brazil.

That controversy is unfolding amid a campaign that has largely played out on social media, a realm typically dominated by the political right.

But Brazilian leftists are upping their game, and Lula has begun appealing to voters via front-facing despite not owning his own cell phone.

‘The right to dream’

A recent Datafolha institute poll gave Bolsonaro 51 per cent of voting intentions compared with 49 per cent for Lula, placing the pair in a technical tie given the margin of error.

Polls had underestimated the scale of support for the right-wing candidate ahead of the first round, however.

“Brazil is going to retire you,” Flavio Bolsonaro hurled at his rival during a heated televised debate riddled with low blows on Sunday night.

He pledged to restore “hope and the right to dream” during a rally in the northern Amazonian state of Para on Monday.

The senator has campaigned on promises to improve purchasing power and tackle insecurity — two huge concerns among Brazil’s roughly 160 million registered voters.

“Today, the situation is difficult, with the government raising taxes on those who work to feed the welfare dependency of low-income people,” civil servant Geneci Bispo, 58, told AFP at a Sao Paulo rally on Sunday.

Flavio Bolsonaro has also railed against corruption on the campaign trail, honing in on Lula’s previous conviction which was later annulled.

The senator himself is under investigation for corruption over the funding of a biopic about his father, partly financed by a banker embroiled in one of the biggest financial scandals in Brazilian history.

Democracy a ‘fragile thing’

The shock result of the first round appears to have invigorated the left, with Lula’s camp staging massive rallies ever since.

“I want to thank the Brazilian people who took to the streets to ensure the continuity of democracy in this country,” the president said.

Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year prison sentence under house arrest for attempting a coup following his electoral defeat to Lula in 2022.

Flavio Bolsonaro has sworn to liberate his father if elected.

“Democracy is a very precious and fragile thing,” said marketing professional Camila Hassen, 35, at a leftist protest in Rio de Janeiro on Sunday.

Lula has passed a series of social measures at the eleventh hour in a bid to turn things around for his camp.

His administration last month announced an increase to Bolsa Familia, Lula’s flagship allowance for poor families, which came into effect this week.

The veteran politician also scored an important win by getting parliamentary approval of a reduction in working hours, an extremely popular measure that even Flavio Bolsonaro supported. — AFP

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巴西即将于周日举行的总统决选将决定该国的政治走向，现任总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦将与右翼候选人弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗展开角逐。

现年 81 岁的卢拉寻求第四个非连续任期，而博索纳罗在第一轮投票中获得了 47% 的选票，他的目标是将巴西转向亲特朗普阵营。

此次选举充满争议，Meta 被指控干预选举，并且竞选活动主要集中在社交媒体上。

两位候选人都强调了经济问题和民主，博索纳罗承诺，如果获胜，将释放被监禁的父亲、前领导人雅伊尔·博索纳罗。

里约热内卢，10 月 20 日——巴西现任总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦与他的右翼挑战者弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗之间的总统决选将于周日决定拉丁美洲最大民主国家的命运。

即将年满 81 岁并寻求第四个非连续任期的卢拉，面临着来自 45 岁参议员的激烈竞争，后者是入狱的前领导人雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗的儿子。

弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗出人意料地在 10 月初的第一轮投票中以 47% 的得票率击败了卢拉的 45%，赢得了选举。

决选的获胜者要么会保住这个拥有 2.14 亿人口的大国在拉丁美洲的左翼堡垒地位，要么会将其带入效忠美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的右翼政府行列。

特朗普尚未明确支持弗拉维奥·博索纳罗，但白宫在这次充满分裂的选举活动中扮演了重要角色。

卢拉所在的政党指责美国科技巨头 Meta 干预选举，据称该公司限制了现任总统在 WhatsApp 和 Instagram 上的内容。

该公司否认采取任何偏袒任何一方的行动，但此前曾表示，卢拉的一些竞选广告由于技术错误而被错误地停用，而这些技术错误并非巴西独有。

这场争议是在一场主要在社交媒体上展开的运动中发生的，而社交媒体领域通常由政治右翼主导。

但巴西左翼人士正在加大力度，卢拉甚至在没有自己的手机的情况下，也开始通过面对面的方式向选民发出呼吁。

“梦想的权利”

Datafolha 研究所最近的一项民意调查显示，博索纳罗的支持率为 51%，卢拉的支持率为 49%，考虑到误差范围，两人的支持率实际上不相上下。

然而，在第一轮投票前，民调低估了右翼候选人的支持规模。

“巴西会让你退役的，”弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗在周日晚间一场充满人身攻击的激烈电视辩论中向他的对手怒斥道。

周一，他在亚马逊北部帕拉州的一次集会上承诺恢复“希望和梦想的权利”。

这位参议员竞选时承诺提高购买力并解决安全问题——这两件事都是巴西约 1.6 亿注册选民极为关注的问题。

“如今形势严峻，政府提高了那些为了维持低收入人群的福利依赖而工作的人的税收，”58 岁的公务员 Geneci Bispo 周日在圣保罗的一次集会上告诉法新社。

弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗在竞选过程中也猛烈抨击腐败，尤其关注卢拉之前被定罪但后来被撤销一事。

这位参议员本人正因涉嫌腐败接受调查，原因是其父亲的传记电影的资金来源存在问题，而部分资金来自一位卷入巴西历史上最大金融丑闻之一的银行家。

民主是“脆弱的东西”

第一轮投票结果令人震惊，似乎激发了左翼的斗志，卢拉阵营此后一直在举行大规模集会。

总统说：“我要感谢走上街头，确保巴西民主延续的巴西人民。”

雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗因在 2022 年大选中败给卢拉后企图发动政变，被判处 27 年监禁，目前在家软禁服刑。

弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗发誓，如果当选，他将解放他的父亲。

“民主是一件非常珍贵又脆弱的事情，”35岁的市场营销专业人士卡米拉·哈森周日在里约热内卢的一次左翼抗议活动中说道。

为了扭转局势，卢拉在最后一刻通过了一系列社会措施。

他的政府上个月宣布提高卢拉为贫困家庭提供的旗舰补助金“家庭补助金”（Bolsa Familia），该补助金已于本周生效。

这位资深政治家还取得了一项重要胜利，即议会批准了缩短工时的法案，这是一项极受欢迎的措施，甚至连弗拉维奥·博索纳罗也表示支持。——法新社

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