US has plans for major Iran strikes if Trump chooses

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US forces in the Middle East are prepared to launch new, potentially major, military operations against Iran “within 96 hours of receiving” an order from President Donald Trump, according to two US officials.

Sufficient forces are now deployed in the region to carry out the potential attacks, the sources said. The scope of new US military operations would likely go beyond efforts to simply “mow the lawn” or maintain the status quo by striking radars, launchers and other Iranian assets that can be quickly reconstituted — as has been the case since Trump halted full combat operations earlier this year, the sources added.

“It will be a big effort,” one of the officials told CNN. That view has been echoed by other current and former US officials familiar with internal military planning discussions — some of whom say it is a question of when, not if, Trump will issue a go-order. They believe it could come any time before the end of the year, though most likely after the US midterm elections.

Iranian forces are now more familiar with US tactics, and it would therefore be harder for the American military to effectively destroy all potential intended targets. However, leaders in US Central Command and the Pentagon have been developing a wide-ranging target list, which includes Iranian energy infrastructure, military sites and nuclear facilities.

Officials say that Trump has not made up his mind on what he will do after the midterms but that he appears to be leaning toward ordering major action. But officials also caution that Trump has appeared in the past to lean toward certain actions only to back off at the last moment.

The White House declined to comment.

A senior Pentagon official told CNN in a statement, “The Department is a planning organization, and its job is to develop and execute military options ordered by the President.”

Recent US intelligence assessments indicate Iran and Houthi rebels are taking the possibility of renewed attacks by the US and potentially Israel very seriously, according to two additional sources familiar with the matter.

If the US and Israel launch new military operations against Iran, Tehran and the Houthis would likely retaliate immediately by targeting American personnel and facilities around the region — and potentially beyond, the sources familiar with those recent US intelligence assessments said.

An unclassified October 23 memo from Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton to Secretary of State Marco Rubio says US intelligence has found that “Iran has substantially increased efforts to target US personnel” and plotting efforts “have reached advanced stages in both the Middle East and certain other countries,” CNN previously reported .

US intelligence officials believe Iran and the Houthis are unlikely to carry out preemptive escalatory attacks against American personnel or Israel at this point but would not hesitate to respond if Iran is targeted first by US or Israeli forces, one of the sources familiar with the latest American intelligence assessments noted.

Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto/AP/File

But the regional threat posed by Iran and the Houthis is one reason why the US is expected to continue quietly pulling personnel from its embassies across the Middle East in the coming days, the source said.

While the US Embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, is the only American diplomatic facility in the region under ordered departure , one of the sources told CNN that others are expected to receive similar directives and those that do not will be scaled down under a personnel cap.

Additionally, nonessential US military personnel who were expected to deploy to the Middle East as part of the next troop rotation have been told they are no longer being sent, according to a US official, underscoring the possibility of looming regional escalation.

Adm. Brad Cooper, the CENTCOM commander, visited the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday as the US military maintains its blockade on Iranian ports and assists shipping traffic through the critical waterway.

Cooper “observed the current operational environment” while flying over the strait in a helicopter, CENTCOM said, adding that he met with service members who cleared the waterway of Iranian mines.

“We continue to stand shoulder to shoulder with our Gulf partners and the shipping industry,” Cooper said in a news release. “This visit underscores our strong commitment to continued freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.”

Despite the increase in tankers transiting the strait, oil prices remain high, partly due to the threat of possible Iranian attacks. One US official acknowledged the status quo around the strait is “untenable” for the long term, and barring a last-minute diplomatic breakthrough, is one reason Trump may turn to military action — despite questions about whether the White House has a broader strategy for ending the conflict.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been pushing to carry out new attacks against Iran, but US officials have requested he delay until the Trump administration is ready to conduct joint operations, according to two US officials and an Israeli security source.

“Netanyahu really wanted and tried to convince Trump for a joint attack in Iran before the elections, and Trump did not give a green light,” the Israeli security source told CNN.

One reason Trump declined is because Israel Defense Forces chief of staff Eyal Zamir told US Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, that it would harm the elections in Israel and lead to their postponement, the Israeli security source added.

Jack Guez/AFP/Getty Images

Israel was preparing for the possibility of launching additional attacks against Iran in the last week or so and had been lobbying US officials to support and complement those new strikes, a third source briefed on the matter told CNN. But senior US officials — including Trump — told Israel to hold off, instead signaling the two countries would launch joint operations soon.

Israel appears to have delayed plans in the immediate term for additional strikes but is building up for potential joint operations with the US — likely after the American midterm elections, all of the sources said.

Israel seemed to agree to delaying new strikes on Iran in part because it needs US support for missile defense, the source briefed on the matter added. Iran and the Houthis would likely retaliate against an attack and Israel’s defensive munitions have been strained during the war.

Recent US intelligence assessments indicate that Netanyahu and his allies still lack a clear strategic objective beyond demonstrating some sort of “progress” and continuing to degrade the Iranian regime, one of the sources familiar with the reports added.

Netanyahu said this week in a speech at an IDF graduation ceremony that his directive to the IDF, the Mossad and other security branches is to topple the regime in Iran.

“The plans are ready, waiting for Trump’s approval, could be after the midterms,” the same source told CNN.

CNN’s Kevin Liptak contributed to this report.

吉姆·沃森/法新社/盖蒂图片社

据两名美国官员透露，驻中东美军已做好准备，一旦接到唐纳德·特朗普总统的命令，将在96小时内对伊朗发动新的、可能规模巨大的军事行动。

消息人士称，目前该地区已部署了足够的兵力，足以发动潜在的袭击。消息人士还补充说，美国新的军事行动范围可能不再局限于“清理草坪”或维持现状，例如打击雷达、发射器和其他可以迅速重建的伊朗资产——自特朗普今年早些时候停止全面作战行动以来，伊朗一直都是这样做的。

一位官员告诉CNN：“这将是一项艰巨的任务。”其他熟悉美国内部军事计划讨论的现任和前任官员也表达了类似的观点——其中一些人表示，特朗普何时下达行动命令只是时间问题，而不是是否下达的问题。他们认为，行动可能在年底前的任何时间进行，但最有可能在美国中期选举之后。

伊朗军队如今对美军战术更加熟悉，因此美军更难有效摧毁所有潜在目标。然而，美国中央司令部和五角大楼的领导人一直在制定一份涵盖范围广泛的目标清单，其中包括伊朗的能源基础设施、军事设施和核设施。

官员们表示，特朗普尚未决定中期选举后的行动计划，但他似乎倾向于采取重大行动。不过，官员们也提醒说，特朗普过去也曾有过类似的倾向，即倾向于采取某些行动，但最终却在最后一刻反悔。

白宫拒绝置评。

一位五角大楼高级官员在给 CNN 的一份声明中表示：“国防部是一个计划机构，其职责是制定和执行总统下令的军事选项。”

另有两名知情人士透露，美国最近的情报评估表明，伊朗和胡塞武装非常重视美国乃至以色列可能再次发动袭击的可能性。

据熟悉美国近期情报评估的消息人士称，如果美国和以色列对伊朗发动新的军事行动，德黑兰和胡塞武装很可能会立即进行报复，以袭击该地区乃至更远地区的美国人员和设施。

据 CNN 此前报道，一份 10 月 23 日由国家情报总监杰伊·克莱顿 (Jay Clayton) 写给国务卿马可·卢比奥 (Marco Rubio) 的非机密备忘录称，美国情报部门发现“伊朗已大幅加强了针对美国人员的袭击”，并且策划行动“在中东和其他一些国家都已进入高级阶段”。

一位熟悉美国最新情报评估的消息人士指出，美国情报官员认为，伊朗和胡塞武装目前不太可能对美国人员或以色列发动先发制人的升级袭击，但如果伊朗首先成为美国或以色列军队的目标，他们将毫不犹豫地予以回应。

莫尔泰扎·尼库巴兹尔/NurPhoto/美联社/文件

消息人士称，伊朗和胡塞武装构成的地区威胁是美国预计将在未来几天继续悄悄从其在中东各地的使馆撤离人员的原因之一。

虽然美国驻沙特阿拉伯利雅得大使馆是该地区唯一一个被勒令撤离的美国外交机构，但一位消息人士告诉 CNN，预计其他机构也将收到类似的指令，而那些没有收到指令的机构将根据人员上限缩减规模。

此外，据一位美国官员透露，原计划作为下一轮部队轮换的一部分部署到中东的非必要美国军事人员已被告知不再被派往该地区，这凸显了地区局势可能即将升级。

美国中央司令部司令布拉德·库珀海军上将周日访问了霍尔木兹海峡，美军继续封锁伊朗港口，并协助通过这条重要水道的航运。

中央司令部表示，库珀乘坐直升机飞越海峡时“观察了当前的作战环境”，并补充说，他还与负责清除水道中伊朗水雷的军人进行了会面。

库珀在一份新闻稿中表示：“我们将继续与海湾地区的合作伙伴和航运业并肩站在一起。此次访问凸显了我们对维护霍尔木兹海峡航行自由的坚定承诺。”

尽管途经霍尔木兹海峡的油轮数量有所增加，但油价依然居高不下，部分原因是伊朗可能发动袭击的威胁。一位美国官员承认，霍尔木兹海峡目前的状况从长远来看“难以维持”，除非在最后一刻取得外交突破，否则这可能是特朗普可能诉诸军事行动的原因之一——尽管人们质疑白宫是否制定了更广泛的战略来结束这场冲突。

据两名美国官员和一名以色列安全消息人士透露，以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡一直力主对伊朗发动新的袭击，但美国官员要求他推迟行动，直到特朗普政府准备好进行联合行动。

一位以色列安全部门消息人士告诉 CNN：“内塔尼亚胡非常希望并试图说服特朗普在大选前对伊朗发动联合攻击，但特朗普没有开绿灯。”

以色列安全部门消息人士补充说，特朗普拒绝的原因之一是，以色列国防军总参谋长埃亚尔·扎米尔告诉美军参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军，这样做会损害以色列的选举，并导致选举推迟。

Jack Guez/AFP/Getty Images

据CNN报道，一位知情人士透露，以色列在过去一周左右的时间里一直在为可能对伊朗发动更多袭击做准备，并游说美国官员支持和配合这些新的打击行动。但包括特朗普在内的美国高级官员却要求以色列暂缓行动，并暗示两国很快将展开联合军事行动。

消息人士称，以色列似乎已经推迟了近期内进行更多打击行动的计划，但正在为与美国的潜在联合行动做准备——很可能是在美国中期选举之后。

知情人士透露，以色列似乎同意推迟对伊朗的新一轮打击，部分原因是它需要美国在导弹防御方面的支持。伊朗和胡塞武装很可能会对袭击进行报复，而且以色列的防御性弹药在战争期间已经捉襟见肘。

一位熟悉相关报道的消息人士补充说，最近的美国情报评估表明，内塔尼亚胡及其盟友除了展现某种“进展”和继续削弱伊朗政权之外，仍然缺乏明确的战略目标。

内塔尼亚胡本周在以色列国防军毕业典礼上的讲话中表示，他指示以色列国防军、摩萨德和其他安全部门推翻伊朗政权。

“计划已经准备就绪，只等特朗普批准，可能要等到中期选举之后，”同一消息人士告诉 CNN。

CNN的凯文·利普塔克对本报道亦有贡献。