Lavrov backs Tehran, but does Russia also gain from the US-Iran crisis?

Moscow pledges support to its sanctioned ally, but analysts say the war that Iran wants to end has filled Russia’s coffers.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, left, shakes hands with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi upon his arrival in Tehran, Iran [AFP]

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov pledged Moscow’s support for Iran when he met his counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, and President Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran on Monday.

On Tuesday, Araghchi wrote on X: “Never in our history have Iran and Russia worked as closely as now.”

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But Russia’s position is not straightforward.

The war on Iran, launched by the United States and Israel on February 28, has pushed up oil prices and handed Moscow a windfall. Washington has now also eased sanctions on Russian energy to bring down fuel costs – a major complaint from consumers in the US, who will shortly vote in mid-term elections.

So how close are Moscow and Tehran, and does Russia really want the US-Iran crisis to end? Here’s what you need to know:

Why has Lavrov visited Tehran now?

To shore up a wartime partnership, and to shape what happens next.

Nader Hashemi, an associate professor of Middle East politics at Georgetown University, told Al Jazeera that with both countries fighting wars, Lavrov’s “primary motive is to solidify that alliance”.

He said the aim is to advance each side’s war goals: “Russia against Ukraine, Iran against the United States.”

But Hashemi said the main reason is that the US-Israeli attack has left the Middle East regional order unravelling, and Moscow wants a say in what replaces it.

“I suspect there’s a longer-term agenda here,” he said.

How close are Russia and Iran?

They have a strategic partnership, though their treaty stops short of a military alliance.

Putin and Pezeshkian signed a 20-year Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty in Moscow in January 2025.

It came into force that October, but unlike Russia’s pact with North Korea, it has no mutual defence clause.

Ties deepened after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with Iran sharing Shahed drone technology that enabled Russia to build its own version.

In 2024, Washington accused Tehran of also sending Russia ballistic missiles.

In Tehran, Lavrov said Russian specialists who had left Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant – heavily damaged in US strikes – would gradually return.

Other countries are aware of the closeness of their relationship.

On Sunday, Lavrov was in Bahrain for a strategic dialogue session between Russia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and he was urged by its members to use Moscow’s influence with Tehran to press for “serious dialogue” and restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic Gulf waterway that Iran effectively closed shortly after the war began earlier this year.

Has Russia helped Iran in the war against the US?

The Russian Foreign Ministry has condemned what it called the “unlawful aggression” of the US and Israel, but Moscow has not intervened militarily.

US media outlets, citing intelligence reports, have said Russia and China supplied Iran with satellite imagery and weapons components. US President Donald Trump has dismissed those reports.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, left, and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin in St Petersburg, Russia [File: Dmitri Lovetsky/AP]

How has Russia benefitted from the US-Iran war?

After Iran effectively closed Hormuz, through which one-fifth of global oil and natural gas supplies are shipped during peacetime, the price of Brent crude rose from around $72 a barrel to as high as $120 a barrel in March and April. On Tuesday, Brent – the global benchmark – was trading at above $109 a barrel.

By April, revenue from Russia’s biggest oil tax had roughly doubled to about $9bn, according to Reuters calculations, as buyers unable to get supplies from the Gulf switched.

Since March, the US Treasury has issued waivers allowing sales of Russian oil already loaded at sea. This month, it waived sanctions on Russian diesel until April 2027.

On Friday, Trump suspended newly passed sanctions on Russia and on buyers of its oil and gas. The move has sparked outrage among members of his own Republican Party who backed the sanctions bill.

On Sunday, he claimed he did not want to “drive, foolishly, Russia away from the bargaining table” in Ukraine talks.

“The Kremlin is using this opportunity to align Russian and American interests on Ukraine to try to stop Ukraine from continuing its attacks on Russian refineries,” John Lough, an associate fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House and a senior research fellow at the New Eurasian Strategies Centre, told Al Jazeera.

“This has led to the breakdown of relations between Trump and Zelenskyy, which suits Moscow’s purposes because it is putting US policy in conflict with Europe’s policy on Ukraine,” he said.

So, does Russia really want the US-Iran war to end?

For now, Russia would appear to have every reason to want the stand-off between Washington and Tehran to continue, as it is “benefiting from higher oil prices and from the diesel squeeze that has encouraged Trump to lift sanctions and allow Russia to supply diesel to the US market,” Lough said.

But Nikita Smagin, an analyst on Russia’s role in the Middle East, told Al Jazeera on Monday that while Russia certainly has a partial interest in the conflict continuing, on balance, it likely does not want to see it escalate, as the consequences could be unpredictable.

Could Russia be an effective mediator in the US-Iran war?

Moscow talks to all sides caught up in this conflict, which Hashemi said gives it an edge over Washington. Much of the region has been affected as Iran has launched strikes against US military assets and energy infrastructure in the countries hosting US assets. These include Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.

Hashemi said Russia is “perfectly situated to shape a future new Middle East regional order” as “a major power that has direct diplomatic relations with all of the parties” in the region.

“The United States can’t make that claim because the United States has no relationship with Iran,” he said.

Putin has already acted as a channel with Washington, stating he relayed Iran’s views on ending the conflict to Trump in a phone call on October 9.

But Hashemi said he did not think “Trump is looking to Putin to help solve the Iran war”.

Trump’s Iran policy is shaped, he said, “first and foremost by Trump’s personal idiosyncrasies”, and then by his relationship with Israel, reflected among close advisers including Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff and Mike Waltz, the US ambassador to the United Nations.

Still, with Trump “in a quagmire”, Hashemi added: “I suspect that there are intense discussions between Russia and the United States.”

That could come to a head at a possible three-way summit.

Last month, the Kremlin said Putin and Trump had discussed meeting China’s President Xi Jinping to talk about the Ukraine war, at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen in November, but the White House has not confirmed whether Trump will attend.

If such a meeting on Ukraine goes ahead, Hashemi said he suspects “the Iran war will also be part of the discussion”, with Trump looking to China and Russia “to see whether there’s any room there to help him negotiate an end to the war”.

On Monday, Lavrov said Moscow expects Pezeshkian to attend the Gas Exporting Countries Forum summit in Moscow at the end of October.

Meanwhile, US and Iranian forces continue to fight for control of Hormuz ahead of the US midterm elections on November 3.

Trump has threatened to “soon finish the job” with Iran, but Araghchi responded by saying, “We have unfinished jobs, too.”

莫斯科承诺支持其受制裁的盟友，但分析人士表示，伊朗想要结束的这场战争却让俄罗斯的国库充盈起来。

俄罗斯外交部长谢尔盖·拉夫罗夫（左）抵达伊朗德黑兰时与伊朗外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇握手。[法新社]

俄罗斯外交部长谢尔盖·拉夫罗夫周一在德黑兰会见伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇和总统马苏德·佩泽什基扬时，承诺莫斯科将支持伊朗。

周二，阿拉格奇在X上写道：“伊朗和俄罗斯在历史上从未像现在这样密切合作过。”

芬兰寻求埋设一百万枚地雷，以应对俄罗斯的威胁（共四条，此为第一条）

苏丹无人机袭击事件升级（共4起），据报道造成160人死亡（第2起）

美乌关系恶化（共四项），特朗普与泽连斯基在会谈和军备问题上发生冲突，列表三：美乌关系恶化

泽连斯基将与维特科夫和欧洲人就俄乌战争举行会谈（名单共4条，此为第4条）

但俄罗斯的立场并非如此简单。

美国和以色列于2月28日对伊朗发动战争，推高了油价，使莫斯科获得了意外之财。华盛顿现在也放松了对俄罗斯能源的制裁，以降低燃料成本——这是即将参加中期选举的美国消费者的主要抱怨。

那么，莫斯科和德黑兰的关系究竟有多密切？俄罗斯真的希望美伊危机结束吗？以下是您需要了解的信息：

拉夫罗夫为何此时访问德黑兰？

巩固战时伙伴关系，并塑造未来发展方向。

乔治城大学中东政治学副教授纳德尔·哈希米告诉半岛电视台，由于两国都在交战，拉夫罗夫的“主要动机是巩固这一联盟”。

他说，其目的是为了推进双方各自的战争目标：“俄罗斯对抗乌克兰，伊朗对抗美国”。

但哈希米表示，主要原因是美以袭击导致中东地区秩序瓦解，而莫斯科希望在新秩序的建立过程中拥有发言权。

“我怀疑这背后有更长远的计划，”他说。

俄罗斯和伊朗关系有多近？

他们建立了战略伙伴关系，但他们的条约并未发展成军事联盟。

2025年1月，普京和佩泽什基扬在莫斯科签署了为期20年的全面战略伙伴关系条约。

该条约于当年10月生效，但与俄罗斯和朝鲜的条约不同，它没有共同防御条款。

2022年俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰后，两国关系进一步加深，伊朗向俄罗斯提供了“沙赫德”无人机技术，使俄罗斯能够制造自己的版本。

2024年，华盛顿指责德黑兰也向俄罗斯运送弹道导弹。

拉夫罗夫在德黑兰表示，此前离开伊朗布什尔核电站（该核电站在美国的袭击中严重受损）的俄罗斯专家将逐步返回。

其他国家都意识到了他们之间密切的关系。

周日，拉夫罗夫在巴林参加俄罗斯与海湾合作委员会（GCC）之间的战略对话会议。海湾合作委员会成员敦促他利用莫斯科对德黑兰的影响力，推动“严肃对话”，恢复霍尔木兹海峡的航运。霍尔木兹海峡是波斯湾的战略水道，伊朗在今年早些时候战争爆发后不久就有效地关闭了这条水道。

俄罗斯是否在与美国的战争中帮助过伊朗？

俄罗斯外交部谴责了美国和以色列所谓的“非法侵略”，但莫斯科并未进行军事干预。

美国媒体援引情报报告称，俄罗斯和中国向伊朗提供了卫星图像和武器部件。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普否认了这些报道。

伊朗外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇（左）与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京在俄罗斯圣彼得堡会面 [图片：Dmitri Lovetsky/AP]

俄罗斯从美伊战争中获得了哪些好处？

伊朗有效封锁霍尔木兹港后，布伦特原油价格在3月和4月从每桶约72美元飙升至每桶120美元。霍尔木兹港是和平时期全球五分之一石油和天然气供应的运输通道。周二，作为全球基准的布伦特原油价格超过每桶109美元。

据路透社计算，到 4 月份，俄罗斯最大的石油税收入大约翻了一番，达到约 90 亿美元，因为无法从海湾地区获得供应的买家转向了其他来源。

自3月以来，美国财政部已发布豁免令，允许销售已装船出海的俄罗斯石油。本月，财政部又将对俄罗斯柴油的制裁豁免期延长至2027年4月。

周五，特朗普暂停了新近通过的对俄罗斯及其油气买家的制裁。此举引发了支持该制裁法案的共和党内部人士的强烈不满。

周日，他声称自己不想“愚蠢地把俄罗斯赶出乌克兰谈判桌”。

“克里姆林宫正利用这个机会，将俄罗斯和美国在乌克兰问题上的利益结合起来，试图阻止乌克兰继续袭击俄罗斯炼油厂，”查塔姆研究所俄罗斯和欧亚项目副研究员、新欧亚战略中心高级研究员约翰·洛夫告诉半岛电视台。

他说：“这导致了特朗普和泽连斯基之间关系的破裂，这正合莫斯科的意，因为它使美国的乌克兰政策与欧洲的乌克兰政策产生了冲突。”

那么，俄罗斯真的希望美伊战争结束吗？

洛夫表示，就目前而言，俄罗斯似乎有充分的理由希望华盛顿和德黑兰之间的对峙继续下去，因为它“受益于更高的油价和柴油供应紧张，这促使特朗普解除制裁，允许俄罗斯向美国市场供应柴油”。

但研究俄罗斯在中东地区角色的分析师尼基塔·斯马金周一告诉半岛电视台，虽然俄罗斯肯定对冲突继续下去有一定的兴趣，但总的来说，它可能不希望看到冲突升级，因为后果可能难以预料。

俄罗斯能否成为美伊战争的有效调解人？

莫斯科与卷入这场冲突的各方都进行了对话，哈希米表示，这使莫斯科比华盛顿更具优势。由于伊朗对驻有美国军事设施和能源基础设施的国家发动了袭击，该地区大部分地区都受到了影响。这些国家包括巴林、科威特、阿曼、约旦和阿拉伯联合酋长国。

哈希米表示，俄罗斯作为“与该地区所有各方都保持直接外交关系的大国”，“完全有能力塑造未来中东地区新的秩序”。

他说：“美国不能提出这样的主张，因为美国与伊朗没有任何关系。”

普京已经充当了伊朗与华盛顿之间的沟通渠道，他表示在10月9日的一次电话中，他向特朗普转达了伊朗关于结束冲突的观点。

但哈希米表示，他不认为“特朗普正在寻求普京的帮助来解决伊朗战争”。

他说，特朗普的伊朗政策“首先是由特朗普的个人怪癖所塑造的”，其次是由他与以色列的关系所塑造的，这种关系体现在他与以色列的亲密顾问身上，包括贾里德·库什纳、史蒂夫·威特科夫和美国驻联合国大使迈克·沃尔兹。

不过，鉴于特朗普“陷入困境”，哈希米补充道：“我怀疑俄罗斯和美国之间正在进行激烈的讨论。”

这可能会在可能的三方峰会上得到解决。

上个月，克里姆林宫表示，普京和特朗普讨论了在11月深圳举行的亚太经合组织（APEC）峰会上与中国国家主席习近平会面，讨论乌克兰战争问题，但白宫尚未确认特朗普是否会出席。

哈希米表示，如果就乌克兰问题举行这样的会议，他怀疑“伊朗战争也将是讨论的一部分”，特朗普会寻求中国和俄罗斯的帮助，“看看是否有空间帮助他谈判结束这场战争”。

周一，拉夫罗夫表示，莫斯科希望佩泽什基扬出席10月底在莫斯科举行的天然气出口国论坛峰会。

与此同时，在11月3日美国中期选举前夕，美国和伊朗军队继续争夺霍尔木兹岛的控制权。

特朗普威胁要“很快完成”对伊朗的“工作”，但阿拉格奇回应说：“我们也有未完成的工作。”