Countries big or small needed as bridge-builders for a multipolar order: President Tharman

The world has not yet arrived at a multipolar world order and there is a thinning of global leadership as a US-led unipolar world order becomes past, said Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam during a lecture at the Stockholm School of Economics in Sweden on Tuesday (Oct 20).

In the lecture themed "Between unipolar and multipolar worlds: Bridging the gap", he highlighted that the central challenge today is to develop resilience amid a world of radical uncertainty — contributed by the growing geopolitical disorder and the exponential growth of artificial intelligence (AI).

Referring to the US-led world order, he pointed out that Pax America relied on influence, where a majority of nations decided to align themselves with the rules and norms of a global order that was underpinned by the US, which felt it was in their national interests to do so.

And while the belief and practice of enlightened self-interest have given way to a more narrow and immediate calculation of national interests, the world has not arrived at a multipolar world order.

Explaining his view, President Tharman noted that while there are now "more poles", there is a thinning of global leadership.

"Nor are we assured of arriving at a semblance of order — a system with the capacity to address the challenges that nations big and small face, not least the major powers themselves — the common challenges of preserving the peace, of tackling climate change, of preventing the next pandemic, and building the guardrails to allow AI to progress safely."

He cautioned that the simple fact of multipolarity does not assure the world of a system.

Instead, there could be growing suspicion, friction or conflicts, weaponisation of trade and materials, and a steady grind into a world of divided blocs.

To arrive at a semblance of order, states who can act as bridge builders are needed, said President Tharman, adding that they can come from among nations, small, medium and large.

But what they can do, he explained, is the ability to bring regions together in a world where trade and investment is in danger of fragmenting, finding common interests between the global North and the global South.

Such states can also construct coalitions for bolder and more urgent climate action, prevent and prepare for pandemics, and work together to guard against the worst harms that AI may bring.

They are also needed to help preserve economic networks integral to both the US and China, maintaining overlapping networks and supply chains, that will include the two countries — avoiding the drift towards bifurcation.

Then, there would also be states who can help develop the plurilateral coalitions towards a new, reformed multilateralism.

Meanwhile, the work on reforms to the existing multilateral institutions cannot stop.

"We have to work on changing those decision-making rules and norms. But in the meantime, we have to move ahead through coalitions that work in parallel with the multilateral institutions," President Tharman said.

Regardless of nation's size

Turning to the example of Sweden, he pointed to how the late Daj Hammarskjold, an economist and diplomat who served as the second UN secretary-general between 1953 and 91961, had turned to the General Assembly for consensus to build the first peacekeeping force after the Suez crisis.

In the present, Sweden has also been building coalitions to support planet health.

It is also working with other Nordic countries to help Africa make a green transition in ways that supports economic development.

Then, there is Australia, which together with Japan, resuscitated the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) after the US dropped out.

Singapore, by no means a middle power, has also worked actively in advancing cooperation between the CPTPP and European Union (EU), and between ASEAN and the EU.

The city state also finds ways in which the voices of small states of the United Nations are heard, such as through the Forum of Small States.

Similarly, Ghana, which does not see itself as a middle power, has built new coalitions to support reforms in global health, through the Accra Reset initiative, putting responsibility on nations themselves, establishing that sovereignty has to shape health strategy.

US, China involvement

But no system of world order is possible without the US and China — both integral to that order — President Tharman pointed out.

"The largest difficulty in achieving a stable global order lies in the fact that we have two major powers which are not only interdependent economically, but are close to being peers in competition. Very different from the Cold War era."

This would require the two countries to view interdependence and competition not as a threat to be eliminated, but a relationship to be managed, especially to constrain weaponisation of materials and technology.

He suggested that this interdependence will be a source of prosperity for both countries, if managed well, and provide a better basis for peace and stability globally.

Meanwhile, they would also have to recognise that there is no finishing line in the AI race, while resolving their respective domestic imbalances.

President Tharman also raised the urgent need to address climate action, and the need for new and invigorated social compacts.

On the latter, he emphasised that the reality of a world of rapid technological change and global interdependence mean that there will be groups of people who lose out, even while societies have prospered as a whole.

"It has to be the task of democracies and good governance to support groups that lose out early. The nation as a whole may be doing well; the economy as a whole will be doing well.

"But the perceived losses of those who have their jobs and communities displaced is real, and often has greater impact on the body politic that the widely dispersed benefits enjoyed by the majority."

President Tharman stressed that markets do not relieve these problems quickly, and often not at all.

This means that the task of the government is not to let such problems fester, and to intervene to help those displaced.

And while aggregates like gross domestic product (GDP), overall income growth, employment rates do matter, these indicators are not all that matter in economic life, he said.

"Losses matter, even if most people gain. We must avoid at all costs, a K-shaped economy and society as we move into an AI era," President Tharman added.

新加坡总统尚达曼周二（10月20日）在瑞典斯德哥尔摩经济学院发表演讲时表示，世界尚未达到多极世界秩序，随着美国主导的单极世界秩序的结束，全球领导力正在减弱。

在题为“在单极世界和多极世界之间：弥合差距”的演讲中，他强调，当今的核心挑战是在充满极端不确定性的世界中培养韧性——这种不确定性是由日益严重的地缘政治混乱和人工智能（AI）的指数级增长造成的。

他提到美国主导的世界秩序时指出，“美国治下的和平”依靠影响力，大多数国家决定遵守以美国为基础的全球秩序的规则和规范，因为美国认为这样做符合其国家利益。

尽管开明的利己主义的信念和实践已经让位于对国家利益更为狭隘和直接的考量，但世界尚未达到多极世界秩序。

尚达曼总统在解释他的观点时指出，虽然现在“两极更多了”，但全球领导力却在减弱。

“我们也不能保证能够建立起某种秩序——一个能够应对大小国家（尤其是主要大国自身）所面临的挑战的体系——这些挑战包括维护和平、应对气候变化、防止下一次大流行病，以及建立保障措施，使人工智能能够安全发展。”

他告诫说，多极化这一事实本身并不能保证世界会有一个统一的体系。

相反，可能会出现日益加深的猜疑、摩擦或冲突，贸易和物资被武器化，以及世界逐渐陷入分裂集团的局面。

尚达曼总统表示，要恢复秩序，需要一些能够充当桥梁搭建者的国家，这些国家可以来自各个国家，无论大小。

但他解释说，他们能够做的，是在一个贸易和投资面临分裂危险的世界里，将各个地区团结起来，在全球北方和全球南方之间找到共同利益。

这些国家还可以建立联盟，采取更大胆、更紧迫的气候行动，预防和应对流行病，并共同努力防范人工智能可能带来的最严重危害。

它们对于维护对美国和中国都至关重要的经济网络也必不可少，维持两国重叠的网络和供应链，从而避免走向分裂。

此外，还有一些国家可以帮助发展多边联盟，朝着新的、改革后的多边主义迈进。

与此同时，对现有多边机构的改革工作不能停止。

“我们必须努力改变这些决策规则和规范。但与此同时，我们必须通过与多边机构并行运作的联盟来推进工作，”尚达曼总统说。

无论国家大小

他以瑞典为例，指出已故的经济学家兼外交官戴·哈马舍尔德（Daj Hammarskjold）在1953年至1961年担任第二任联合国秘书长后，是如何在苏伊士运河危机后向联合国大会寻求共识，以建立第一支维和部队的。

目前，瑞典也一直在建立联盟来支持地球健康。

它还与其他北欧国家合作，帮助非洲以支持经济发展的方式实现绿色转型。

此外，还有澳大利亚，它与日本一起，在美国退出后，重新激活了《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（CPTPP）。

新加坡虽然绝非中等强国，但也积极致力于推进CPTPP与欧盟之间以及东盟与欧盟之间的合作。

这个城邦国家还通过小国论坛等途径，让联合国小国的声音被听到。

同样，不认为自己是中等强国的加纳，通过“阿克拉重置”倡议，建立了新的联盟来支持全球卫生改革，将责任赋予各国自身，确立了主权必须塑造卫生战略。

美国和中国的参与

尚达曼总统指出，如果没有美国和中国——这两个国家都是世界秩序不可或缺的一部分——任何世界秩序体系都不可能存在。

“实现稳定的全球秩序的最大困难在于，我们有两个主要大国，它们不仅在经济上相互依存，而且在竞争中也几乎势均力敌。这与冷战时期截然不同。”

这将要求两国将相互依存和竞争视为需要管理的关系，而不是需要消除的威胁，尤其是在限制材料和技术武器化方面。

他认为，如果管理得当，这种相互依存关系将成为两国繁荣的源泉，并为全球和平与稳定提供更好的基础。

与此同时，他们还必须认识到人工智能竞赛没有终点，同时解决各自国内的不平衡问题。

尚达曼总统还提出了应对气候行动的迫切需要，以及建立新的、更有活力的社会契约的必要性。

关于后者，他强调，快速的技术变革和全球相互依存的世界现实意味着，即使社会整体繁荣发展，也会有一部分人处于劣势。

“民主政体和良好治理的责任在于支持那些早期处于劣势的群体。国家整体可能发展良好；整体经济也可能发展良好。”

“但是，那些失去工作和社区的人们所感受到的损失是真实存在的，而且这种损失对政治体制的影响往往比大多数人所享有的广泛利益更大。”

尚达曼总统强调，市场并不能迅速缓解这些问题，而且往往根本无法缓解。

这意味着政府的任务不是让这些问题恶化，而是要介入帮助那些流离失所的人。

他表示，虽然国内生产总值（GDP）、总体收入增长、就业率等总量指标很重要，但这些指标并不是经济生活中唯一重要的因素。

“即使大多数人受益，损失也很重要。在我们迈向人工智能时代之际，我们必须不惜一切代价避免出现K型经济和社会结构，”尚达曼总统补充道。