Are the UK, France being pulled into the Saudi-Houthi conflict?

The European states say their support for Riyadh is ‘defensive’, but analysts warn Houthi reaction may complicate that.

Typhoon fighter jets operate from a British air station in Coningsby, UK, October 21 [Ryan Jenkinson/Getty Images]

France and the United Kingdom have both moved to deploy military assets to Saudi Arabia, deepening their defence ties with the kingdom as its conflict with the Houthis, an armed group also known as Ansar Allah (Arabic for Supporters of God), in Yemen escalates.

Paris last week said it had begun sending assets to Saudi Arabia as part of a previously announced agreement, after President Emmanuel Macron committed to deploying troops and air defence systems to help protect the Red Sea port city of Yanbu, which has come under attack from the Iran-backed Houthis .

list 1 of 2 Egyptian parliament delays vote on military support for Saudi Arabia

list 2 of 2 UK to deploy Typhoon jets to help defend Saudi Arabia from Houthi attacks

The UK , for its part, on Tuesday announced plans to deploy fighter jets to help shield Saudi Arabia from Houthi attacks.

Both countries stressed that their support would be defensive.

Analysts say the European moves serve several geopolitical purposes: protecting Saudi oil exports that are important to European energy markets, shoring up their strategic alliance in the Gulf amid US reluctance to offer direct military assistance to Saudi Arabia, and strengthening deterrence against future Houthi attacks.

But the deployments also carry significant risks, many analysts say, potentially drawing the two European states more directly into the protracted Saudi-Houthi conflict.

“If insufficiently deterred, the Houthis may decide that the moment is ripe to test the resolve and resilience of Saudi Arabia’s defensive posture, and attempt to draw Saudi Arabia’s allies even further into the Yemen-Saudi confrontation,” Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow for Middle East Security at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told Al Jazeera.

‘Support during crisis’

The British and French military support measures come as Saudi Arabia faces a sustained Houthi missile and drone campaign against it , including targeting energy and transport infrastructure.

Houthi attacks targeting Saudi airports in Riyadh and Abha this month have killed 19 people and injured more than 300 others, according to the Saudi-led coalition spokesman Turki al-Maliki.

Addressing the UK’s stepped-up military support for Saudi Arabia, UK Defence Secretary Wes Streeting called recent Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia “absolutely despicable”, specifically condemning the group’s targeting of Riyadh airport.

The UK Ministry of Defence said it would deploy Typhoon fighter jets to fly “defensive counter air missions” in Saudi Arabia, send UK military advisers to work with Saudi staff officers and provide an A400M transport aircraft to help move defence material within the kingdom.

French support for Saudi Arabia would include soldiers, radars and defence systems, Macron has said, without detailing the scale of the support.

Urban Coningham, a research fellow at RUSI, noted differences in the British and French roles, with the French mainly limited to protecting Saudi export infrastructure. The British, by contrast, will conduct “defensive patrols where they would shoot down incoming missiles or drones” in Saudi Arabia, as well as provide air-to-air refuelling support for Saudi bombers and jets heading into Yemeni airspace, he said.

Camille Lons, policy fellow and deputy head of the Paris office at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said France is limited in what it can provide to Saudi Arabia, particularly given the demands on European defences amid the war in Ukraine. Still, Paris sees its assistance as a way to “show support [for Saudi Arabia] in times of crisis, and a way to deepen the defence partnership”, Lons told Al Jazeera.

‘Freeing up’ Saudi aircraft

Saudi Arabia will welcome the European deployments, as it has struggled to translate some of its security partnerships into high-level military support.

In September, US President Donald Trump rejected multiple Saudi requests to participate in strikes on the Houthis, agreeing only to provide intelligence and targeting support, the news agency Reuters cited informed sources saying.

Turkiye and Pakistan have committed to “collective deterrence measures”, including potential troop deployments, under the newly signed Mecca defence pact with Saudi Arabia, but the agreement has yet to be ratified in Turkiye .

Egypt’s parliament has also postponed a vote that would authorise its armed forces to support Saudi Arabia.

Nawaf Obaid, a senior fellow at King’s College War Studies Department, called the UK and French deployments “militarily valuable and politically significant”, saying they could help shield the kingdom’s sprawling territory from persistent Houthi air attacks while giving Riyadh more room to focus its own assets on offensive operations.

“The British Typhoons can reinforce Saudi air defences and, crucially, free up Saudi Eurofighters for offensive operations,” Obaid told Al Jazeera. “France’s contribution is particularly important for protecting Yanbu.”

Saudi Arabia “does not need foreign assistance to conduct air strikes”, Obaid added, noting that the kingdom has its own powerful combat aircraft fleet. “What it needs is additional defensive coverage across its enormous territory, particularly for critical energy infrastructure.”

Ozcelik said the recent British move was “not insignificant”, but its deterrent impact was not immediately clear.

“The question remains whether the UK air missions will move the dial in deterring sustained Houthi attacks while Saudi air defences and interceptor stockpiles are stretched,” said Ozcelik. “The difference between deterrence and interdiction is an important one.”

‘Dragged into protracted conflict’

What also remains to be seen is whether the UK and France will maintain a purely defensive posture – and whether the Houthis will recognise that distinction at all.

Coningham said the Houthis could interpret European military involvement, especially the UK’s air-to-air support for Saudi bombers and jets, as “offensive” rather than defensive, leading the group to view those countries as belligerents and their forces as targets.

As a result, Coningham said, the Houthis could strike at British forces stationed in the region – whether in Saudi Arabia or elsewhere, such as Cyprus – or reverse their position on allowing free transit to non-Saudi vessels, including European ships, in the Bab al-Mandeb strait – a key maritime route in the world.

Another potential flashpoint would be a Houthi attack in Saudi Arabia that kills British or French personnel, analysts noted.

“Whether it’s a direct attack planned by the Houthis or collateral damage, if the British or French have any casualties … then there becomes a pointed debate in those countries as to whether they should then retaliate,” said Coningham.

Ozcelik said the UK could face pressure to play a more offensive role in the event of a “mass civilian casualty event” caused by the Houthis or “debilitating attacks on Saudi’s energy infrastructure”, although London would likely view such a scenario as a “last resort”.

“Neither the Mecca signatories nor the UK are inclined to get dragged into deeper and likely protracted conflict inside Yemen,” said Ozcelik.

欧洲各国表示，他们对利雅得的支持是“防御性的”，但分析人士警告说，胡塞武装的反应可能会使情况变得复杂。

10月21日，台风战斗机从英国康宁斯比的一个英国空军基地起飞执行任务。[Ryan Jenkinson/Getty Images]

随着沙特阿拉伯与也门胡塞武装（又称安萨尔真主，阿拉伯语意为“真主的支持者”）的冲突升级，法国和英国都已向沙特阿拉伯部署军事力量，加深了与沙特的防务关系。

上周，巴黎方面表示，根据此前宣布的协议，已开始向沙特阿拉伯输送资产。此前，法国总统马克龙承诺部署军队和防空系统，以帮助保护红海港口城市延布，该市一直受到伊朗支持的胡塞武装的袭击。

埃及议会推迟就向沙特阿拉伯提供军事支持的投票（共2条，第1条）

英国将部署台风战斗机帮助沙特阿拉伯抵御胡塞武装的袭击（列表2/2）

英国方面周二宣布计划部署战斗机，帮助沙特阿拉伯抵御胡塞武装的袭击。

两国都强调，他们的支持是防御性的。

分析人士称，欧洲此举有多重地缘政治目的：保护对欧洲能源市场至关重要的沙特石油出口；在美国不愿向沙特阿拉伯提供直接军事援助的情况下，巩固其在海湾地区的战略联盟；以及加强对未来胡塞武装袭击的威慑。

但许多分析人士表示，这些部署也存在重大风险，可能会使这两个欧洲国家更直接地卷入旷日持久的沙特-胡塞冲突。

“如果威慑力不足，胡塞武装可能会认为时机成熟，可以试探沙特阿拉伯的防御姿态的决心和韧性，并试图将沙特阿拉伯的盟友进一步拖入也门-沙特对抗之中，”皇家联合军种研究所 (RUSI) 中东安全高级研究员布尔库·奥兹切利克 (Burcu Ozcelik) 告诉半岛电视台。

“危机期间的支持”

英国和法国采取军事援助措施之际，沙特阿拉伯正面临胡塞武装持续不断的导弹和无人机袭击，其中包括针对能源和交通基础设施的攻击。

据沙特领导的联军发言人图尔基·马利基称，本月胡塞武装对利雅得和艾卜哈的沙特机场发动的袭击已造成 19 人死亡，300 多人受伤。

英国国防大臣韦斯·斯特里廷在谈到英国加大对沙特阿拉伯的军事支持时，称胡塞武装最近在沙特阿拉伯发动的袭击“绝对卑鄙”，并特别谴责该组织以利雅得机场为目标的袭击。

英国国防部表示，将部署台风战斗机在沙特阿拉伯执行“防御性反空袭任务”，派遣英国军事顾问与沙特参谋人员合作，并提供一架A400M运输机帮助在沙特境内运输国防物资。

马克龙曾表示，法国对沙特阿拉伯的支持将包括士兵、雷达和防御系统，但他没有详细说明支持的规模。

英国皇家联合军种研究所（RUSI）研究员厄本·康宁汉姆指出，英法两国在沙特行动中扮演的角色有所不同。法国的主要任务是保护沙特的出口基础设施。相比之下，英国将在沙特阿拉伯境内进行“防御性巡逻，击落来袭的导弹或无人机”，并为飞往也门领空的沙特轰炸机和战机提供空中加油支持。

欧洲对外关系委员会政策研究员兼巴黎办事处副主任卡米尔·隆斯表示，鉴于乌克兰战争给欧洲防务带来的巨大压力，法国能够向沙特阿拉伯提供的援助有限。隆斯告诉半岛电视台，尽管如此，巴黎仍将援助视为“在危机时刻表达（对沙特阿拉伯的）支持，以及深化防务伙伴关系的一种方式”。

“释放”沙特飞机

沙特阿拉伯将欢迎欧洲的部署，因为它一直难以将一些安全伙伴关系转化为高级别的军事支持。

据路透社援引知情人士消息称，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普9月份拒绝了沙特阿拉伯多次提出的参与打击胡塞武装的请求，仅同意提供情报和目标定位支持。

根据与沙特阿拉伯新签署的《麦加防务条约》，土耳其和巴基斯坦承诺采取“集体威慑措施”，包括潜在的部队部署，但该协议尚未在土耳其获得批准。

埃及议会也推迟了一项授权其武装部队支持沙特阿拉伯的投票。

伦敦国王学院战争研究系高级研究员纳瓦夫·奥贝德称英国和法国的部署“具有军事价值和政治意义”，并表示这些部署可以帮助保护沙特王国广袤的领土免受胡塞武装持续的空袭，同时让利雅得有更多空间集中自身资源进行进攻行动。

奥贝德告诉半岛电视台：“英国的台风战斗机可以加强沙特的防空能力，更重要的是，还能让沙特的台风战斗机腾出手来执行进攻性作战任务。法国的贡献对于保护延布尤为重要。”

奥贝德补充说，沙特阿拉伯“不需要外国援助来进行空袭”，并指出沙特拥有自己强大的作战飞机机队。“它真正需要的是在其广袤的领土上，特别是关键能源基础设施区域，加强防御覆盖。”

奥兹切利克表示，英国最近的举动“意义重大”，但其威慑作用尚不明确。

奥兹切利克表示：“问题仍然是，在沙特防空系统和拦截弹储备捉襟见肘的情况下，英国的空中行动能否有效遏制胡塞武装的持续袭击。威慑和拦截之间的区别至关重要。”

“被拖入旷日持久的冲突”

此外，英国和法国是否会保持纯粹的防御姿态，以及胡塞武装是否会承认这种区别，还有待观察。

康宁汉姆表示，胡塞武装可能会将欧洲的军事介入，特别是英国对沙特轰炸机和喷气式飞机的空对空支援，解读为“进攻”而非防御，导致该组织将这些国家视为交战国，将其军队视为攻击目标。

康宁汉姆表示，因此，胡塞武装可能会袭击驻扎在该地区的英国军队——无论是在沙特阿拉伯还是其他地方，例如塞浦路斯——或者改变其允许非沙特船只（包括欧洲船只）自由通过曼德海峡（世界上一条重要的海上航道）的立场。

分析人士指出，另一个潜在的爆发点是沙特阿拉伯境内胡塞武装发动袭击，造成英国或法国人员伤亡。

“无论是胡塞武装策划的直接袭击，还是附带损害，如果英国或法国方面有任何人员伤亡……那么这些国家就会就是否应该进行报复展开激烈的辩论，”康宁汉姆说。

奥兹切利克表示，如果胡塞武装造成“大规模平民伤亡事件”或“对沙特能源基础设施的破坏性袭击”，英国可能会面临发挥更具进攻性作用的压力，尽管伦敦可能会将这种情况视为“最后的手段”。

奥兹切利克说：“无论是麦加条约的签署国还是英国，都不愿被卷入也门内部更深、可能旷日持久的冲突。”