Study suggests Russia could conquer Baltic states in 90 days

WARSAW, Poland — Drawing on lessons from the Iran war, a study shows how Russia could force Lithuania into capitulation in 90 days with no soldiers crossing the border.

Drafted by the Baltic Defense Initiative, a small think tank based in Vilnius, the scenario exposes specific vulnerabilities of the Lithuanian defense posture, with the aim to plug gaps as soon as possible.

Fast-forward almost two years into the future, when the effects of right-wing, anti-European movements taking power in Europe meld with the fallout of a prolonged Iran war dragging Washington down, the scenario goes.

“December 2027. Marine Le Pen withdraws France’s nuclear umbrella from all NATO allies,” the analysis posits, referring to the French far-right politician as president, undoing nuclear-sharing vows for Europe between France and the United Kingdom.

“The U.S. is 18 months drained into the Iran war with empty stocks,” the study continues. “At 11 a.m., Russia launches a devastating attack on Lithuania’s government with hypersonic missiles, followed by the launch of +170,000 Shahed drones over the next 60 days that completely flatten Vilnius — destroying every bridge, every power plant, every hospital, every water treatment facility in the country.”

The think tank says its scenario is constructed entirely from verified weapon system capabilities, observed production rates for military equipment such as drones, and documented global political trends.

“On Day 90, Moscow issues an ultimatum: all three Baltic states accept Russian occupation — or Riga and Tallinn are next,” the Baltic Defense Initiative report states.

Opinions among officials and analysts vary greatly when it comes to Russia’s appetite for attacking the Baltic nations, which are part of NATO. Even so, all eastern European nations have dialed up their defense spending in recent years to make themselves into formidable obstacles if it came to war.

The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, for its part, published an assessment earlier this year that said Russia was not expected to attack any NATO member states in the next two years, a testament, in part, to European efforts to quickly boost their defenses in the last few years.

Thiebaut Devergranne, the founder of the Baltic Defense Initiative and a former official with the General Secretariat for Defence and National Security (SGDSN), which reports to the French prime minister, said he identified a flaw in Lithuania’s constitution that should be addressed by the country’s authorities.

The constitution does not foresee a line of succession ensuring continuity of government after the speaker of the Seimas, the nation’s unicameral parliament, were to be incapacitated, Devergranne said. As a result, if a strike succeeds at neutralizing both Lithuania’s president and the speaker, the responsibility to act as the country’s next commander-in-chief could be unclear, he added.

“We think this should be addressed,” he wrote in an email.

The Baltic Defense Initiative has developed more than 200 defense-focused proposals for Lithuania, “built on France’s post-WW II deterrence model of sovereignty through strength,” according to the researcher.

Jaroslaw Adamowski is the Poland correspondent for Defense News.

波兰华沙——一项研究借鉴了伊朗战争的经验，表明俄罗斯可以在90天内迫使立陶宛投降，而无需派遣任何士兵越过边境。

该方案由位于维尔纽斯的波罗的海防务倡议组织（一家小型智库）起草，旨在揭示立陶宛国防态势的具体脆弱性，并尽快弥补这些漏洞。

快进到近两年后的未来，当右翼反欧运动在欧洲掌权的影响与旷日持久的伊朗战争拖垮华盛顿的后果交织在一起时，情况就是这样。

分析指出，“2027 年 12 月，玛丽娜·勒庞将撤回法国对所有北约盟国的核保护伞”，这里指的是法国极右翼政治家担任总统期间，此举将破坏法国和英国之间在欧洲的核共享承诺。

“美国在伊朗战争中已经耗费了18个月的时间，库存也已耗尽，”该研究继续说道。“上午11点，俄罗斯用高超音速导弹对立陶宛政府发动了毁灭性袭击，随后在接下来的60天里，俄罗斯发射了超过17万架‘沙赫德’无人机，将维尔纽斯夷为平地——摧毁了该国的每一座桥梁、每一座发电厂、每一家医院和每一个水处理设施。”

该智库表示，其设想完全基于已验证的武器系统能力、观察到的无人机等军事装备的生产速度以及有记录的全球政治趋势。

“第 90 天，莫斯科发出最后通牒：波罗的海三国接受俄罗斯占领——否则里加和塔林将是下一个目标，”波罗的海防务倡议报告指出。

对于俄罗斯是否有可能攻击北约成员国波罗的海国家，官员和分析人士的意见分歧很大。即便如此，近年来所有东欧国家都增加了国防开支，以期在战争爆发时成为强大的对手。

爱沙尼亚对外情报局今年早些时候发布的一份评估报告称，预计俄罗斯在未来两年内不会攻击任何北约成员国，这在一定程度上证明了欧洲在过去几年中迅速加强防御的努力。

波罗的海防务倡议的创始人、曾任法国总理国防与国家安全总秘书处（SGDSN）官员的蒂博·德韦尔格朗表示，他发现立陶宛宪法存在缺陷，该国当局应该对此予以解决。

德韦尔格伦表示，宪法并未规定在立陶宛一院制议会——塞马斯议长丧失行为能力后，政府能否继续运作的继承顺序。因此，如果罢工成功导致立陶宛总统和议长都无法行使权力，那么谁将担任国家下一任最高统帅的责任就可能不明朗。

他在一封电子邮件中写道：“我们认为这个问题应该得到解决。”

据研究人员称，波罗的海防务倡议组织已为立陶宛制定了 200 多项以国防为中心的提案，“这些提案建立在法国二战后通过实力维护主权的威慑模式之上”。

Jaroslaw Adamowski 是《防务新闻》驻波兰记者。