Democrats fear slippage with Black voters makes Michigan Senate race feel ‘far closer than it should’

Jim Vondruska/Reuters

Abdul El-Sayed often talks about building a new and broad coalition of Michigan voters. A looming question in the state’s pivotal Senate race is whether he can keep the old one intact — particularly with the Black voters who are pivotal to any Democratic victory.

The Republican nominee, former Rep. Mike Rogers, has spent months working to make inroads with traditional Democratic constituencies that did not support El-Sayed, a progressive former public health official, in his bitter primary battle against Rep. Haley Stevens.

And even though more than $280 million has been spent on television advertisements in Michigan since the 2026 midterm election cycle began, with billboards and campaign yard signs dotting the landscape alongside the fall colors, some political leaders wonder whether there is sufficient enthusiasm among Black voters for El-Sayed at this late stage.

“It only takes this much of Detroit to defect. It only takes this much of Flint to defect,” said the Rev. Charles Williams II, pastor of the Historic King Solomon Baptist Church in Detroit, holding his fingers about an inch apart to drive home his point. “If even a sliver of people don’t turn out, you run into a huge challenge in trying to get your candidate over that line.”

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Michigan is crucial to Democrats’ hopes of the net four-seat gain the party needs on November 3 to win control of the Senate. If the party fails to retain the seat of retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, its path to a majority would grow much more difficult — and would run almost exclusively through much redder states than this upper Midwestern perpetual political battleground.

El-Sayed defeated Stevens in the August primary by just 1 percentage point — a narrow victory fueled by his strong support among Arab American and Muslim communities, young voters and progressives in college towns.

But Stevens had clear strengths, too: Black voters in and around Detroit largely aligned behind her, as did Jewish voters who have long expressed deep concerns with El-Sayed, who is Muslim and a strident critic of Israel’s actions in Gaza.

Rogers has made reaching those constituencies a central focus of his campaign in the race’s closing weeks, as he looks to assemble a coalition of voters more favorable to Republicans than in 2018, the last midterm election with President Donald Trump in office. That year, Democrats won four statewide races in Michigan, all by a range of about 7 to 9 percentage points.

At a Detroit Economic Club forum on Tuesday, Rogers bragged that he has “built coalitions that really are very untraditional for a Republican candidate.”

He pointed to plans to incentivize new home construction in Detroit, connect those construction efforts to high school apprenticeships, and eliminate “food deserts” in the city. He also said many Democrats have told him they fear the rising influence of democratic socialists within the party.

“We’ve spent a lot of time here in Detroit, Flint, Pontiac,” he said, listing cities with large Black populations. “I think if we’re going to get our state right, we have to have everybody included in its forward progress.”

In a bid to ease lingering Democratic doubts about El-Sayed, former President Barack Obama is set to visit Michigan, where he’ll attend a Saturday rally in Detroit with El-Sayed and the party’s nominee for governor, Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson.

David Guralnick/Pool/Reuters

Other prominent Black Democrats have visited Michigan in recent weeks, including former Vice President Kamala Harris, who held a roundtable focused on Black maternal healthcare with El-Sayed. Sen. Raphael Warnock of Georgia is also set to campaign with El-Sayed, as are several members of the Congressional Black Caucus.

“As much as he thinks he’s making inroads, folks are smart,” El-Sayed told CNN. “Mike Rogers is simply a rubber stamp on what Donald Trump wants. They understand exactly who Mike Rogers is.”

While conversations with Black leaders and voters across Detroit show widespread support for El-Sayed, quiet concerns emerged about whether questions pertaining to the nominee’s background could dampen support. Historic tensions between Arab American and Black communities also were raised as points of anxiety.

“In a close race, even a sliver of doubt about Abdul could lead to defeat,” one prominent Black leader told CNN, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss concerns frankly. “And this race feels far closer than it should.”

Even as prominent Black Democratic leaders in Michigan express concern about the Senate race, El-Sayed — who spent recent days campaigning in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, a sparsely populated region where he hopes his populist pitch will chip away at the GOP’s traditionally strong margins — is downplaying and even mocking Rogers’ efforts to win over Black voters.

At a campaign stop in Flint, a majority-Black city, a few hundred supporters turned out for an El-Sayed rally on Sunday afternoon. Only about a dozen members of the audience who packed into a large hotel conference room were Black, which was striking for a Democratic campaign event two weeks before the election.

Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images

As he spoke to reporters afterward, El-Sayed said he saw no reason for concern.

“Look, one of the hardest things about this economy is that too often folks are having to work multiple jobs and having to work on weekends,” he told CNN. “We know because of exactly the policies architected by folks like Donald Trump, that falls hardest on Black folks.”

He was joined at the rally by Democratic Rep. Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts, one of several Black members of Congress who have traveled to campaign alongside him.

“We feel really strong about the relationship we’ve built and will continue to build,” El-Sayed said of his outreach to Black voters.

When asked about the Rogers campaign opening a storefront office on Livernois Avenue in Detroit as part of its effort to win over Black voters, El-Sayed answered with a laugh.

“I saw he opened a cute little office in Detroit where he brought all his friends from the suburbs to come clap him in. It was nice, yeah,” El-Sayed said. “He’s got no actual message for anyone who is struggling to make ends meet.”

Marcia Turner, who attended the Flint rally, said she was optimistic about El-Sayed, who she called “the right person at the right time.” But even her kind words underscored a history of some tension between the Black and Arab communities of Michigan.

“I love that he’s running,” Turner said. “I think people are looking past his religion and seeing him as a man who wants what we want for our children and grandchildren.”

Naura Evans, a teacher and mother of two from Sterling Heights, is a proud Black Republican. She appears in a television commercial, saying: “I voted for Barack Obama, but this year, I’m voting for Mike Rogers.”

She said she grew up in a Democratic family but has become more conservative since her 2008 vote for Obama. She said she thinks schools and neighborhoods haven’t improved under Democratic rule and believes in Rogers’ plans for both.

She said she feels that Democrats have taken Black voters for granted over the years, so she spends time going door-to-door in Warren, Troy and Sterling Heights, trying to persuade voters to join her in supporting Rogers.

“It’s very important that we elect the right people,” Evans said. “As Blacks in our community, we show that our vote matters. We’re not just giving the vote away.”

She said the Rogers campaign should get credit for opening an office in Detroit.

“I’ve seen Mike Rogers definitely step out of his space and go into the Black community,” Evans said. “I think it’s practical and I think it’s also symbolic that he cares about Detroit. He could have opened an office anywhere and he chose Detroit.”

She dismissed one of the biggest pieces of criticism she hears from Democrats about Rogers — that he would be a rubber stamp for Trump.

“This is not a presidential election, it’s a senator’s election, and ultimately Mike Rogers will be the one making his own decisions,” Evans said. “I’m sure that his decisions will not be influenced by someone else.”

Quentin Murray listened to the full slate of Democratic candidates speaking at a carpenters’ union hall on Sunday in Detroit. He said he was just beginning to learn more about El-Sayed’s candidacy but liked what he heard.

“I like what he’s bringing to the table — something new, something different,” said Murray, a carpenter. “His culture is different, but when you see somebody like that, it’s good to know that we have the same interests and values.”

Yet even in his praise, Murray casually brought up El-Sayed’s culture, which has been at the center of the campaign in bitter attack ads about his upbringing and beliefs.

El-Sayed, a doctor and former public health official whose parents immigrated to the US from Egypt, was born and raised in Michigan.

At nearly every campaign stop, he briefly explains his family history and pushes back at some of the racially charged conversations about his name, which has been regularly belittled by Trump, who has taken to calling him “Mohammed Abdul El-Sayed.”

Abdul El-Sayed pressed on Muslim Brotherhood by town hall attendee

Rogers has attempted to connect El-Sayed to the Muslim Brotherhood — which El-Sayed has denounced — and cast him as sympathetic to interests connected to Islamic terror. The GOP has pointed to old tweets from his sister describing El-Sayed’s birth mother’s activism with the Muslim Brotherhood while she was in college in the early 1970s. In a recent debate, Rogers also pointed out that El-Sayed’s mother worked for the Islamic American Relief Agency, a nonprofit that the Treasury Department in 2004 designated as an organization supporting terrorism. El-Sayed was primarily raised by his father and stepmother in Michigan.

“My name and my faith are not the reason you can’t afford your gas. My name and my faith are not the reason you cannot afford your groceries,” El-Sayed told supporters in Flint. “My name and my faith are not the reason you can’t see a doctor. I mean chances are if you’re seeing a doctor, they might actually have my name and my faith.”

Charity Dean, who owns a Detroit coffee shop and is president of the Michigan Black Business Alliance, said she has been pleasantly surprised by the enthusiasm for El-Sayed in her city.

“Detroit is more conservative than folks would think — a lot more moderate,” Dean said. “I think his campaign has done a phenomenal job of really busting out of the box and saying, ‘Are you happy with how things are now? Are you happy with forever wars?’”

Since finishing a distant second in Detroit in the August primary, Dean said, El-Sayed has listened to voters — supportive and skeptical ones alike — and has worked to build a campaign to win them over.

“One of the things that’s gained him a lot of ground is his ability to respond to criticism and questions,” Dean said.

While Dean said she has seen many signs that Rogers is trying to expand his outreach to Black voters, including television ads and opening an office in Detroit, she questioned whether the Republican nominee’s policies followed suit with the actions of his campaign.

“Everything should be taken seriously. This is not a year where we take anything for granted,” Dean said, noting that she is carefully watching what the Rogers campaign is doing. “He seriously wants to win their vote, but he doesn’t want to make life better for Black people. That’s what really matters.”

吉姆·冯德鲁斯卡/路透社

阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德经常谈到要建立一个全新的、广泛的密歇根州选民联盟。在这个州至关重要的参议院选举中，一个迫在眉睫的问题是，他能否维系现有的联盟——尤其是在对民主党任何胜利都至关重要的非裔选民群体中。

共和党候选人、前众议员迈克·罗杰斯（Mike Rogers）几个月来一直努力争取传统民主党选民的支持，这些选民在埃尔-赛义德（El-Sayed）与众议员海莉·史蒂文斯（Haley Stevens）的激烈初选竞争中没有支持这位进步派前公共卫生官员。

尽管自 2026 年中期选举周期开始以来，密歇根州已在电视广告上花费了超过 2.8 亿美元，广告牌和竞选标语牌也点缀着秋色，但一些政治领导人仍然怀疑，在竞选的最后阶段，黑人选民对埃尔-赛义德是否有足够的热情。

“底特律只要有这么多人倒戈，弗林特也只要有这么多人倒戈，”底特律历史悠久的所罗门王浸信会教堂牧师查尔斯·威廉姆斯二世说道，他用手指比划着大约一英寸的间距，以强调自己的观点。“如果哪怕只有一小部分人不出来投票，你的候选人想要获得最终胜利就会面临巨大的挑战。”

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

密歇根州对于民主党能否在11月3日赢得参议院多数席位至关重要，因为民主党需要净增四个席位才能掌控参议院。如果民主党未能保住即将退休的民主党参议员加里·彼得斯的席位，其获得多数席位的道路将变得更加艰难——而且几乎只能依靠比这个位于中西部北部、历来是政治角力场的州更为保守的州来实现。

在 8 月份的初选中，埃尔-赛义德仅以 1 个百分点的优势击败了史蒂文斯——这场微弱的胜利得益于他在阿拉伯裔美国人和穆斯林社区、年轻选民以及大学城进步人士中的强大支持。

但史蒂文斯也有明显的优势：底特律及其周边地区的黑人选民大多支持她，犹太选民也支持她，他们长期以来对埃尔-赛义德深表担忧，埃尔-赛义德是穆斯林，并且强烈批评以色列在加沙的行动。

在竞选的最后几周，罗杰斯将争取这些选民作为其竞选的核心重点，他希望建立一个比2018年更倾向于共和党的选民联盟。2018年是特朗普总统执政期间的上一次中期选举。那一年，民主党在密歇根州赢得了四场全州范围的选举，每场选举的胜负差距都在7到9个百分点之间。

周二，在底特律经济俱乐部的一个论坛上，罗杰斯吹嘘说，他“建立的联盟对于共和党候选人来说确实非常不寻常”。

他指出，政府计划激励底特律新建住房，将这些建设项目与高中生学徒计划联系起来，并消除该市的“食品沙漠”。他还表示，许多民主党人告诉他，他们担心民主社会主义者在党内的影响力日益增强。

“我们花了很多时间在底特律、弗林特、庞蒂亚克这些黑人人口众多的城市，”他说道。“我认为，如果我们想让我们的州走上正轨，就必须让每个人都参与到它的发展进程中来。”

为了消除民主党人对埃尔-赛义德挥之不去的疑虑，前总统巴拉克·奥巴马将访问密歇根州，并于周六在底特律与埃尔-赛义德和该党州长候选人、密歇根州州务卿乔斯林·本森一起参加集会。

David Guralnick/Pool/路透社

近几周，其他一些知名的黑人民主党人士也访问了密歇根州，其中包括前副总统卡马拉·哈里斯，她与埃尔-赛义德举行了一场以黑人孕产妇保健为主题的圆桌会议。佐治亚州参议员拉斐尔·沃诺克以及国会黑人议员团的几位成员也将与埃尔-赛义德一起参加竞选活动。

“尽管他自认为取得了一些进展，但民众都很聪明，”埃尔-赛义德告诉CNN。“迈克·罗杰斯只不过是唐纳德·特朗普的橡皮图章。他们非常清楚迈克·罗杰斯是什么样的人。”

尽管与底特律各地黑人领袖和选民的对话显示，埃尔-赛义德获得了广泛的支持，但人们也悄然担忧，有关这位候选人背景的质疑是否会削弱其支持率。阿拉伯裔美国人和黑人社区之间由来已久的紧张关系也引发了人们的担忧。

一位不愿透露姓名的知名黑人领袖告诉CNN：“在势均力敌的选战中，哪怕对阿卜杜勒只有一丝怀疑，都可能导致失败。而且这场选战的激烈程度远超预期。”

尽管密歇根州一些杰出的黑人民主党领袖对参议院竞选表示担忧，但埃尔-赛义德（El-Sayed）——他最近几天在密歇根州上半岛（一个人口稀少的地区）进行竞选活动，希望他的民粹主义言论能够削弱共和党传统上强大的优势——却在淡化甚至嘲笑罗杰斯（Rogers）争取黑人选民的努力。

在弗林特——一个黑人占多数的城市——举行的一场竞选集会上，埃尔-赛义德周日下午吸引了数百名支持者。挤满大型酒店会议室的听众中，只有大约十几名黑人，这对于距离大选仅剩两周的民主党竞选活动来说，着实令人惊讶。

Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images

事后，埃尔-赛义德在接受记者采访时表示，他认为没有理由感到担忧。

“你看，当前经济形势最严峻的问题之一就是，人们常常不得不身兼数职，周末也得加班，”他告诉CNN。“我们知道，正是由于像唐纳德·特朗普这样的人制定的政策，黑人受到的影响最为严重。”

在集会上，与他一同出席的还有来自马萨诸塞州的民主党众议员阿亚娜·普雷斯利，她是几位曾与他一起前往竞选的黑人国会议员之一。

“我们对已经建立并将继续建立的关系感到非常自豪，”埃尔-赛义德在谈到他与黑人选民的接触时说道。

当被问及罗杰斯竞选团队在底特律利弗诺伊斯大道开设店面办公室以争取黑人选民支持时，埃尔-赛义德笑着回答。

“我看到他在底特律开了个挺可爱的小办公室，把郊区的朋友们都叫来给他鼓掌。挺不错的，”埃尔-赛义德说。“但他对那些为生计挣扎的人，并没有什么实际的寄语。”

参加了弗林特集会的玛西娅·特纳表示，她对埃尔-赛义德持乐观态度，称他是“在正确的时间出现的正确人选”。但即使是她这番赞扬之词，也凸显了密歇根州黑人社区和阿拉伯社区之间由来已久的紧张关系。

“我很高兴他参选，”特纳说。“我认为人们不再只关注他的宗教信仰，而是把他看作一个希望我们的子孙后代都能过上我们想要的生活的人。”

来自斯特灵海茨的教师兼两个孩子的母亲娜乌拉·埃文斯是一位自豪的黑人共和党人。她出现在一则电视广告中，说道：“我曾投票给巴拉克·奥巴马，但今年，我将投票给迈克·罗杰斯。”

她说自己成长于一个民主党家庭，但自从2008年投票给奥巴马后，她的思想变得更加保守。她认为，在民主党的统治下，学校和社区都没有得到改善，她相信罗杰斯在这两方面提出的计划。

她说，她觉得多年来民主党人一直把黑人选民视为理所当然，所以她花时间在沃伦、特洛伊和斯特灵海茨挨家挨户拜访，试图说服选民和她一起支持罗杰斯。

“选出合适的人至关重要，”埃文斯说。“作为我们社区的黑人，我们要表明我们的选票很重要。我们不会轻易放弃投票权。”

她说，罗杰斯竞选团队应该因在底特律开设办事处而受到赞扬。

“我亲眼看到迈克·罗杰斯走出自己的舒适圈，走进黑人社区，”埃文斯说。“我认为这既务实，也具有象征意义，表明他关心底特律。他本可以在任何地方开设办公室，但他选择了底特律。”

她驳斥了民主党人对罗杰斯最大的批评之一——即他会成为特朗普的橡皮图章。

“这不是总统选举，而是参议员选举，最终将由迈克·罗杰斯自己做出决定，”埃文斯说。“我相信他的决定不会受到其他人的影响。”

周日，昆汀·默里在底特律的一个木匠工会大厅里听完了所有民主党候选人的演讲。他说，他才刚刚开始了解埃尔-赛义德的竞选活动，但他很喜欢他所听到的内容。

“我喜欢他带来的东西——一些新颖的、不同的东西，”木匠默里说。“他的文化背景不同，但当你遇到这样的人时，你会很高兴知道我们拥有相同的兴趣和价值观。”

然而，即使在赞扬中，默里也随意地提到了埃尔-赛义德的文化，而他的文化一直是竞选的核心，在针对他的成长经历和信仰的激烈攻击广告中，这种文化备受关注。

埃尔-赛义德是一名医生，也是一名前公共卫生官员，他的父母从埃及移民到美国，他本人在密歇根州出生长大。

几乎在每一次竞选活动中，他都会简要地解释自己的家族历史，并反驳一些关于他名字的种族歧视言论。特朗普经常贬低他的名字，称他为“穆罕默德·阿卜杜勒·赛义德”。

阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德在市政厅会议上受到与会者的质问，被问及穆斯林兄弟会问题。

罗杰斯试图将埃尔-赛义德与穆斯林兄弟会联系起来——尽管埃尔-赛义德已公开谴责该组织——并把他描绘成同情与伊斯兰恐怖主义相关的利益集团。共和党方面指出，埃尔-赛义德的姐姐曾在推特上发文，描述埃尔-赛义德的生母在20世纪70年代初上大学期间积极参与穆斯林兄弟会的活动。在最近的一次辩论中，罗杰斯还指出，埃尔-赛义德的母亲曾在伊斯兰美国救济会工作，该非营利组织于2004年被美国财政部认定为支持恐怖主义的组织。埃尔-赛义德主要由他的父亲和继母在密歇根州抚养长大。

“我的名字和信仰不是你们买不起汽油的原因。我的名字和信仰也不是你们买不起食品杂货的原因，”埃尔-赛义德在弗林特对支持者们说。“我的名字和信仰也不是你们看不起医生的原因。我的意思是，如果你去看医生，他们很可能也知道我的名字和信仰。”

拥有一家底特律咖啡店并担任密歇根州黑人商业联盟主席的查丽蒂·迪恩表示，她对埃尔-赛义德在她所在的城市所受到的热情感到惊喜。

迪恩说：“底特律比人们想象的要保守得多——要温和得多。我认为他的竞选活动做得非常出色，真正打破了常规，直面问题：‘你们对现状满意吗？你们对永无止境的战争满意吗？’”

迪恩表示，自从在8月份底特律的初选中获得第二名以来，埃尔-赛义德一直在倾听选民的意见——无论是支持者还是持怀疑态度的选民——并努力开展竞选活动以赢得他们的支持。

迪恩说：“他能够回应批评和质疑，这是他获得广泛认可的关键因素之一。”

迪恩表示，她看到了很多迹象表明罗杰斯正在努力扩大对黑人选民的宣传，包括投放电视广告和在底特律开设办公室，但她质疑这位共和党候选人的政策是否与其竞选活动相符。

“所有事情都应该认真对待。今年我们不能掉以轻心，”迪恩说道，并指出她正在密切关注罗杰斯竞选团队的动向。“他确实很想赢得他们的选票，但他并不想改善黑人的生活。这才是真正重要的。”