Presidential race in Bulgaria heads to runoff due to record low turnout

Daniel Yovkov/Hans Lucas/AFP/Getty Images

The presidential election in Bulgaria on Sunday ended inconclusively, with the next head of state to be picked in a runoff, according to election officials.

A record low turnout, attributed by observers to a general mistrust in politicians resulting in voter apathy, will pit two contrasting political visions against each other in a highly polarized contest on Nov. 1.

In a surprisingly strong performance, the candidate of the pro-Western reformist opposition, Andrey Gyurov, will face the incumbent leftist president, Iliana Yotova, setting clear lines of division regarding the country’s future relationships with other nations.

Bulgarians voted against a backdrop of growing economic hardship and drone attacks on Black Sea shipping. The vote is the first major test for the Moscow-friendly Progressive Bulgaria party of Prime Minister Rumen Radev after its triumph in parliamentary elections in April.

Despite a record number of candidates, the race had been expected to be decided in a runoff between incumbent Yotova, backed by Radev’s party, and former caretaker Prime Minister Gyurov, who is backed by pro-Western opposition parties.

The campaign focused heavily on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the widening hostilities in the Black Sea, where recent drone attacks on commercial vessels off Bulgaria’s coast have heightened security concerns in the European Union and NATO member country.

The strikes have raised concerns over Russia’s intentions to escalate the conflict and prompted the government to ask Bulgaria’s partners for assistance to strengthen its maritime security.

Candidates also sought to address public anxiety over rising energy prices and inflation, as many families, particularly in rural areas, struggle to make ends meet.

The election had been expected to go to a runoff as none of the 27 candidates was expected to win outright. Turnout must be above 50% of 6.6 million registered voters, and the winner needs a majority of votes.

Yotova, a 62-year-old journalist and former member of the European Parliament, is the country’s incumbent president and a front-runner in the race.

She previously served as vice president under Radev, during his two terms as head of state. She took over the presidency in January 2026, when Radev stepped down to run for parliament, and is now seeking her own mandate.

She’s running as an independent but also has the official backing of Progressive Bulgaria and the Socialist Party, where her career began.

If she wins, Yotova will become Bulgaria’s first elected female president.

Analysts expect her to continue Radev’s policy to keep Bulgaria on its European path but at the same time call for improved relations with Russia and the lifting of sanctions. Both Yotova and Radev have called for a diplomatic solution to end the war in Ukraine.

Addressing supporters at a rally this week, Yotova said she “advocated for peace through negotiations, rather than force.”

Observers say that Yotova’s victory would keep the presidency in the hands of the ruling majority, and such concentration of power could prevent institutions maintaining effective checks and balances on policy decisions.

Yotova’s main challenger is economist Andrei Gyurov, a former deputy governor of the central bank and caretaker prime minister who led the country in the early months of 2026. He is supported by the pro-Western reformist opposition.

Gyurov, who has often expressed firm support for Ukraine, signed a security cooperation agreement with Kyiv during his premiership.

“I want Bulgaria to have a voice of its own in Europe. A reliable NATO ally that defends its interests through preparedness, strong diplomacy and a clear position,” he told supporters this week.

Latest opinion polls give Yotova an edge in the first round of the race by giving her between 40 percent and 45 percent, versus Gyurov’s 25-30 %, with a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

But some observers believe that Gyurov could have a better chance in a runoff, where results can be influenced by voters who supported candidates eliminated in the first round.

Presidents in Bulgaria are elected directly for a five-year term and can serve no more than two terms. While the post is primarily ceremonial, the direct election gives the president greater political authority. The president leads the armed forces and can veto legislation, signs international treaties and appoints ambassadors.

Daniel Yovkov/Hans Lucas/法新社/盖蒂图片社

据选举官员称，保加利亚周日举行的总统选举结果不明，下一任国家元首将通过第二轮投票选出。

观察人士认为，创纪录的低投票率是由于民众普遍对政客缺乏信任，导致选民冷漠，这将使两种截然不同的政治理念在11月1日的一场高度两极分化的选举中正面交锋。

出人意料的是，亲西方改革派反对派候选人安德烈·久罗夫表现出色，将与现任左翼总统伊利亚娜·约托娃展开角逐，这将在国家未来与其他国家的关系上划出一条清晰的分界线。

保加利亚民众在经济日益困难和黑海航运遭受无人机袭击的背景下进行了投票。此次投票是亲莫斯科的进步保加利亚党（总理鲁门·拉德夫领导）在4月份议会选举获胜后面临的首次重大考验。

尽管候选人数创下纪录，但人们普遍认为，这场选举将在第二轮投票中决出胜负，候选人分别是现任总理约托娃（由拉德夫的政党支持）和前看守总理久罗夫（由亲西方的反对党支持）。

此次宣传活动重点关注俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以及黑海地区不断扩大的敌对行动。最近，无人机袭击保加利亚海岸附近的商船，加剧了欧盟和北约成员国的安全担忧。

这些袭击引发了人们对俄罗斯意图升级冲突的担忧，并促使保加利亚政府请求其伙伴国协助加强其海上安全。

候选人还试图解决公众对能源价格上涨和通货膨胀的焦虑情绪，因为许多家庭，特别是农村地区的家庭，都在努力维持生计。

由于27名候选人中无人有望直接胜出，因此预计此次选举将进入第二轮投票。投票率必须超过660万登记选民的50%，且获胜者需要获得多数选票。

现年 62 岁的约托娃是一名记者，也是欧洲议会的前议员，她是该国的现任总统，也是此次竞选的领跑者。

她曾在拉德夫担任国家元首的两届任期内担任副总统。2026年1月，拉德夫辞职竞选议员，她接任总统一职，目前正在寻求连任。

她以独立候选人的身份参选，但也得到了进步保加利亚党和社会党的官方支持，而她的政治生涯正是从社会党开始的。

如果她胜选，约托娃将成为保加利亚首位民选女总统。

分析人士预计，约托娃将延续拉德夫的政策，确保保加利亚继续走欧洲一体化道路，但同时也会呼吁改善与俄罗斯的关系并解除制裁。约托娃和拉德夫都呼吁通过外交途径结束乌克兰战争。

本周，约托娃在一次集会上向支持者发表讲话时表示，她“主张通过谈判而不是武力来实现和平”。

观察人士表示，约托娃的胜利将使总统职位继续掌握在执政多数派手中，这种权力集中可能会阻止各机构对政策决定进行有效的制衡。

约托娃的主要挑战者是经济学家安德烈·久罗夫，他曾任中央银行副行长和看守总理，在2026年初领导该国。他得到了亲西方改革派反对派的支持。

久罗夫曾多次表达对乌克兰的坚定支持，并在担任总理期间与基辅签署了安全合作协议。

“我希望保加利亚在欧洲拥有自己的声音。一个可靠的北约盟友，通过充分的准备、强有力的外交手段和明确的立场来捍卫自身利益，”他本周对支持者们说道。

最新民意调查显示，约托娃在第一轮竞选中领先，支持率在 40% 到 45% 之间，而久罗夫的支持率为 25% 到 30%，误差幅度为 3 个百分点。

但一些观察人士认为，如果进行第二轮投票，久罗夫的胜算可能会更大，因为第二轮投票的结果可能会受到第一轮被淘汰的候选人的支持者的影响。

保加利亚总统由民众直接选举产生，任期五年，最多可连任两届。虽然总统职位主要为礼仪性职位，但直接选举赋予了总统更大的政治权力。总统统领军队，可以否决立法、签署国际条约并任命大使。