Mecca defence alliance members in Tehran to defuse Iran-US, Yemen tensions

Countering Houthi advances in Yemen will be a major focus for Saudi Arabia and its allies, though the regional picture remains complex and intertwined.

This handout picture provided by the Iranian presidency shows (L to R) Saudi Arabia's Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman Al-Saud, Pakistan's army chief General Syed Asim Munir, and Turkey's intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin during their meeting with Iran's President, Foreign Minister, and National Security Council head in Tehran on October 26, 2026 [AFP]

Tehran, Iran – Ministers and senior security officials from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye – the three nations that signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement – are in Tehran to discuss regional security issues amid threats of new US strikes on Iran.

Saudi Defence Minister Khalid bin Salman Al Saud, Pakistani military chief Asim Munir and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin met Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian and will discuss tensions with security chief Mohsen Rezaei.

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The meetings are among the highest-profile dialogues held in Tehran in recent months. While there is still little information on what might be discussed, the meetings come amid a flurry of diplomatic activity to deal with a new escalation between the United States and Iran .

“The Mecca pact’s 11th-hour visit to Tehran is an attempt to tip the balance in favour of those willing to compromise before the guns start blazing again,” said Ali Vaez, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at the International Crisis Group.

“But unless they arrive with a credible formula to bridge the US-Iran divide, they may find themselves with little more than goodwill in a race against the clock.”

The talks are expected to address the waves of missile and drone attacks carried out by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who are allied with Tehran, on Saudi Arabia, which supports Yemen’s internationally recognised government.

“I believe that parties to the Mecca agreement lack options of military engagement with the Houthis, but Riyadh is certainly asserting greater pressure for more, and its expectation of its partners has grown in parallel with the offensive from Yemen,” Ayesha Siddiqa, a senior research fellow in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, told Al Jazeera.

But despite the collective security arrangement in the Mecca defence pact, Saudi Arabia’s allies Turkiye and Pakistan cannot “afford to commit troops on the ground” in Yemen, said Siddiqa.

The latest diplomatic push is likely linked to visits by Pakistani army chief Asim Munir to Saudi Arabia and Iran last week, Siddiqa said, and coincides with Islamabad’s restrictions on overland border trade with Tehran amid the US blockade on Iran.

Iranian authorities have said they favoured “security originating from within the region” as they prepared for the meetings.

Umer Karim, who researches Saudi foreign policy and its implications for regional security, said the Tehran meetings are unlikely to reduce the risk of a renewed war between Iran and the US, which would likely lead to more regional turmoil.

“Therefore, these talks perhaps are more concerned about the security of Saudi Arabia and involve an attempt by Turkiye and Pakistan to compel Iran to reach a compromise,” he told Al Jazeera.

Sanam Vakil, the director of Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa programme, said she was “cautiously optimistic” about the impact of the immediate meeting, but “less positive” about a lasting breakthrough.

“Iran has strong incentives to avoid another major confrontation, and there may be room for limited understandings, particularly concerning Yemen,” she said. “However, the Houthis have their own calculations, and Iran’s influence over them is not absolute. Preventing renewed US-Israeli attacks will be even more difficult because the fundamental disagreements between Tehran and Washington remain unresolved.”

Traffic moves past portraits of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei in Tehran on October 21, 2026 [Atta Kenare / AFP]

US President Donald Trump is said to be considering new attacks to break the diplomatic deadlock with Iran, which has refused to agree to any peace agreement with Washington unless several of its demands are met.

The US and regional powers want international shipping and transit through the Strait of Hormuz to resume without impediments or attacks. Washington also wants to rein in Tehran’s nuclear programme and bring in international inspectors to assess Iran’s highly enriched uranium . Israel says it wants to overthrow the Islamic Republic.

Tehran wants to lift the US naval blockade of Iran’s southern ports, which has halted crude oil exports and disrupted most trade, and return to a memorandum of understanding agreed between the two countries in June.

The US has refused this, with President Trump saying he is left with a choice to “finish the job” by launching major strikes on Iran’s civilian infrastructure. This could prompt Iran to lash out at its neighbours, as it did earlier in the war with strikes on US bases in Arab states and infrastructure.

Meanwhile, the US Department of State issued an October 21 order for nonemergency US government employees and their family ⁠members to leave Saudi Arabia for their safety’s sake, given the Houthi threat.

As talks involving Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkiye continue in Iran, analysts say these Mecca Joint Defence Agreement signatories will likely try to minimise the impact on Saudi Arabia if war does break out again.

“However, since little has changed from an Iranian strategic calculus and the actors involved don’t have the kind of leverage needed to affect Iran’s strategic thinking, these negotiations are going to yield little,” Karim said.

尽管地区局势依然复杂交织，但遏制胡塞武装在也门的推进仍将是沙特阿拉伯及其盟友的重点工作。

这张由伊朗总统府提供的照片显示（从左至右）沙特阿拉伯国防大臣哈立德·本·萨勒曼·阿勒沙特亲王、巴基斯坦陆军参谋长赛义德·阿西姆·穆尼尔将军和土耳其情报局长易卜拉欣·卡林于2026年10月26日在德黑兰会见了伊朗总统、外交部长和国家安全委员会主席。[法新社]

伊朗德黑兰——巴基斯坦、沙特阿拉伯和土耳其这三个签署了《麦加联合防御协议》的国家的部长和高级安全官员齐聚德黑兰，讨论地区安全问题，以应对美国对伊朗发动新一轮袭击的威胁。

沙特国防大臣哈立德·本·萨勒曼·阿勒沙特、巴基斯坦军事首长阿西姆·穆尼尔和土耳其情报局长易卜拉欣·卡林会见了伊朗总统马苏德·佩泽什基安，并将与伊朗安全局局长穆赫辛·雷扎伊讨论紧张局势。

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这些会谈是近几个月来在德黑兰举行的最引人注目的对话之一。尽管目前尚不清楚会谈内容，但此次会谈正值美伊关系新一轮紧张升级之际，各方展开了一系列外交活动。

“麦加条约组织在最后一刻访问德黑兰，是为了在枪声再次响起之前，扭转局势，使愿意妥协的人占上风，”国际危机组织中东和北非项目副主任阿里·瓦埃兹说。

“但是，除非他们能拿出弥合美伊分歧的可信方案，否则在与时间赛跑的过程中，他们可能最终得到的仅仅是善意而已。”

预计会谈将讨论也门胡塞武装（与德黑兰结盟）对沙特阿拉伯（支持也门国际公认政府）发动的导弹和无人机袭击。

“我认为麦加协议各方缺乏与胡塞武装进行军事接触的选择，但利雅得无疑正在施加更大的压力，要求采取更多行动，而且随着也门攻势的加剧，它对合作伙伴的期望也随之增长，”伦敦国王学院战争研究系高级研究员艾莎·西迪卡告诉半岛电视台。

西迪卡表示，尽管《麦加防务条约》中规定了集体安全安排，但沙特阿拉伯的盟友土耳其和巴基斯坦“无法承担在也门派遣地面部队的后果”。

西迪卡表示，最新的外交努力可能与巴基斯坦陆军参谋长阿西姆·穆尼尔上周访问沙特阿拉伯和伊朗有关，并且恰逢美国封锁伊朗之际，伊斯兰堡限制了与德黑兰的陆路边境贸易。

伊朗当局在筹备会议时表示，他们倾向于“来自地区内部的安全”。

研究沙特外交政策及其对地区安全影响的乌梅尔·卡里姆表示，德黑兰会议不太可能降低伊朗和美国之间再次爆发战争的风险，这很可能导致地区更加动荡。

“因此，这些会谈或许更关注沙特阿拉伯的安全，并且是土耳其和巴基斯坦试图迫使伊朗达成妥协的举措，”他告诉半岛电视台。

查塔姆研究所中东和北非项目主任萨纳姆·瓦基尔表示，她对此次会晤的直接影响持“谨慎乐观”态度，但对取得持久突破则“不太乐观”。

她表示：“伊朗有强烈的动机避免再次发生重大冲突，双方或许存在达成有限谅解的空间，尤其是在也门问题上。然而，胡塞武装有自己的考量，伊朗对他们的影响力并非绝对。由于德黑兰和华盛顿之间的根本分歧依然存在，阻止美以再次发动袭击将更加困难。”

2026年10月21日，在德黑兰，车辆驶过伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉·穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊的画像。[Atta Kenare / AFP]

据称，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普正在考虑发动新的袭击，以打破与伊朗的外交僵局。伊朗拒绝与华盛顿达成任何和平协议，除非其若干要求得到满足。

美国和地区大国希望霍尔木兹海峡的国际航运和过境能够恢复畅通无阻，免受任何攻击。华盛顿还希望遏制德黑兰的核计划，并引入国际核查人员评估伊朗的高浓缩铀。以色列则声称要推翻伊朗伊斯兰共和国。

德黑兰希望解除美国对伊朗南部港口的海上封锁，该封锁已导致原油出口中断，并扰乱了大部分贸易，并希望恢复两国在6月份达成的谅解备忘录。

美国拒绝了这一提议，特朗普总统表示，他别无选择，只能通过对伊朗民用基础设施发动大规模打击来“完成任务”。这可能会促使伊朗像战争初期那样，对邻国发动报复，袭击位于阿拉伯国家的美国基地和基础设施。

与此同时，鉴于胡塞武装的威胁，美国国务院于 10 月 21 日发布命令，要求非紧急美国政府雇员及其家属为了自身安全离开沙特阿拉伯。

沙特阿拉伯、巴基斯坦和土耳其在伊朗继续举行会谈，分析人士表示，如果战争再次爆发，这些《麦加联合防御协议》签署国可能会试图将对沙特阿拉伯的影响降到最低。

“然而，由于伊朗的战略考量几乎没有改变，而且相关各方也没有影响伊朗战略思维所需的筹码，因此这些谈判不会取得多少成果，”卡里姆说。