More than $1.4 billion has been traded on prediction markets for the 2026 midterms

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Prediction markets about the 2026 midterm elections have surpassed $1.4 billion in trading volume as Election Day fast approaches, according to a new CNN analysis.

This year has seen massive growth in the prediction industry , where people can bet on real-world events like sports, entertainment and the weather. While small-scale election markets have been around for a while, they gained traction before the 2024 presidential election and have seen huge numbers for the 2026 midterms.

Kalshi, the biggest US prediction company, has seen nearly $1.1 billion in trading volume on markets related to the midterms, according to a spokesperson. This includes markets about individual race outcomes, turnout numbers, prominent endorsements, whether candidates will debate, what will be said at campaign rallies and much more.

Its rival Polymarket has seen more than $340 million in trading volume on midterm-related markets, a spokesperson told CNN. This includes trading on Polymarket’s US-facing platform as well as its offshore site that’s popular with international users.

“It’s sizable,” said Dustin Gouker, an industry expert who writes a newsletter about prediction markets. “It’s still much less than sports and crypto markets, but it’s a lot of trading. And it’s valuable. It’s a meaningful signal that provides probabilities that aggregate polls and public sentiment.”

Gouker said trading is expected to significantly ramp up on Election Day, as professional bettors try to cash in on volatile changes in the markets while polls close across the country.

Still, as with gambling, most people who trade on prediction markets lose money .

The prediction frenzy has scrambled US political culture, with campaign staffers and donors obsessing over the odds. Federal regulators have pledged to crack down on insider trading related to the midterms, and Kalshi has already suspended six 2026 candidates for improperly betting on their own races.

Trading volume does not measure how much money has been wagered on a specific market. These figures capture the overall economic activity, in terms of how much money has changed hands before the market have been closed.

CNN has a partnership with Kalshi and uses its data to cover major events. But CNN editorial employees aren’t allowed to trade on prediction markets.

PredictIt, which bills itself as the “original political prediction market,” has been around since 2014. The company declined to provide dollar figures for its 2026 midterms trading volume, but co-founder John Aristotle Phillips said business has been growing because of the favorable regulatory climate.

The Biden administration took action against PredictIt and separately tried to shut down election markets in 2024. But PredictIt prevailed in court, and other federal courts ruled that election markets are permissible under federal law. The Trump administration has since embraced the industry and is finalizing new rules that protect election markets.

“There’s a hunger for information,” Phillips said. “Once the legal pathway is clear, as to how Americans can be allowed to spend a little bit of their own money to make forecasts, I think that’s going to be a good thing for everybody.”

Smaller companies are similarly seeing a boost, and some are trying to enter the US market before the 2028 presidential election, which has already drawn major betting.

ForecastEx, which is owned by Interactive Brokers, has seen more than $6.4 million in trading volume in markets about the midterms, a spokesman told CNN.

A UK-based prediction market, Smarkets, has seen about $200,000 in trading about the midterms among its British customers. It’s currently in the process of securing regulatory approval from the Trump administration to operate in the United States.

“It’s a completely new ball game,” Smarkets founder Jason Trost said. “It’s different this year because it’s legal and it’s widely available. Most of the money in prediction markets is sports. A small sliver is elections. But there’s a lot of interesting data you can get out of it.”

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据 CNN 最新分析显示，随着选举日的临近，有关 2026 年中期选举的预测市场交易量已超过 14 亿美元。

今年预测行业发展迅猛，人们可以对体育赛事、娱乐活动和天气等现实世界中的事件进行投注。虽然小规模的选举投注市场早已存在，但在2024年总统大选前夕才真正兴起，并在2026年中期选举中达到了惊人的规模。

据发言人透露，美国最大的预测公司Kalshi在与中期选举相关的市场交易量已接近11亿美元。这些市场涵盖了各个选区的选举结果、投票率、知名人士的背书、候选人是否参加辩论、竞选集会上的发言内容等等。

据CNN报道，其竞争对手Polymarket的一位发言人表示，该公司在中期选举相关市场上的交易量超过3.4亿美元。这包括Polymarket面向美国用户的平台以及深受国际用户欢迎的境外网站的交易量。

“规模相当可观，”撰写预测市场简报的行业专家达斯汀·古克尔表示，“虽然远不及体育和加密货币市场，但交易量依然很大。而且它很有价值。它是一个重要的信号，提供了综合民意调查和公众情绪的概率。”

古克表示，预计选举日当天交易量将大幅增加，因为职业赌徒会试图在全国各地投票站关闭期间，从市场的剧烈波动中获利。

然而，就像赌博一样，大多数在预测市场进行交易的人都会赔钱。

预测热潮扰乱了美国政治文化，竞选工作人员和捐款人对赔率趋之若鹜。联邦监管机构已承诺严厉打击与中期选举相关的内幕交易，卡尔希已经暂停了六名2026年总统候选人的参选资格，原因是他们不当投注了自己的选情。

交易量并非衡量特定市场上的投注金额，而是反映整体经济活动，即市场收盘前资金的流动量。

CNN与Kalshi建立了合作关系，并使用其数据报道重大事件。但CNN的编辑人员不允许参与预测市场交易。

自称“原创政治预测市场”的 PredictIt 自 2014 年以来一直存在。该公司拒绝提供其 2026 年中期选举交易额的美元数字，但联合创始人约翰·亚里士多德·菲利普斯表示，由于有利的监管环境，业务一直在增长。

拜登政府曾对PredictIt采取行动，并试图在2024年关闭选举预测市场。但PredictIt在法庭上胜诉，其他联邦法院也裁定选举预测市场在联邦法律下是合法的。此后，特朗普政府对该行业表示支持，并正在敲定保护选举预测市场的新规。

菲利普斯说：“人们渴望获得信息。一旦法律途径明确，允许美国人花一点自己的钱来做预测，我认为这对每个人都有好处。”

规模较小的公司也同样获得了提振，一些公司正试图在 2028 年总统大选之前进入美国市场，而此次大选已经吸引了大量赌注。

据一位发言人告诉 CNN，Interactive Brokers 旗下的 ForecastEx 平台在中期选举相关市场的交易量已超过 640 万美元。

总部位于英国的预测市场Smarkets，其英国客户中期选举相关交易额已达约20万美元。该公司目前正在申请特朗普政府的监管批准，以便在美国开展业务。

Smarkets创始人杰森·特罗斯特表示：“这完全是另一回事。今年的情况有所不同，因为它是合法的，而且普及度很高。预测市场的大部分资金都用于体育赛事，选举只占很小一部分。但你可以从中获得很多有趣的数据。”