Mike Johnson asks Trump for more midterm money as Republicans seek to avert disaster in House races

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In the final sprint to the midterms, Speaker Mike Johnson went to President Donald Trump with a crucial ask, according to a person familiar with the exchange. Johnson’s message: Could Trump spare more cash to help House Republicans in this tough political climate?

He wasn’t the only one making the case: Donors and lawmakers themselves have also been pleading with Trump’s inner orbit for more resources in key races, according to multiple people familiar with the discussion. Within days of Johnson’s ask, which was first reported by Punchbowl News, Trump’s political war chest dumped nearly $30 million into dozens of House races in a final push to help a jittery Republican Party avert disaster next month.

But as political conditions have deteriorated for House Republicans in recent weeks, GOP campaign operatives have been forced to abandon places where they usually go on offense, as they focus instead on protecting dozens of unexpectedly imperiled incumbents in traditionally red turf like Arizona, Ohio, Florida and Wisconsin.

For weeks, top Republicans have dismissed what they saw as Democrats’ long-shot attempts to oust GOP lawmakers in reliably red seats, like Reps. Brad Finstad of Minnesota, Mike Turner of Ohio or Jeff Crank in Colorado. Others, like Reps. Mike Carey of Ohio or Eli Crane of Arizona, were hardly even on Democrats’ radar.

But with eight days to go, multiple GOP operatives told CNN there is growing uncertainty about incumbents in unexpectedly competitive seats if the party base does not turn out – a factor that Republican leaders know will determine whether the Democrats can create a real blue wave.

“This is just a ‘batten down the hatches’ situation,” one GOP operative involved in House races told CNN, noting they have not seen an incumbent in a competitive district crack the 50% threshold in any recent internal polling.

The party is also shifting resources away from several seats that were redrawn to favor Republicans in the nationwide mid-decade partisan redistricting push. In the eleventh-hour, House GOP groups and their allies are pouring in millions to defend core incumbents in an attempt to hold onto a bulwark of traditionally red seats.

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GOP insiders have long feared the fate of their open seats — which have no incumbent – in places like Kentucky, Montana, Iowa and Arizona. Those places have trended toward Democrats in the last two weeks, operatives in both parties told CNN.

But now some Republicans are seeing signs of weakness in their incumbents’ polling — notably, a large chunk of undecided voters, who they fear could decide to sit out the election.

Johnson and his GOP campaign operation insist there is still a path to keeping their majority, and say they aren’t concerned about incumbents in those places that Trump won by double digits or more last cycle. But privately, party leaders are hearing an earful from rattled Republican lawmakers across the map who want more help from the national party in the final stretch, according to multiple people familiar with the discussions.

In North Carolina, numerous incumbents — including the House GOP’s campaign chief — are making last-minute moves to turn out voters in a state where national Republicans already appear to have lost hope in former RNC chairman Michael Whatley’s Senate race . In Texas, Republicans worry about the downballot effects of Senate GOP nominee Ken Paxton, as well as signs of a Latino swing toward Democrats.

There is perhaps the most panic among Florida incumbents, according to multiple Republican operatives, where GOP groups are dumping millions to help members in typically safe seats and to shore up other seats their own party specifically redrew to weaken Democrats. Privately, many are already pointing the blame at Gov. Ron DeSantis for redrawing the map , fearing the move has become a massive waste of resources — and at worst, a political disaster.

“There needs to be backlash against DeSantis over his dummy-mander,” one Florida Republican operative told CNN this week.

CNN has reached out to DeSantis’ team for comment.

Democrats, meanwhile, have gained confidence from their polling over the last two weeks. Some in the party are now seriously talking privately about winning a majority of 230 or more — a pickup of at least 16 seats, numerous operatives told CNN. Party leaders are eyeing seats that seemed out of reach just weeks earlier, like that of famously resilient moderate GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in Pennsylvania, who survived Democrats’ last blue wave in 2018.

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Fitzpatrick is now one of Republicans’ biggest funding priorities in the final days: The GOP’s leading super PAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund, has more than $3.5 million worth of ad time reserved for the race for the final two weeks through Election Day, according to data from AdImpact.

Even in this tough environment, Johnson and his campaign arm privately believe they can still flip a half-dozen Democrat-held seats. Nearly all are in blue states where Republicans believe voters are more likely to take out their anger on local Democrats — including their member of Congress — than Trump and the GOP.

Trump’s stockpile of campaign cash, which totaled more than $400 million entering September, has also become a crucial lifeline for the party. A pair of super PACs funded by his operation has poured more than $150 million into House races since the start of September, per AdImpact. And CLF, the leading super PAC, is projected to spend more than $200 million on ads this cycle. The party has ample cash reserves and donor support.

Republicans feel most confident about a pair of Democratic-held districts in Trump country — Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez’s in southern Washington state and an open seat in northern Maine. A seat in New Mexico that’s traded party control four times this decade also remains in contention.

Then there are the roughly dozen seats in North Carolina, Texas, Florida and Ohio where Republicans redrew boundaries to make it easier to oust Democrats. (Several Republicans told CNN that even on a bad night, they still believe they’ll pick up at least five seats: one each in North Carolina and Ohio, and two in Texas and Florida, on top of the redrawn seats in Tennessee, Alabama and Louisiana.)

“The fact is, as evidenced by crisscrossing the country on behalf of candidates and raising over a half billion dollars, the Speaker fervently believes Republicans can and will hold the House majority,” a senior member of Johnson’s team told CNN.

But Republicans widely acknowledge that most of their traditional battleground targets are out of reach in such a treacherous cycle. And hundreds of millions in super PAC support is contending with an expanding map.

“The money needed to go somewhere else,” one GOP operative who works on House races said, describing the party’s retreat from typical offensive seats. “A mix of the environment and candidate quality moved them away.”

The Congressional Leadership Fund pulled out of seats like New York’s 3rd District, held by Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi, while drawing down much of its ad bookings against freshman Democratic Rep. Adam Gray in California’s 13th District. He won by just 187 votes last cycle, but his district was also redrawn as part of state Democrats’ redistricting push to counter Republicans in Texas.

Republicans also pulled money out of a South Texas seat they’ve dreamed of flipping for decades and even redrew in partisan redistricting last year: Texas’ 28th District. Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar is facing his most serious general election contest from a celebrated GOP recruit, Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina. But after canceling $2 million in remaining ad time, CLF has less than $100,000 booked there for the final two weeks.

Even earlier, the group had abandoned two incumbents in battleground districts formerly at the top of both parties’ target lists: Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa, after spending more than $6 million there, and Tom Kean in New Jersey, having already invested $2 million.

Meanwhile, money is flowing to the defense of incumbents in deep red territory. One of the Trump super PACs is set to spend more than $2 million through Election Day defending Crane in Arizona’s 2nd District, which the president carried by 15 points in 2024.

In the final weeks, top Republicans are most anxious about the huge number of open seats, a result of this cycle’s exodus of more than 40 GOP lawmakers from the House.

Ad bookings for the final weeks reflect that anxiety. CLF is spending $9 million on ads in Michigan’s 10th District, which Trump won by 6.5 points. Multiple GOP groups are moving millions to South Carolina’s 1st District, which Trump won by 13 points. And one of the president’s super PACs is spending more than $3 million in Montana’s 1st District, which he won by 10 points.

The same Trump-aligned group steered more funds into open seats like Texas’ 23rd District and Kentucky’s 6th, both of which Trump won by roughly 15 points.

Open seats in previously more competitive territory, like Arizona’s 1st and Nebraska’s 2nd Districts, are likely already gone for Republicans, as well as North Carolina’s 11th District, where party leaders had to pressure their incumbent to resign after an ethics scandal, according to multiple GOP operatives. No Going Back PAC, one of the Trump groups, exited that North Carolina race this week, cutting more than $1 million in planned ads after spending more than $4 million on the contest.

In Florida, top Republicans believe their jittery incumbents will ultimately survive. But some are nervous about one race in particular — an open seat in the Orlando area where scandal-plagued Rep. Cory Mills was ousted in a late summer primary.

“They should be nervous about this race,” Bale Dalton, the centrist Democrat running in the seat, told CNN this week. Dalton, a former NASA chief of staff and Navy captain, is battling former TV anchor Ryan Elijah, who only officially entered the race in August after the late primary.

There is some grumbling among Democrats, too, over where the money is going.

One Democratic operative — Phil Gardner, who is involved with the moderate Blue Dog Coalition’s political arm — told CNN he is furious that national Democrats have refused to spend for their endorsed candidate, Dalton, in Florida’s 7th District.

He complained Democrats have spent money to back an incumbent in a redrawn Florida seat that’s extremely difficult to win. (Other Democrats privately believe the 7th District is too difficult to flip, now that Mills is no longer their GOP opponent.)

“They are unwilling to make the tough but strategic decision to spend for Bale and admit that Darren Soto is not going to win… They are making a decision driven by caucus politics and not by the strategy of flipping the House,” Gardner said.

And perhaps no race better encapsulates the late scramble to move money around than Florida’s 25th District.

The district was also redrawn to favor Republicans earlier this year, but Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz remains in contention after weathering millions in attack ads.

On Monday, the Trump-aligned No Going Back PAC initially cut more than $2 million from its remaining bookings, briefly leaving it with no future ad time after spending more than $7 million on the contest.

But on Thursday, No Going Back PAC dramatically re-entered the contest, adding more than $6 million to its bookings over the final days of the midterms.

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据一位知情人士透露，在中期选举的最后冲刺阶段，众议院议长迈克·约翰逊向唐纳德·特朗普总统提出了一项至关重要的请求。约翰逊的请求是：在当前严峻的政治形势下，特朗普能否拨出更多资金来帮助众议院共和党人？

并非只有他一人提出这一诉求：据多位知情人士透露，捐款人和议员们也一直在恳求特朗普的核心圈子在关键选战中投入更多资源。约翰逊提出这一请求后几天内（Punchbowl News率先报道了此事），特朗普的政治资金就向数十场众议院选举投入了近3000万美元，试图在最后关头帮助忐忑不安的共和党避免下个月的惨败。

但随着最近几周众议院共和党人的政治形势恶化，共和党竞选人员被迫放弃了他们通常发起进攻的地方，转而集中精力保护数十位在亚利桑那州、俄亥俄州、佛罗里达州和威斯康星州等传统共和党票仓中意外陷入困境的现任议员。

数周以来，共和党高层一直对民主党试图在共和党传统票仓选区（例如明尼苏达州的布拉德·芬斯塔德、俄亥俄州的迈克·特纳和科罗拉多州的杰夫·克兰克）击败共和党议员的企图不屑一顾，认为这些尝试胜算渺茫。至于其他一些候选人，例如俄亥俄州的迈克·凯里和亚利桑那州的伊莱·克莱恩，则几乎不在民主党的考虑范围之内。

但距离大选还有八天，多位共和党人士告诉 CNN，如果党内基本盘不出来投票，那么在一些出人意料的竞争激烈的选区，现任议员的处境将越来越不明朗——共和党领导人知道，这一因素将决定民主党能否掀起真正的蓝色浪潮。

一位参与众议院竞选的共和党人士告诉 CNN：“这只是一个‘严阵以待’的情况。”他指出，在最近的内部民调中，他们还没有看到任何一位在竞争激烈的选区中当选的议员的支持率超过 50%。

该党还在将资源从几个在全国范围内的中期党派选区重划中被重新划分、有利于共和党的席位转移出去。在最后关头，众议院共和党团体及其盟友正投入数百万美元，试图保住这些传统上支持共和党的席位。

通往2026年中期选举的道路现在开始

每周，亚伦·布莱克都会以犀利的分析，拨开政治迷雾，深入剖析可能决定国会控制权的选情、候选人和趋势。订阅《20/26 视野》周刊，了解今年中期选举的最新动态。

共和党内部人士长期以来一直担心他们在肯塔基州、蒙大拿州、爱荷华州和亚利桑那州等地的空缺席位（这些席位目前没有现任议员）的命运。两党人士都告诉CNN，在过去两周里，这些地区的选情趋势已经转向民主党。

但现在一些共和党人看到现任议员的民调支持率出现疲软迹象——尤其是很大一部分尚未决定投票意向的选民，他们担心这些选民可能会选择弃权。

约翰逊及其共和党竞选团队坚称，他们仍有办法保住多数席位，并表示并不担心在上届选举中特朗普以两位数或以上优势获胜的选区，现任议员的席位会受到影响。但据多位知情人士透露，私下里，共和党领导人听到了来自各地不安的共和党议员们的强烈呼声，他们希望在最后冲刺阶段得到全国党的更多支持。

在北卡罗来纳州，包括众议院共和党竞选主席在内的多位现任官员正在做最后的努力，争取选民支持。此前，共和党全国委员会似乎已经对前共和党全国委员会主席迈克尔·沃特利在该州的参议院竞选失去了信心。在德克萨斯州，共和党人担心参议院共和党候选人肯·帕克斯顿的参选会对其他选举产生影响，同时也担忧拉丁裔选民转向民主党的迹象。

据多位共和党人士透露，佛罗里达州现任议员的恐慌情绪或许最为强烈。共和党各团体正投入数百万美元，以帮助其成员保住原本稳固的席位，并巩固其他一些被共和党重新划分选区以削弱民主党的席位。私下里，许多人已将矛头指向州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯，指责他重新划分选区，担心此举会造成巨大的资源浪费，甚至在最坏的情况下，会酿成一场政治灾难。

“必须对德桑蒂斯的傀儡命令进行反击，”一位佛罗里达州共和党人士本周告诉 CNN。

CNN已联系德桑蒂斯团队寻求置评。

与此同时，民主党人从过去两周的民调中信心大增。多位党内人士向CNN透露，一些民主党人现在私下里认真讨论着赢得230个或更多席位的多数优势——至少要增加16个席位。党内领导人正将目光投向几周前看似遥不可及的席位，例如宾夕法尼亚州以韧性著称的温和派共和党众议员布莱恩·菲茨帕特里克（Brian Fitzpatrick）的席位。菲茨帕特里克在2018年民主党的“蓝色浪潮”中幸存了下来。

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菲茨帕特里克现在是共和党在最后几天最重要的资金支持对象之一：根据 AdImpact 的数据，共和党的主要超级政治行动委员会“国会领导基金”已为这场竞选预留了价值超过 350 万美元的广告时间，用于选举日前的最后两周。

即便在如此艰难的环境下，约翰逊及其竞选团队私下里仍然相信他们能够拿下六个由民主党把持的席位。这些席位几乎都位于民主党占优势的州，共和党人认为，在这些州，选民更有可能将怒火发泄在当地的民主党人身上——包括他们的国会议员——而不是特朗普和共和党身上。

特朗普的竞选资金储备，截至9月初已超过4亿美元，也成为共和党的关键生命线。据AdImpact报道，自9月初以来，由特朗普团队资助的两个超级政治行动委员会（Super PAC）已向众议院选举投入超过1.5亿美元。而领先的超级政治行动委员会CLF预计将在本轮选举周期中花费超过2亿美元用于广告宣传。共和党拥有充足的现金储备和捐助者支持。

共和党人对特朗普票仓中的两个民主党把持选区最有信心——分别是华盛顿州南部众议员玛丽·格鲁森坎普·佩雷斯的选区和缅因州北部的一个空缺席位。新墨西哥州的一个席位也仍在争夺之中，该席位在本十年内已四次易手。

此外，在北卡罗来纳州、德克萨斯州、佛罗里达州和俄亥俄州，共和党人重新划分了选区，以便更容易地将民主党人赶下台，这四个州大约有十几个席位。（几位共和党人告诉CNN，即使当晚情况不佳，他们仍然相信至少能赢得五个席位：北卡罗来纳州和俄亥俄州各一个，德克萨斯州和佛罗里达州各两个，再加上田纳西州、阿拉巴马州和路易斯安那州重新划分的席位。）

“事实上，正如他为候选人奔走全国各地并筹集了超过5亿美元所证明的那样，议长坚信共和党人能够并且将会保住众议院的多数席位，”约翰逊团队的一位高级成员告诉CNN。

但共和党人普遍承认，在如此险恶的选举周期中，他们的大多数传统摇摆州都已遥不可及。数亿美元的超级政治行动委员会（Super PAC）支持也面临着选情不断扩大的局面。

一位参与众议院竞选的共和党人士在描述该党放弃以往擅长的进攻性选区时说：“资金需要转移到其他地方。环境和候选人素质的双重影响促使他们放弃了这些选区。”

国会领导基金退出了纽约州第三选区（民主党众议员汤姆·苏奥齐的席位）等选区的竞选活动，同时大幅减少了针对加州第十三选区民主党新晋众议员亚当·格雷的广告投放。格雷在上届选举中仅以187票的微弱优势获胜，但他的选区也因德克萨斯州民主党为对抗共和党而进行的选区重划而被重新划分。

共和党人还撤回了在德克萨斯州南部一个他们梦寐以求想要翻盘的席位——德克萨斯州第28选区——的竞选资金。这个选区是民主党众议员亨利·奎利亚尔(Henry Cuellar)的选区，他正面临着迄今为止最严峻的大选挑战，对手是共和党力捧的新人——韦伯县法官塔诺·蒂赫里纳(Tano Tijerina)。然而，在取消了剩余的200万美元广告投放后，CLF在该选区最后两周的广告预算不足10万美元。

更早之前，该组织就放弃了两个在摇摆选区担任议员的候选人，这两个选区此前一直是两党重点关注的目标：爱荷华州的众议员玛丽安内特·米勒-米克斯（Mariannette Miller-Meeks），此前已在该选区花费超过 600 万美元；以及新泽西州的众议员汤姆·基恩（Tom Kean），此前已在该选区投入 200 万美元。

与此同时，大量资金正涌入共和党传统票仓，用于捍卫现任议员的席位。特朗普的一个超级政治行动委员会计划在选举日之前花费超过200万美元，用于保住亚利桑那州第二选区议员克莱恩的席位。特朗普在2024年大选中以15个百分点的优势赢得了该选区。

在最后几周，共和党高层最担心的是大量空缺席位，这是由于本届选举周期中超过 40 名共和党议员离开众议院所致。

最后几周的广告投放情况反映了这种焦虑。CLF在密歇根州第十选区（特朗普以6.5个百分点的优势获胜）投入了900万美元的广告费。多个共和党团体正将数百万美元投入南卡罗来纳州第一选区（特朗普以13个百分点的优势获胜）。总统的一个超级政治行动委员会也在蒙大拿州第一选区（特朗普以10个百分点的优势获胜）投入了超过300万美元的广告费。

与特朗普结盟的同一团体将更多资金投入到德克萨斯州第 23 选区和肯塔基州第 6 选区等空缺席位，特朗普在这两个选区都以大约 15 个百分点的优势获胜。

一些此前竞争更为激烈的选区，例如亚利桑那州第一选区和内布拉斯加州第二选区，以及北卡罗来纳州第十一选区，共和党可能已经无缘该选区。据多位共和党人士透露，在北卡罗来纳州第十一选区，共和党领导人不得不向现任议员施压，迫使其在道德丑闻后辞职。特朗普的竞选团体之一“不回头”（No Going Back）政治行动委员会本周退出了北卡罗来纳州的竞选，在花费超过400万美元后，削减了超过100万美元的广告投放计划。

在佛罗里达州，共和党高层相信他们那些焦虑不安的现任议员最终会保住席位。但有些人尤其担心一场选举——奥兰多地区的一个空缺席位，丑闻缠身的众议员科里·米尔斯在夏末的初选中落败。

“他们应该对这场竞选感到紧张，”竞选该席位的中间派民主党候选人贝尔·道尔顿本周告诉CNN。道尔顿曾任美国宇航局参谋长和海军上校，他的对手是前电视主播瑞安·伊利亚，后者在初选结束后才于8月正式宣布参选。

民主党内部也存在一些抱怨，不满资金的去向。

一位民主党人士——菲尔·加德纳（Phil Gardner），他是温和派蓝狗联盟政治部门的成员——告诉 CNN，他对全国民主党人拒绝为他们在佛罗里达州第七选区支持的候选人道尔顿（Dalton）花钱感到非常愤怒。

他抱怨说，民主党人花钱支持一位在佛罗里达州重新划分选区后极难获胜的现任议员。（其他民主党人私下里认为，既然米尔斯不再是他们的共和党对手，那么第七选区就太难翻盘了。）

“他们不愿意做出艰难但具有战略意义的决定，即花钱支持贝尔，并承认达伦·索托不会获胜……他们的决定是受党团政治驱动的，而不是受翻转众议院的战略驱动的，”加德纳说。

或许没有哪场竞选比佛罗里达州第 25 选区的竞选更能体现最后时刻资金调动的混乱局面了。

今年早些时候，该选区也进行了重新划分，以利于共和党，但民主党众议员贾里德·莫斯科维茨在经受住数百万美元的攻击性广告后，仍然保持着竞争力。

周一，与特朗普结盟的“不回头”政治行动委员会最初削减了剩余广告预订的 200 多万美元，在为此次竞选花费超过 700 万美元后，一度失去了未来的广告时间。

但周四，“不回头”政治行动委员会戏剧性地重新加入竞选，在期中选举的最后几天里，其捐款额增加了 600 多万美元。