What Vucic’s defeat means for Serbia’s foreign policy

Those expecting Belgrade to tilt towards the West may need patience while the new government deals with domestic issues.

Celebrations in Belgrade as longtime leader Aleksandar Vucic conceded defeat following Sunday's election (AP)

Serbia has reached a watershed moment following 14 years of authoritarian rule by Aleksandar Vucic and his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS).

Sunday’s election delivered a historic victory for the opposition Student List, ending the political dominance that Vucic and the SNS had exercised/enforced for 14 years.

As Belgrade prepares for a turbulent transition and the upcoming presidential elections in December, international observers and regional neighbours have been asking whether Vucic’s departure will prompt a shift in Serbia’s foreign policy.

However, while international analysts often anticipate a quick foreign policy pivot toward the West whenever an authoritarian regime falls, experts warn that internal consolidation will take immediate priority and any transformation will be gradual.

Domestic cleanup before regional reset

SNS’s defeat has brought a mixture of cautious optimism and uncertainty across the Western Balkans. Serbia’s relations with Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro and Kosovo have often been frayed by Vucic’s nationalistic rhetoric.

Aleksandar Popov, director of the Centre for Regionalism in Novi Sad in Serbia, told Al Jazeera that a rapid reset in regional relations was unlikely.

“These questions will not be on the agenda immediately,” he said, referring to relations with Serbia’s neighbours.

The new authorities will first have to tackle domestic problems, he said, including dealing with a system that has “captured all democratic institutions”, as well as problems in the judiciary, prosecution service, police and media sector.

“Tidying up at home” will take priority before “solving problems with the neighbours”, Popov said, despite noting that the outgoing regime had done everything possible to undermine regional relations.

While relations with Croatia are “not frozen” neither are they “the way they should … be between neighbours”, being marked by frequent sharp words.

Amid recent mass protests in Serbia, Vucic accused Zagreb of organising a “colour revolution”.

In addition, “relations with Montenegro are disrupted and issues with Bosnia and Herzegovina remain unresolved,” he said.

Stabilising the region

Croatia is the thorniest case, Popov suggested, noting that relations deteriorated as the SNS clashed with Croatia’s ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), which stems from a similar nationalist-populist stable.

“Zagreb would fire a poisoned arrow at Serbia and that gave Belgrade an argument to retaliate,” he said, describing a system that “functioned on the production of internal and external enemies”.

Meanwhile, behind the public hostility, lay a quiet convergence on Bosnia and Herzegovina, he argued, with Belgrade backing Republika Srpska leader Milorad Dodik and Zagreb favouring a third entity.

He expressed hope that a new government in Serbia led by experts and civic leaders, would work towards stabilising the region and revive Serbia’s hopes of joining the European Union.

“The previous government sabotaged EU integration and the EU will not accept a country without good neighbourly relations. The new government’s task will be to repair those damaged ties,” Popov said.

Beyond the immediate neighbourhood, global powers are closely watching Belgrade.

Under Vucic, Serbia maintained a delicate balancing act, refusing to impose sanctions on Russia despite heavy pressure from the EU, while simultaneously allowing ammunition to flow indirectly to Ukraine.

Of all elements of Serbian public policy, foreign policy will transform the least under the forthcoming governmental changes, Vuk Vuksanovic, a lecturer in foreign policy at King’s College London, predicted to Al Jazeera.

“Many international and domestic structures that shape Serbian foreign policy will remain in place,” he said, adding that Moscow never fully trusted Vucic, but viewed him instead as “the devil they knew”.

Russian influence will take a blow, with the end of uncritical glorification of Moscow in Vucic-controlled tabloids and media and intelligence cooperation to be downgraded, he said, but the new government is unlikely to adopt a hawkish stance overnight.

Serbian interests can continue to be served by ties with Russia, he asserted. “The country still needs preferential gas prices, the Kosovo dispute remains unresolved and parts of the public remain disillusioned with the West.”

“The new Serbian government will not see value in joining EU sanctions or adopting a hawkish stance toward Moscow,” Vuksanovic continued.

“Regarding Ukraine, Serbia will maintain its policy of not recognising the annexation of Crimea and Donbas. However, there is a question mark over ammunition deliveries, as the opposition viewed Vucic’s weapons sales to Kyiv as a cynical ploy to buy Western tolerance for his domestic rule.”

Another critical dimension of Serbia’s external relations is its close relationship with Israel. Under Vucic, Serbia established a strong partnership with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, marked by arms trade and technology exchanges.

Bosko Jaksic, a foreign policy analyst, told Al Jazeera that while ties will not be severed, recent controversial agreements will face scrutiny.

“The new government has no reason to abandon cooperation with Israel, but it will certainly re-examine newly concluded contracts – primarily those concerning Serbian ammunition exports to Israel and Israeli surveillance equipment exports to Serbia,” Jaksic said.

The analyst also noted that Netanyahu’s government has lost another “authoritarian, nationalist ally” in Europe after Viktor Orban’s removal in Hungary earlier this year. However, Serbia’s future stance will also depend on political developments in Jerusalem.

“How Israel positions itself toward the new authorities in Belgrade depends largely on the outcome of Israel’s own elections,” Jaksic added.

Looking at the broader geopolitical alignment, he emphasised that Serbia’s foreign policy will inevitably undergo a review.

He suggested that “the policy of ‘sitting on multiple chairs,’ which brought Serbia more harm than good, will certainly be re-evaluated”, and that it is realistic to expect Belgrade to strengthen ties with the EU.

But as Serbia enters a new political era, the international community should expect a period of intense internal reform rather than sudden geopolitical realignments, all of the analysts agree.

那些期待贝尔格莱德向西方靠拢的人可能需要耐心等待新政府处理国内问题。

贝尔格莱德爆发庆祝活动，长期执政的领导人亚历山大·武契奇在周日的选举后承认败选（美联社）

在亚历山大·武契奇及其塞尔维亚进步党（SNS）长达 14 年的威权统治之后，塞尔维亚迎来了一个分水岭时刻。

周日的选举为反对派学生名单带来了历史性的胜利，结束了武契奇和塞尔维亚进步党14年来的政治统治。

贝尔格莱德正准备迎接动荡的过渡时期以及即将到来的 12 月总统选举，国际观察人士和地区邻国一直在询问武契奇的下台是否会促使塞尔维亚外交政策发生转变。

然而，尽管国际分析人士通常预期，一旦一个威权政权垮台，其外交政策就会迅速转向西方，但专家警告说，内部巩固将是当务之急，任何转变都将是渐进的。

区域重置前的国内清理

塞尔维亚进步党（SNS）的败选给西巴尔干地区带来了谨慎乐观与不确定性交织的情绪。武契奇的民族主义言论常常令塞尔维亚与波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那、克罗地亚、黑山和科索沃的关系变得紧张。

塞尔维亚诺维萨德地区主义中心主任亚历山大·波波夫告诉半岛电视台，地区关系不太可能迅速重置。

“这些问题不会立即提上议程，”他指的是与塞尔维亚邻国的关系。

他表示，新政府首先要解决国内问题，包括应对“控制了所有民主机构”的体制，以及司法、检察机关、警察和媒体部门的问题。

波波夫表示，“先整顿国内事务”比“解决与邻国的问题”更为重要，尽管他同时指出，即将卸任的政权已经竭尽所能破坏地区关系。

虽然与克罗地亚的关系“并未冻结”，但也不是“邻国之间应有的关系”，双方经常言辞激烈。

在塞尔维亚近期爆发的大规模抗议活动中，武契奇指责萨格勒布组织了一场“颜色革命”。

他还表示，“与黑山的关系受到干扰，与波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那的问题仍未解决。”

稳定该地区

波波夫指出，克罗地亚的情况最为棘手，因为塞尔维亚进步党（SNS）与克罗地亚执政的克罗地亚民主联盟（HDZ）发生冲突，导致两国关系恶化，而克罗地亚民主联盟也源于类似的民族主义民粹主义阵营。

“萨格勒布会向塞尔维亚射出一支毒箭，这给了贝尔格莱德报复的理由，”他说道，并描述了一个“靠制造内部和外部敌人来运作”的体系。

与此同时，他认为，在公众的敌意背后，各方在波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那问题上悄然达成共识，贝尔格莱德支持塞族共和国领导人米洛拉德·多迪克，而萨格勒布则倾向于建立第三个实体。

他表示希望由专家和公民领袖领导的塞尔维亚新政府能够致力于稳定该地区，并重振塞尔维亚加入欧盟的希望。

波波夫表示：“上届政府破坏了欧盟一体化进程，欧盟不会接受一个没有良好睦邻关系的国家。新政府的任务是修复这些受损的关系。”

除了周边地区，世界各国都在密切关注贝尔格莱德。

在武契奇的领导下，塞尔维亚维持着一种微妙的平衡，尽管面临欧盟的巨大压力，却拒绝制裁俄罗斯，同时又允许弹药间接流向乌克兰。

伦敦国王学院外交政策讲师武克·武克萨诺维奇向半岛电视台预测，在塞尔维亚公共政策的所有方面中，外交政策在即将到来的政府更迭中变化最小。

他说：“许多影响塞尔维亚外交政策的国际和国内结构将继续存在”，并补充说，莫斯科从未完全信任武契奇，而是把他视为“他们熟悉的魔鬼”。

他表示，俄罗斯的影响力将受到打击，武契奇控制的小报上对莫斯科的无条件吹捧将结束，媒体和情报合作也将降级，但新政府不太可能在一夜之间采取鹰派立场。

他断言，塞尔维亚的利益仍然可以继续通过与俄罗斯保持关系来维护。“塞尔维亚仍然需要优惠的天然气价格，科索沃争端仍未解决，而且部分民众仍然对西方感到失望。”

“塞尔维亚新政府不会认为加入欧盟制裁或对莫斯科采取强硬立场有任何好处，”武克萨诺维奇继续说道。

“关于乌克兰问题，塞尔维亚将继续奉行不承认克里米亚和顿巴斯被吞并的政策。然而，弹药交付问题尚存疑问，因为反对派认为武契奇向基辅出售武器是为换取西方对其国内统治的容忍而耍的伎俩。”

塞尔维亚对外关系的另一个关键方面是其与以色列的密切关系。在武契奇领导下，塞尔维亚与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡的政府建立了牢固的伙伴关系，其特点是军火贸易和技术交流。

外交政策分析师博斯科·雅克西奇告诉半岛电视台，虽然两国关系不会断绝，但最近一些备受争议的协议将受到审查。

“新政府没有理由放弃与以色列的合作，但肯定会重新审查新签订的合同——主要是涉及塞尔维亚向以色列出口弹药和以色列向塞尔维亚出口监视设备的合同，”雅克西奇说。

分析人士还指出，继今年早些时候匈牙利总理欧尔班下台后，内塔尼亚胡政府在欧洲又失去了一位“威权主义民族主义盟友”。然而，塞尔维亚未来的立场也将取决于耶路撒冷的政治局势发展。

“以色列如何对待贝尔格莱德的新当局，很大程度上取决于以色列自身选举的结果，”雅克西奇补充道。

从更广泛的地缘政治格局来看，他强调塞尔维亚的外交政策必然会进行重新审视。

他表示，“塞尔维亚奉行的‘身兼数职’的政策弊大于利，肯定会重新评估这一政策”，并认为贝尔格莱德加强与欧盟的关系是现实的。

但所有分析人士都一致认为，随着塞尔维亚进入新的政治时代，国际社会应该预期的是一段充满变革的内部改革时期，而不是突然的地缘政治格局重组。