France’s military is being ousted from more African countries

DAKAR, Senegal — It’s been a tumultuous month for France and its relationship with former colonies in Africa, as its influence on the continent faces the biggest challenge in decades.

As Paris was devising a new military strategy that would sharply reduce its permanent troop presence in Africa, two of its closest allies struck a double blow.

The government of Chad, considered France’s most stable and loyal partner in Africa, announced on Nov. 28 it was ending defense cooperation to redefine its sovereignty.

And in an interview published hours later by Le Monde, Senegal’s new president said it was “obvious” that soon French soldiers wouldn’t be on Senegalese soil.

“Just because the French have been here since the slavery period doesn’t mean it’s impossible to do otherwise,” President Bassirou Diomaye Faye said.

The announcements came as France was making efforts to revive waning influence on the continent. Foreign minister Jean-Noël Barrot was completing a visit to Chad and Ethiopia, and President Emmanuel Macron for the first time had recognized the killing of as many as 400 West African soldiers by the French Army in 1944.

French authorities stayed silent for almost 24 hours after Chad’s announcement, finally saying they were in “close dialogue” on the future of the partnership.

“Chad’s decision marks the final nail in the coffin of France’s post-colonial military dominance in the entire Sahel region,” said Mucahid Durmaz, a senior analyst at global risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft, referring to the arid region south of the Sahara.

The decisions by Senegal and Chad “are part of the wider structural transformation in the region’s engagement with France, in which Paris political and military influence continues to diminish,” Durmaz added.

They follow the ousting of French forces in recent years by military-led governments in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, where local sentiments turned sour following years of French forces fighting alongside local ones in the face of stubborn Islamic extremist insurgencies.

What is France’s new strategy in Africa?

Jean-Marie Bockel, Macron’s personal envoy for Africa, last month presented to Macron his report on the evolution of the French military presence in Africa.

It was part of the “renewal of our partnership with African countries” that Macron announced in a 2017 speech in Burkina Faso in the early days of his presidency.

The details of Bockel’s report have not been made public. But three French top officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive talks with the concerned countries, said France aimed for a sharp reduction of its military in all its bases in Africa except the Horn of Africa nation of Djibouti — where Macron is expected to travel in the coming days.

The officials said it doesn’t mean France would necessarily reduce military cooperation but instead would respond to needs expressed by countries. It could mean providing more specific training in airspace surveillance or drones and other aircraft. France also could deploy troops on a temporary basis.

The officials declined to confirm numbers of troop reductions but called it significant.

Children gather around a French Sagay tank positioned overlooking the bridge crossing the Niger river at the entrance of Gao in 2013. (Jerome Delay/AP)

The French army earlier this year also set up a command for Africa, similar to the U.S. AFRICOM. Newly appointed commander Pascal Ianni specializes in influence and information warfare — a need highlighted by Russia’s growing presence in Africa.

“You can carry on your military cooperation like many countries do. But the idea of having permanent military bases, which then can be used as political ammunition against you and spun up in kind of a disinformation war, is maybe not the best way of going about things," said Will Brown, a senior policy fellow at the European Center for Foreign Relations.

Meanwhile, France is trying to boost its economic presence in Africa’s anglophone countries like Nigeria, analysts said. Already, its two biggest trading partners on the continent are Nigeria and South Africa.

At the time of Chad’s announcement, Macron was hosting talks with Nigerian President Bola Tinubu.

Where does France have troops in West Africa, and why?

Since the independence of French colonies in Africa, France has maintained a policy of economic, political and military sway dubbed Françafrique, which included having thousands of permanent troops in the region.

France still has 600 troops in Ivory Coast, 350 in Senegal and 350 in Gabon, as well as around 1,500 in Djibouti. It has had 1,000 troops in Chad.

France’s defense ministry said the role of French troops in Africa is to train local soldiers and reinforce their capacities to fight extremism, mainly in peacekeeping, intelligence and logistics. But critics say keeping boots on the ground also has allowed Paris to retain influence and protect political regimes favorable to France.

“The countries of Francophone Africa want a change in the nature of this relationship," said Gilles Yabi, head of the West Africa Citizen Think Tank.

Why are West African countries expelling French troops?

Growing anti-French sentiment has led to street protests in several West and North African countries, while governments that gained power on pledges of redefining relationships with the West say ties with France have not benefited the population. They want to explore options with Russia, China, Turkey and other powers.

Chad’s President Mahamat Deby “would not have made this decision if he did not have security guarantees from another actor,” Brown said. “We know he’s received serious support from the United Arab Emirates, who are very interested in what’s going on in neighboring Sudan and Darfur. We know that Turkey also made some outreach.”

Chad borders four countries with Russian military presence. In January, Deby traveled to Moscow to reinforce relations with the “partner country.”

Military leaders of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso who expelled the French military have moved closer to Russia, which has mercenaries deployed across the Sahel who have been accused of abuses against civilians.

But the security situation has worsened in those countries, with increasing numbers of extremist attacks and civilian deaths from both armed groups and government forces. Over the first six months of this year, 3,064 civilians were killed, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, a 25% increase over the previous six months.

It is impossible to say whether the departure of French forces led to the increased violence. But it created a “huge security vacuum,” said analyst Shaantanu Shankar with the Economist Intelligence Unit, adding that it cannot be filled by Russia. Troops from the Russian private military company Wagner are being financed by the junta governments with fewer financial resources, he said.

塞内加尔达喀尔——对于法国及其与非洲前殖民地的关系而言，过去一个月可谓动荡不安，法国在非洲大陆的影响力正面临数十年来最大的挑战。

正当巴黎制定一项新的军事战略，大幅削减其在非洲的常驻部队时，它最亲密的两个盟友给予了它双重打击。

乍得政府被认为是法国在非洲最稳定、最忠诚的伙伴，该国政府于 11 月 28 日宣布终止防务合作，以重新定义其主权。

在几个小时后《世界报》发表的一篇采访中，塞内加尔新总统表示，法国士兵很快将不会出现在塞内加尔的土地上，这是“显而易见的”。

“法国人从奴隶制时期就一直生活在这里，但这并不意味着他们不可能以其他方式行事，”总统巴希鲁·迪奥马耶·法耶说道。

这些声明发布之际，法国正努力重振其在非洲大陆日渐衰落的影响力。外交部长让-诺埃尔·巴罗刚刚结束对乍得和埃塞俄比亚的访问，而总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙首次承认了1944年法国军队杀害多达400名西非士兵的行为。

在乍得宣布这一消息后，法国当局保持沉默近 24 小时，最终表示他们正在就伙伴关系的未来进行“密切对话”。

“乍得的决定标志着法国在整个萨赫勒地区后殖民时代的军事统治的彻底终结，”全球风险咨询公司 Verisk Maplecroft 的高级分析师 Mucahid Durmaz 表示，他指的是撒哈拉沙漠以南的干旱地区。

杜尔马兹补充说，塞内加尔和乍得的决定“是该地区与法国交往中更广泛的结构性转变的一部分，在这种转变中，巴黎的政治和军事影响力持续减弱”。

近年来，法国军队先后被尼日尔、马里和布基纳法索的军方领导的政府驱逐。多年来，法国军队与当地军队并肩作战，对抗顽固的伊斯兰极端主义叛乱，导致当地民众情绪恶化。

法国在非洲的新战略是什么？

上个月，马克龙的非洲事务特使让-马里·博克尔向马克龙提交了关于法国在非洲军事存在演变情况的报告。

这是马克龙在其总统任期初期于 2017 年在布基纳法索发表讲话时宣布的“重振与非洲国家伙伴关系”的一部分。

博克尔报告的细节尚未公开。但三位不愿透露姓名的法国高级官员表示，法国的目标是大幅削减其在非洲所有军事基地的驻军，但位于非洲之角的吉布提除外——马克龙预计将在未来几天访问吉布提。这些官员表示，法国此举是为了讨论与相关国家的敏感会谈。

官员们表示，这并不意味着法国一定会减少军事合作，而是会根据各国的需求做出回应。这可能包括提供更具体的空域监视、无人机和其他飞行器方面的培训。法国也可能临时部署军队。

官员们拒绝证实裁军人数，但称裁员幅度很大。

2013年，孩子们聚集在加奥入口处横跨尼日尔河的大桥旁，旁边是一辆法国萨盖坦克。（杰罗姆·德莱/美联社）

今年早些时候，法国陆军也设立了非洲司令部，类似于美国的非洲司令部。新任命的司令帕斯卡尔·伊安尼专长于影响力战和信息战——俄罗斯在非洲日益增长的影响力凸显了这一需求。

“你可以像许多国家一样继续进行军事合作。但是，建立永久性军事基地，然后这些基地可能会被用作攻击你的政治弹药，并被煽动起来发动虚假信息战，这可能不是最好的做法，”欧洲对外关系中心高级政策研究员威尔·布朗说。

分析人士指出，与此同时，法国正试图提升其在尼日利亚等非洲英语国家的经济影响力。目前，尼日利亚和南非已经是法国在非洲大陆最大的两个贸易伙伴。

在乍得宣布参选时，马克龙正在与尼日利亚总统博拉·蒂努布举行会谈。

法国在西非哪些地区驻扎军队？原因是什么？

自法国在非洲的殖民地独立以来，法国一直奉行被称为“法兰西非洲”的经济、政治和军事统治政策，其中包括在该地区驻扎数千名常驻军队。

法国目前在科特迪瓦仍驻有600名士兵，在塞内加尔和加蓬各驻有350名士兵，在吉布提驻有约1500名士兵。此前，法国在乍得曾驻有1000名士兵。

法国国防部表示，法国军队在非洲的作用是训练当地士兵，并加强其打击极端主义的能力，主要涉及维和、情报和后勤保障。但批评人士指出，法国军队在非洲的驻扎也使巴黎得以维持影响力，并保护那些对法国有利的政治政权。

“法语非洲国家希望改变这种关系的性质，”西非公民智库负责人吉勒·亚比说。

西非国家为何驱逐法国军队？

日益高涨的反法情绪引发了多个西非和北非国家的街头抗议，而那些曾承诺重塑与西方关系的政府则表示，与法国的关系并未给民众带来益处。他们希望探索与俄罗斯、中国、土耳其和其他国家建立关系的可能性。

布朗说，乍得总统马哈马特·代比“如果没有其他方面的安全保障，是不会做出这个决定的”。“我们知道他得到了阿拉伯联合酋长国的大力支持，阿联酋非常关注邻国苏丹和达尔富尔的局势。我们也知道土耳其也进行了一些接触。”

乍得与四个驻有俄罗斯军队的国家接壤。今年1月，代比访问莫斯科，旨在加强与这个“伙伴国”的关系。

驱逐法国军队的尼日尔、马里和布基纳法索的军事领导人已经向俄罗斯靠拢，俄罗斯在萨赫勒地区部署了雇佣兵，这些雇佣兵被指控虐待平民。

但这些国家的安全局势恶化，极端主义袭击事件和平民死亡人数不断增加，武装团体和政府军均有此行为。据武装冲突地点和事件数据项目（ACLED）统计，今年前六个月共有3064名平民丧生，比前六个月增加了25%。

无法断定法国军队的撤离是否直接导致了暴力事件的增加。但经济学人智库分析师沙安塔努·尚卡尔表示，撤离造成了“巨大的安全真空”，而俄罗斯无法填补这一真空。他还指出，俄罗斯私人军事公司瓦格纳的部队是由财政资源匮乏的军政府资助的。