The top 10 Senate seats most likely to flip, less than two weeks before the midterms

With the November election in sight, Democratic excitement about the party winning control of the US Senate is running high, but it’s far from a sure bet.

Democrats have a 10-point advantage over Republicans nationwide in voters’ choice in their own congressional district, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS . President Donald Trump’s approval rating sits at 33% among US adults, the CNN Poll of Polls average shows, and cost-of-living concerns, including the economic fallout from the war with Iran, weigh heavily on many voters’ minds.

But the red makeup of this year’s Senate map should not be underestimated. Trump won many of the most competitive states on this list in 2024 by double digits, and Republicans are dedicating large sums for advertising to defend their turf. A review of AdImpact data for the final two weeks of the midterms shows more than $300 million pouring into races from both sides for the 10 seats on this list.

Kansas and New Hampshire have switched spots on this list as the Midwest as a whole grows more competitive in recent weeks. We also included four other states we consider to be on the bubble, offering potential surprises on Election Day.

Our ranking of the seats most likely to flip in November is based on CNN reporting, including conversations with strategists involved in Senate races, as well as our analysis of candidate fundraising, polling and the partisan environment in the states. The rankings are a snapshot of where the contests stand at this point and can shift as the midterm election season enters its final days.

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North Carolina once again sits atop the list, as Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper is leading in polls over GOP candidate Michael Whatley. Republicans have pulled back on their spending in the race with GOP groups reserving only $2.5 million for the final two weeks of the campaign compared to the $13.2 million from Democrats, according to AdImpact data.

No midterms contest is expected to see more ad spending over the final two weeks of the election than Ohio, with about $75 million combined remaining. A CNN Poll of Polls average shows Democrat Sherrod Brown, a former senator, with a narrow advantage over Republican Sen. Jon Husted, 49% to 44%. That includes a recent CNN poll conducted by SSRS that showed Brown is more well-known and better viewed than Husted, who was appointed to fill the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance.

Gene J. Puskar/AP/File

Like much of the Senate landscape, Ohio is a state Trump won by double digits. But the president is deeply underwater in the state, with only 36% of likely voters approving of his performance, the CNN poll found.

Brown is hoping to ride anti-Trump sentiment into November and is seizing on political vulnerabilities for Republicans in his ads, including a new TV spot knocking Husted over data centers and the Epstein files.

Jeff Dean/Getty Images

Trump is working to rally the GOP base, holding two events in Ohio and another in neighboring Kentucky, which borders Cincinnati, just this month. Republicans are on track to outspend Democrats here in the final two weeks by about $9 million.

One wildcard: An 11th-hour ad from Republican gubernatorial nominee Vivek Ramaswamy’s campaign featuring his opponent’s estranged mother. Husted distanced himself from the video, telling The Associated Press, “I would not have run that ad.”

Alaska keeps its spot at No. 3. Democrat Mary Peltola, a former congresswoman, appears to be in a strong position against Republican GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan.

Nathaniel Wilder/Bloomberg/Getty Images

Polling in the large, remote state has been sparse, but a New York Times/Siena poll released earlier this month showed Peltola up 7 points over Sullivan.

The two candidates clashed in a debate last week. Sullivan questioned Peltola’s character as he cited allegations that she mistreated her staff, while the Democrat accused the senator of lying and dishonesty.

The debate also highlighted the difficult position Trump’s war with Iran has created for GOP candidates. Sullivan said the war “needs to end soon” as the economic fallout has hit the state, where gas prices are particularly high.

Republican Sen. Susan Collins is locked in one of her toughest reelection bids yet against Democrat Troy Jackson.

Charly Triballeau/AFP/Getty Images

Recent polling has shown no clear leader, but much of the race hinges on frustration with the president and Collins, who Democrats argue doesn’t stand up to Trump when it matters most. Her vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who later joined the majority that overturned Roe v. Wade, has made abortion rights an issue in this contest.

Collins is the only Republican senator running in a state won by former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024. But Collins has defied her state’s leftward lean in the past and promoted the benefits she’s brought to Maine as chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee. On Wednesday, she campaigned with former West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, who switched his party affiliation from Democrat to independent.

In the final two weeks, Republicans are on track to spend nearly $17 million, compared to about $14 million from Democrats.

The race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton is generating some of the biggest attention of this midterm cycle.

A CNN Poll of Polls average in the Senate race shows a tight race between Talarico and Paxton, 49% to 47%. The new Fox News poll finds a tied contest there. While most of the surveys included show the race within the margin of error, none have found an advantage for Paxton.

One of the biggest developments in this race since the last rankings: A frenzy over Talarico’s more than weeklong absence from the campaign trail , sparking conspiracy theories promoted by Republicans about his whereabouts. Talarico set the record straight in a CNN and Jubilee Media town hall, saying he had the flu and calling the conspiratorial focus a distraction from the issues that matter to voters.

Talarico’s ability to make this race so competitive and Paxton’s political baggage are giving Democrats hope they finally might break their 32-year losing streak in statewide races. But to do so, Talarico must still win in a state Trump carried by nearly 14 points in 2024.

The GOP’s money bomb to save Paxton, fueled in large part by political groups linked to tech billionaire Elon Musk , will continue into the final two weeks. Republicans are set to spend three times what Democrats have reserved, even if the massive amount of spending may not be dinging Talarico’s standing as much as Republican strategists had hoped.

All told, Republicans are set to spend more than $380 million on ads for the Senate race in Texas, including the primary and the general election – a staggering total for a state that the GOP has dominated .

The race between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and former Rep. Mike Rogers has become one of the most contentious matchups of the year.

A new CNN Poll of Polls average showed no clear leader, with El-Sayed at an average of 49% among likely voters and Rogers at an average of 47%.

The Muslim Brotherhood has emerged as a flashpoint in the campaign as Republicans attempt to cast El-Sayed as sympathetic to the interests of Islamic terror. El-Sayed, who would become the first Muslim senator if elected, last weekend denounced the Muslim Brotherhood in a heated exchange at a campaign event while also arguing he’s been unfairly accused of the same “dual loyalties” that former Presidents John F. Kennedy and Barack Obama were.

On Saturday, Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed responded to an attendee who asked him to disavow the Muslim Brotherhood, saying he's "running for Senate and happens to be Muslim."

Both candidates are facing real challenges. El-Sayed still needs to win over Black voters who sided with his opponent in the Democratic primary and Jewish Democrats skeptical of his candidacy . Rogers is grappling with Trump’s unpopularity in the state, as a recent Marist survey showed 44% of likely voters viewed their decision as mainly against Trump.

But Republicans are set to outspend Democrats by almost double over the final two weeks, about $27.2 million to $15 million.

Trump will campaign in the state on Sunday in Port Huron, across the border from Canada, while Obama will appear with El-Sayed for a Detroit rally Saturday that could help with Black voters.

Michigan is key to Democrats’ path to the Senate majority, and this race feels far from settled. If El-Sayed loses, it would require Democrats to win at least five Republican-held seats, many in states Trump won by double digits in 2024.

A CNN Poll of Polls average shows no clear leader here, with Democrat Josh Turek polling at 47% and Republican Ashley Hinson at 46%. A CNN poll conducted by SSRS last month found likely voters favored a Republican-controlled Senate (53% to 46%).

Charlie Neibergall/AP

Trump won the state by double digits in 2024, and his approval rating in the state stands at 41%, higher than the national average. But economic headwinds are playing heavily in the race. About three-quarters of people in the state say the president’s policies have increased the cost of living.

Turek could benefit from a strong performance by the Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, who has led his GOP opponent in polls.

Republicans are set to spend about $23.5 million in Iowa and Democrats close to $30 million.

Kansas moves up one spot to No. 8 as Republicans race to save this seat in a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic senator in 94 years .

Evert Nelson/The Capital-Journal/USA Today Network/Imagn Images

Democrat Adam Hamilton is running a competitive race against GOP Sen. Roger Marshall. A NYT/Siena poll last month showed the two candidates tied.

Hamilton, a Methodist megachurch pastor, describes himself as an “independent-minded Democrat” and would need the support of Republican voters in a state Trump carried by 16 points in 2024. Marshall, a doctor, is contending with voter frustration on the economy and the Iran war while facing backlash over a New York Times report detailing his tactic of suing hundreds of patients for outstanding medical bills.

Both parties are surging resources to the state few envisioned would be in play at the start of the cycle, each party with more than $11 million booked over the last two weeks.

In a sign of the party’s shifting resources, the GOP is set to spend more in Kansas during this period than in Georgia and North Carolina combined. And Trump campaigned with Marshall in the state this week, casting the race as a choice between “radical” Democrats who will destroy America and a continuation of his self-described “golden age.”

New Hampshire moves down one spot as Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas appears on more stable ground in his contest against GOP former Sen. John Sununu.

Joseph Preziozo/AFP/Getty Images

A University of New Hampshire poll conducted in September showed Pappas up 8 points over Sununu while a NYT/Siena survey showed the race within the margin of error.

One factor aiding Pappas is Trump’s unpopularity in the state as the NYT/Siena poll showed his approval rating at 38%. While his opponent works to link him to Trump, Sununu has gone as far as releasing a TV ad this week distancing himself from the president, saying “I’ve never even met the man.”

Pappas has embraced high-profile Democrats campaigning on his behalf, including an upcoming visit from Harris, who won the state by 3 points in 2024.

Georgia sits at the bottom of the battleground states most likely to flip in November as Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff appears to have a lock on the state Trump won in 2024. An Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll conducted by the University of Georgia found Ossoff with an 8-point lead over Republican Rep. Mike Collins, 48% to 40%.

It could be argued that the state should move off this list entirely. But Georgia was included in the rankings from the beginning. Its low position now reflects the GOP’s lost opportunity in one of their few offensive targets outlined at the start of the cycle.

The list above includes many toss-up states that could determine the midterm election. But there is another tier of states on the bubble where a variety of factors could cause a surprise upset on Election Day. Here are those states – two in the Midwest and two in the South – that we’re watching in the final stretch:

GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts is facing off against Dan Osborn, an independent candidate who unsuccessfully ran for Senate in 2024. Nebraska is another midwestern state Trump won in 2024 that is now feeling the economic pinch from Trump’s war with Iran. Republicans are set to spend $10 million in the final weeks compared to nearly $6 million from Osborn and his allies.

Republican Sen. Darline Graham is running against Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, for a full term after being appointed to her late brother Sen. Lindsey Graham’s seat. Darline Graham entered the race with little political experience of her own, and the GOP has sent in reinforcements to prevent this seat from moving toward Democrats. The GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund has allotted $5 million for ads in the final two weeks, and Trump campaigned in the Palmetto State on Wednesday. Voters have not elected a Democratic senator in the state in nearly three decades.

Minnesota has largely flown under the radar in this election, but a GOP win has the potential to sneak up on Democrats’ efforts to hold this blue seat. Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is facing off against Republican Michele Tafoya, a former sports broadcaster turned conservative activist. The GOP feels the state’s welfare fraud scandal hurts Flanagan. But Republicans have not spent substantive money to try to move the needle in the race, and Flanagan could be aided by Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s appearance on the ballot in the governor’s race.

Mississippi is another southern state Democrats believe could end up in play with their nominee, Scott Colom, challenging GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith. Colom’s allies argue the GOP’s political headwinds and the state’s sizable percentage of Black voters (35%) could work in their favor. The Democrat-aligned Senate Majority PAC announced a $1.2 million ad campaign this week and Harris is expected to join Colom on Thursday. In one buzzy ad, Colom’s campaign mocked Hyde-Smith for a comment suggesting there are “so many proteins to choose from” when asked about rising beef prices.

This is still a state Trump won by 23 points, making it an uphill battle for Democrats. But in one sign of its potential competitiveness, the president plans to campaign in Mississippi on Monday.

随着11月大选临近，民主党人对赢得美国参议院控制权的热情高涨，但这远非板上钉钉。

根据CNN委托SSRS进行的一项最新民调显示，在全国范围内，民主党在选民各自选区的国会候选人支持率上领先共和党10个百分点。CNN民调汇总的平均数据显示，唐纳德·特朗普总统在美国成年人中的支持率为33%，而生活成本问题，包括伊朗战争带来的经济影响，是许多选民最为关注的问题。

但今年参议院选情的红色格局不容小觑。特朗普在2024年以两位数的优势赢得了名单上许多竞争最激烈的州，共和党人正投入巨资进行广告宣传，以捍卫他们的地盘。对AdImpact在中期选举最后两周的数据分析显示，双方共投入超过3亿美元用于名单上这10个席位的竞选。

堪萨斯州和新罕布什尔州在这份榜单上的排名互换，因为近几周来整个中西部地区的竞争日趋激烈。我们还列出了另外四个我们认为选情胶着的州，它们可能会在选举日带来意想不到的结果。

我们对11月最有可能易手的席位排名，是基于CNN的报道，包括与参与参议院竞选的策略师的对话，以及我们对候选人筹款、民调和各州党派环境的分析。该排名反映了目前各选区的选情，随着中期选举季进入尾声，排名可能会发生变化。

参议院的控制权目前悬而未决。请分析各党派赢得参议院的最佳途径。

北卡罗来纳州再次位居榜首，民主党前州长罗伊·库珀在民调中领先于共和党候选人迈克尔·沃特利。共和党已缩减竞选支出，据AdImpact数据显示，共和党团体仅为竞选最后两周预留了250万美元，而民主党则预留了1320万美元。

预计在中期选举最后两周，俄亥俄州的广告支出将超过其他任何州，两州共计约有7500万美元的广告预算尚未到位。CNN民调汇总显示，民主党候选人、前参议员谢罗德·布朗以49%对44%的微弱优势领先于共和党参议员乔恩·赫斯特。这一结果也包括CNN委托SSRS进行的最新民调，该民调显示布朗的知名度和支持率均高于赫斯特。赫斯特是被任命填补副总统JD·万斯留下的空缺的。

吉恩·J·普斯卡/美联社/档案照片

与参议院的大部分选情一样，俄亥俄州也是特朗普曾以两位数优势获胜的州。但CNN的民调显示，特朗普在该州的支持率大幅下滑，仅有36%的潜在选民认可他的表现。

布朗希望借助反特朗普情绪在 11 月赢得大选，并在广告中利用共和党的政治弱点，包括一则新的电视广告，抨击哈斯特在数据中心和爱泼斯坦档案问题上的立场。

Jeff Dean/Getty Images

特朗普正努力争取共和党基本盘的支持，仅本月就在俄亥俄州和邻近的肯塔基州（与辛辛那提接壤）分别举行了两场竞选活动。共和党在最后两周的竞选支出预计将比民主党高出约900万美元。

一个变数：共和党州长候选人维韦克·拉马斯瓦米竞选团队在最后一刻投放了一则广告，广告中出现了他对手疏远的母亲。哈斯特德与该视频划清界限，他告诉美联社：“我不会投放这样的广告。”

阿拉斯加州保持第三的位置。民主党人玛丽·佩尔托拉（Mary Peltola）曾是国会议员，她似乎在与共和党参议员丹·沙利文（Dan Sullivan）的竞争中处于优势地位。

Nathaniel Wilder/Bloomberg/Getty Images

在这个幅员辽阔、地处偏远的州，民调数据一直很少，但本月早些时候公布的《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院民调显示，佩尔托拉领先沙利文 7 个百分点。

上周，两位候选人在辩论中激烈交锋。苏利文质疑佩尔托拉的人品，并列举了她虐待员工的指控；而这位民主党候选人则指责这位参议员撒谎、不诚实。

这场辩论也凸显了特朗普对伊朗的战争给共和党候选人带来的困境。苏利文表示，这场战争“必须尽快结束”，因为其带来的经济影响已经波及到该州，尤其是该州的汽油价格居高不下。

共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯正面临着迄今为止最艰难的连任竞选之一，她的对手是民主党人特洛伊·杰克逊。

Charly Triballeau/AFP/Getty Images

近期民调显示，目前尚无明显领先者，但选情很大程度上取决于选民对总统和科林斯的不满。民主党人认为，科林斯在关键时刻没有挺身对抗特朗普。她投票确认布雷特·卡瓦诺担任最高法院大法官，而卡瓦诺后来加入了推翻“罗诉韦德案”的多数派，这使得堕胎权成为此次选举中的一个关键议题。

科林斯是唯一一位在2024年大选中被前副总统卡马拉·哈里斯拿下的州竞选参议员的共和党候选人。但科林斯过去曾违背缅因州的左倾趋势，并大力宣传她担任参议院拨款委员会主席期间为缅因州带来的益处。周三，她与前西弗吉尼亚州参议员乔·曼钦一同参加竞选活动，曼钦此前已从民主党转为独立人士。

在最后两周，共和党人预计将花费近 1700 万美元，而民主党人预计将花费约 1400 万美元。

民主党候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科和共和党总检察长肯·帕克斯顿之间的竞选，是本次中期选举周期中最受关注的焦点之一。

CNN综合民调显示，参议院席位争夺战中，塔拉里科和帕克斯顿的支持率分别为49%和47%，势均力敌。福克斯新闻的最新民调也显示两人支持率持平。虽然大多数民调结果显示双方差距在误差范围内，但没有一项民调显示帕克斯顿有任何优势。

自上次排名以来，这场竞选最大的进展之一是：塔拉里科连续一周多没有出现在竞选活动中，引发了轩然大波，共和党人更是散布各种阴谋论，猜测他的行踪。塔拉里科在CNN和Jubilee Media联合举办的市政厅会议上澄清事实，称自己得了流感，并表示这些阴谋论分散了选民对真正重要问题的注意力。

塔拉里科将这场竞选搞得如此胶着，加上帕克斯顿的政治包袱，让民主党人看到了打破32年来在全州选举中连败纪录的希望。但要做到这一点，塔拉里​​科仍然必须在2024年特朗普以近14个百分点的优势赢得的这个州获胜。

共和党为拯救帕克斯顿而投入的巨额资金，很大程度上是由与科技亿万富翁埃隆·马斯克有关联的政治团体推动的，并将持续到最后两周。共和党的支出计划是民主党预留资金的三倍，尽管如此巨额的支出可能不会像共和党策略师所希望的那样，对塔拉里科的支持率造成严重打击。

总计，共和党人将在德克萨斯州的参议院竞选广告上花费超过 3.8 亿美元，包括初选和普选——对于共和党一直占据主导地位的德克萨斯州来说，这是一个惊人的数字。

民主党候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德与前众议员迈克·罗杰斯之间的竞选已成为今年最具争议的对决之一。

CNN 最新民调平均值显示，没有明显的领先者，埃尔-赛义德在可能投票的选民中平均支持率为 49%，罗杰斯为 47%。

穆斯林兄弟会已成为此次竞选的焦点，共和党人试图将埃尔-赛义德描绘成同情伊斯兰恐怖主义利益的人。埃尔-赛义德如果当选，将成为美国历史上首位穆斯林参议员。上周末，他在一场竞选活动中与人激烈交锋，谴责了穆斯林兄弟会，同时他也辩称，自己被不公平地指控与前总统约翰·F·肯尼迪和巴拉克·奥巴马一样，犯有“双重效忠”的错误。

周六，密歇根州民主党参议员候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德回应了一位要求他公开谴责穆斯林兄弟会的与会者，称他“正在竞选参议员，碰巧是穆斯林”。

两位候选人都面临着严峻的挑战。埃尔-赛义德仍需争取在民主党初选中支持其对手的黑人选民以及对他持怀疑态度的犹太裔民主党人的支持。罗杰斯则要应对特朗普在该州低支持率带来的挑战，马里斯特学院最近的一项调查显示，44%的潜在选民表示，他们的投票决定主要是出于反对特朗普的考虑。

但共和党在最后两周的支出将比民主党高出近一倍，约为 2720 万美元对 1500 万美元。

特朗普将于周日在与加拿大接壤的休伦港进行竞选活动，而奥巴马将于周六与埃尔-赛义德一起在底特律参加集会，这可能会有助于赢得黑人选民的支持。

密歇根州对民主党能否赢得参议院多数席位至关重要，而这场选举远未尘埃落定。如果埃尔-赛义德败选，民主党至少需要拿下五个共和党把持的席位，其中许多席位位于特朗普在2024年大选中以两位数优势获胜的州。

CNN民调汇总的平均结果显示，目前尚无明显领先者，民主党候选人乔什·图雷克的支持率为47%，共和党候选人阿什利·欣森的支持率为46%。CNN委托SSRS上个月进行的民调发现，可能投票的选民倾向于共和党控制参议院（53%对46%）。

查理·尼伯格尔/美联社

特朗普在2024年以两位数优势赢得了该州，目前他在该州的支持率高达41%，高于全国平均水平。但经济逆风对选情产生了重大影响。该州约四分之三的居民认为总统的政策推高了生活成本。

图雷克可能会受益于民主党州长候选人罗布·桑德的出色表现，桑德在民调中一直领先于他的共和党对手。

共和党人预计将在爱荷华州花费约 2350 万美元，而民主党人预计将花费近 3000 万美元。

堪萨斯州排名上升一位至第 8 位，共和党人正全力保住这个席位，该州已有 94 年未选出过民主党参议员。

埃弗特·尼尔森/《首都日报》/今日美国网络/Imagn Images

民主党候选人亚当·汉密尔顿正与共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔展开激烈角逐。上个月《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院的民调显示，两位候选人的支持率不相上下。

汉密尔顿是一位卫理公会大型教会的牧师，他自称是“独立思考的民主党人”，需要共和党选民的支持，而特朗普在2024年以16个百分点的优势赢得了该州。马歇尔是一位医生，他正努力应对选民对经济和伊朗战争的不满，同时还面临着《纽约时报》一篇报道的强烈反对，该报道详细描述了他起诉数百名患者追讨未付医疗费的做法。

两党都在向这个在选举周期开始时几乎无人预料到会成为焦点的州投入大量资源，两党在过去两周内都已投入超过 1100 万美元。

共和党资源重心转移的一个迹象是，该党在此期间在堪萨斯州的竞选支出将超过佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州的总和。本周，特朗普与马歇尔一同在该州展开竞选活动，将这场选举描绘成“激进”民主党人摧毁美国与他自诩的“黄金时代”延续之间的选择。

新罕布什尔州排名下降一位，民主党众议员克里斯·帕帕斯在与共和党前参议员约翰·苏努努的竞争中似乎形势更加稳固。

约瑟夫·普雷齐奥佐/法新社/盖蒂图片社

新罕布什尔大学 9 月份进行的一项民意调查显示，帕帕斯领先苏努努 8 个百分点，而《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院的一项调查显示，双方的差距在误差范围内。

帕帕斯胜选的一个有利因素是特朗普在该州的支持率很低，《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院的民调显示他的支持率只有38%。尽管他的对手试图将他与特朗普联系起来，但苏努努本周甚至发布了一则电视广告，与总统划清界限，称“我甚至从未见过这个人”。

帕帕斯热情接待了为他助选的知名民主党人，其中包括即将到访的哈里斯，哈里斯在 2024 年以 3 个百分点的优势赢得了该州。

在11月最有可能翻盘的几个摇摆州中，佐治亚州排名垫底，因为民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫似乎已经稳操胜券，而特朗普在2024年赢得了该州。佐治亚大学委托《亚特兰大宪法报》进行的一项民意调查显示，奥索夫以48%对40%的优势领先共和党众议员迈克·柯林斯8个百分点。

有人可能会认为佐治亚州应该完全从这份名单中移除。但佐治亚州从一开始就被列入了排名。它如今的低排名反映了共和党错失了在竞选周期之初就已确定的少数几个进攻目标之一上的良机。

以上列出的州中有很多摇摆州，它们可能会决定中期选举的最终结果。但还有另一类州处于摇摆状态，各种因素都可能导致选举日出现意想不到的冷门结果。以下是我们在最后冲刺阶段重点关注的几个州——中西部两个，南部两个：

共和党参议员皮特·里基茨将与独立候选人丹·奥斯本展开角逐，奥斯本曾在2024年竞选参议员但落败。内布拉斯加州是特朗普在2024年赢得的另一个中西部州，如今正因特朗普对伊朗的战争而遭受经济冲击。共和党计划在最后几周投入1000万美元，而奥斯本及其盟友的投入则接近600万美元。

共和党参议员达琳·格雷厄姆（Darline Graham）接替已故兄长林赛·格雷厄姆（Lindsey Graham）的席位，正与民主党候选人、儿科医生安妮·安德鲁斯（Annie Andrews）竞选连任。达琳·格雷厄姆的政治经验尚浅，共和党已投入大量资源，力图阻止民主党夺取该席位。与共和党关系密切的参议院领导基金已拨款500万美元用于最后两周的竞选广告，特朗普也于周三在南卡罗来纳州进行了竞选活动。该州近三十年来从未选出过民主党参议员。

明尼苏达州在此次选举中一直较为低调，但共和党若获胜，可能会对民主党保住这个民主党传统票仓的努力造成不利影响。民主党副州长佩吉·弗拉纳根将与共和党候选人米歇尔·塔福亚展开角逐，后者曾是一名体育播音员，后转型为保守派活动家。共和党认为该州的福利欺诈丑闻对弗拉纳根不利。但共和党并未投入大量资金试图扭转选情，而民主党参议员艾米·克洛布查尔的参选可能会对弗拉纳根有所帮助。

密西西比州是另一个被民主党人视为可能成为摇摆州的南部州，他们的候选人斯科特·科洛姆将挑战共和党参议员辛迪·海德-史密斯。科洛姆的盟友认为，共和党面临的政治逆风以及该州高达35%的非裔选民比例可能对他们有利。与民主党结盟的参议院多数党政治行动委员会本周宣布了一项耗资120万美元的广告宣传活动，预计哈里斯将于周四加入科洛姆的竞选团队。在一则备受关注的广告中，科洛姆的竞选团队嘲讽了海德-史密斯在被问及牛肉价格上涨时发表的“蛋白质种类繁多，可供选择”的言论。

密西西比州仍然是特朗普以23个百分点的优势获胜的州，因此对民主党来说，这是一场艰苦的战斗。但总统计划于周一在密西西比州进行竞选活动，这表明该州的竞争可能十分激烈。