Where Trump sees a deal, Putin sees a win for Russia

If only Donald Trump were President of Russia, he would surely agree a quick and easy deal to end the brutal Ukraine war , even – he might suggest – in as little as 24 hours.

It is, from Trump’s point of view, a no-brainer.

Not only would a resolution to the grinding conflict, now in its fifth year, halt the killing of what Trump refers to as the thousands of “young, beautiful kids” being slaughtered every month on the front lines, but it would – crucially – also be immensely profitable.

Sanctions on Moscow could be swept away while lucrative trade deals would inevitably ensue. Peace and prosperity, in other words, would prevail.

But, of course, Trump is not the President of Russia. That would be President Vladimir Putin , and the actual Kremlin strongman appears to have very little interest in compromising his stated war aims in Ukraine, either for the sake of Russian and Ukrainian lives or even for billions of dollars more in his state coffers.

It is a fundamental misunderstanding that has driven the Trump administration’s fruitless efforts to broker an end to the fighting, and which was again on show during the latest critical meeting in St. Petersburg between Trump’s business buddy-turned-top negotiator, Steve Witkoff, and Putin himself.

At the table, Putin told Witkoff he was “curious” about the outcome of meetings in Norway the day before, where officials from the US, Europe and NATO huddled with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine to hammer out new potential peace proposals, including economic incentives for Moscow.

Later, a top Kremlin aide confirmed Trump’s envoy briefed the Russian leader on the discussions, before adding, inevitably, that “in truth, these contained little of actual value for resolving the Ukrainian crisis.”

It was an entirely predictable outcome from a Kremlin that has stubbornly refused to budge from its hardline positions, including gaining control over the entire Donbas region of eastern Ukraine and a say in Kyiv’s future security arrangements.

Still, the White House may have genuinely hoped the Kremlin would show more willingness to compromise, especially after Trump lifted sanctions on Russian diesel exports last week – a politically-driven bid to ease fuel prices in the US ahead of the midterm elections, but also a huge economic boon for Moscow.

Later, Trump announced an (unsuccessful) energy ceasefire that would have compelled Ukraine to halt damaging drone strikes on Russian oil refineries.

Amid the recriminations, during which US intelligence sharing was impacted, Trump also called for a change in the Ukrainian leadership – all music to the Kremlin’s ears.

For Moscow, though, the deals, the incentives, and even the shared disdain for Kyiv are not seen as a cue to play ball and back down, but as a sign that its US strategy is yielding results.

And that strategy, unlike Washington’s, is clear-eyed, with the Kremlin leader understanding what motivates Trump and effortlessly distracting his temperamental opposite number in the White House with the promise of vast economic deals.

More of those were tabled by the Kremlin at the Witkoff meeting in St. Petersburg , where Putin praised the controversial diesel deal before suggesting Russia could also step up exports of crucial fertilizers to the US, and much more.

“We are also discussing different projects such as data centers, projects in energy and energy cooperation,” Kiril Dmitriev, the head of the Russian sovereign wealth fund and a key Kremlin interlocutor with Trump administration officials, said after the three-hour-long talks broke up.

And it’s not just economic baubles that the Kremlin uses to flatter and charm, or to keep a sympathetic ear at the White House.

Putin’s release – ahead of the St. Petersburg meeting – of a 74-year-old US citizen, Stephen Hubbard, held by Russia since being captured in Ukraine in 2022, at the start of Moscow’s full-scale invasion, was cast by a fawning Witkoff as the act of “a humanitarian.”

Hubbard, originally from Michigan, is reported to have suffered acute health problems during his four long years of captivity in a remote Russian penal colony. But his eventual release was lauded by the White House as a sign of Trump’s deal-making prowess and Putin’s deference.

“The United States, out of respect for President Trump, was not required to give anything in return – an unprecedented situation for Russia,” read a statement posted on Trump’s own Truth Social platform.

But it’s unlikely the tough former KGB officer in the Kremlin sees it that way.

如果唐纳德·特朗普是俄罗斯总统，他肯定会同意迅速而轻松地结束残酷的乌克兰战争，甚至——他可能会建议——在短短 24 小时内就达成协议。

从特朗普的角度来看，这根本无需考虑。

这场已经持续五年之久的旷日持久的冲突，如果能够得到解决，不仅可以阻止特朗普所说的每月在前线被屠杀的数千名“年轻漂亮的孩子”，而且——至关重要的是——还能带来巨大的利益。

对莫斯科的制裁可能会被取消，而利润丰厚的贸易协定也必然随之而来。换句话说，和平与繁荣将会到来。

当然，特朗普不是俄罗斯总统。俄罗斯总统是弗拉基米尔·普京，而这位克里姆林宫的真正强人似乎对在乌克兰的战争目标上做出妥协毫无兴趣，无论是为了俄罗斯和乌克兰人民的生命，还是为了国家金库中更多的数十亿美元。

正是这种根本性的误解导致了特朗普政府为结束冲突而做出的徒劳努力，而这种误解在特朗普的商业伙伴、现任首席谈判代表史蒂夫·威特科夫与普京本人在圣彼得堡举行的最近一次关键会晤中再次显露出来。

在餐桌上，普京告诉维特科夫，他对前一天在挪威举行的会议结果“很感兴趣”。在挪威，美国、欧洲和北约的官员与乌克兰总统泽连斯基举行会晤，敲定新的潜在和平方案，包括向莫斯科提供经济激励。

后来，克里姆林宫一位高级助手证实，特朗普的特使向俄罗斯领导人汇报了这些讨论，然后不出所料地补充说，“事实上，这些讨论对解决乌克兰危机几乎没有任何实际价值。”

对于一直顽固拒绝在强硬立场上让步的克里姆林宫来说，这是一个完全可以预见的结局，其强硬立场包括控制乌克兰东部的整个顿巴斯地区，以及在基辅未来的安全安排中拥有发言权。

不过，白宫或许​​真心希望克里姆林宫能够表现出更大的妥协意愿，尤其是在特朗普上周取消对俄罗斯柴油出口的制裁之后——此举是出于政治动机，旨在中期选举前降低美国的燃油价格，但对莫斯科来说也是一个巨大的经济利好。

后来，特朗普宣布了一项（未成功的）能源停火协议，该协议将迫使乌克兰停止对俄罗斯炼油厂进行破坏性无人机袭击。

在双方互相指责、美国情报共享受到影响之际，特朗普还呼吁乌克兰更换领导层——这正合克里姆林宫的心意。

但对莫斯科而言，这些协议、激励措施，甚至对基辅的共同蔑视，都不被视为妥协和退让的信号，而是其对美战略正在取得成效的标志。

与华盛顿的策略不同，克里姆林宫的策略是清醒的，克里姆林宫领导人了解特朗普的动机，并毫不费力地用大规模经济协议的承诺来分散白宫里这位脾气暴躁的对手的注意力。

在圣彼得堡举行的维特科夫会议上，克里姆林宫提出了更多类似的方案。普京在会上赞扬了备受争议的柴油交易，并暗示俄罗斯还可以加大对美国关键化肥的出口力度，等等。

“我们还在讨论不同的项目，例如数据中心、能源项目和能源合作，”俄罗斯主权财富基金负责人、克里姆林宫与特朗普政府官员的重要对话者基里尔·德米特里耶夫在长达三个小时的会谈结束后表示。

克里姆林宫用来奉承、讨好或博取白宫好感的，不仅仅是经济上的花招。

在圣彼得堡会议召开前夕，普京释放了 74 岁的美国公民斯蒂芬·哈伯德。哈伯德自 2022 年莫斯科全面入侵乌克兰之初在乌克兰被捕以来一直被俄罗斯关押。对此，谄媚的维特科夫将其描述为“人道主义”行为。

据报道，原籍密歇根州的哈伯德在俄罗斯偏远监狱被囚禁四年期间，健康状况急剧恶化。但他的最终获释被白宫誉为特朗普斡旋能力和普京示好的标志。

“出于对特朗普总统的尊重，美国无需做出任何回报——这对俄罗斯来说是前所未有的局面，”特朗普自己的“真相社交”平台上发布的一份声明写道。

但克里姆林宫里这位强硬的前克格勃官员不太可能这么想。