Trump’s approval ratings plummet: what that means for the US midterms

Sitting presidents usually see a dip in approval ratings before midterms, but Trump’s ratings are at a historic low.

US President Donald Trump speaks to members of the media as he departs the White House en route to Kansas, in Washington, DC, US, October 19, 2026 [Kevin Lamarque/Reuters]

United States President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have fallen to a record low, a sign that Americans angry about rising living costs amid the deeply unpopular US-Israel war on Iran could punish his party at the upcoming midterm elections.

Most Americans are unhappy with Trump’s performance, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Monday, with more people saying they plan to vote for Democrats on November 3.

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Sitting US presidents have traditionally seen a dip in approval ratings around the midterms, and that has often coincided with their parties losing seats in Congress.

With Trump’s ratings lower than any of his predecessors, experts say Democrats could reach their goal of flipping both the US House of Representatives and the Senate in the congressional vote.

All 435 districts in the House and 33 of the 100 Senate seats are up for election.

Republicans currently hold a slim majority of 218-214 seats in the House, and are also leading in the Senate, with a 53-47 majority. However, Democrats are campaigning hard to seize majorities in both houses, a scenario that could prove a major headache for Trump.

Here’s what the latest polls might mean for these elections:

People shout during a No Kings rally in New York on October 17, 2026. The nationwide day of action aims to encourage nonpartisan voter turnout and early voting before the November midterm elections [Olga Fedorova/EPA]

What do the latest polls show?

About 31 percent of Americans polled by Reuters/Ipsos said they were happy with Trump’s performance – the lowest-ever figure during Trump’s two terms as president. Two weeks earlier, the number stood at 32 percent.

When asked which party they would vote for if the midterms were held today, 47 percent chose Democrats, while 35 percent opted for Republicans. That represents a 12-point advantage for the Democrats, the widest ever in the current cycle, and is up from the seven-point lead two weeks ago.

The slide in support for Republicans came from the growing number of women choosing Democrats – about half of those polled. More voters – 40 percent – also said Democrats were better at managing the economy, compared with 33 percent who selected Republicans.

The polls, which canvassed 1,679 adults, are a generic ballot providing an overview of voter sentiment, but not a state-by-state breakdown, meaning the results could still be surprising.

What is the history of presidential polling ahead of the midterms?

The president and party in charge of the White House usually face some backlash in the midterms.

Supporters of the non-presidential party are often more motivated to vote in the midterms than their counterparts, according to the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

The think tank also found that in 12 of the past 20 midterm elections since 1946, the sitting president’s approval ratings worsened between July and November, the months just before the elections. Only in seven instances did approval ratings improve, while in one case, during the 2006 elections under President George W Bush, the president’s approval ratings stayed the same.

What has that pattern meant for midterm results?

With a dip in presidential ratings being the norm, a more favourable view of the sitting president still often correlates with the governing party losing fewer seats in the midterms, according to researchers.

When presidential approval ratings are much lower, the party in power often loses more seats.

In the 20 midterm elections held since 1946, the governing party lost seats in the House of Representatives in 18 instances, although a well-liked president often cushioned the effect, according to data from The American Presidency Project run by the University of California (UC), Santa Barbara.

For example, Americans’ favourable view of President George Bush – 75 percent in the 1990 midterms – saw Republicans lose only eight seats across the two houses.

But research aggregating the UC Santa Barbara data found that when presidents have approval ratings below 50 percent, their party was likely to have a bad election.

In 1994, for example, when President Bill Clinton’s first midterm approval rating stood at 46 percent, Democrats lost 52 seats in Congress.

But when Clinton’s approval rose to 66 percent by the next midterms in 1998, Democrats lost only five seats.

What does that mean for Trump?

Researchers say Trump’s plummeting ratings amid the US-Israel war on Iran are highly likely to affect Republicans negatively.

With Trump’s generally low ratings – the lowest of any president in US history, according to UC Santa Barbara’s aggregate – researchers say the odds that Republicans will keep their thin majority in Congress are very small.

The question, however, remains just how badly the party could be hurt by Trump’s policies.

Republicans might have some hope yet. According to the Center for Politics, presidential approval in the past five midterms has generally been slightly higher in exit polls than in pre-election polling, because those later surveys include people who have actually voted.

That means the midterm results ultimately hinge on how well parties convince supporters to actually cast their ballots.

How many seats could the Democrats take?

According to NBC News, which conducts its own polling and provides state-by-state breakdowns, Senate Democrats are likely to win North Carolina and Maine from the Republicans. NBC also sees Alaska, Iowa and Texas as states that could go either way.

In the House of Representatives, NBC predicts “possible flips” from Republican to Democrat in 15 districts. It rates four districts currently held by Republicans and three held by Democrats as “toss-up”.

If the Democrats were to win all of those close contests without losing any of their current seats, they would gain a total of 22 seats in the House of Representatives and five in the Senate.

在任总统在中期选举前通常会出现支持率下降的情况，但特朗普的支持率已跌至历史新低。

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普于2026年10月19日在华盛顿特区离开白宫前往堪萨斯州时，向媒体成员发表讲话。[凯文·拉马克/路透社]

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的支持率已跌至历史新低，这表明，在极不受欢迎的美以对伊朗发动战争之际，不断上涨的生活成本令美国民众感到愤怒，这可能会在即将到来的中期选举中惩罚他的政党。

路透社/益普索周一公布的民调显示，大多数美国人对特朗普的表现不满意，更多的人表示他们计划在11月3日投票给民主党。

问题 1/4：为什么在中期选举前搜查伊尔汗·奥马尔的住所会引起争议？

列表 2/4：白宫没有“动荡”

列表 3/4 特朗普支持内塔尼亚胡：美国是否正计划与以色列联手对伊朗发动新的袭击？

列表 4/4：民调显示特朗普支持率跌至历史新低 31%，共和党面临困境

美国总统在中期选举前后支持率通常会下降，而这往往与他们所属政党在国会失去席位同时发生。

由于特朗普的支持率低于他的任何一位前任，专家表示，民主党人有可能在国会选举中实现同时拿下美国众议院和参议院的目标。

众议院全部 435 个选区和参议院 100 个席位中的 33 个席位都将进行选举。

目前，共和党在众议院以218比214的微弱优势占据多数席位，在参议院也以53比47领先。然而，民主党正积极争取在两院都获得多数席位，这种情况可能会给特朗普带来很大的麻烦。

以下是最新民调可能对本次选举产生的影响：

2026年10月17日，在纽约举行的“反对国王”集会上，人们高喊口号。这项全国性的行动旨在鼓励无党派选民积极投票，并在11月中期选举前提前投票。[Olga Fedorova/EPA]

最新民调显示什么？

路透社/益普索的民调显示，约有31%的美国受访者对特朗普的表现感到满意，这是特朗普两届总统任期内最低的满意度。两周前，这一数字为32%。

当被问及如果今天举行中期选举他们会投票给哪个党派时，47%的人选择了民主党，35%的人选择了共和党。这意味着民主党领先12个百分点，是本届选举周期以来最大的领先优势，也比两周前的7个百分点有所扩大。

共和党支持率下滑的原因在于越来越多的女性选择支持民主党——约占受访女性的一半。此外，更多选民（40%）认为民主党更擅长管理经济，而选择共和党的选民中只有33%的人持相同观点。

这项民意调查访问了 1679 名成年人，是一份通用调查问卷，提供了选民情绪的概览，但没有按州细分，这意味着结果仍然可能令人惊讶。

总统选举中期选举前的民调历史是怎样的？

总统和执政党通常会在中期选举中面临一些反对声浪。

弗吉尼亚大学政治中心的研究表明，非总统候选人所在政党的支持者往往比总统候选人所在政党的支持者更有动力参加中期选举投票。

该智库还发现，自1946年以来的20次中期选举中，有12次在任总统的支持率在7月至11月（即选举前的几个月）期间下降。只有7次支持率上升，而2006年小布什总统执政期间，总统的支持率保持不变。

这种模式对中期选举结果意味着什么？

研究人员表示，尽管总统支持率下降已成为常态，但对现任总统的积极看法通常仍然与执政党在中期选举中失去的席位较少相关。

当总统支持率大幅下降时，执政党往往会失去更多席位。

根据加州大学圣巴巴拉分校（UC Santa Barbara）运营的美国总统项目的数据，自 1946 年以来举行的 20 次中期选举中，执政党在 18 次中期选举中失去了众议院的席位，尽管一位受民众爱戴的总统通常会缓解这种影响。

例如，美国民众对乔治·布什总统的好感度在 1990 年中期选举中达到了 75%，导致共和党在参众两院仅失去了 8 个席位。

但对加州大学圣巴巴拉分校数据的汇总研究发现，当总统的支持率低于 50% 时，他们所在的政党很可能在选举中失利。

例如，1994 年，比尔·克林顿总统在第一次中期选举中的支持率为 46%，民主党在国会失去了 52 个席位。

但到了 1998 年的中期选举，克林顿的支持率上升到 66%，民主党只失去了 5 个席位。

这对特朗普意味着什么？

研究人员表示，在美以对伊朗发动战争期间，特朗普的支持率暴跌很可能会对共和党人产生负面影响。

鉴于特朗普的支持率普遍较低——根据加州大学圣巴巴拉分校的综合数据，这是美国历史上所有总统中最低的——研究人员表示，共和党保住其在国会的微弱多数席位的可能性非常小。

然而，问题仍然是，特朗普的政策究竟会给该党造成多大的伤害。

共和党人或许还有一线希望。据政治中心（Center for Politics）的数据显示，过去五次中期选举中，总统支持率在出口民调中通常略高于选前民调，因为选前民调包含了实际投票的选民。

这意味着中期选举结果最终取决于各政党能否有效地说服支持者实际投票。

民主党能赢得多少个席位？

据美国全国广播公司（NBC）报道，该机构自行进行民调并提供各州详细数据，参议院民主党人很可能从共和党手中赢得北卡罗来纳州和缅因州。NBC还认为阿拉斯加州、爱荷华州和德克萨斯州的选情胶着，胜负难料。

美国全国广播公司（NBC）预测，众议院有15个选区可能从共和党转为民主党。该公司将目前由共和党控制的4个选区和由民主党控制的3个选区评为“势均力敌”。

如果民主党人赢得所有这些势均力敌的选举，并且不失去任何现有席位，他们将在众议院获得 22 个席位，在参议院获得 5 个席位。