Machado finally made it back to Venezuela. Her challenge now is to pressure Rodríguez without upsetting the US

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Maria Corina Machado’s return to Venezuela not only challenges Washington’s vision for the country’s transition, it also puts pressure on acting President Delcy Rodríguez by heightening tensions within her ruling party, which until this Sunday appeared to be weathering the aftershocks of Nicolás Maduro’s capture without major upheaval.

The opposition leader’s presence on the ground disrupts the relative calm which many have come to call the South American country’s “new political moment” following the US military operation that seized Maduro on January 3. In exchange for remaining in power, the Washington-backed Venezuelan government amended some laws, released dozens of political prisoners, allowed some exiles to return, and gave a company that partnered with the Pentagon privileged access to the South American country’s vast oil reserves.

Machado’s unexpected appearance at the Santa Rosa church in Barquisimeto on Sunday, in west-central Venezuela, will also test the Rodríguez-US relationship, which appears to be much stronger than the connection the opposition leader currently has with the Donald Trump administration.

After more than 10 months in exile, Venezuelan opposition leader and Nobel laureate María Corina Machado has returned home to a political landscape that has been reshaped by her ally, the United States, without her involvement. Mary Triny Mena reports.

“The relationship with Washington is strained but not broken. We are aware that the United States is our main strategic ally,” a source close to Machado told CNN.

Machado must now push ahead with her political goals while balancing the delicate relationship with the US.

Washington’s interest in designing an institutional framework for Venezuela without the upheaval that Machado’s presence and her demand for change cause within Chavismo — the socialist political movement named after former President Hugo Chávez — was already clashing with her need to establish herself in the country to regain political momentum, which had begun to fade after a period of just over two years, part of which she spent living underground in exile.

The conflict between the interests of Washington and Machado became even more evident after the double earthquake on June 24 . After that, Machado stepped up pressure to return to Venezuela, something the United States had advised against for security reasons. She tried several times, unsuccessfully, to return from Panama, where she had lived in recent weeks. She was never able to do so “because of the regime’s blockade,” Pedro Urruchurtu, director of international relations for the Vente Venezuela party, said in a statement published Sunday.

She finally succeeded four months after the tragedy without Washington’s expressed approval.

“We felt that it was not the time to ask, but to act. We preferred to act independently so as not to bother anyone,” a source close to Machado told CNN. “And, apparently, the United States did not object. We assume they must have found out beforehand because they know everything,” the source added.

President Trump told CNN that he was unaware of Machado’s return but hoped she was well. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on September 1 that Washington had concerns about her possible return but that she did not need the United States’ approval.

Rubio then said Sunday on X that “the conditions allowing for the safe return” of Machado were “the direct result of the US-backed reconciliation talks, which have already secured the release of hundreds of political prisoners and the return of hundreds of Venezuelan opposition figures.”

“The United States expects the freedoms of all sectors of Venezuelan politics to continue to be respected, and we expect all political actors to support these talks,” Rubio added.

With this, Washington appears to be setting the ground rules for Venezuela’s transition.

It does not oppose Machado’s return, but it does expect that the pressure the Venezuelan leader will exert on Chavismo when she resumes her political activities will not jeopardize the negotiations between delegations from the Rodríguez government and a sector of the opposition, which will eventually culminate in presidential elections, as the acting president herself has acknowledged.

Rodríguez on Monday declined to say whether Machado would be involved in the reconciliation talks but said she hopes the ongoing dialogue will offer a space for all “voices of good” to be heard.

Without naming Machado, she also said she hopes that “those who have harmed Venezuela, those who called for sanctions and external aggression, feel some remorse and regret.” The Venezuelan government has in the past criticized Machado for urging the US to take action against the Maduro regime, including sanctions.

Machado’s team is aware that she is returning to a different country. There have been no major changes in the local economy, still weighed down by the loss of three-quarters of GDP and now seeking to recover from the effects of the double earthquake.

“She has to get a feel for the streets again and see what the next steps are, thinking them through very carefully so as not to make a mistake. She understands that,” a source close to her inner circle said about Machado’s need to make direct contact with supporters in Venezuela after being in exile.

The Vente Venezuela team, Machado’s political movement, has been preparing the ground for its leader’s arrival. Several of its senior figures, including two of the leaders who were confined to the Argentine Embassy compound in Caracas for more than a year, have returned to Venezuela to take part in rallies and events with party members, who are slowly beginning to resume their activities after the harsh repression that followed the disputed results of the July 28, 2024, presidential election.

The opposition leader’s international relations team said in a statement that Machado is returning “to help build and promote a broad and pluralistic national agreement that will make it possible to develop a shared vision for the country.”

“This agreement,” the statement adds, “must transcend political differences, foster understanding and reconciliation, and lay the foundations for a common future grounded in democracy, respect for human rights, peaceful coexistence, and prosperity.”

For now, it is unclear whether Machado’s team is seeking to promote any agreement with the opposition delegation taking part in the US-sponsored dialogue.

JUAN BARRETO/AFP/AFP via Getty Images

‘For many people, the revolution is over,’ says Venezuela analyst

“That alliance would have to be built with her because it does not currently exist,” said a person familiar with the talks with the government. “But if we can establish coordination across the different fronts, it could provide major support for what is being discussed at the negotiating table,” the person acknowledged.

Machado is not part of the negotiations being promoted by the United States, but she has said that she will not obstruct its efforts and will judge them by their results.

Her arrival in Venezuela will energize a public that seemed resigned to waiting for the outcome of the US-backed talks, but she must be careful not to antagonize the country that, despite their differences, remains the key ally of her political project.

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西班牙语分析

玛丽亚·科琳娜·马查多返回委内瑞拉不仅挑战了华盛顿对该国过渡的愿景，也加剧了代理总统德尔西·罗德里格斯执政党内部的紧张局势，从而给她施加了压力。直到本周日，该党似乎还在承受尼古拉斯·马杜罗被捕的余震，没有发生重大动荡。

反对派领导人的出现打破了相对平静的局面，许多人将这个南美国家在1月3日美国军事行动逮捕马杜罗后所迎来的“新政治时刻”称为“新政治时刻”。为了保住权力，华盛顿支持的委内瑞拉政府修改了一些法律，释放了数十名政治犯，允许一些流亡者返回，并给予一家与五角大楼合作的公司特权，使其能够开采该国丰富的石油储备。

马查多周日意外现身委内瑞拉中西部巴基西梅托的圣罗莎教堂，这也将考验罗德里格斯与美国的关系，而罗德里格斯与美国的关系似乎比这位反对派领导人目前与唐纳德·特朗普政府的关系要牢固得多。

在流亡十个多月后，委内瑞拉反对派领导人、诺贝尔奖得主玛丽亚·科琳娜·马查多返回祖国，却发现委内瑞拉的政治格局已被她的盟友美国重塑，而她本人并未参与其中。玛丽·特里尼·梅纳报道。

“与华盛顿的关系虽然紧张，但并未破裂。我们清楚美国是我们的主要战略盟友，”一位与马查多关系密切的消息人士告诉CNN。

马查多现在必须在推进其政治目标的同时，平衡与美国的微妙关系。

华盛顿希望为委内瑞拉设计一个制度框架，避免像马查多那样，在查韦斯主义（以委内瑞拉前总统乌戈·查韦斯命名的社会主义政治运动）内部引发动荡。然而，这与马查多需要在委内瑞拉站稳脚跟以重获政治动力的需求已经产生了冲突。此前，马查多在委内瑞拉的影响力在两年多的时间里开始减弱，其中一部分时间她还流亡在外。

6月24日发生双重地震后，华盛顿与马查多之间的利益冲突更加明显。此后，马查多加大了返回委内瑞拉的力度，而美国出于安全考虑一直劝阻她这样做。她曾多次尝试从巴拿马返回委内瑞拉，但均未成功。她最近几周一直居住在巴拿马。委内瑞拉销售党国际关系主任佩德罗·乌鲁丘尔图在周日发表的一份声明中表示，她始终未能回国，“是因为委内瑞拉政权的封锁”。

悲剧发生四个月后，她终于成功了，而这并未得到华盛顿方面的明确支持。

一位与马查多关系密切的消息人士告诉CNN：“我们觉得当时不是询问的时候，而是采取行动的时候。我们更倾向于独立行动，以免麻烦任何人。”该消息人士补充道：“而且，显然美国方面并没有反对。我们推测他们肯定事先就知道了，因为他们无所不知。”

特朗普总统告诉CNN，他并不知晓马查多回国的消息，但希望她一切安好。美国国务卿马可·卢比奥9月1日表示，华盛顿方面对她可能回国表示担忧，但她无需获得美国的批准。

鲁比奥随后在周日接受 X 电台采访时表示，“允许马查多安全返回的条件”是“美国支持的和解谈判的直接结果，这些谈判已经确保了数百名政治犯获释和数百名委内瑞拉反对派人士返回家园”。

“美国希望委内瑞拉各政治领域的自由继续得到尊重，我们也希望所有政治参与者支持这些会谈，”鲁比奥补充道。

通过此举，华盛顿似乎正在为委内瑞拉的过渡制定基本规则。

它不反对马查多回归，但希望这位委内瑞拉领导人恢复政治活动后对查韦斯主义施加的压力不会危及罗德里格斯政府代表团与部分反对派之间的谈判，而这些谈判最终将以总统选举告终，正如代理总统本人所承认的那样。

罗德里格斯周一拒绝透露马查多是否会参与和解谈判，但她表示，希望正在进行的对话能够为所有“善良的声音”提供一个被听到的空间。

她没有点名马查多，但表示希望“那些伤害委内瑞拉的人，那些呼吁制裁和外部侵略的人，能够感到些许悔恨和遗憾”。委内瑞拉政府过去曾批评马查多敦促美国对马杜罗政权采取行动，包括实施制裁。

马查多的团队很清楚她即将返回一个截然不同的国家。当地经济并未发生重大变化，仍然受到四分之三GDP损失的沉重打击，目前正努力从双重地震的影响中恢复过来。

一位接近马查多核心圈子的消息人士谈到马查多流亡后需要与委内瑞拉的支持者直接接触时说：“她必须重新熟悉街头情况，看看下一步该怎么做，并仔细考虑，以免犯错。她明白这一点。”

马查多的政治运动“委内瑞拉销售”团队一直在为领导人的回国做准备。该团队的几位高级成员，包括两位在阿根廷驻加拉加斯大使馆内被软禁一年多的领导人，已经返回委内瑞拉，与党员们一起参加集会和活动。在2024年7月28日总统选举结果引发争议后，委内瑞拉政府对党员们进行了严厉镇压，而这些党员们也正逐渐恢复活动。

反对派领导人的国际关系团队在一份声明中表示，马查多回国是为了“帮助建立和促进一项广泛而多元化的全国协议，这将使国家能够形成共同愿景”。

声明还补充道：“这项协议必须超越政治分歧，促进理解与和解，并为建立在民主、尊重人权、和平共处和繁荣基础上的共同未来奠定基础。”

目前尚不清楚马查多的团队是否寻求与参加美国主持对话的反对派代表团达成任何协议。

胡安·巴雷托/法新社/法新社来自盖蒂图片社

“对许多人来说，革命已经结束了，”委内瑞拉分析人士说。

一位熟悉政府谈判情况的人士表示：“我们需要与她建立这种联盟，因为目前这种联盟并不存在。”该人士还承认：“但如果我们能够在各个方面建立协调，就能为谈判桌上正在讨论的内容提供重大支持。”

马查多没有参与美国推动的谈判，但她表示不会阻挠谈判，并将根据谈判结果来评判谈判。

她抵达委内瑞拉将激励民众，此前民众似乎已经接受了等待美国支持的谈判结果的现实，但她必须小心，不要激怒这个尽管存在分歧，但仍然是她政治计划的关键盟友的国家。