Economic woes transform the Midwest into a massive midterms battleground

Jeff Kowalsky/AFP/Getty Images

Democrats could be poised for a revival in the heartland, as furor over high costs and doubt about President Donald Trump’s willingness to change the nation’s trajectory threaten to loosen the GOP’s grip on working-class voters.

A decade after the Trump era began, when he first turned Midwestern political battlegrounds into reliably Republican states, the fallout from policies of his second term have rippled through the agriculture sector and broader economies across the Great Plains and the Rust Belt.

Iowa and Ohio, which have not been competitive since former President Barack Obama was on the ballot, are in play. And ruby-red states like Kansas, Nebraska and Indiana are not exempt. The shift is happening up and down the ballot, with tight contests for the House, Senate and governor blanketing the middle of the country.

From spring planting to fall harvest, anxiety over Trump’s war with Iran and the fallout from his trade battles has turned into alarm.

In conversations across the region, voters point to the soaring cost of gas and diesel , as well as high grocery prices and interest rates. A whipsaw tariff policy has forced farmers to pay more for fertilizer, while some manufacturers, footing higher bills for imported components, have laid off workers. Trump’s decision to allow imported beef has infuriated ranchers. And spending cuts targeting healthcare and grant programs have caused further strain.

Promises to revitalize the nation’s manufacturing sector remain unfulfilled. And even before the Iran war sent costs soaring, several of these battleground states were in fiscal decline.

Iowa, for example, recorded the weakest annual growth rate in the country in 2025, according to the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis, a searing indictment for Republicans who have had control of state government for more than a decade.

“I think everybody in agriculture is tired, would be the best way to put it. They’re just tired,” Steve Kuiper, a farmer and president of the Iowa Corn Growers Association, told CNN. “They feel very beat up right now, demoralized.”

Why the farm squeeze is turning Iowa into a midterm toss-up

It has all fueled a hunger for change — and created an opening for Democratic candidates.

“A lot of the promises the president made to bring costs down, to not start new foreign wars, to deliver on his economic message, have not come to fruition,” said Beau Bayh, the third-generation scion of Indiana’s most famous Democratic political family. If he wins his race for secretary of state, he’d be the first member of his party to win statewide in Indiana in 14 years.

Trump knows better than most presidents that midterm elections are a reflection — and referendum — on the party in power. He experienced it in 2018, when Republicans held control of the Senate but lost their majority in the House — including three seats in Iowa. GOP officials tell CNN they fear a repeat of that scenario.

Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

The travel plans of both parties tell the tale, with Trump set to visit Michigan on Sunday after making stops in Ohio, Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa in a monthlong campaign blitz. Obama traveled to Michigan and Ohio on Saturday, rallying support in two states he once won.

Polls suggest voters are willing to punish the Republicans in power in Washington, even though they also hold dim views of the Democratic brand.

“It’s not that they’ve been overwhelmed by the Democratic Party, it’s just that they’re really, really pissed off,” Tom Vilsack, a Democratic former Iowa governor, told CNN. “They want to send a message of disappointment. When you’re upset with someone, you want to find a way to send a message. You don’t swallow it, you send that message.”

Vilsack, who served two terms as agriculture secretary in the Obama administration, said economic frustrations across the agriculture and manufacturing sectors have been rising long before the Trump era. But he said the promises Trump made during his three campaigns, particularly when he pledged to bring prices down only two years ago, are feeding the anger.

“He builds up the hope that it’s going to be fundamentally different,” Vilsack said. “That was interpreted that he’s going to bring back the good times. He failed to do that.”

Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who was the last Republican to win that office in his reelection two decades ago, said Trump would be better off talking about rising costs and how he intends to change course.

“It’s going to be a blue wave,” Pawlenty told CNN. “We just don’t know if it’s knee-deep, waist-deep, or going to hit us right in the face.”

The House is all but certain to fall from GOP control, he said, but added: “The real chance for Republicans to salvage something out of this is to hang on to the Senate and that’s a real possibility.”

In Iowa and Ohio, Democrats have a shot at winning Senate races that are crucial to the net four-seat gain they need to claim a majority — a goal that eluded them in 2018. Their odds look even better in those states’ governor’s races, potentially giving the party a foothold in statehouses where Republicans have trifectas: control of the executive, legislative and judicial branches.

But the Democratic revival could extend even further. Megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton has the GOP scrambling to save the seat of Sen. Roger Marshall in Kansas . An independent candidate, Dan Osborn, has rallied Democratic support and thrown a curveball into Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts’ bid for a second term in Nebraska.

And a slew of House seats across the Midwest held by Republicans are in play. Democrats believe they could win as many as three GOP-held seats each in Iowa and Ohio, plus potentially four more in Michigan. The party is also targeting an Omaha-based district in Nebraska and one in southeastern Wisconsin’s Driftless Area. If the election breaks in Democrats’ favor in a big way, another House seat in Nebraska, as well as one seat each in Indiana and Kansas, could also prove to be much more competitive than either party expected early in the 2026 election cycle.

Republicans aren’t conceding any of those races. And they believe they have Democrats on defense in the Upper Midwest — particularly Michigan, where progressive former public health official Abdul El-Sayed is locked in an expensive and bitter Senate race against Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers.

Speaking in Sioux City, Iowa, on Thursday, Trump urged voters to pretend he was on the ballot and vote to ensure a “booming Iowa economy.”

“If you get out and vote like you did in 2024, we win in a landslide, you know, we win in a landslide,” he said

Even as the president boasts of America’s golden age, with an economy envied by the world, he also makes clear he understands the challenges people are facing. At most every stop along the way of his red-state October blitz, he has offered sweeteners to voters if they stick with Republican candidates.

From $8 billion in new aid to farmers announced in Kansas to promises of building the nation’s largest steel plant in eastern Iowa to a commitment he made in Nebraska to temporarily ease diesel costs, Trump has made a series of pledges that follow his offer of giving every adult American $5,000 if Republicans retain their grip on Washington. The promises are barely even repeated by GOP candidates, who know they ring hollow with many voters.

Democrats acknowledge the uphill climb for winning all of the narrowly divided Senate races across the Midwest, particularly given their own brand and favorability challenges. But Republican officials wonder whether Trump’s extensive travels to many of these states will backfire on down-ballot races.

“When our leader, the president himself, does things that make me cringe, that’s difficult to tell people to vote for me,” said Jim Howell, a Republican member of the Sedgwick County Board of Commissioners in Wichita, who is also on the November ballot. “I really wish we had leaders that don’t make us cringe, but help us consider a way to come together.”

A question hanging over the final week of the race is whether Trump’s relentless campaigning has awakened Republican voters to rally to his aid one last time in hopes of closing an enthusiasm gap. Iowa could be a place to watch, given Trump’s long history of winning there and his decision to hold two rallies in opposite corners of the state in the homestretch.

But the president’s approach, a little more than one week from Election Day, has been to double down on the policies that have led many voters to sour on his second term.

In Trump’s Sunday trip to Michigan, he’ll hold a rally at Port Huron — on the Canadian border. It will put on display his tariff battle with the United States’ northern neighbor, even though the party’s Senate nominee, former Rep. Mike Rogers, has attempted to break with Trump over the tariffs.

“Here in Michigan, we know that Canada is not our enemy. We need to end this tariff war — now,” Rogers said in a television ad his campaign launched this month.

The GOP’s best hope might be to lean into the cultural battles that have helped them win over White, rural, working-class voters in recent elections. In Michigan, both Trump and Rogers have attempted to brand the Democratic nominee, El-Sayed, as supportive of extremist Islamist interests.

But Democrats are fighting back. El-Sayed in recent days began airing an ad that features clips of Republicans and conservative media figures, including Fox News hosts, saying nice or helpful things about him and his campaign.

Before those clips play, he lists issues where he suggests common cause with some in the MAGA movement, such as releasing the Jeffrey Epstein files and combatting Washington corruption.

Ohio is another headache for Republicans. The party’s nominee for governor, Vivek Ramaswamy, faced sharp criticism from the man he is running to replace, two-term GOP Gov. Mike DeWine, for airing a controversial advertisement featuring the mother of his Democratic opponent, Amy Acton.

Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

Both Ramaswamy and the president have dug in, defending the ad — and in doing so have turned the race into a test of whether voters will accept Trumpian tactics from candidates who are not Trump.

And what’s receded from the forefront is the issue Ohio voters who spoke with CNN in recent days — including Republicans who support Ramaswamy — said is responsible for the state’s sudden competitiveness: the cost of living.

“We all have to get gas. I have to go get gas right now in my car, and that’s difficult,” said Sheri Vorherr, a 55-year-old mother of five from Loveland who volunteered at a Ramaswamy rally in Cincinnati on Wednesday. She said she helps her oldest daughter buy groceries each week and sees the economic pinch brought on by inflation.

“I don’t think it’s an easy fix. I think it’s things that are going to take time,” she said. “I do believe Trump is trying to do that — it’s just taking a lot longer.”

CNN’s Phil Mattingly contributed to this report.

Jeff Kowalsky/AFP/Getty Images

由于民众对高昂的医疗成本感到愤怒，并且对唐纳德·特朗普总统改变国家发展方向的意愿表示怀疑，这有可能削弱共和党对工薪阶层选民的控制，民主党人或许有望在中西部地区迎来复兴。

在特朗普时代开始十年后，他首次将中西部政治战场变成了共和党的铁票仓，而他第二个任期的政策所带来的影响已经波及到大平原和铁锈地带的农业部门和更广泛的经济领域。

自前总统奥巴马参选以来，爱荷华州和俄亥俄州一直没有激烈的竞争，如今这两个州的选情却变得胶着起来。就连堪萨斯州、内布拉斯加州和印第安纳州这些传统上的共和党州也未能幸免。这种变化正在各个层级的选举中发生，众议院、参议院和州长选举的激烈角逐席卷了美国中部地区。

从春季播种到秋季收获，人们对特朗普与伊朗的战争以及贸易战的后果的焦虑已经变成了恐慌。

在整个地区的对话中，选民们纷纷指出汽油和柴油价格飙升，以及食品杂货价格和利率高企。反复无常的关税政策迫使农民支付更高的化肥价格，而一些制造商由于进口零部件成本上涨，不得不裁员。特朗普允许进口牛肉的决定激怒了牧场主。此外，针对医疗保健和补助项目的支出削减也加剧了经济压力。

振兴国家制造业的承诺仍未兑现。而且，甚至在伊朗战争导致成本飙升之前，这些关键州中的几个就已经陷入财政衰退。

例如，根据联邦经济分析局的数据，爱荷华州在 2025 年的年增长率是全国最低的，这对控制州政府十多年的共和党人来说是一个严厉的指责。

“我觉得农业从业者都很疲惫，这么说最贴切。他们真的太累了，”爱荷华州玉米种植者协会主席、农民史蒂夫·库珀告诉CNN。“他们现在感觉身心俱疲，士气低落。”

为什么农业紧缩让爱荷华州的中期选举变成势均力敌的局面

这一切都激发了人们对变革的渴望，并为民主党候选人创造了机会。

“总统做出的许多降低开支、不发动新的对外战争、兑现经济承诺的保证，都没有实现，”博·贝赫说道。他是印第安纳州最著名的民主党政治家族的第三代传人。如果他赢得州务卿的竞选，他将成为14年来首位在印第安纳州赢得全州选举的民主党成员。

特朗普比大多数总统都更清楚，中期选举是对执政党的一次反映和公投。他在2018年就亲身经历过这一点，当时共和党虽然保住了参议院的控制权，却失去了众议院的多数席位，其中包括爱荷华州的三个席位。共和党官员告诉CNN，他们担心这种情况会重演。

安娜·莫尼梅克/盖蒂图片社

双方的出行计划都说明了这一点：特朗普在为期一个月的竞选闪电战中先后访问了俄亥俄州、堪萨斯州、内布拉斯加州和爱荷华州，并将于周日前往密歇根州。奥巴马则于周六前往密歇根州和俄亥俄州，在他曾经赢得的两个州争取支持。

民调显示，选民们愿意惩罚华盛顿执政的共和党人，尽管他们对民主党也抱有负面看法。

“他们并非被民主党压倒，而是真的非常非常生气，”爱荷华州前民主党州长汤姆·维尔萨克告诉CNN。“他们想表达失望之情。当你对某人不满时，你会想办法表达出来。你不会把不满憋在心里，你会把这种情绪传递出去。”

曾在奥巴马政府担任两届农业部长的维尔萨克表示，农业和制造业的经济困境早在特朗普时代之前就已出现。但他指出，特朗普在三次竞选期间做出的承诺，尤其是两年前承诺降低物价，加剧了民众的愤怒。

维尔萨克说：“他让人们燃起了希望，认为情况会从根本上有所不同。人们解读为他要重现昔日的辉煌。但他失败了。”

明尼苏达州前州长蒂姆·波伦蒂是20年前最后一位赢得该职位的共和党人，他表示，特朗普最好谈谈不断上涨的成本以及他打算如何改变路线。

“这将是一股蓝色浪潮，”波伦蒂告诉CNN。“我们只是不知道这股浪潮是只到膝盖，齐腰深，还是会直接扑面而来。”

他说，众议院几乎肯定会失去共和党的控制权，但他补充道：“共和党人真正有机会挽回局面的，是保住参议院的控制权，而这并非不可能。”

在爱荷华州和俄亥俄州，民主党人有机会赢得参议院席位争夺战，这对于他们获得多数席位所需的净增四个席位至关重要——这是他们在2018年未能实现的目标。他们在这些州的州长选举中胜算更大，这可能会使该党在共和党完全掌控行政、立法和司法部门的州议会中站稳脚跟。

但民主党的复兴势头可能还会进一步增强。大型教会牧师亚当·汉密尔顿让共和党人不得不紧急应对，以保住堪萨斯州参议员罗杰·马歇尔的席位。独立候选人丹·奥斯本赢得了民主党人的支持，给内布拉斯加州共和党参议员皮特·里基茨的连任之路带来了变数。

中西部地区众多由共和党把持的众议院席位岌岌可危。民主党认为，他们有望在爱荷华州和俄亥俄州各赢得多达三个共和党把持的席位，并在密歇根州再添四个席位。该党还将目标锁定在内布拉斯加州奥马哈市的一个选区以及威斯康星州东南部无冰碛区的一个选区。如果选举结果对民主党大有裨益，那么内布拉斯加州的另一个众议院席位，以及印第安纳州和堪萨斯州各一个席位，在2026年大选周期初期，竞争可能会比两党预期的更加激烈。

共和党人并未承认在任何一场选举中落败。他们认为，在中西部北部地区，尤其是在密歇根州，民主党人处于守势。密歇根州的进步派前公共卫生官员阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德正与共和党前众议员迈克·罗杰斯展开一场耗资巨大且竞争激烈的参议院选举。

周四，特朗普在爱荷华州苏城发表讲话，敦促选民们假装他的名字出现在选票上，并投票以确保“爱荷华州经济蓬勃发展”。

“如果你们像2024年那样积极投票，我们就会大获全胜，真的，我们会大获全胜，”他说。

尽管总统吹嘘美国正处于黄金时代，经济实力令世界艳羡，但他同时也明确表示，他理解民众面临的挑战。在他十月大选期间，几乎每到一处共和党传统票仓州，他都会向选民提供一些好处，以鼓励他们继续支持共和党候选人。

从堪萨斯州宣布向农民提供80亿美元的新援助，到承诺在爱荷华州东部建造全美最大的钢铁厂，再到他在内布拉斯加州做出的暂时降低柴油价格的承诺，特朗普做出了一系列承诺，而这些承诺都源于他此前提出的如果共和党继续掌控华盛顿，就向每位成年美国人发放5000美元的提议。共和党候选人几乎从未重复过这些承诺，因为他们知道这些承诺在许多选民眼中显得空洞无物。

民主党人承认，在中西部地区所有选情胶着的参议院席位争夺战中，他们面临着艰巨的挑战，尤其考虑到自身形象和支持率方面的劣势。但共和党官员则担心，特朗普频繁造访这些州是否会对其他州的选举产生不利影响。

“当我们的领导人，也就是总统本人，做出让我感到尴尬的事情时，我很难说服人们投票给我，”吉姆·豪厄尔说道。他是威奇托市塞奇威克县委员会的共和党委员，也将在11月的选票上出现。“我真希望我们的领导人不会让我们感到尴尬，而是能够帮助我们思考如何团结起来。”

竞选最后一周最大的悬念在于，特朗普不懈的竞选活动是否已经唤醒了共和党选民，让他们在最后时刻团结起来支持他，以期缩小与对手的热情差距。鉴于特朗普在爱荷华州的长期胜绩，以及他在竞选冲刺阶段决定在该州两端举行两场竞选集会，爱荷华州的选情值得关注。

但距离选举日仅剩一周多一点的时间，总统的做法却是加倍推行那些导致许多选民对他第二个任期感到不满的政策。

特朗普周日将前往密歇根州，并在位于美加边境的休伦港举行集会。此次集会将凸显他与美国北部邻国之间的关税战，尽管共和党参议员候选人、前众议员迈克·罗杰斯曾试图在关税问题上与特朗普决裂。

“在密歇根州，我们知道加拿大不是我们的敌人。我们需要立即结束这场关税战，”罗杰斯在他竞选团队本月推出的一则电视广告中说道。

共和党最大的希望或许在于，要利用文化斗争来赢得近年来帮助他们赢得白人、农村和工人阶级选民的支持。在密歇根州，特朗普和罗杰斯都试图将民主党候选人埃尔-赛义德贴上支持极端伊斯兰主义利益的标签。

但民主党人正在反击。近日，埃尔-赛义德开始播放一则广告，其中包含共和党人和保守派媒体人士（包括福克斯新闻主持人）对他及其竞选活动表示赞赏或支持的视频片段。

在这些片段播放之前，他列举了一些问题，表示他与“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）运动中的一些人有共同立场，例如公布杰弗里·爱泼斯坦的文件和打击华盛顿的腐败。

俄亥俄州对共和党来说又是另一个棘手的问题。该党州长候选人维韦克·拉马斯瓦米（Vivek Ramaswamy）因播放一则颇具争议的竞选广告而遭到现任州长、连任两届的共和党人迈克·德瓦恩（Mike DeWine）的强烈批评。这则广告中出现了德瓦恩的母亲艾米·阿克顿（Amy Acton）的画面。

凯文·拉马克/路透社

拉马斯瓦米和总统都坚持己见，为这则广告辩护——这样做反而让这场竞选变成了对选民是否会接受非特朗普候选人的特朗普式策略的考验。

而最近几天接受 CNN 采访的俄亥俄州选民（包括支持拉马斯瓦米的共和党人）表示，该州突然变得具有竞争力的原因在于生活成本，而这个问题却逐渐淡出了人们的视野。

“我们都得加油。我现在就得开车去加油，这很困难，”来自洛夫兰的55岁母亲谢里·沃赫尔说道。她育有五个孩子，周三在辛辛那提参加了拉马斯瓦米的一次集会并担任志愿者。她说，她每周都会帮大女儿买菜，亲眼目睹了通货膨胀带来的经济压力。

“我认为这不是个容易解决的问题。我认为这需要时间，”她说。“我相信特朗普正在努力解决这个问题——只是需要更长的时间。”

CNN的菲尔·马廷利对本报道亦有贡献。