Brazil’s election tests Lula’s leftist legacy against Bolsonaro’s right-wing movement

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Brazilians return to the polls on Sunday to choose between two candidates campaigning on sharply different versions of the country amid growing concerns over crime, corruption, and a broader rightward shift among Latin American voters .

Leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80, entered this month’s presidential election as the favorite by nearly every poll, hoping to secure a fourth term and extend a political career that has shaped the country for more than two decades.

He instead has found himself in a runoff with Flávio Bolsonaro , the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, whose stronger-than-expected performance in a first round of voting upended predictions and turned one of Latin America’s most prominent left-wing leaders into the election’s underdog.

The octogenarian’s challenge is to secure another term after a decades-long political career, while Bolsonaro, 45, attempts to keep his first-round momentum and carry it into a final victory.

The outcome of Sunday’s vote will have repercussions far beyond Brazil. As right-wing governments gain ground across Latin America, the runoff could determine whether the region’s largest country becomes an ally of the Trump administration — if Flavio accomplishes something his father could not in 2022: defeat Lula at the ballot box.

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According to Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court , Bolsonaro secured 2.2 million votes more than Lula in the first round of voting. Neither candidate reached the majority needed to win outright, forcing both campaigns to compete for a shrinking pool of undecided voters while trying to mobilize their supporters in a country deeply divided over its political future.

The result exposed vulnerabilities in Lula’s reelection bid, from frustration over the cost of living and crime to difficulties mobilizing parts of his traditional base. It also showed that Jair Bolsonaro’s movement remains strong, even as the former president serves a prison sentence for attempting to overturn his 2022 defeat.

Public safety has emerged as one of the defining issues of the campaign. A September Quaest/Pax survey found that 28% of Brazilians saw violence as the country’s biggest problem, followed by corruption at 22% and the economy at 19%.

“That is ground that strongly favors the Bolsonaros, because they have made a tough approach on crime their flagship issue from the beginning,” said Brian Winter, editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly and vice president of policy at Americas Society/Council of the Americas.

Flávio has promised to designate major criminal factions as terrorist groups, expand prisons and lower the age of criminal responsibility. “Those who think I’m radical on public security haven’t seen anything yet,” he said October 13, adding that even El Salvador’s infamous hardline approach under President Nayib Bukele was not enough.

Lula has struggled to reconcile his party’s traditional positions with demands for tougher action. A widely circulated clip of him saying last year that drug traffickers were also victims of drug users reinforced what Winter called a “longstanding perception that the Brazilian left is soft on crime.” Lula later acknowledged that he had expressed himself poorly.

In last Sunday’s televised debate , Bolsonaro pressed Lula over temporary prison leave. Lula defended rehabilitation but said serious offenders should not qualify, then questioned whether Bolsonaro would pardon his father. Flávio did not respond directly during the exchange, but he has repeatedly said he wants Jair Bolsonaro to accompany him up the presidential palace ramp at his inauguration.

That exchange followed what is seen as the runoff campaign’s most striking shifts: in an effort to appeal to voters, Lula signaled support for lowering the age of criminal responsibility from 18 to 16 for certain serious crimes, though he opposed including it in a pending constitutional amendment.

Winter described the shift as “as close to anathema as you can get in his workers’ party,” which has opposed such a change for decades.

“Lula is now yielding in the campaign’s final days because he recognizes that this may be his biggest vulnerability,” he said, adding that the change illustrates how far Lula is willing to move toward more conservative voters despite a history of resistance to such measures.

Lula has faced criticism about the state of the economy and affordability. During his first two terms, a commodities boom helped lift millions of Brazilians out of poverty and into the middle class.

This time, many voters say they feel little progress. Lula can point to low unemployment and easing inflation, but those indicators have not changed perceptions for households struggling with everyday prices.

Winter compared the dynamic to the 2024 US presidential election, when favorable statistics failed to overcome frustration with prices under President Joe Biden and then-Vice President Kamala Harris.

Adriano Machado/Reuters

“The headline numbers for the economy look good,” Winter said. “But everyday people keep saying that they don’t feel like the economy is prospering. They feel like their standard of living has declined.”

Still, many voters remain loyal to Lula because of the social gains made during his first two terms, while fearing that a Bolsonaro presidency could roll back social rights.

Flávio has sought to counter those concerns by distancing himself from some traditionally conservative positions. On October 16, Congress promulgated a constitutional amendment ending Brazil’s traditional six-day workweek, gradually reducing the maximum workweek without cutting pay. After previously opposing the proposal, Bolsonaro reversed course and voted in favor.

“This is another case of the Bolsonaros being ideologically flexible enough to get elected,” Winter said. “Both sides are doing this in the race’s final days. It’s breathtaking.”

But if there’s one key group both candidates need to win over, both experts and campaigns agree : it’s women.

Women account for nearly 53% of registered voters and have been more resistant to Bolsonaro-aligned candidates than men. An October 15 Datafolha survey put Lula ahead among women by 49% to 40%, while Flávio led among men by 52% to 40%.

“Women are the key demographic,” Winter said.

Malu Gatto, an associate professor of Latin American politics at University College London, said the gender gap widened after Jair Bolsonaro emerged in 2018, as men gravitated toward the right and women became more supportive of the Workers’ Party.

Both campaigns have also addressed violence against women, particularly femicide, after several brutal cases drew national attention. Brazil recorded 1,571 femicides in 2025 , the highest number since the crime was defined in law in 2015, according to the Brazilian Forum on Public Safety.

According to Gatto, the right traditionally emphasizes tougher criminal penalties for aggressors, while the left places greater emphasis on protection and support for victims, including shelters and specialized services.

In his first televised advertisement , Flávio placed his wife and daughters front and center. “At home, they’re the ones in charge. And that’s a good thing,” he said – a notable choice for a political movement whose support has traditionally been stronger among men.

Former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro, elected to the Senate this month, has also become key to recruiting women into the Liberal Party. For that reason, a public feud she had with Flávio was one of the most troubling parts of his campaign; although it was later resolved, it underscored the group’s importance in the election.

“Michelle has her own electoral capital, among women and among evangelicals,” Gatto said. “She has legitimacy with women and evangelicals in a way Flávio doesn’t.”

Evangelicals, a growing demographic in the predominately Catholic country, have turned into an important voting bloc for the right. Datafolha found Bolsonaro leading among evangelicals by 62% to 29%, while Lula led among Catholics by 52% to 42%.

Geography will also matter. Roughly 40% of Brazil’s electorate lives in the Southeast, where Flávio won 51.4% of valid votes in the first round, compared with 39.7% for Lula. The right-wing senator carried all four states in the region, including São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro — the country’s three largest electoral states.

Minas Gerais has backed the eventual winner in every direct presidential election since 1989. “Its mix of industrialized cities and poorer rural communities makes it a microcosm of Brazil’s political divisions,” said Lucas Fernandes, a political analyst at consulting firm BMJ.

Lula narrowly beat Jair Bolsonaro there in 2022. This time, Flávio won with 48.24% of valid votes against Lula’s 43.33% — a difference of nearly 590,000 votes.

Douglas Magno/AFP/Getty Images

In Northeast, Lula’s stronghold, his first-round margin was smaller than in previous elections. His share of valid votes in Maranhão fell by nearly five percentage points — the sharpest decline in the region — underscoring the challenge of mobilizing his traditional base.

But the challenge isn’t just changing voters’ minds — it’s mobilizing those who stayed home in the first round.

One in five eligible Brazilian voters abstained, a potentially consequential group in a race where just 2.2 million votes separated the candidates. And with 94% of voters telling Datafolha they had already made up their minds, getting supporters to the polls could prove just as important as persuading the few who remain undecided.

The first-round result raised an uncomfortable question for Lula’s campaign and political analysts alike: How did a president who defeated Jair Bolsonaro end up losing to his son, a candidate initially considered less politically appealing than his father?

“I think the most important takeaway is that today’s Brazil is turning right,” Winter said, adding that voters have become “more conservative over the last 10 to 15 years.”

The shift reflects a broader electoral trend across Latin America, where several presidential elections since April 2025 — in Ecuador, Bolivia, Honduras, Chile, Costa Rica, Colombia and Peru — have resulted in victories for right-wing or center-right candidates.

A July Datafolha survey found 44% of Brazilians leaning right or center-right in their political values, compared with 39% on the left or center-left, reversing the balance measured in 2022.

Fernandes points out the prevalence of tactical voting — when voters abandon their preferred candidate for one with a better chance of winning or defeating a rival — as an explanation for the first-round surprise in early October.

Brian Snyder/Reuters

Tierney L. Cross/Reuters

“All the alternative candidates, at least the competitive ones, were on the right,” Fernandes told CNN. “So Flávio was much more likely than Lula to benefit from that shift in tactical voting, because he is ideologically much closer to the other candidates who were in the race.”

Another factor, Fernandes said, is the deep rejection of Lula’s Workers’ Party, which runs strong among Brazilians who don’t identify with the Bolsonaro movement but are determined to stop Lula’s reelection. That sentiment is even stronger now than in 2022, when Lula benefited from widespread opposition to Jair Bolsonaro after a presidency marked by controversy over his government’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Fernandes also points to Lula’s campaign underestimating the importance of social media, while the right has long made it central to its strategy. “The right understood this and applied it on several fronts, not just to Flávio’s candidacy, while the left failed to make that transition,” Fernandes said.

“The most important venue for Brazilian politics today is WhatsApp,” Winter agreed, describing how family groups and private conversations influenced by memes and short videos can shape decisions in the final days of a campaign.

The difference was reflected in campaign spending. According to financial disclosures filed with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court, paid social media was Flávio’s second-largest campaign expense in the first round, and Lula’s sixth-largest.

Miguel Schincariol/AFP/Getty Images

Part of the shift to the right in Brazil is due to the association of the left with corruption, although scandals have shadowed both campaigns.

During Sunday’s debate, Lula challenged Bolsonaro to open his financial records and pressed him over his ties to Daniel Vorcaro, the former head of the collapsed Banco Master, whose alleged connections to powerful figures have embroiled Brazil’s political and judicial establishment, including the Supreme Court. Flávio, meanwhile, accused Lula of corruption and raised allegations involving the president’s eldest son, known as Lulinha. Lula’s previous corruption convictions were annulled in 2021.

On Monday, Lula said he would submit documents to Brazil’s electoral court authorizing the disclosure of his banking and telephone records, along with those of his five children, and said it would release the data if Flávio Bolsonaro did the same for himself, his family, and his businesses. In response, Flávio said he would accept the challenge if Lula also opened the banking and tax records of his former chief of staff and disclosed first lady Janja da Silva’s expenses along with presidential corporate-card spending.

The corruption allegations are deepening political fatigue in Brazil, say experts. “It reinforces the disgust and apathy that Brazilians feel with their political system as a whole,” Winter told CNN.

US President Donald Trump has praised Flávio Bolsonaro’s electoral performance but stopped short of formally endorsing him, even as his administration’s tariffs on Brazil and pressure over Jair Bolsonaro’s prosecution have strained relations with Lula.

The tensions surfaced again during Sunday’s debate. Lula accused the Bolsonaro family of aligning itself with US interests at Brazil’s expense, while Flávio rejected the charge and criticized Lula’s foreign policy.

A Bolsonaro victory could bring Latin America’s largest economy closer to the US, particularly on security and organized crime, and strengthen a wave of conservative governments elected across the region. Lula has instead emphasized multilateralism, ties with the Global South and China — Brazil’s largest export market — and his resistance to Trump’s tariff measures as a defense of national sovereignty.

Brazilians return to the polls on October 25 to choose between two candidates campaigning on sharply different versions of the country amid growing concerns over crime, corruption, and a broader rightward shift among Latin American voters . CNN's Julia Vargas Jones reports.

The next president will face a more conservative Congress. A narrow result could also test the country’s stability after Jair Bolsonaro’s attempts to overturn his 2022 defeat led to the January 8, 2023, attacks on government institutions. Bolsonaro denies wrongdoing.

For Lula, a win would mean another political comeback. For Flávio, it would mark the return of his father’s movement to the presidency despite Jair Bolsonaro’s conviction and imprisonment.

Maira Erlich/彭博社/盖蒂图片社

巴西人将于周日再次前往投票站，在两名候选人之间做出选择。这两名候选人提出的国家发展愿景截然不同，而与此同时，人们对犯罪、腐败以及拉丁美洲选民中更广泛的右倾趋势的担忧也在日益加剧。

现年 80 岁的左翼总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦在本月的总统选举中几乎在所有民意调查中都被视为热门人选，他希望获得第四个任期，并延续其塑造该国二十多年的政治生涯。

相反，他却发现自己要与弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗（前总统雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗的长子）进行第二轮投票。弗拉维奥在第一轮投票中表现强于预期，颠覆了之前的预测，并将这位拉丁美洲最杰出的左翼领导人之一变成了选举中的弱势一方。

这位八旬老人面临的挑战是在长达数十年的政治生涯后确保连任，而 45 岁的博尔索纳罗则试图保持他在第一轮选举中的势头，并将其转化为最终的胜利。

周日的投票结果将产生远超巴西的影响。随着右翼政府在拉丁美洲势力不断壮大，这场决选可能决定该地区最大的国家巴西是否会成为特朗普政府的盟友——前提是弗拉维奥能够做到他父亲在2022年未能做到的事：在选举中击败卢拉。

毛罗·皮门特尔/法新社/盖蒂图片社

根据巴西最高选举法院的统计，博索纳罗在首轮投票中比卢拉多获得220万张选票。由于两位候选人均未获得直接胜选所需的多数票，双方竞选团队不得不争夺日益减少的未决选民，同时还要努力动员支持者。巴西国内对政治未来走向存在严重分歧。

选举结果暴露了卢拉连任竞选的诸多弱点，包括民众对生活成本和犯罪问题的不满，以及难以动员其部分传统支持者。这也表明，即便前总统博索纳罗因试图推翻2022年败选结果而被判入狱，他的政治运动依然强劲。

公共安全已成为此次竞选活动的关键议题之一。Quaest/Pax 9 月份的一项调查发现，28% 的巴西人认为暴力是该国最大的问题，其次是腐败（22%）和经济（19%）。

“这方面对博索纳罗家族非常有利，因为他们从一开始就把严厉打击犯罪作为他们的旗舰议题，”《美洲季刊》主编、美洲协会/美洲理事会政策副总裁布莱恩·温特说。

弗拉维奥承诺将主要犯罪团伙认定为恐怖组织，扩建监狱，并降低刑事责任年龄。他在10月13日表示：“那些认为我在公共安全问题上激进的人还没见识到真正的实力。”他还补充说，即使是萨尔瓦多在纳伊布·布克莱总统领导下臭名昭著的强硬路线也远远不够。

卢拉一直难以调和其所在政党的传统立场与民众要求采取更强硬措施的呼声。去年，一段广为流传的视频显示，他声称毒贩也是吸毒者的受害者，这进一步强化了温特所说的“巴西左翼对犯罪软弱的长期印象”。卢拉后来承认自己当时的表达不当。

在上周日的电视辩论中，博索纳罗就临时出狱问题向卢拉施压。卢拉支持罪犯改造，但表示重罪犯不应符合条件，随后又质问博索纳罗是否会赦免他的父亲。弗拉维奥在辩论中没有直接回应，但他曾多次表示，希望父亲雅伊尔·博索纳罗能陪同他走上总统府的坡道，参加他的就职典礼。

在这次交锋之前，人们看到了决选竞选中最引人注目的转变：为了争取选民的支持，卢拉表示支持将某些严重犯罪的刑事责任年龄从 18 岁降低到 16 岁，尽管他反对将其纳入正在审议的宪法修正案中。

温特将这种转变描述为“在他所在的工人党内几乎是不可饶恕的”，该党几十年来一直反对这种变革。

“卢拉在竞选的最后阶段做出让步，是因为他意识到这可能是他最大的软肋，”他说，并补充说，这一变化表明，尽管卢拉过去一直抵制此类措施，但他现在愿意向更保守的选民靠拢到什么程度。

卢拉因其经济状况和生活成本问题而饱受批评。在他前两届任期内，大宗商品繁荣帮助数百万巴西人摆脱贫困，步入中产阶级。

这一次，许多选民表示他们感觉不到什么进展。卢拉可以列举低失业率和通胀放缓的迹象，但这些指标并没有改变那些为日常物价上涨而苦苦挣扎的家庭的看法。

温特将这种动态比作 2024 年美国总统大选，当时有利的统计数据未能消除人们对乔·拜登总统和卡马拉·哈里斯副总统执政期间物价上涨的不满。

阿德里亚诺·马查多/路透社

温特说：“经济总体数据看起来不错，但普通民众却不断抱怨经济并未繁荣发展，反而感觉生活水平下降了。”

尽管如此，许多选民仍然忠于卢拉，因为他在前两个任期内取得了社会进步，同时他们也担心博索纳罗当选总统可能会倒退社会权利。

弗拉维奥试图通过与一些传统的保守立场保持距离来消除这些担忧。10月16日，国会通过了一项宪法修正案，结束了巴西传统的六天工作制，逐步缩短最长工作周，但不会降低工资。博索纳罗此前曾反对这项提案，但后来改变了立场，投了赞成票。

温特说：“这再次证明博索纳罗家族在意识形态上足够灵活，能够赢得选举。双方都在竞选的最后阶段这样做，真是令人叹为观止。”

但专家和竞选团队一致认为，两位候选人都需要赢得一个关键群体的支持：那就是女性。

女性选民占登记选民的近53%，她们对博索纳罗阵营候选人的抵制程度高于男性。10月15日《Datafolha》的一项民调显示，卢拉在女性选民中的支持率为49%，领先于卢拉的40%；而弗拉维奥在男性选民中的支持率为52%，领先于弗拉维奥的40%。

“女性是关键人群，”温特说。

伦敦大学学院拉丁美洲政治学副教授马鲁·加托表示，自2018年雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗上台以来，性别差距扩大了，因为男性倾向于右翼，而女性则更加支持劳工党。

这两项运动都关注了针对妇女的暴力行为，特别是杀害女性罪，此前几起残忍案件引起了全国关注。据巴西公共安全论坛统计，巴西2025年记录在案的杀害女性罪案件为1571起，是自2015年该罪名被写入法律以来的最高数字。

加托表示，右翼传统上强调对施暴者处以更严厉的刑事处罚，而左翼则更重视对受害者的保护和支持，包括提供庇护所和专门服务。

在弗拉维奥的第一则电视广告中，他将妻子和女儿放在了最显眼的位置。“在家里，她们说了算。这很好，”他说——对于一个传统上以男性支持者为主的政治运动来说，这是一个引人注目的选择。

本月当选参议员的前第一夫人米歇尔·博尔索纳罗也成为自由党招募女性成员的关键人物。正因如此，她与弗拉维奥之间的公开争执成为弗拉维奥竞选期间最令人担忧的事件之一；尽管此事后来得以解决，但却凸显了女性群体在选举中的重要性。

“米歇尔在女性选民和福音派选民中拥有自己的选举资本，”加托说。“她在女性选民和福音派选民中拥有弗拉维奥所不具备的合法性。”

在天主教徒占多数的阿根廷，福音派信徒人数不断增长，已成为右翼的重要票仓。Datafolha 的调查显示，博索纳罗在福音派信徒中以 62% 对 29% 的优势领先，而卢拉在天主教徒中以 52% 对 42% 的优势领先。

地理位置也将起到关键作用。巴西约40%的选民居住在东南部，弗拉维奥在首轮投票中赢得了51.4%的有效选票，而卢拉的得票率为39.7%。这位右翼参议员赢得了该地区的全部四个州，包括圣保罗州、米纳斯吉拉斯州和里约热内卢州——这三个州是巴西最大的三个选举州。

自 1989 年以来，米纳斯吉拉斯州在每一次总统直选中都支持了最终的获胜者。“该州既有工业化城市，也有较贫困的农村社区，这使其成为巴西政治分裂的一个缩影，”咨询公司 BMJ 的政治分析师卢卡斯·费尔南德斯说。

2022 年，卢拉在那里险胜博索纳罗。这一次，弗拉维奥以 48.24% 的有效选票击败卢拉的 43.33% 的选票获胜——相差近 59 万张选票。

道格拉斯·马格诺/法新社/盖蒂图片社

在卢拉的传统票仓东北部，他的首轮投票优势比以往选举有所缩小。他在马拉尼昂州的有效选票份额下降了近5个百分点，是该地区降幅最大的，这凸显了动员其传统支持者所面临的挑战。

但挑战不仅在于改变选民的想法，还在于动员那些在第一轮投票中待在家里的选民。

五分之一的巴西合格选民弃权，在候选人票数仅相差220万张的选举中，这可能是一个举足轻重的群体。据Datafolha报道，94%的选民表示他们已经决定了投票意向，因此，动员支持者投票与说服少数尚未决定的选民同样重要。

第一轮投票结果给卢拉的竞选团队和政治分析人士都带来了一个棘手的问题：一位击败了雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗的总统，怎么会输给自己的儿子，而这位儿子最初被认为在政治上不如他父亲有吸引力呢？

“我认为最重要的结论是，今天的巴西正在右倾，”温特说，并补充说，选民在过去 10 到 15 年里变得更加保守。

这一转变反映了拉丁美洲更广泛的选举趋势，自 2025 年 4 月以来，厄瓜多尔、玻利维亚、洪都拉斯、智利、哥斯达黎加、哥伦比亚和秘鲁的几届总统选举均以右翼或中右翼候选人获胜告终。

Datafolha 7 月份的一项调查发现，44% 的巴西人在政治价值观上倾向于右翼或中右翼，而 39% 的人倾向于左翼或中左翼，这与 2022 年的调查结果相反。

费尔南德斯指出，策略性投票的盛行——选民放弃自己喜欢的候选人，转而支持更有可能获胜或击败竞争对手的候选人——是造成 10 月初第一轮投票意外结果的原因。

布莱恩·斯奈德/路透社

蒂尔尼·L·克罗斯/路透社

费尔南德斯告诉CNN：“所有其他候选人，至少是那些有竞争力的候选人，都是右翼的。因此，弗拉维奥比卢拉更有可能从这种策略性投票的转变中受益，因为他的意识形态与其他候选人更为接近。”

费尔南德斯表示，另一个因素是民众对卢拉的劳工党深恶痛绝。劳工党在那些不认同博索纳罗运动但决心阻止卢拉连任的巴西民众中拥有强大的影响力。这种情绪如今比2022年更加强烈。当时，卢拉受益于民众对博索纳罗的广泛反对，后者因其政府应对新冠疫情不力而饱受争议。

费尔南德斯还指出，卢拉的竞选团队低估了社交媒体的重要性，而右翼长期以来一直将其作为战略的核心。“右翼明白这一点，并将其运用到多个方面，而不仅仅是弗拉维奥的竞选活动中，而左翼却未能完成这种转变，”费尔南德斯说道。

“如今巴西政治最重要的场所是 WhatsApp，”温特表示赞同，并描述了受表情包和短视频影响的家庭群组和私人对话如何在竞选的最后几天左右决策。

这一差异体现在竞选支出上。根据提交给巴西高等选举法院的财务披露文件，付费社交媒体是弗拉维奥在第一轮竞选中的第二大支出，也是卢拉的第六大支出。

米格尔·辛卡里奥尔/法新社/盖蒂图片社

巴西政治右倾的部分原因是左翼与腐败联系在一起，尽管丑闻也给双方的竞选蒙上了阴影。

在周日的辩论中，卢拉要求博索纳罗公开其财务记录，并就其与已倒闭的马斯特银行前行长丹尼尔·沃卡罗的关系向他施压。沃卡罗涉嫌与多位权势人物勾结，已使巴西政界和司法界，包括最高法院，深陷丑闻。与此同时，弗拉维奥指责卢拉腐败，并提出了涉及总统长子卢利尼亚的指控。卢拉此前的腐败定罪已于2021年被撤销。

周一，卢拉表示，他将向巴西选举法院提交文件，授权公开他本人及其五个子女的银行和电话记录。他还表示，如果弗拉维奥·博索纳罗也公开自己、家人和企业的相关信息，卢拉也将公开这些数据。作为回应，弗拉维奥表示，如果卢拉同时公开其前任幕僚长的银行和税务记录，并披露第一夫人扬娅·达席尔瓦的开支以及总统公务信用卡支出，他将接受挑战。

专家表示，这些腐败指控加剧了巴西民众的政治疲劳。“这强化了巴西民众对整个政治体制的厌恶和冷漠，”温特告诉CNN。

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普赞扬了弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗的选举表现，但并未正式支持他，尽管他的政府对巴西征收关税以及对雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗的起诉施压已经使他与卢拉的关系紧张。

周日的辩论中，双方的紧张关系再次浮出水面。卢拉指责博索纳罗家族为了维护美国利益而牺牲巴西的利益，而弗拉维奥则驳斥了这一指控，并批评了卢拉的外交政策。

博索纳罗若胜选，可能会使拉丁美洲最大的经济体巴西与美国走得更近，尤其是在安全和打击有组织犯罪方面，并巩固该地区一系列保守派政府的崛起。而卢拉则强调多边主义，重视与全球南方国家和中国（巴西最大的出口市场）的关系，并以捍卫国家主权为由，抵制特朗普的关税措施。

巴西将于10月25日再次举行大选，两位候选人将就国家发展方向展开截然不同的竞选活动。与此同时，民众对犯罪、腐败以及拉丁美洲选民普遍存在的右倾趋势日益担忧。CNN记者朱莉娅·瓦格斯·琼斯报道。

下一任总统将面对一个更为保守的国会。此次选举结果若与上届总统差距较小，也可能考验该国的稳定。此前，博索纳罗曾试图推翻2022年的败选结果，导致2023年1月8日政府机构遭到袭击。博索纳罗否认有任何不当行为。

对卢拉而言，胜选意味着他政治生涯的再次复兴。对弗拉维奥而言，胜选则标志着他父亲领导的运动重返总统宝座，尽管雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗已被定罪入狱。