Iran denies collapse is close as US claims IRGC running out of money

Iranian authorities have remained defiant despite the financial strain, saying they want to lift the US blockade and pressure on their terms.

Volunteer Iranian women attend a training at the Jan-Fada ('Self-Sacrificed for Iran') military training camp, at Imam Hussein square in Tehran, Iran, October 4, 2026 [EPA]

Tehran, Iran – Iranian authorities have rejected claims that Iran is unable to support its regional allies, but acknowledged that the United States’ sanctions and the war have created financial challenges.

US Central Command chief Brad Cooper claimed last week that a combination of military attacks and a naval blockade of Iran’s southern ports “has dealt severe blows” to the country.

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The admiral said the US had prevented at least $25bn in Iranian crude exports and helped freeze approximately $350m in cryptocurrency assets. This means the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are now unable to pay their soldiers and Iran-linked regional groups suffering from financial shortfalls.

“The financial strain on Iran’s military has become so significant that there are reports of Iran-aligned militia groups across the region withholding payments to their soldiers in order to funnel money back to the IRGC, which also is not paying its troops,” Cooper said.

This is being portrayed as a victory for the US in its war with Iran, which so far has shown very few tangible victories for Washington.

Michael Knights, head of MENA research at US-based intelligence and geopolitical risk advisory firm Horizon Engage, said Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen have suffered financially during the past few years.

“The national economies feeding the Hezbollah and Houthi movements are badly broken, so they continue to receive stipends and in-kind funding – in fuel products – from Iran,” Knights told Al Jazeera.

Supporters of Lebanese Shia movement Hezbollah hold up portraits of slain leader Hassan Nasrallah as they wave flags of the group during a ceremony held to mark the second anniversary of Nasrallah’s killing in a strike by Israel, in Beirut’s southern suburbs, on September 27, 2026 [AFP]

For decades, the IRGC Quds Force has supplied money, weapons, components, training and manufacturing expertise to regional allied groups. It has enabled partners at loggerheads with the US and Israel to assemble or produce a number of weapons locally, according to United Nations experts and US officials.

The axis groups also draw on businesses, including oil exports, as well as donations and local resources to fund their operations. Some Iraqi factions have been integrated into the official security forces and receive government funding through the Popular Mobilisation Forces.

Allied commercial networks in Iraq are selling Iranian commodities and distributing proceeds through intermediaries and exchange houses, the US Department of the Treasury has claimed.

This has put them in a better financial position than their “poorer cousins” in Hezbollah and the Houthis, Knights said, with some money allegedly flowing from Iraq towards Iran in recent years.

“Some Iraqi militiamen and government civil servants are indeed paid late at the same time that Iraqi militias send funding overseas to help Iran, the Houthis and Lebanese Hezbollah,” he told Al Jazeera.

The US Treasury alleged in September that Kataib Hezbollah , a prominent Tehran-backed Shia Muslim armed group in neighbouring Iraq, siphoned Iraqi resources to support Iran.

The Treasury also described substantial earlier transfers from the Quds Force to Hezbollah, depicting flows in both directions.

A report by the Reuters news agency earlier this month cited unnamed sources as saying Hezbollah received $200m from Iran in September . The US State Department rejected the report at the time, saying Hezbollah was “trying to save face with fake stories about cash influxes from Iran”.

People pose for photos on a stage during a Popular Mobilisation Forces rally celebrating the end of the US military presence in Iraq on September 30, 2026 in Baghdad, Iraq [Guy Peterson/Getty Images]

Iran says no ‘collapse’ imminent

Iran’s economy has taken hit after hit in recent years due to war, domestic mismanagement and sanctions .

This has led to runaway inflation, low-paying jobs, a depreciating national currency and isolation from the global community for 90 million Iranians.

There appears to be little sign of the situation improving, with the World Bank reporting earlier this month a projected 7.7 percent contraction of the economy in the fiscal year 2026-27.

The authorities emphasise that does not affect their resolve. They have also challenged US Treasury assessments that economic pressure could result in losing control within months .

“Despite all these pressures, the Iranian economy has demonstrated very good resilience, and the claim that Iran’s economy is collapsing is nothing more than an illusion,” Central Bank chief Abdolnaser Hemmati said earlier this month.

President Masoud Pezeshkian acknowledged on Sunday that military attacks and the maritime blockade had created substantial problems for the country. But he said his government was relying on domestic capacities to withstand the pressure.

He claimed consumption management had now removed the need for petrol imports that would otherwise cost $12bn, if US pressure allowed imports at all. The president promised to return revenues from recently increased fuel prices to households by modestly increasing their electronic food vouchers.

Knights said the Iranian authorities were “stuck in an aggressive cycle of escalation with the US government no matter what state Iran’s economy is in”.

“Trump is betting that being poorer will make Iran’s regime more flexible, but that has never been a good bet,” he said.

Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Washington, DC-based Center for International Policy, said she expected Tehran to continue prioritising its regional allied groups despite the financial strains involved.

“Economic pressure is certainly constraining Iran’s military resources, but that does not mean it will fundamentally change the IRGC’s strategic calculations or force Tehran to surrender,” she told Al Jazeera.

尽管面临财政压力，伊朗当局仍然态度强硬，称他们希望按照自己的条件解除美国的封锁和压力。

2026年10月4日，伊朗德黑兰伊玛目侯赛因广场的 Jan-Fada（“为伊朗自我牺牲”）军事训练营，伊朗女志愿者参加训练。[EPA]

伊朗德黑兰——伊朗当局否认了伊朗无力支持其地区盟友的说法，但承认美国的制裁和战争造成了财政挑战。

美国中央司令部司令布拉德·库珀上周声称，军事打击和对伊朗南部港口的海上封锁相结合，“对伊朗造成了严重打击”。

真主党三项融资计划清单之一：对黎巴嫩政府构成新的挑战

也门战争再度爆发，沙特城市遭到袭击，伊朗对胡塞武装的支持受到调查（共3条，此为第2条）。

列表 3（共 3 项）：以色列 2026 年大选的运作方式

这位海军上将表示，美国已阻止了至少250亿美元的伊朗原油出口，并冻结了约3.5亿美元的加密货币资产。这意味着伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）现在无力支付士兵薪饷，而与伊朗有关联的地区组织也面临资金短缺。

库珀说：“伊朗军方的财政压力已经变得非常严重，有报道称，该地区与伊朗结盟的民兵组织扣留士兵的薪饷，以便将资金输送回伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队，而伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队也没有向其部队支付薪饷。”

这被描绘成美国在对伊战争中的胜利，但迄今为止，华盛顿在这场战争中几乎没有取得任何实质性的胜利。

美国情报和地缘政治风险咨询公司 Horizo​​n Engage 的中东和北非研究主管迈克尔·奈茨表示，黎巴嫩真主党和也门胡塞武装在过去几年中遭受了经济损失。

“为真主党和胡塞运动提供资金的国家经济已经严重崩溃，因此他们继续从伊朗获得津贴和实物资助——燃料产品，”奈茨告诉半岛电视台。

2026年9月27日，在贝鲁特南部郊区举行的纪念黎巴嫩什叶派运动真主党领导人哈桑·纳斯鲁拉遭以色列空袭身亡两周年的仪式上，真主党的支持者们挥舞着该组织的旗帜，并举着纳斯鲁拉的画像。[法新社]

数十年来，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队圣城旅一直向地区盟友提供资金、武器、零部件、培训和制造技术。据联合国专家和美国官员称，圣城旅帮助一些与美国和以色列关系紧张的伙伴在当地组装或生产多种武器。

轴心国武装组织还利用包括石油出口在内的商业活动，以及捐款和当地资源来资助其行动。一些伊拉克派别已被纳入正规安全部队，并通过人民动员部队获得政府资助。

美国财政部声称，伊拉克境内的盟军商业网络正在出售伊朗商品，并通过中间商和外汇兑换机构分配收益。

奈茨表示，这使得他们的经济状况比真主党和胡塞武装的“穷亲戚”要好得多，据说近年来一些资金从伊拉克流向了伊朗。

“一些伊拉克民兵和政府公务员确实被拖欠工资，与此同时，伊拉克民兵却向海外输送资金，帮助伊朗、胡塞武装和黎巴嫩真主党，”他告诉半岛电视台。

美国财政部在9月份指控，伊朗支持的邻国伊拉克境内一个著名的什叶派穆斯林武装组织“真主党旅”挪用伊拉克资源以支持伊朗。

美国财政部还描述了圣城旅此前向真主党的大量资金转移，并描述了双向资金流动的情况。

路透社本月早些时候援引匿名消息人士的话报道称，真主党9月份从伊朗获得了2亿美元。美国国务院当时驳斥了该报道，称真主党“试图通过捏造伊朗资金流入的虚假故事来挽回颜面”。

2026年9月30日，在伊拉克巴格达，人们在人民动员部队集会上摆姿势拍照，庆祝美国结束在伊拉克的军事存在。[盖伊·彼得森/盖蒂图片社]

伊朗称近期不会出现“崩溃”

近年来，由于战争、国内管理不善和制裁，伊朗经济遭受了接连不断的打击。

这导致伊朗9000万民众面临恶性通货膨胀、低薪工作、本国货币贬值以及与国际社会隔绝的困境。

目前看来，情况似乎没有丝毫好转的迹象。世界银行本月早些时候报告称，预计2026-27财年经济将萎缩7.7%。

当局强调，这不会影响他们的决心。他们还对美国财政部关于经济压力可能导致数月内失去控制权的评估提出质疑。

“尽管面临所有这些压力，伊朗经济仍表现出非常好的韧性，所谓伊朗经济正在崩溃的说法不过是一种错觉，”伊朗中央银行行长阿卜杜勒纳赛尔·赫马蒂本月早些时候表示。

总统马苏德·佩泽什基扬周日承认，军事袭击和海上封锁给国家造成了巨大困难。但他表示，政府正依靠国内能力抵御压力。

他声称，消费管理政策已经消除了进口汽油的必要性，否则，如果美国施压允许进口，进口汽油将耗资120亿美元。总统承诺将近期燃油价格上涨带来的收入返还给家庭，具体做法是小幅提高电子食品券的金额。

奈茨表示，无论伊朗经济状况如何，伊朗当局都“陷入了与美国政府不断升级的咄咄逼人的循环之中”。

“特朗普认为，伊朗政权因为贫穷而变得更加灵活，但这从来都不是一个明智的赌注，”他说。

位于华盛顿特区的国际政策中心高级研究员内加尔·莫尔塔扎维表示，尽管面临财政压力，她预计德黑兰仍将继续优先考虑其地区盟友集团。

她告诉半岛电视台：“经济压力无疑限制了伊朗的军事资源，但这并不意味着它会从根本上改变伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队的战略考量，或者迫使德黑兰投降。”