N. Korea may be testing Trump's red lines with increased missile launches in 2nd term: analysis分析：朝鲜可能在特朗普第二个任期内增加导弹发射，试探其红线。
WASHINGTON, Oct. 20 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un may be testing U...
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WASHINGTON, Oct. 20 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un may be testing U.S. President Donald Trump's tolerance for military provocations, a U.S. think tank analysis showed Tuesday, as Pyongyang has increased its missile launch activities during Trump's second term.
The analysis by Victor Cha and Andy Lim of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) raised the possibility that Kim is seeking to gauge Washington's response to his expanding weapons activities despite Trump's repeated overtures for renewed dialogue.
The two suggested Kim "may be testing Trump himself and the limits of Trump's red lines," which they characterized as no intercontinental ballistic missile tests, no nuclear tests and no lethal attacks.
The analysis noted that North Korea has carried out 34 missile launch events during the first 21 months of Trump's second term, double the 17 recorded during the comparable period of his first term.
Pyongyang has also fired at least 93 missiles since Trump returned to office in January 2025, already exceeding the total number launched throughout his entire first four-year presidency, according to the analysis.
The researchers also highlighted North Korea's expanding weapons programs, including the flight-testing of new hypersonic missiles, a ground test of a high-thrust solid-fuel missile engine and launches of cruise and anti-ship missiles from its new Choe Hyon destroyer.
They also raised other possible explanations for Kim's activities, including efforts to test weapons under a new five-year military development plan or position himself ahead of a possible summit with Trump in China next month.
"Whatever the reason, Trump's return to the White House and his unrequited summitry have not necessarily brought the restraint and respect trumpeted by the president," the analysis said.
Trump has repeatedly expressed interest in engaging with Kim again, citing their "good" personal relationship, amid speculation about a possible meeting during the president's planned visit to China next month.
North Korea test-fires one of two kinds of submarine-launched strategic cruise missiles in the East Sea on Oct. 14, 2026, in this photo released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency the next day. The launch was intended to "examine the current mobilized posture of the underwater combat systems" and help the Navy better perform its strategic missions," according to the KCNA. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
odissy@yna.co.kr (END)
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N. Korea may be testing Trump's red lines with increased missile launches in 2nd term: analysis
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华盛顿，10月20日（韩联社）——美国一家智库周二的分析显示，朝鲜领导人金正恩可能正在试探美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对军事挑衅的容忍度，因为平壤在特朗普的第二个任期内增加了导弹发射活动。
战略与国际研究中心 (CSIS) 的 Victor Cha 和 Andy Lim 的分析提出了一种可能性，即尽管特朗普一再提出重启对话，金正恩仍在试图评估华盛顿对其不断扩大的武器活动的反应。
两人暗示金正恩“可能是在试探特朗普本人以及特朗普划定的红线”，他们所指的红线包括不进行洲际弹道导弹试验、不进行核试验以及不进行致命性攻击。
分析指出，在特朗普第二个任期的前 21 个月里，朝鲜进行了 34 次导弹发射，是其第一个任期同期记录的 17 次的两倍。
分析显示，自特朗普 2025 年 1 月重返总统职位以来，平壤至少发射了 93 枚导弹，已经超过了特朗普第一个四年总统任期内发射导弹的总数。
研究人员还重点介绍了朝鲜不断扩大的武器计划，包括新型高超音速导弹的飞行测试、高推力固体燃料导弹发动机的地面测试，以及从其新型“崔贤”号驱逐舰发射巡航导弹和反舰导弹。
他们还提出了金正恩活动的其他可能解释，包括根据新的五年军事发展计划测试武器，或为下个月可能在中国与特朗普举行的峰会做准备。
分析指出：“无论原因如何，特朗普重返白宫以及他单方面寻求的峰会并未带来总统所宣扬的克制和尊重。”
特朗普多次表示有兴趣再次与金正恩接触，并称两人关系“良好”。外界猜测，特朗普总统计划下个月访问中国，期间可能会与金正恩会面。
2026年10月14日，朝鲜在东海试射了两种潜射战略巡航导弹中的一种。朝鲜官方通讯社朝中社次日发布了这张照片。朝中社称，此次试射旨在“检验当前水下作战系统的部署状态”，并帮助海军更好地执行战略任务。（仅限韩国境内使用，禁止转载）（韩联社）
odissy@yna.co.kr (完)
（第二条）朝中社报道，朝鲜测试采用人工智能技术的新型精确制导鱼雷。
（第二部分）朝鲜发射战略巡航导弹，可能来自核动力攻击潜艇。
分析：朝鲜可能在特朗普第二个任期内增加导弹发射，试探其红线。