How Lula beat Bolsonaro, broke records and halted the right-wing wave aligning Latin America with Trump in 20 days

Sigue nuestra cobertura en vivo en español de las elecciones en Brasil

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva made history on Sunday, setting a record for Brazil and the rest of Latin America by becoming the first president to win a fourth term – and he did so days before turning 81, an age when many other leaders decide to leave politics behind.

The Brazilian president’s remarkable comeback against his right-wing rival, Flávio Bolsonaro, also set another record. Since Brazil’s return to democracy in 1985, no president ha s managed to overturn a first-round defeat. The Workers’ Party candidate added more than 10 million votes in the three weeks between the two rounds of voting, while his rival gained just 3.6 million.

The margin was decisive enough for Lula to secure a larger lead than he did in 2022, when he defeated Jair Bolsonaro, Flávio’s father and the incumbent president at the time. The comeback also allows Lula to remain the leading figure of the regional left as the right advances in other countries across Latin America, many of whose governments are now aligned with Donald Trump’s White House.

As his father did four years ago, Flávio Bolsonaro refused to recognize the result and announced that he would seek to have the election annulled through the courts. The senator challenged Supreme Federal Court Justice Cristiano Zanin’s decision to extend voting by two hours, arguing that the uneven application of the measure had undermined equal voting conditions. “It is impossible to recognize the election results given the circumstances in which these events unfolded,” he said.

Bolsonaro’s statement did not dampen celebrations over Lula’s historic achievement. But the right’s political strength could hinder the smooth functioning of his new administration. The victory confirms Lula’s political staying power. Yet Bolsonaro’s defeat does not weaken the right’s grip on Congress and state governments. That is the paradox of Lula’s next term: a historic electoral triumph and limited room to govern.

Geography helps explain how Lula overturned his first-round deficit. In Minas Gerais, the state with Brazil’s second-largest electorate, he went from losing by nearly 590,000 votes to winning by about 99,000 — a swing of roughly 690,000 votes in the margin between the two candidates. The state, which has backed the winner of every direct presidential election since 1989, once again voted in line with the national result. Although Flávio retained his lead in the states of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, Lula won their capitals, Brazil’s two largest cities, and reversed the first-round result in the city of Rio.

His gains were reinforced by victories in all nine northeastern states and higher voter turnout. Abstention fell from 21.08% in the first round to approximately 19.2% in the runoff, bringing nearly three million more Brazilians to the polls.

Jean Carniel/Reuters

That additional participation cannot be attributed entirely to Lula, but it underscores the importance of mobilizing those who had not voted: in the first round, the gap between the candidates was just over 2.2 million votes.

The battle was also fought on Brazilians’ phones. After finishing second in the first round, Lula stepped up his digital mobilization efforts to expand his reach and turn support into votes. The challenge was not simply to persuade undecided voters, but to get those who already preferred him to show up at the polls.

The push was accompanied by last-minute measures and proposals aimed at voters’ concrete concerns. Lula signed into law a measure raising the revenue threshold for individual microentrepreneurs, proposed new initiatives to renegotiate consumer debt and advocated ending online betting, whose expansion has contributed to household indebtedness.

On security, he even embraced a traditional right-wing position: he backed lowering the age of criminal responsibility for particularly serious offenses. The move was intended to respond to demands for a tougher approach to crime, another major issue in the election.

The victory allows Lula to remain in power, but it also obliges him to meet the expectations he raised to secure it.

Lula’s first challenge after celebrating his victory will be legislative. Right-wing parties will hold 303 of the 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, compared with 124 for the left and 86 for the center.

In the Senate, the right will control nearly two-thirds of the seats. That does not make every one of those lawmakers an automatic opponent, but it means Lula will have to build alliances beyond his own base both to advance his proposals and to defend his government’s priorities.

The map of state governments also shows the strength the conservative camp retains. Across the two rounds of voting, Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL) won five governorships, while the Republicans and the Progressive Party (PP) secured four each. The Workers’ Party (PT) won four. The Social Democratic Party (PSD), which brings together politicians with different political alliances, secured another five. Negotiations with those governors will be another challenge for Lula, who will need cooperation at the state level to implement his policies.

“Once we win the election, we no longer have opponents. I have to govern for 215 million people,” Lula said in his victory speech. He also addressed the challenge of negotiating with a more conservative legislature: “I didn’t choose Congress. The people did. And that is the Congress with which I will vote, work and get things done.”

Alexandre Meneghini/Reuters

The most immediate challenge will be to turn economic gains into relief that Brazilians can feel in their daily lives. Perceptions of the economy were among the main sources of erosion in Lula’s support during the campaign. Lower inflation does not bring prices back to their previous levels, and improvements in employment do not necessarily offset the burden of debt and household expenses. Dissatisfaction with the cost of living will remain after the election.

Addressing that discontent will be harder because of fiscal constraints. Debt, the deficit and high interest rates limit the government’s ability to increase spending and foreshadow disputes over how to fund campaign promises without jeopardizing social programs. With an unfriendly Congress, decisions about who pays and where cuts are made will also test Lula’s ability to negotiate.

Security will be another source of pressure. Lula will have to respond to demands for tougher measures against crime, as the right has made a hard-line approach one of its main political platforms. In the final stretch of the campaign, he signaled a tougher stance by expressing his willingness to lower the age of criminal responsibility to 16 for serious offenses, a measure championed by the right and backed by broad public support. It remains to be seen whether he will turn that campaign signal into a concrete proposal. He will also face the challenge of preparing a successor for a left whose ability to win presidential elections remains closely tied to his own political stature.

The challenges extend beyond Brazil’s borders. The progressive leader’s comeback prevented Trump from securing the crown jewel of a wave of victories by right-wing candidates aligned with the White House. As head of Latin America’s largest economy, with China as its top trading partner, Lula’s government has used Brazil’s economic weight to push back against Washington’s trade and political demands — a degree of autonomy few of its neighbors can attempt.

A Bolsonaro victory, by contrast, would have marked a major shift in Washington’s efforts to secure its dominance in the hemisphere and curb Beijing’s reach.

Yet Lula faces a highly challenging regional landscape and risks being largely isolated. “Lula faces a very different political environment from the one that existed when he first took office, during the pink tide. Back then, he had several regional allies and could play both sides to Brazil’s advantage,” Michael Paarlberg, an associate professor of political science at Virginia Commonwealth University and a researcher at the Center for International Policy (CIP), a Washington-based think tank, told CNN.

The region’s political landscape is also different from the one Lula faced when he began his third term in 2023, when allies such as Alberto Fernández in Argentina, Gabriel Boric in Chile and Gustavo Petro in Colombia were in power.

“Lula is unlikely to spend his political capital pushing regional integration initiatives such as Unasur (Union of South American Nations), as he did during his first terms. Lacking ideological allies, he will exercise that leadership through Brazil’s economic weight — its investments, trade and Mercosur,” Paarlberg added, referring to the South American trading bloc.

As he prepares for his fourth term, Lula will have to decide how to approach relations with the United States. “Brazil does not belong in anyone’s backyard,” Lula said at the United Nations in September, in a message directed at Washington. Yet he has also acted cautiously. When the United States imposed a new round of tariffs on Brazilian goods in the middle of the year, he left open the possibility of retaliatory measures.

“Lula has shown an ability to adapt to Trump. He has balanced occasional harsh criticism with conciliatory gestures,” the analyst said. “For Lula, sovereignty does not necessarily mean confrontation; in fact, he believes confrontation does not necessarily strengthen sovereignty. (…) Lula is not ideologically anti-American, nor does he have difficulty working with right-wing governments,” he added.

Al North America/Getty Images

Paarlberg also said the reelected president would closely follow the US midterm elections, in which “his position could improve” if Trump’s Republican Party loses control of one or both chambers of Congress, potentially bringing greater scrutiny of the president’s agenda.

In addition to halting the run of victories by the right and candidates backed by Trump, Lula interrupted another trend: a succession of defeats for incumbent governments, a phenomenon common over the past decade. That raises a broader question about whether the rightward shift is a lasting wave or part of a political pendulum.

“Lula’s victory shows that the far right, particularly Bolsonaro’s movement, has a ceiling of support, because many voters consider it too radical,” Paarlberg said. He added that the result also suggests that backing from the White House and its battery of economic measures “are not decisive factors” in an election.

In a Latin America increasingly defined by emerging leaders, Lula remains a statesman with international reach and one of the region’s key figures on the global stage. After another political feat, the record-breaking president has two months before beginning his fourth term to decide what course he will seek to chart for South America’s largest country over the next four years.

Sigue nuestra cobertura en vivo en español de las elecciones en 巴西

路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦周日创造了历史，成为巴西乃至整个拉丁美洲历史上第一位赢得第四个总统任期的总统——而且几天后他即将年满 81 岁，许多其他领导人在这个年龄都会选择退出政坛。

巴西总统逆转击败右翼对手弗拉维奥·博索纳罗的惊人胜利也创造了另一项纪录。自巴西1985年恢复民主以来，没有一位总统能够扭转首轮败局。劳工党候选人在两轮投票之间的三周内增加了超过1000万张选票，而他的对手仅增加了360万张。

卢拉此次的胜选优势足以让他比2022年击败时任总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗（弗拉维奥的父亲）时取得更大的领先优势。此次胜利也使卢拉得以继续保持其在拉丁美洲左翼阵营的领军地位，因为右翼势力正在拉丁美洲其他国家崛起，而这些国家的政府如今大多与唐纳德·特朗普的白宫结盟。

如同他父亲四年前所做的那样，弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗拒绝承认选举结果，并宣布将通过法律途径寻求宣布选举无效。这位参议员对联邦最高法院法官克里斯蒂亚诺·扎宁将投票时间延长两小时的决定提出质疑，认为该措施执行不公破坏了投票环境的平等性。他说：“鉴于事件发生的种种情况，我们不可能承认选举结果。”

博索纳罗的声明并未浇灭人们对卢拉历史性胜利的庆祝热情。但右翼的政治实力可能会阻碍卢拉新政府的顺利运作。此次胜利巩固了卢拉的政治影响力。然而，博索纳罗的败选并未削弱右翼对国会和州政府的控制。这正是卢拉下一任期的悖论：历史性的选举胜利，以及有限的执政空间。

地理因素有助于解释卢拉如何扭转首轮劣势。在巴西选民人数第二多的米纳斯吉拉斯州，他从落后近59万张选票反超至领先约9.9万张选票——两位候选人之间的票数差距扭转了约69万张。自1989年以来，该州在每次总统直选中都支持获胜者，此次也再次与全国结果保持一致。尽管弗拉维奥在圣保罗州和里约热内卢州保持领先，但卢拉赢得了这两个州的首府——巴西最大的两个城市，并在里约热内卢市扭转了首轮选举的结果。

他在东北部九个州全部获胜，加上更高的投票率，巩固了其胜选优势。弃权率从第一轮的21.08%下降到第二轮的约19.2%，使得近300万巴西选民参与了投票。

Jean Carniel/路透社

额外的参与不能完全归功于卢拉，但这凸显了动员那些尚未投票的人的重要性：在第一轮投票中，候选人之间的差距超过 220 万张选票。

这场选战也发生在巴西民众的手机上。在第一轮投票中位列第二后，卢拉加大了数字动员力度，以扩大影响力，并将支持转化为选票。他面临的挑战不仅在于说服尚未决定投票意向的选民，更在于促使那些已经支持他的选民积极参与投票。

此次施压伴随着一系列旨在回应选民具体关切的最后时刻措施和提案。卢拉签署了一项提高个体微型企业家收入门槛的法案，提出了重新协商消费者债务的新举措，并倡导取缔网络赌博——网络赌博的扩张加剧了家庭债务问题。

在安全问题上，他甚至采取了传统的右翼立场：他支持降低对特别严重罪行的刑事责任年龄。此举旨在回应民众要求对犯罪采取更强硬措施的呼声，这也是此次选举的另一个重要议题。

这场胜利让卢拉得以继续掌权，但也迫使他必须满足自己为了巩固权力而提出的期望。

卢拉庆祝胜利后的首要挑战将是立法领域。右翼政党将在众议院513个席位中占据303席，而左翼政党占124席，中间派占86席。

在参议院，右翼将控制近三分之二的席位。这并不意味着所有这些议员都必然是卢拉的反对者，但这意味着卢拉必须在自身支持者之外建立联盟，才能推进他的提案并捍卫政府的优先事项。

各州政府的分布图也显示了保守派阵营的实力。在两轮投票中，博索纳罗的自由党（PL）赢得了五个州长席位，共和党和进步党（PP）各获得四个。劳工党（PT）赢得了四个。由不同政治联盟的政治家组成的社会民主党（PSD）又赢得了五个。与这些州长的谈判将是卢拉面临的又一挑战，他需要各州的合作才能推行自己的政策。

“一旦我们赢得选举，我们就没有对手了。我必须为2.15亿人民服务，”卢拉在胜选演讲中说道。他还谈到了与更为保守的立法机构谈判的挑战：“我没有选择国会，是人民选择了国会。我将与这个国会一起投票、工作，并把事情做好。”

亚历山大·梅内吉尼/路透社

最紧迫的挑战在于如何将经济增长转化为巴西民众日常生活中切实感受到的改善。在竞选期间，民众对经济的看法是导致卢拉支持率下滑的主要原因之一。通货膨胀率下降并不能使物价恢复到之前的水平，就业状况的改善也未必能抵消债务和家庭开支的负担。选举结束后，民众对生活成本的不满情绪仍将持续存在。

由于财政限制，解决民众不满情绪将更加困难。债务、赤字和高利率限制了政府增加支出的能力，并预示着如何在不损害社会福利项目的前提下兑现竞选承诺将引发争议。面对不友好的国会，关于谁来买单以及削减哪些开支的决定也将考验卢拉的谈判能力。

安全问题将是另一大压力来源。卢拉将不得不回应各方要求采取更强硬措施打击犯罪的呼声，因为右翼已将强硬路线作为其主要政治纲领之一。在竞选的最后阶段，他曾表示愿意将严重犯罪的刑事责任年龄降至16岁，这一举措得到了右翼的大力支持，并获得了广泛的公众支持，这表明他采取了更为强硬的立场。他是否会将这一竞选信号转化为具体的提案，还有待观察。此外，他还将面临为左翼培养接班人的挑战，因为左翼能否赢得总统选举仍然与他自身的政治地位密切相关。

挑战远不止于巴西国界。这位进步派领导人的复出阻止了特朗普赢得与白宫结盟的右翼候选人一系列胜利中的“皇冠上的明珠”。作为拉丁美洲最大经济体的领导人，卢拉政府利用巴西的经济实力抵制华盛顿的贸易和政治要求——这种程度的自主性鲜有邻国能够企及。

相比之下，博索纳罗的胜利将标志着华盛顿在巩固其在西半球的主导地位和遏制北京影响力方面做出重大转变。

然而，卢拉面临着极其严峻的地区形势，并有可能被孤立。“卢拉目前面临的政治环境与他刚上任时——也就是‘粉红浪潮’时期——截然不同。当时，他拥有几个地区盟友，可以左右逢源，为巴西谋取利益。”弗吉尼亚联邦大学政治学副教授、华盛顿智库国际政策中心（CIP）研究员迈克尔·帕尔伯格告诉CNN。

该地区的政治格局也与卢拉在 2023 年开始第三个任期时所面临的格局不同，当时他的盟友，如阿根廷的阿尔贝托·费尔南德斯、智利的加布里埃尔·博里奇和哥伦比亚的古斯塔沃·佩特罗，都在执政。

帕尔伯格补充道：“卢拉不太可能像他第一任期那样，动用政治资本推动区域一体化倡议，例如南美洲国家联盟（UNASU）。由于缺乏意识形态盟友，他将通过巴西的经济实力——其投资、贸易和南方共同市场（Mercosur）——来发挥领导作用。”他这里指的是南美贸易集团。

在即将开启第四个总统任期之际，卢拉必须决定如何处理与美国的关系。“巴西不应该成为任何人的后院，”卢拉9月在联合国向华盛顿发出警告。然而，他的行动也一直十分谨慎。今年年中，美国对巴西商品加征新一轮关税时，他并未排除采取报复措施的可能性。

分析人士表示：“卢拉展现出了适应特朗普的能力。他既会偶尔严厉批评，也会做出和解姿态。对卢拉而言，主权并不一定意味着对抗；事实上，他认为对抗未必能加强主权。(…)卢拉在意识形态上并不反美，与右翼政府合作也并不困难。”

北美/Getty Images

帕尔伯格还表示，连任总统将密切关注美国中期选举，如果特朗普的共和党失去对国会两院之一或两院的控制权，“他的处境可能会有所改善”，这可能会使总统的议程受到更大的审查。

除了终结右翼势力和特朗普支持候选人的连胜势头外，卢拉还打破了另一个趋势：过去十年来执政党接连败选的现象。这引发了一个更广泛的问题：这种右倾趋势究竟是一股持久的浪潮，还是政治钟摆效应的一部分？

帕尔伯格表示：“卢拉的胜利表明，极右翼，尤其是博索纳罗的运动，其支持率存在上限，因为许多选民认为它过于激进。”他还补充说，这一结果也表明，白宫的支持及其一系列经济措施“并非选举的决定性因素”。

在拉丁美洲新兴领导人日益增多的今天，卢拉依然是一位具有国际影响力的政治家，也是该地区在全球舞台上的关键人物之一。这位打破纪录的总统在又一次取得政治成就后，距离他第四个任期开始还有两个月的时间，来决定未来四年他将为南美洲最大的国家制定怎样的发展路线。