Trump has made transactional promises in roughly half of states holding key Senate contests

Mark Schiefelbein/AP

President Donald Trump kicked off his general election push at last month’s Republican midterm convention by making voters a highly controversial offer: Keep Republicans in the majority, and every US adult will get $5,000.

Fast forward a month and a half, and he’s gone quite a bit further — and more localized — with his quid pro quos.

In fact, Trump has now offered voters in about half of states holding key Senate contests very specific things if they vote for Republicans.

Sometimes they’re couched as apparent jokes. But increasingly, they’re not. And even the supposed jokes are difficult to dismiss given Trump’s track record.

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While it’s normal for politicians to tell voters what agenda items they’ll pursue if they win and gain power in Congress, many of these are promises Trump could deliver now if he wanted to. But he’s instead holding them over voters’ heads in a strikingly transactional way.

Here’s the progression of quid pro quos.

September 16 : Trump says in Gastonia, North Carolina, that he’ll tie the state’s hurricane disaster relief to voters electing Republican Michael Whatley to the Senate. “Now, if Michael loses, I’m not sending it. Okay?” Trump says, before claiming he’s “only kidding.”

Even if he was joking, the Trump administration has clearly been more generous and quicker with disaster aid in red states , and it recently admitted in court that it made grant decisions “ based solely on the political identity of the grant recipient’s state .”

October 3 : Trump says in Vandalia, Ohio, that, “when you are president, you have a lot of power over states.” He says that Ohio’s GOP senators can their access to Trump to get money for their state, but adds of Democratic gubernatorial nominee Amy Acton: “I’m not gonna help her, probably. She hates me, I guess.”

October 17 : Trump says in Highland Heights, Kentucky, “If the Republicans win, the Department of War will be investing $100 million … to revitalize a gigantic drug manufacturing facility in Winchester, Kentucky.” He then adds, “But if the Democrats win, it doesn’t, because they wouldn’t be able to do it.”

October 19 and 22 : Trump tells rallies in both Park City, Kansas, and Sioux City, Iowa, that he’ll make E15 fuel — gasoline blended with up to 15% ethanol — available on a year-round basis permanently if Republicans win. “With (Kansas GOP Sen.) Roger Marshall in the Senate, we will make year-round E15 permanent,” Trump says in the former appearance, before saying exaggeratedly: “But if (Democrat) Adam Hamilton is in, I’m not doing it. That’s it. I’m only doing it for” Marshall.

October 20 : Trump says in Greenville, North Carolina, that “if we win the House and the Senate, I will be directing the Department of Justice to settle all remaining legitimate claims” related to water contamination at Camp Lejeune “as soon as possible.” He adds: “So, if we don’t win, there’s no money. If we do win, you’re getting it.”

October 24 : Trump says in Perry, Georgia, that he wouldn’t accept calls from Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff looking for help for farmers and other favors. Trump imagines a conversation in which he says, “Tell him I’m not in. I’m not in.” The imaginary other person responds, “But he needs money for Georgia.” Trump says, “I don’t give a damn what he wants. I’m not in.”

October 24 : Trump in a social media post signals he will stop delivering billions of dollars for Alaska if Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola wins. “I have delivered for Alaska at Historic Levels,” Trump says, before adding: “The Democrats are trying to steal this important Republican Seat and, if that happens, everything we’ve done for Alaska will come to an immediate hault” [sic].

Whether any of these comments is couched as a joke or might be read to refer to legislative action — like permanent year-round E15 — the thrust of all of them is unmistakable. Trump wants Americans to associate voting Republican with him giving them things they want.

But he would seem to have just as much power to accomplish those things today as he would after the 2026 election, even if Republicans win. (The GOP, after all, already controls the House and Senate.)

And Trump has been willing to float these quid pro quos even when they involve deadly serious subjects like hurricane relief and compensation for victims who have suffered for years from Camp Lejeune.

Trump is also now offering Americans even larger sums of money — up to $1 million — if they report fraud that results in a conviction.

It’s also not even clear that this strategy is good politics. Polls suggest Trump’s $5,000 offer, for instance, has gone over poorly.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll last month showed registered voters said 66%-18% that Trump’s promise was inappropriate . A more recent NBC News poll showed fewer than 1 in 6 registered voters thought it was likely they would actually get the money if Republicans won. And they said 46%-21% that a candidate supporting Trump’s idea would make them less likely to vote for that person rather than more likely.

But those polls haven’t dissuaded Trump from offering more quid pro quos. If anything, it’s accelerating in the final stretch of the 2026 campaign.

马克·谢费尔贝因/美联社

上个月的共和党中期选举大会上，唐纳德·特朗普总统启动了他的总统大选冲刺计划，他向选民提出了一项极具争议的提议：如果共和党继续保持多数席位，那么每个美国成年人将获得 5000 美元。

一个半月后，他的交换条件已经走得更远，而且更加本地化了。

事实上，特朗普现在已经向大约一半举行关键参议院选举的州的选民承诺，如果他们投票给共和党，就能得到非常具体的好处。

有时它们被包装成看似玩笑的言论。但越来越多的时候，它们并非玩笑。鉴于特朗普的过往记录，即使是那些所谓的玩笑也难以被忽视。

通往2026年中期选举的道路现在就开始了。

每周，亚伦·布莱克都会以犀利的分析，拨开政治迷雾，深入剖析可能决定国会控制权的选情、候选人和趋势。订阅《20/26 视野》周刊，了解今年中期选举的最新动态。

政客们向选民承诺，如果赢得选举并进入国会，他们将推行哪些政策议程，这无可厚非。但其中许多承诺，特朗普如果愿意，现在就能兑现。然而，他却以一种极具交易性的方式，将这些承诺当作筹码来挟持选民。

这是交换条件的进展。

9月16日：特朗普在北卡罗来纳州加斯托尼亚表示，他将把该州的飓风救灾援助与选民选举共和党人迈克尔·沃特利进入参议院挂钩。“如果迈克尔输了，我就不拨款了。明白吗？”特朗普说道，随后又声称自己“只是开玩笑”。

即使他是在开玩笑，特朗普政府显然在红色州的灾难援助方面更加慷慨和迅速，而且最近在法庭上承认，其拨款决定“完全基于受助州的政治身份”。

10月3日：特朗普在俄亥俄州范达利亚表示，“当你当上总统，你对各州拥有很大的权力。” 他说，俄亥俄州的共和党参议员可以利用他们与特朗普的关系为该州争取资金，但他又补充道，对于民主党州长候选人艾米·阿克顿，“我可能不会帮她。我猜她恨我。”

10月17日：特朗普在肯塔基州高地高地表示，“如果共和党获胜，战争部将投资1亿美元……用于振兴肯塔基州温彻斯特的一家巨型药品制造厂。” 他随后补充道，“但如果民主党获胜，就不会有这个项目，因为他们根本做不到。”

10月19日和22日：特朗普在堪萨斯州帕克城和爱荷华州苏城的竞选集会上表示，如果共和党赢得大选，他将永久实行E15燃料（一种混合了高达15%乙醇的汽油）的全年供应。“如果（堪萨斯州共和党参议员）罗杰·马歇尔留在参议院，我们将永久实行E15燃料的全年供应，”特朗普在帕克城的集会上说道，随后又夸张地补充道：“但如果（民主党人）亚当·汉密尔顿当选，我就不会这么做。就是这样。我只会在马歇尔当选的情况下才这么做。”

10月20日：特朗普在北卡罗来纳州格林维尔表示，“如果我们赢得众议院和参议院，我将指示司法部尽快解决所有剩余的与勒琼营水污染相关的合法索赔。” 他补充道：“所以，如果我们输了，就没有钱。如果我们赢了，你们就都能拿到钱。”

10月24日：特朗普在佐治亚州佩里市表示，他不会接听民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫的电话，后者寻求帮助农民和其他方面的帮助。特朗普想象了一场对话，他说：“告诉他，我不参与。我不参与。” 对方回应道：“但他需要钱来帮助佐治亚州。” 特朗普说：“我才不在乎他想要什么。我不参与。”

10月24日：特朗普在社交媒体上发帖暗示，如果民主党前众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉赢得阿拉斯加州初选，他将停止向阿拉斯加州提供数十亿美元的援助。“我为阿拉斯加州提供的援助达到了历史性的水平，”特朗普写道，随后又补充说：“民主党人正试图窃取这个重要的共和党席位，如果这种情况发生，我们为阿拉斯加州所做的一切都将立即停止。”

无论这些言论是玩笑还是暗示着立法行动（例如全年永久供应E15汽油），其背后的意图都十分明确：特朗普希望美国民众将投票给共和党与他满足他们的需求联系起来。

但即便共和党在2026年大选中获胜，他现在似乎也拥有与之后同样强大的权力来实现这些目标。（毕竟，共和党已经控制了众议院和参议院。）

即使涉及飓风救济和对多年来遭受勒琼营迫害的受害者进行赔偿等极其严肃的话题，特朗普也愿意提出这些交换条件。

特朗普现在还承诺，如果美国人举报欺诈行为并最终导致定罪，他们将获得更高额的奖励——最高可达 100 万美元。

而且，这种策略是否明智也尚不明确。例如，民调显示，特朗普提出的5000美元方案反响不佳。

路透社/益普索上个月的民调显示，66%的登记选民认为特朗普的承诺不妥，只有18%的选民持相反意见。而NBC新闻最近的一项民调显示，不到六分之一的登记选民认为，如果共和党获胜，他们很可能真的能拿到这笔钱。此外，46%的选民表示，如果候选人支持特朗普的想法，他们会更不愿意投票给该候选人，而持相反意见的选民仅占21%。

但这些民调并没有阻止特朗普提出更多交换条件。恰恰相反，在2026年大选的最后阶段，这种做法反而愈演愈烈。