Indonesia's gas cuts to Singapore put spotlight on domestic energy needs, economic trade-offs

While the reduction is unlikely to significantly affect Singapore's electricity supply or prices, analysts say it raises broader questions about energy security for both Singapore and Indonesia.

Analysts say the move could signal a longer-term shift in how Indonesia balances its domestic energy requirements against export commitments. (Photo: iStock)

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SINGAPORE: Indonesia's move to reduce natural gas exports to Singapore has raised questions about its growing domestic energy needs and the economic trade-offs involved in keeping more gas at home, even as analysts expect the immediate impact on Singapore to be limited.

Indonesia began reducing natural gas exports to Singapore on Saturday (Oct 24), diverting 31 million standard cubic feet of gas a day from Natuna and Sumatra to meet domestic electricity needs.

Analysts told CNA that this could signal a longer-term shift in how Indonesia balances its domestic energy requirements against export commitments, with implications for Singapore's future gas supplies.

David Broadstock, lead energy economist at the Energy Studies Institute (ESI) at the National University of Singapore, said Indonesia's stated need to prioritise domestic energy supply reflects a challenge faced by countries around the world: whether to export their energy resources or retain them for domestic use.

"If this does constitute a pivot in Indonesia's stance towards energy trade, then there is a chance that the trend will continue and potentially deepen," he said.

Indonesia's upstream oil and gas regulator SKK Migas said the cuts were intended to safeguard domestic gas supplies for electricity generation .

Roger Fouquet, principal research fellow at ESI, said Indonesia's economic growth could be driving higher demand for electricity and the natural gas needed to generate it.

The Indonesian economy has been growing at about 5 per cent annually for several years, translating into broadly equivalent increases in electricity demand, he said.

The expansion of data centres could add to this demand, pushing future electricity needs much higher than anticipated when the gas supply contracts with Singapore were drawn up.

Mr Alvin Chew, a senior fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), said Jakarta may be reducing gas exports in a bid to support stronger growth in non-oil and gas sectors.

"Economically, Indonesia will stand to gain more if it exports its natural gas to Singapore at higher prices compared to reserving it for its domestic use," he said.

All the same, Indonesia's international reputation as a major gas supplier could take a hit if its exports were immediately reduced while contractual agreements remained in place, rather than through a clearly communicated future timeline, said Mr Chew.

Nevertheless, strong bilateral ties between Singapore and Indonesia could help pave the way for the original gas supplies to be reinstated, he added, though he also said political considerations could be behind Indonesia’s move.

CNA Games Guess Word Crack the word, one row at a time Buzzword Create words using the given letters Mini Sudoku Tiny puzzle, mighty brain teaser Mini Crossword Small grid, big challenge Word Search Spot as many words as you can Show More Show Less Mr Chew pointed to remarks by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia on Oct 22 in warning that Jakarta could review energy exports to countries that did not show it "mutual respect", as reported by CNBC Indonesia. Singapore's Minister for Energy, Trade and Industry (Energy and Industry) Tan See Leng on Sunday (Oct 25) said the cuts are unlikely to have much impact on electricity prices in the short term , as much of Singapore's gas is priced against global benchmarks. "(Indonesia) may have some domestic supply needs and bottlenecks, which we can understand," he said, reaffirming the strong relationship between the two countries. ESI's Dr Broadstock said that Singapore and Indonesia could use the opportunity to renew discussions on how to balance their respective energy security needs, while strengthening broader energy cooperation across ASEAN.

Mr Chew pointed to remarks by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia on Oct 22 in warning that Jakarta could review energy exports to countries that did not show it "mutual respect", as reported by CNBC Indonesia.

Singapore's Minister for Energy, Trade and Industry (Energy and Industry) Tan See Leng on Sunday (Oct 25) said the cuts are unlikely to have much impact on electricity prices in the short term , as much of Singapore's gas is priced against global benchmarks.

"(Indonesia) may have some domestic supply needs and bottlenecks, which we can understand," he said, reaffirming the strong relationship between the two countries.

ESI's Dr Broadstock said that Singapore and Indonesia could use the opportunity to renew discussions on how to balance their respective energy security needs, while strengthening broader energy cooperation across ASEAN.

LONGER-TERM ENERGY SECURITY

While Indonesia has good reason to prioritise its domestic energy requirements, redirecting more gas to such efforts would require investment in infrastructure, said Mr Prateek Pandey, head of APAC Oil & Gas Analysis at Rystad Energy.

Producers would also need commercially viable prices to sustain production, adding another consideration to Indonesia's efforts to retain more gas supplies at home.

On Monday, Mr Rayendra Sidik, vice-president of commercial at SKK Migas, was in Singapore to speak in a special session for Singapore International Energy Week.

He said Indonesia was facing challenges in balancing growing domestic demand for natural gas, particularly from the fertiliser sector among others.

Demand from various sectors was increasing simultaneously, Mr Rayendra added, making it difficult to plan for future gas requirements.

With Indonesia also seeing growing demand from hyperscalers which require firm, round-the-clock energy supply, meeting this need would require careful planning, he said.

When approached by the media after the session with questions on the export cuts, Mr Rayendra declined to comment, referring queries instead to the ministerial office in Indonesia.

Mr Rayendra Sidik, vice-president of commercial at SKK Migas, speaking during a panel at Singapore International Energy Week on Oct 26, 2026. (Photo: CNA/Alyssa Tan)

Rystad Energy's Mr Pandey said there were limits to how much more gas Indonesia could divert to domestic use over the next few years, with upcoming projects such as Mako expected to meet Batam's demand, while pipeline capacity and other infrastructure constraints would restrict further diversions.

Beyond a certain point, he added, cutting exports could force Indonesian producers to reduce production rather than simply redirecting gas to another buyer.

He noted that some changes to gas flows had already been planned as early as 2024, signalled by arrangements such as gas sales and swap agreements relating to gas fields such as Jambi Merang.

On the whole, the latest cuts should be "manageable" for Singapore, which has been preparing for potential disruptions by diversifying its gas supply, said Mr Pandey – barring any further changes such as deeper reductions or field production disruptions.

While the latest reduction is expected to be manageable, the bigger test for Singapore could come after 2028, when existing gas export contracts start expiring, he added.

Dr Broadstock noted that Singapore had already been reviewing and reconfiguring its gas imports following disruptions to global energy supply chains caused by the Middle East conflict.

It should be "relatively easy" to find alternative supplies in the international gas market, he added.

Dr Fouquet highlighted liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Australia and the United States as potential options.

However, RSIS' Dr Chew said that expanding LNG infrastructure and diversifying supply would not make Singapore invulnerable to energy risks.

Instead of depending on imported resources, developing domestic electricity generation capacity through solar or nuclear energy would give Singapore a greater degree of energy independence, he said.

Nuclear power, in particular, could provide a low-carbon source of electricity capable of meeting continuous demand, he added.

Singapore is also expanding its sources of low-carbon electricity imports as part of efforts to decarbonise its power sector.

The Energy Market Authority (EMA) on Monday (Oct 26) announced that it had granted conditional approval to Sembcorp Utilities to import 1.3 gigawatts of electricity into Singapore .

Sembcorp Utilities is working with MY Energy Consortium and Petrovietnam Technical Services Corporation to source and integrate low-carbon electricity, including offshore wind from Vietnam and solar power from Malaysia, with imports targeted to begin by 2035.

Singapore has also granted conditional approvals and licences to electricity import projects from Australia, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam.

However, Dr Broadstock cautioned that the implications of countries prioritising their domestic energy needs could extend beyond natural gas imports.

If such an approach becomes more widespread in the region, Singapore may need to carefully review its energy dependencies including low-carbon electricity imports, he said.

Prime Minister Lawrence Wong delivers an address at the 2026 PAP Party Awards and Conference on Oct 25, 2026. (Photo: CNA/Syamil Sapari)

LIMITED IMMEDIATE IMPACT

Despite these longer-term concerns, all four analysts told CNA the latest reduction was unlikely to significantly affect Singapore's energy security or electricity prices, echoing the government's earlier assessment.

The cut would not itself affect international gas prices, making its impact more manageable, said Dr Broadstock of ESI.

EMA on Saturday said that the cut in Indonesian natural gas exports amounts to less than 2 per cent of Singapore's daily demand, adding that the country had sufficient supplies and contingency plans in place to manage such disruptions.

Natural gas accounts for about 95 per cent of Singapore's electricity generation , with supplies coming through pipelines from Indonesia and Malaysia, as well as LNG shipments from international suppliers.

Speaking at the People's Action Party convention on Sunday (Oct 25), Prime Minister Lawrence Wong said Singapore expects all parties to honour their commercial gas supply agreements .

"Singapore's gas importer will take the necessary steps to protect its rights and interests under these contracts," he said.

Mr Wong added that Singapore had been preparing for such risks by investing in LNG terminals, allowing it to import gas from different countries without relying solely on pipelines.

Dr Broadstock said there could be some short-term price disruptions if additional LNG had to be purchased on the spot market to meet power generation needs. However, he added, the volume involved was "fairly modest", as would be any changes in costs.

Additional reporting by Koh Wan Ting.

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虽然此次减产不太可能对新加坡的电力供应或价格产生重大影响，但分析人士表示，这引发了关于新加坡和印度尼西亚能源安全的更广泛问题。

分析人士表示，此举可能预示着印尼在平衡国内能源需求与出口承诺方面将发生长期转变。（图片：iStock）

这段音频是由人工智能工具生成的。

新加坡：印尼减少对新加坡天然气出口的举措引发了人们对其日益增长的国内能源需求以及将更多天然气留在国内所涉及的经济权衡的疑问，尽管分析人士预计这对新加坡的直接影响有限。

印尼于周六（10 月 24 日）开始减少对新加坡的天然气出口，每天从纳土纳群岛和苏门答腊岛转移 3100 万标准立方英尺的天然气，以满足国内电力需求。

分析人士告诉亚洲新闻台，这可能预示着印尼在平衡国内能源需求与出口承诺方面将发生长期转变，这将对新加坡未来的天然气供应产生影响。

新加坡国立大学能源研究所 (ESI) 首席能源经济学家大卫·布罗德斯托克表示，印尼强调优先保障国内能源供应，这反映了世界各国面临的一个挑战：是出口能源资源还是将其留作国内使用。

“如果这确实代表印尼在能源贸易立场上的转变，那么这种趋势有可能继续下去，甚至可能加深，”他说。

印尼上游油气监管机构SKK Migas表示，减产旨在保障国内发电所需的天然气供应。

ESI首席研究员罗杰·福凯表示，印尼的经济增长可能会推动对电力和发电所需天然气的更高需求。

他表示，印尼经济多年来一直以每年约 5% 的速度增长，这转化为电力需求的大致同等增长。

数据中心的扩张可能会增加这种需求，使未来的电力需求远高于与新加坡签订天然气供应合同时所预期的水平。

拉惹勒南国际研究院 (RSIS) 高级研究员 Alvin Chew 先生表示，雅加达可能正在减少天然气出口，以支持非石油和天然气行业的强劲增长。

他说：“从经济角度来看，如果印尼将天然气以更高的价格出口到新加坡，而不是将其留给国内使用，印尼将从中获得更多收益。”

尽管如此，周先生表示，如果印尼在合同协议仍然有效的情况下立即减少天然气出口，而不是通过明确沟通的未来时间表，那么印尼作为主要天然气供应国的国际声誉可能会受到打击。

不过，他补充说，新加坡和印度尼西亚之间牢固的双边关系可能有助于恢复原有的天然气供应，但他同时表示，印尼此举背后可能存在政治考量。

CNA游戏猜词游戏：逐行破解单词；流行词游戏：用给定的字母组成单词；迷你数独：小巧的谜题，强大的脑力挑战；迷你填字游戏：小方格，大挑战；单词搜索：尽可能多地找出单词。显示更多 显示更少 据CNBC印尼频道报道，周先生援引印尼能源和矿产资源部长巴赫利·拉哈达利亚10月22日的讲话，警告称雅加达可能会重新评估对那些不给予其“相互尊重”的国家的能源出口。新加坡能源、贸易和工业部长陈世龙（能源和工业）周日（10月25日）表示，由于新加坡的大部分天然气价格都与全球基准挂钩，因此短期内减产不太可能对电价产生太大影响。他重申了两国之间的牢固关系，并表示：“（印尼）可能存在一些国内供应需求和瓶颈，我们对此表示理解。” ESI的布罗德斯托克博士表示，新加坡和印度尼西亚可以利用这个机会，重新讨论如何平衡各自的能源安全需求，同时加强东盟范围内的更广泛能源合作。

据 CNBC 印尼报道，周先生指出，印尼能源和矿产资源部长巴赫利·拉哈达利亚 (Bahlil Lahadalia) 于 10 月 22 日发表讲话，警告称雅加达可能会重新考虑向那些不给予其“相互尊重”的国家出口能源。

新加坡能源、贸易及工业部长（能源及工业）陈思龙周日（10月25日）表示，减产不太可能在短期内对电价产生太大影响，因为新加坡的大部分天然气价格都是参照全球基准定价的。

“（印尼）可能存在一些国内供应需求和瓶颈，我们能够理解，”他说道，并重申了两国之间的牢固关系。

ESI的布罗德斯托克博士表示，新加坡和印度尼西亚可以利用这个机会，重新讨论如何平衡各自的能源安全需求，同时加强东盟范围内的更广泛能源合作。

长期能源安全

Rystad Energy亚太区油气分析主管Prateek Pandey先生表示，虽然印尼有充分的理由优先考虑其国内能源需求，但要将更多天然气用于此类用途，就需要对基础设施进行投资。

生产商还需要具有商业可行性的价格来维持生产，这给印尼努力在国内保留更多天然气供应又增加了一个考虑因素。

周一，SKK Migas 的商业副总裁 Rayendra Sidik 先生来到新加坡，在新加坡国际能源周的特别会议上发表讲话。

他表示，印尼在平衡国内不断增长的天然气需求方面面临挑战，特别是来自化肥行业等的需求。

雷恩德拉先生补充说，各个行业的需求同时增长，使得规划未来的天然气需求变得困难。

他还表示，印尼的超大规模数据中心对稳定、全天候能源供应的需求也在不断增长，满足这一需求需要周密的计划。

会后，当媒体就出口削减问题向雷恩德拉先生提问时，他拒绝置评，而是将问题转给了印度尼西亚的部长办公室。

SKK Migas 商务副总裁 Rayendra Sidik 先生于 2026 年 10 月 26 日在新加坡国际能源周的一个小组讨论会上发言。（图片：CNA/Alyssa Tan）

Rystad Energy 的 Pandey 先生表示，未来几年印尼能够将多少天然气转移到国内使用是有限的，即将开工的项目（例如 Mako 项目）预计将满足巴淡岛的需求，而管道容量和其他基础设施的限制将限制进一步的转移。

他补充说，超过一定限度，削减出口可能会迫使印尼生产商减少产量，而不是简单地将天然气转售给其他买家。

他指出，早在 2024 年，一些天然气流量的变化就已经计划好了，例如与占碑梅朗气田相关的天然气销售和互换协议等安排就表明了这一点。

潘迪先生表示，总体而言，新加坡通过天然气供应多元化来应对潜在的供应中断，因此最新的减产措施对新加坡来说应该是“可控的”——除非出现进一步的减产幅度更大或油田生产中断等情况。

他补充说，虽然预计最近的减产是可以应对的，但新加坡面临的更大考验可能在 2028 年之后，届时现有的天然气出口合同将开始到期。

布罗德斯托克博士指出，由于中东冲突导致全球能源供应链中断，新加坡已经开始审查和重新配置其天然气进口。

他补充说，在国际天然气市场上找到替代供应应该“相对容易”。

福凯博士强调，来自澳大利亚和美国的液化天然气 (LNG) 是潜在的选择。

然而，RSIS的周博士表示，扩大液化天然气基础设施和实现供应多元化并不能使新加坡免受能源风险的影响。

他表示，与其依赖进口资源，不如通过太阳能或核能发展国内发电能力，这将使新加坡获得更大程度的能源独立性。

他补充说，特别是核能，可以提供低碳电力来源，能够满足持续的需求。

作为电力行业脱碳努力的一部分，新加坡也在扩大低碳电力进口来源。

新加坡能源市场管理局（EMA）周一（10月26日）宣布，已向胜科电力公司（Sembcorp Utilities）有条件批准其向新加坡进口1.3吉瓦电力。

胜科公用事业公司正与 MY Energy Consortium 和 Petrovietnam Technical Services Corporation 合作，采购和整合低碳电力，包括来自越南的海上风能和来自马来西亚的太阳能，目标是在 2035 年开始进口。

新加坡还向来自澳大利亚、柬埔寨、印度尼西亚、马来西亚和越南的电力进口项目颁发了有条件批准和许可证。

然而，布罗德斯托克博士警告说，各国优先考虑国内能源需求的影响可能不仅限于天然气进口。

他表示，如果这种做法在该地区变得更加普遍，新加坡可能需要认真审查其能源依赖情况，包括低碳电力进口。

2026年10月25日，总理黄循财在人民行动党2026年颁奖典礼暨党代会上发表讲话。（图片：CNA/Syamil Sapari）

短期影响有限

尽管存在这些长期担忧，但四位分析师均告诉亚洲新闻台，最新的减产不太可能对新加坡的能源安全或电价产生重大影响，这与政府早前的评估相呼应。

ESI 的 Broadstock 博士表示，此次减产本身不会影响国际天然气价格，因此其影响更容易控制。

新加坡能源市场管理局（EMA）周六表示，印尼天然气出口削减幅度不到新加坡每日需求的2%，并补充说，新加坡有足够的供应和应急计划来应对此类中断。

天然气约占新加坡发电量的 95%，其供应来自印度尼西亚和马来西亚的管道，以及国际供应商的液化天然气运输。

新加坡总理黄循财在周日（10月25日）人民行动党大会上发表讲话时表示，新加坡希望所有各方都能履行其商业天然气供应协议。

他说：“新加坡天然气进口商将采取必要措施，保护其在这些合同下的权利和利益。”

黄先生补充说，新加坡一直在通过投资液化天然气接收站来应对此类风险，使其能够从不同国家进口天然气，而无需完全依赖管道。

布罗德斯托克博士表示，如果需要从现货市场额外购买液化天然气以满足发电需求，可能会出现一些短期价格波动。但他补充说，涉及的液化天然气数量“相当有限”，成本变化幅度也不大。

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