No Perikatan, no problem? Political analysts say Opposition faces a tricky Melaka campaign

The split between PAS and Bersatu following Perikatan Nasional's deregistration could weaken their position in the upcoming Melaka state election, potentially leading to disjointed strategies and multi-cornered contests, according to political analysts.

PAS may leverage its organizational strength and grassroots support to campaign independently, while Bersatu faces the challenge of redefining its political direction without PAS.

The dissolution of PN might prompt a realignment among opposition parties, complicating campaign coordination and potentially reshaping the political landscape.

Despite these challenges, both parties retain significant organizational and grassroots backing.

KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 22 — The split between PAS and Bersatu following an internal crisis in Perikatan Nasional (PN), which led to the cancellation of the coalition’s registration, could weaken the opposition’s position in the Melaka state election campaign beginning on Oct 31, political analysts say.

Ilham Centre research fellow Mujibu Abd Muis said the opposition’s internal turmoil would affect coordination of election strategies, potentially leading to multi-cornered contests, a split in votes and candidates from opposition parties competing against one another.

He said PN’s deregistration raised questions about using a common identity and coordinating candidates, prompting PAS and Bersatu to reconsider their strategies for the state election.

“PAS may find it easier to campaign under its own identity because it has a strong organisational network and grassroots support. Nevertheless, this does not guarantee that it will retain all the support voters previously gave to PN.

“Without coordination, multi-cornered contests could lead to vote splitting, giving rival parties an advantage.

“The Melaka state election will test not only the strength of PAS and Bersatu, but also their ability to adjust their strategies in the wake of the split,” he told Bernama.

Mujibu, a senior political science lecturer at Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM), said Bersatu faced a bigger immediate challenge in charting its political direction without relying on its strategic alliance with PAS.

He said Bersatu could either operate independently to preserve its political identity or seek new alliances, although both options posed risks to its long-term future.

“Bersatu may be able to maintain its political autonomy by flying solo, but autonomy without strategic partners could become an electoral liability,” he said.

He said the rift between PAS and Bersatu could also reshape the opposition’s political landscape, particularly in determining which party could inherit the influence and support previously consolidated under PN.

He said PAS was well placed to become a more dominant force within the opposition bloc, given its organisational capacity and grassroots reach, but it would need to prove itself by winning seats and attracting support beyond its existing base.

Meanwhile, Universiti Malaya socio-political analyst Datuk Professor Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said the crisis in PN could hasten a realignment among opposition parties, including changes to relations between PAS, Bersatu and other parties.

He said the possibility of an alternative coalition or a more flexible political alliance could not be discounted if the former BN component parties failed to restore their working relationship.

He said the approaching Oct 31 nomination day for the Melaka state election left PAS and Bersatu with little time to resolve uncertainties over party symbols, seat allocation and campaign coordination.

“The crisis could lead to former allies competing against one another, overlapping candidates and confusion among supporters if legal issues and political disagreements are not resolved quickly,” he said.

Nevertheless, he said PN’s deregistration would not automatically weaken the opposition, as PAS and Bersatu retained their respective organisational structures, grassroots networks and political influence.

The Registrar of Societies Malaysia (RoS) cancelled PN’s registration on Tuesday (Oct 20) under subparagraph 13(1)(c)(iv) of the Societies Act 1966 after finding that the coalition’s explanation had failed to refute the grounds for cancellation set out in a notice dated Sept 22.

The decision came after an internal crisis within PN, when Bersatu submitted a formal complaint to RoS on Aug 11, alleging it had been barred from attending and participating in a PN Supreme Council meeting on July 16. — Bernama

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政治分析人士认为，国民联盟被注销后，伊斯兰党和土著团结党的分裂可能会削弱它们在即将到来的马六甲州选举中的地位，并可能导致策略脱节和多方混战。

伊斯兰党可能会利用其组织实力和基层支持进行独立竞选，而土著团结党则面临着在没有伊斯兰党的情况下重新定义其政治方向的挑战。

国民党的解散可能会促使反对党重新结盟，使竞选协调更加复杂，并有可能重塑政治格局。

尽管面临这些挑战，双方仍然拥有强大的组织和基层支持。

吉隆坡，10 月 22 日讯——政治分析人士表示，国民联盟（PN）内部危机导致伊斯兰党（PAS）和土著团结党（Bersatu）分裂，进而取消了该联盟的注册资格，这可能会削弱反对派在 10 月 31 日开始的马六甲州选举中的地位。

伊尔哈姆中心研究员穆吉布·阿卜杜勒·穆伊斯表示，反对派内部的动荡将影响选举策略的协调，可能导致多方竞争、选票分散以及反对党候选人相互竞争。

他表示，国民联盟的注销引发了关于使用共同身份和协调候选人的问题，促使伊斯兰党和土著团结党重新考虑他们在州选举中的策略。

“伊斯兰党或许更容易以自身名义开展竞选活动，因为它拥有强大的组织网络和基层支持。然而，这并不能保证它能保留选民之前给予国民党的全部支持。”

“如果没有协调，多方角逐可能会导致选票分散，从而使竞争对手获得优势。

“马六甲州选举不仅将考验伊斯兰党和土著团结党的实力，还将考验他们在分裂后调整策略的能力，”他告诉马新社。

马来西亚玛拉工艺大学 (UiTM) 高级政治学讲师穆吉布表示，土著团结党面临的更大挑战是，在不依赖与伊斯兰党的战略联盟的情况下，如何制定其政治方向。

他表示，土著团结党既可以独立运作以维护其政治身份，也可以寻求新的联盟，尽管这两种选择都会给其长远未来带来风险。

“土著团结党或许能够通过单打独斗来维持其政治自主性，但如果没有战略伙伴，自主性可能会成为选举的包袱，”他说。

他表示，伊斯兰党和土著团结党之间的裂痕也可能重​​塑反对派的政治格局，尤其是在决定哪个政党能够继承此前在国民联盟领导下巩固的影响力和支持方面。

他表示，鉴于伊斯兰党的组织能力和基层影响力，它完全有能力成为反对派阵营中的一支更强大的力量，但它需要通过赢得席位和吸引现有基础以外的支持来证明自己。

与此同时，马来亚大学社会政治分析师拿督阿旺阿兹曼阿旺帕维教授表示，国盟的危机可能会加速反对党之间的重新结盟，包括伊党、土团党和其他政党之间关系的变化。

他表示，如果前国阵成员党未能恢复工作关系，则不能排除组建替代联盟或更灵活的政治联盟的可能性。

他表示，马六甲州选举提名日（10月31日）临近，伊斯兰党和土著团结党几乎没有时间解决党徽、席位分配和竞选协调等方面的不确定性。

他说：“如果法律问题和政治分歧不能迅速解决，这场危机可能会导致昔日盟友互相竞争、候选人重叠以及支持者之间的混乱。”

不过，他表示，国民联盟的注销并不会自动削弱反对派的力量，因为伊斯兰党和土著团结党仍然保留了各自的组织结构、基层网络和政治影响力。

马来西亚社团注册局（RoS）于星期二（10 月 20 日）根据 1966 年社团法令第 13(1)(c)(iv) 条取消了 PN 的注册，原因是该联盟的解释未能反驳 9 月 22 日通知中列出的取消理由。

这一决定源于国盟内部的一场危机。8月11日，土著团结党向社团注册局（RoS）提交正式投诉，声称其被禁止参加7月16日举行的国盟最高理事会会议。——马新社

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