[ANALYSIS] North Korea's diversifying missile arsenal complicates South's defense

North Korea has expanded its missile testing across land, naval and purported submarine platforms this year, increasing the range of weapons and attack options facing South Korean and U.S. defenses. Experts said combat data from Russia’s war in Ukraine may have helped improve missile accuracy, while tests also point to efforts to carry heavier warheads and evade interception. However, North Korea’s claims about its capabilities remain unverified, and experts said it has not demonstrated a reliable ability to strike the U.S. mainland. South Korea tested its first domestically developed hypersonic glide vehicle on Oct. 8.

North Korea recorded 16 ballistic missile launches through Oct. 12, compared with six in all of 2025 and 12 in 2024.

Cruise missile tests took place on seven occasions through Oct. 14, including launches involving the Choe Hyon and Kang Kon destroyers and a purported submarine platform.

Shin Jong-woo assessed that a missile tested on Oct. 12, identified as the Hwasong-11 Da-2.5, carried a 2.5-metric-ton warhead and was fired nearly 1,000 kilometers.

Pyongyang claimed five Hwasong-11 Ra missiles tested on April 19 struck an area of 12.5 to 13 hectares, but the damage area was not independently verified.

For the Oct. 3 missile launch, North Korea claimed a flight of approximately 1,000 kilometers, while South Korea assessed more than 700 kilometers and Japan estimated about 680 kilometers.

Published Oct 24, 2026 7:00 am KST

Heavier warheads, maneuvering weapons, sea-based launches pose greater threats

North Korea test-fires a tactical ballistic missile near Pyongyang, Oct. 12, in this photo released by the Korean Central News Agency the following day. Yonhap

North Korea is displaying an increasingly diverse missile arsenal this year, firing from different platforms — on land, aboard warships and, according to Pyongyang, underwater from a submarine — while testing weapons designed to carry heavier warheads, maneuver to evade interception and inflict damage over wider areas.

The frequency of missile tests has also increased, with 16 ballistic missile launches recorded through Oct. 12, which exceeds the six recorded in all of 2025 and 12 in 2024.

But what's more threatening than the frequency of ballistic missiles is diversification, with cruise missile tests added on seven occasions through Oct. 14, involving land-based launchers, destroyers and, purportedly, a submarine.

The expanding arsenal gives North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s military more options to approach targets from different directions and coordinate strikes, placing greater demands on South Korean and U.S. defenses even as questions remain over Pyongyang's technological claims.

This table shows North Korea's missile launches in 2026

Widening range of weapons

This year's ballistic launches began near Pyongyang on Jan. 4 with suspected Hwasong-11 Ma hypersonic missiles.

North Korea then fired large-caliber rockets on Jan. 27 and 600-millimeter super-large rockets, known as KN-25, from Sunan on March 14.

Testing intensified in April — a suspected ballistic missile’s track disappeared shortly after launch on April 7, followed by two separate firings the next day, including what the North claimed was a Hwasong-11 Ga, or KN-23, cluster-warhead test. Hwasong-11 Ra missiles were then fired on April 19.

North Korea went on to test close-range ballistic missiles on May 26 and tactical ballistic missiles with special-purpose warheads on June 25.

August brought further firings of ballistic missiles on Aug. 6 and 12, followed by suspected KN-25 rockets on Aug. 20.

Ballistic missiles also featured in a combined exercise on Sept. 12, before a claimed Hwasong-11 Ma-1 hypersonic test on Sept. 20.

The sequence continued with a claimed hypersonic intermediate-range missile launch on Oct. 3 and launches of different ballistic missile types on Oct. 12.

Separately, the destroyer Choe Hyon fired strategic cruise missiles on March 4 and 10.

A mobile short-range anti-aircraft missile system was tested during the April 6–8 weapons-testing series, followed by strategic cruise and anti-ship missile launches from Choe Hyon on April 12.

Tactical cruise missiles with claimed artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted guidance were tested alongside guided artillery rockets on May 26.

The destroyer Kang Kon tested a strategic cruise missile on July 3, while tactical cruise missiles joined rockets and attack drones in the Sept. 12 exercise.

On Oct. 14, Pyongyang tested two cruise missile types purportedly launched from a submarine. The precise underwater launch platform remain unconfirmed.

Greater destructive potential

Asked how much North Korea’s missiles have advanced and how serious a threat they pose, experts said combat data from Russia’s war against Ukraine has helped Pyongyang improve their accuracy and ability to pinpoint targets in South Korea.

North Korea has deployed troops to fight alongside Russian forces and also supplied ballistic missiles.

“North Korea has significantly improved their accuracy using data obtained from the war in Ukraine. This year’s launches can be seen as drawing on those accumulated findings,” said Yang Uk, a research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies.

“Years of development have made the Pyongyang’s missiles more reliable, with recent efforts focused on hitting targets more precisely,” he added.

A security think tank analyst described this year’s tests as efforts “to make missile performance more consistent by incorporating combat experience and technology or information from Russia.”

“Greater missile accuracy inevitably increases North Korea’s ability to strike targets in South Korea precisely,” said the analyst, who asked not to be named.

Specific launches also suggest Pyongyang is developing weapons that can carry heavier warheads and evade interception, according to other experts.

Shin Jong-woo, secretary-general of the Korea Defense and Security Forum, identified one missile tested on Oct. 12 as the Hwasong-11 Da-2.5, assessing that it carried a 2.5-metric-ton warhead.

“They demonstrated they could fire such a powerful warhead nearly 1,000 kilometers,” Shin said.

Hong Min, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, pointed to the Sept. 20 and Oct. 3 hypersonic missile tests as signs of efforts to evade interception at different ranges.

“It goes beyond showcasing individual weapons to demonstrating an entire family of systems,” Hong said.

Warheads that scatter smaller explosives or mines could also cause damage over wider areas and disrupt roads or airfields, a threat highlighted by the April 19 Hwasong-11 Ra test.

Pyongyang claimed five missiles struck an area of 12.5 to 13 hectares, although the damage area was not independently verified.

Questions remain over capabilities

Despite those advances, experts remained skeptical that North Korea had secured a reliable capability to strike the U.S. mainland, a central goal of its missile program.

“It is still nowhere near being able to consistently strike the U.S. mainland. That is not an easy capability to acquire,” Yang said.

Kwak Jin-o, a research professor at Pai Chai University, cautioned against overstating the gains from the Ukraine war.

“Expecting North Korea to perfect its missiles through experience in a single war is asking too much,” he said.

The extent of North Korea’s progress in maneuvering also remains unverified.

For instance, Pyongyang claimed the missile launched on Oct. 3 flew approximately 1,000 kilometers, compared with South Korea’s assessment of more than 700 kilometers and Japan’s estimate of about 680 kilometers.

The North Korean leader’s powerful sister, Kim Yo-jong, also claimed AI-assisted low-altitude maneuvering.

"Those claims and differing flight-distance estimates do not establish whether the weapons achieved their stated maneuvering capabilities," Kwak said.

South Korea’s Defense Intelligence Agency assessed that stable hypersonic gliding technology remained insufficient despite technical progress.

Seoul tests own hypersonic technology

Meanwhile, South Korea conducted its first domestically developed hypersonic glide vehicle test on Oct. 8.

The system is still under development.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff assessed that existing South Korean and U.S. defenses could detect and intercept the North’s recently launched missiles.

But Shin warned that coordinated attacks involving missiles, rockets and drones could “paralyze our military’s air defenses.”

Hong called for stronger low-altitude surveillance, closer real-time information sharing among Seoul, Washington and Tokyo, and improvements to multilayer defenses.

今年，朝鲜扩大了陆基、海基以及据称的潜射平台导弹试验范围，增加了韩国和美国防御系统面临的武器种类和攻击选择。专家表示，俄罗斯在乌克兰战争中的实战数据可能有助于提高导弹精度，而试验也表明朝鲜正在努力携带更重的弹头并规避拦截。然而，朝鲜关于其导弹能力的说法仍未得到证实，专家表示，朝鲜尚未展现出可靠打击美国本土的能力。韩国于10月8日试射了其首架国产高超音速滑翔飞行器。

截至 10 月 12 日，朝鲜共进行了 16 次弹道导弹发射，而 2025 年全年仅有 6 次，2024 年也只有 12 次。

截至 10 月 14 日，巡航导弹试验共进行了七次，其中包括“崔贤”号和“康坤”号驱逐舰以及据称的潜艇平台的发射。

申钟宇评估认为，10月12日试射的导弹，被确认为火星-11 Da-2.5，携带2.5吨重的弹头，射程近1000公里。

平壤方面声称，4月19日试射的5枚火星-11“拉”型导弹击中了12.5至13公顷的区域，但受损区域尚未得到独立核实。

对于 10 月 3 日的导弹发射，朝鲜声称飞行距离约为 1000 公里，而韩国评估的飞行距离超过 700 公里，日本估计约为 680 公里。

发布于2026年10月24日 上午7:00（韩国标准时间）

更重的弹头、机动性更强的武器以及海基发射都构成更大的威胁。

朝鲜中央通讯社次日发布的照片​​显示，10月12日，朝鲜在平壤附近试射了一枚战术弹道导弹。（韩联社）

今年，朝鲜展示了日益多样化的导弹武库，从不同的平台发射导弹——陆地、军舰，以及据平壤方面称，从潜艇上发射——同时测试旨在携带更重弹头、机动躲避拦截并在更大范围内造成破坏的武器。

导弹试验的频率也有所增加，截至 10 月 12 日，已记录到 16 次弹道导弹发射，超过了 2025 年全年记录的 6 次和 2024 年记录的 12 次。

但比弹道导弹的频繁试射更具威胁性的是导弹的多样化，截至 10 月 14 日，巡航导弹试验增加了 7 次，涉及陆基发射装置、驱逐舰，据称还有潜艇。

不断扩充的武器库使朝鲜领导人金正恩的军队有更多选择从不同方向接近目标并协调打击，这对韩国和美国的防御提出了更大的要求，尽管平壤的技术主张仍存在疑问。

此表显示了朝鲜2026年的导弹发射情况。

扩大武器种类

今年的弹道导弹发射于 1 月 4 日在平壤附近开始，疑似发射了火星-11 Ma 高超音速导弹。

随后，朝鲜于 1 月 27 日发射了大口径火箭，并于 3 月 14 日从顺安发射了 600 毫米超大型火箭（即 KN-25）。

4月份试验强度加大——4月7日，一枚疑似弹道导弹发射后不久轨迹消失；次日又进行了两次独立试射，其中包括朝鲜声称的“火星-11 Ga”（或称KN-23）集束弹头试验。4月19日，朝鲜又试射了“火星-11 Ra”导弹。

朝鲜于 5 月 26 日试射了近程弹道导弹，并于 6 月 25 日试射了带有特殊用途弹头的战术弹道导弹。

8 月 6 日和 12 日又发生了弹道导弹试射，随后 8 月 20 日疑似发射了 KN-25 火箭。

9 月 12 日，弹道导弹也参加了联合演习；9 月 20 日，据称进行了“火星-11 Ma-1”高超音速导弹试验。

随后，10 月 3 日据称发射了一枚高超音速中程导弹，10 月 12 日又发射了不同类型的弹道导弹。

此外，驱逐舰崔贤号分别于3月4日和10日发射了战略巡航导弹。

4月6日至8日的武器试验期间，测试了一种移动式短程防空导弹系统；随后，4月12日，从崔贤导弹发射场发射了战略巡航导弹和反舰导弹。

5月26日，据称采用人工智能（AI）辅助制导的战术巡航导弹与制导火箭一起进行了测试。

7月3日，驱逐舰康昆号测试了一枚战略巡航导弹；9月12日的演习中，战术巡航导弹与火箭弹和攻击无人机一同亮相。

10月14日，平壤试射了两枚巡航导弹，据称是从潜艇上发射的。具体的潜艇发射平台尚未得到证实。

更大的破坏潜力

当被问及朝鲜导弹的研发进展如何以及构成多严重的威胁时，专家表示，俄罗斯对乌克兰战争的作战数据帮助平壤提高了导弹的精度和精确打击韩国目标的能力。

朝鲜已向俄罗斯军队派遣军队并肩作战，并提供了弹道导弹。

“朝鲜利用从乌克兰战争中获得的数据，显著提高了导弹发射的精准度。今年的导弹发射可以看作是对这些积累成果的借鉴，”峨山政策研究所研究员杨宇表示。

“多年的发展使平壤的导弹更加可靠，最近的努力重点是更精确地打击目标，”他补充道。

一位安全智库分析师将今年的测试描述为“通过融入来自俄罗斯的实战经验、技术或信息，使导弹性能更加稳定”。

这位不愿透露姓名的分析人士表示：“导弹精度的提高必然会增强朝鲜精确打击韩国目标的能力。”

其他专家也表示，一些具体的发射行动表明，平壤正在研发能够携带更重弹头并躲避拦截的武器。

韩国国防安全论坛秘书长申钟宇确认，10 月 12 日试射的一枚导弹为火星-11 Da-2.5，并评估其携带 2.5 吨重的弹头。

申说：“他们证明了他们能够将如此强大的弹头发射到近1000公里远的地方。”

韩国统一研究院高级研究员洪敏指出，9 月 20 日和 10 月 3 日的高超音速导弹试验表明，韩国正在努力规避不同距离的拦截。

“这不仅仅是展示单个武器，而是展示一整套系统，”洪说。

散布小型炸药或地雷的弹头也可能对更广阔的区域造成破坏，并扰乱道路或机场，4 月 19 日的“火星-11 Ra”试验凸显了这一威胁。

平壤方面声称有五枚导弹击中了12.5至13公顷的区域，但受损区域尚未得到独立核实。

关于能力方面仍存在疑问。

尽管取得了这些进展，但专家们仍然怀疑朝鲜是否已经获得了可靠的打击美国本土的能力，而这正是其导弹计划的核心目标。

杨说：“它距离能够持续打击美国本土还差得很远。这并非易事。”

培柴大学研究教授郭振五告诫不要过分夸大乌克兰战争的成果。

他说：“指望朝鲜通过一场战争的经验来完善其导弹技术，这要求太高了。”

朝鲜在军事行动中取得的进展程度仍有待核实。

例如，平壤声称10月3日发射的导弹飞行了约1000公里，而韩国评估的飞行距离超过700公里，日本估计的飞行距离约为680公里。

朝鲜领导人的妹妹金与正也声称实现了人工智能辅助的低空机动飞行。

“这些说法和不同的飞行距离估计并不能确定这些武器是否达到了其所宣称的机动能力，”郭说。

韩国国防情报局评估认为，尽管技术取得了进步，但稳定的高超音速滑翔技术仍然不足。

首尔测试了其高超音速技术

与此同时，韩国于10月8日进行了首次国产高超音速滑翔飞行器试验。

该系统仍在开发中。

韩国联合参谋本部评估认为，韩国和美国现有的防御系统能够探测并拦截朝鲜最近发射的导弹。

但申警告说，涉及导弹、火箭和无人机的协同攻击可能会“瘫痪我军的防空能力”。

洪呼吁加强低空监视，加强首尔、华盛顿和东京之间的实时信息共享，并改进多层防御。