US midterm elections 2026 in maps and charts

On November 3, Americans decide which party controls the US Congress for the second half of Donald Trump’s presidency.

On November 3, about 210 million registered voters will decide how much power Donald Trump has for the rest of his US presidency.

Trump is not on the ballot, but control of the United States Congress is. Made up of the House of Representatives and the Senate, Congress writes the country’s laws and controls federal spending.

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In this visual explainer, Al Jazeera breaks down how the elections work, which races matter and what the results could mean for either party.

What happens in the midterm elections?

Held halfway through a US president’s four-year term, midterm elections decide the makeup of Congress.

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats are being contested, including special elections in the states of Florida and Ohio to fill the seats vacated by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance. Voters in 36 states will also elect governors.

House members represent one congressional district each and serve two-year terms, while senators serve six-year terms.

Midterm elections are also widely considered a referendum on the sitting president’s performance.

Since 1946, the president’s party has lost an average of 26.5 seats in the House and a handful in the Senate in midterm elections, according to Todd Belt, a professor of political management at George Washington University.

Beyond Congress and governors, voters will also elect state legislators and local officials.

Nadia Brown, a professor of government at Georgetown University, said that while national elections get most of the attention, “It is important to remember that local politics is where most Americans interact with government.”

She added that “It is the local propositions or referendums on ballots [that] will impact the everyday lives of people.”

What is at stake in the House and Senate?

Republicans hold majorities in both chambers. Losing either would give Democrats the power to block legislation and launch investigations into Trump’s administration.

Democrats need to gain three seats in the House and four in the Senate to take control. A 50-50 split in the Senate would leave Republicans in control, because Vance can cast tie-breaking votes.

Belt said a Democratic victory could significantly limit Trump’s ability to pursue his domestic agenda.

“If Democrats take one chamber, all non-government funding legislation will grind to a halt,” he told Al Jazeera.

How do House elections work?

The House of Representatives is the lower house of the US Congress.

Its 435 members each represent one local district and serve two-year terms, so every seat is contested every two years.

Seats are divided among the states by population, based on the US Census conducted every 10 years. California, the most populous state, has 52 seats, while the least populous, such as Wyoming and Vermont, have one each.

A party needs 218 seats for a majority.

Republicans currently control the House, with 218 seats to the Democrats’ 214, and one independent sits with the Republicans. Two seats are vacant, one last held by each party.

The new House will be sworn in on January 3, 2027.

The House races to watch

Each district elects its own representative, and the party that wins 218 seats takes control, so a few narrow wins in close districts can decide the majority.

Belt estimates that about 35 House races could decide the majority. He predicts Democrats could gain about 15 seats, despite Republican redistricting that he says has given the party an advantage in nine additional districts.

“People generally vote straight ticket, meaning they will vote for all the candidates of one party, so this is likely to affect down-ballot races [as well],” he said.

A battleground district is a seat either party could realistically win. The graphic below highlights 12 of these key races to watch.

How do Senate elections work?

The Senate is the upper house of the US Congress.

Its 100 members, two from each state regardless of population, are elected statewide and serve six-year terms, with about a third of seats contested every two years.

This year, 33 seats are being contested in regular elections, alongside special elections in Florida and Ohio. Those two contests will fill the remaining two years of terms previously held by Marco Rubio and JD Vance.

Of the 35 seats being contested, Republicans hold 22, and Democrats hold 13.

Republicans currently have 53 senators. Democrats have 45, and two independents sit with them, giving the Democratic bloc 47 seats.

Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach 51 and take control. Republicans can keep control with 50 because Vice President Vance can break tied votes.

The new Senate will be sworn in on January 3, 2027.

The Senate races to watch

To win the Senate, Democrats must hold the 13 seats they are defending and flip Republican-held ones.

In Georgia, Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff faces Republican Mike Collins. Michigan’s open seat pits Democrat Abdul El-Sayed against Republican Mike Rogers, while Democrat Chris Pappas faces Republican John Sununu for an open seat in New Hampshire.

Republican-held seats offer Democrats opportunities elsewhere. In Maine, Senator Susan Collins faces Democrat Troy Jackson, who replaced primary winner Graham Platner after he withdrew in July. North Carolina’s open seat pits Democrat Roy Cooper against Republican Michael Whatley.

Ohio, Alaska and Iowa are also competitive, while Texas and Kansas have drawn growing attention as Democrats look for more routes to a majority.

Although Democrats face a more difficult path to a Senate majority than to control of the House, the growing number of competitive races has increased their chances of winning the chamber, according to election analysts.

What are the key election issues?

The cost of living tops voters’ concerns, with rising petrol prices, housing costs and healthcare coverage squeezing household budgets.

Reproductive rights remain a major issue, while immigration and the state of US democracy are also on the ballot.

The US-Israel war on Iran and the rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI)` and data centres have raised further questions about security, jobs and energy costs.

Who votes in the midterms?

About 210 million Americans are registered to vote, nearly eight in 10 US residents aged 18 or older, according to USAFacts, a nonpartisan organisation that compiles government data.

California has the most registered voters, with 23.2 million, followed by Texas (17.4 million) and Florida (13.6 million). Together, they account for about 26 percent of all registered voters.

Wyoming (278,468), Vermont (459,455) and Alaska (603,310) have the fewest.

How different groups plan to vote

A Pew Research Center survey conducted from September 28 to October 4 found that 44 percent of registered voters backed the Democratic candidate in their district, compared with 36 percent for the Republican. Five percent support another candidate, and 15 percent are unsure.

Men are evenly split, with 42 percent backing each party, while women favour Democrats by 45 percent to 31 percent.

The graphic below shows how voting preferences differ by gender, race, age, education and party affiliation.

US election voter turnout

Fewer Americans vote in midterms than in presidential elections. Since 1944, average turnout has been about 42 percent in midterms, compared with 58 percent in presidential races.

What happens if Republicans lose the House?

A Democratic House could block Republican legislation and use its committees to investigate the Trump administration. It would also hold the power to impeach the president, which only the House can do.

Control would also give Democrats leverage over government funding. Every bill needs approval from both chambers, so a Republican Senate could not pass laws on its own.

Belt expects a Democratic-controlled House to lead to more confrontations over federal spending, including the 12 annual bills needed to fund federal agencies. That raises the possibility of further government shutdowns, when funding lapses and many federal services stop.

Belt also believes that Trump could turn increasingly to foreign policy if his domestic agenda faces opposition in Congress.

“Traditionally, presidents facing divided government in their last two years pivot to foreign policy almost exclusively. I think the same will be true for Trump,” he said.

What happens if Republicans lose the Senate?

A Democratic Senate could block legislation and reject presidential nominees, including federal judges, Supreme Court justices, cabinet officials and ambassadors.

That makes Senate control consequential beyond the next two years. Federal judges serve for life, shaping rulings long after a presidency ends.

The Senate also holds the trial if the House impeaches a president. Removing a president from office requires a two-thirds majority, a threshold neither party is likely to reach.

Would winning both chambers give Democrats full control?

No. Trump would remain president and could veto legislation, and overriding a veto requires a two-thirds vote in each chamber.

Senate rules also require 60 votes to end debate on most legislation, though some budget bills can pass with a simple majority. A narrow majority therefore does not guarantee a party can pass its programme.

A Democratic House could open impeachment proceedings against Trump, who has already been impeached twice. However, removing a president from office requires a two-thirds majority in the Senate.

Belt considers another impeachment unlikely.

“There will definitely be investigations,” he told Al Jazeera, but added, “There will not likely be another impeachment because Democrats tried that twice and Republicans rallied behind Trump.”

When will we know the results?

Results will begin emerging after the first polls close at 6pm Eastern time (23:00 GMT) on November 3, but some close races could take days to resolve.

Election night results are preliminary. Final tallies can take days or sometimes weeks as officials count mail-in, provisional and other outstanding ballots before certifying the results, and the pace varies by state.

“In some states, it may take up to a week or more,” Belt said.

Some contests may go further. In Georgia, if no Senate candidate wins a majority, the race goes to a run-off election on December 1.

Belt warned that early results could give a misleading picture of the outcome. Because Republicans have historically been less likely than Democrats to vote by mail, some states could initially appear to favour Republican candidates before later-counted ballots narrow or reverse their leads. This is known as the “red mirage”. In states that count mail ballots first, the reverse can happen.

A delay in counting or a change in which candidate is leading does not, by itself, indicate electoral fraud.

The vote will decide who writes legislation, scrutinises the administration and controls federal spending, setting the balance of power for the rest of Trump’s term.

11月3日，美国民众将决定哪个党派将在唐纳德·特朗普总统任期的后半段控制美国国会。

11月3日，约2.1亿注册选民将决定唐纳德·特朗普在其美国总统任期剩余时间内拥有多大的权力。

特朗普的名字不在选票上，但美国国会的控制权却至关重要。国会由众议院和参议院组成，负责制定国家法律并控制联邦支出。

（共4条，第1条）奥巴马抨击特朗普的“残忍和腐败”，并向民主党人发表讲话

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列举四项“不必要的”伊朗战争和腐败问题中的第三项：奥巴马中期选举演讲的要点

据报道，美国中央司令部有针对伊朗的打击计划：特朗普会批准吗？（列表 4/4）

在这段图文并茂的解释视频中，半岛电视台详细讲解了选举的运作方式、哪些选举比较重要以及选举结果对双方可能意味着什么。

中期选举会发生什么？

美国总统四年任期过半时举行的中期选举决定国会的组成。

众议院全部435个席位和参议院100个席位中的35个席位都将进行选举，其中包括佛罗里达州和俄亥俄州的特别选举，以填补美国国务卿马可·卢比奥和副总统JD·万斯离任后留下的空缺。此外，36个州的选民还将选举州长。

众议院议员每人代表一个国会选区，任期两年；参议员任期六年。

中期选举也被广泛认为是对现任总统政绩的一次全民公投。

据乔治·华盛顿大学政治管理学教授托德·贝尔特称，自 1946 年以来，总统所在的政党在中期选举中平均在众议院失去 26.5 个席位，在参议院失去几个席位。

除了国会议员和州长之外，选民还将选举州议员和地方官员。

乔治城大学政府学教授纳迪亚·布朗表示，虽然全国选举最受关注，“但重要的是要记住，大多数美国人与政府互动的地方是地方政治。”

她补充说：“真正会影响人们日常生活的是选票上的地方提案或公投。”

众议院和参议院的选举结果究竟有何利害关系？

共和党在参众两院均占据多数席位。失去其中任何一席都将使民主党拥有阻止立法和对特朗普政府展开调查的权力。

民主党需要在众议院赢得三个席位，在参议院赢得四个席位才能控制两院。如果参议院两党席位持平，共和党将继续掌控两院，因为万斯拥有打破僵局的关键一票。

贝尔特表示，民主党的胜利可能会大大限制特朗普推行其国内议程的能力。

“如果民主党控制一个议院，所有非政府资金立法都将陷入停滞，”他告诉半岛电视台。

众议院选举是如何进行的？

美国众议院是美国国会的下议院。

该委员会由 435 名成员组成，每人代表一个地方选区，任期两年，因此每个席位每两年进行一次选举。

众议院席位按各州人口比例分配，分配依据是每十年一次的美国人口普查。人口最多的加利福尼亚州拥有52个席位，而人口最少的州，例如怀俄明州和佛蒙特州，则各有一个席位。

一个政党需要218个席位才能获得多数席位。

目前共和党控制着众议院，拥有218个席位，民主党拥有214个席位，另有一名独立议员与共和党议员共事。众议院目前有两个席位空缺，分别由两党各占一个。

新一届众议院将于2027年1月3日宣誓就职。

众议院竞相观看

每个选区选举自己的代表，赢得 218 个席位的政党将控制该党，因此在势均力敌的选区中，少数几个微弱的胜利就能决定多数席位。

贝尔特估计，大约35场众议院选举的结果可能决定多数席位归属。他预测，尽管共和党重新划分选区使其在另外9个选区占据优势，但民主党仍可能赢得约15个席位。

他说：“人们通常会投全党派的票，也就是说他们会投票给一个政党的所有候选人，所以这很可能也会影响到其他级别的选举。”

摇摆选区是指任何一方都有可能赢得的席位。下图重点列出了12场值得关注的关键选区。

参议院选举是如何进行的？

参议院是美国国会的上议院。

该委员会由 100 名成员组成，每个州选出两名成员（不考虑人口），由全州选举产生，任期六年，每两年约有三分之一的席位进行选举。

今年，除佛罗里达州和俄亥俄州将举行特别选举外，还将进行33个席位的常规选举。这两场特别选举将填补此前由马可·卢比奥和J·D·万斯留下的剩余两年任期。

在竞选的35个席位中，共和党占22席，民主党占13席。

目前共和党在参议院拥有53个席位，民主党拥有45个席位，另有两名独立人士与他们一起，使民主党阵营拥有47个席位。

民主党需要净增四个席位才能达到51席，从而掌控众议院。共和党只需50席即可继续控制，因为副总统万斯可以在票数持平时投出决定性的一票。

新一届参议院将于2027年1月3日宣誓就职。

值得关注的参议院选举

要想赢得参议院，民主党人必须保住他们正在捍卫的 13 个席位，并拿下共和党人把持的席位。

在佐治亚州，民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫将迎战共和党候选人迈克·柯林斯。密歇根州的空缺席位将在民主党候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德和共和党候选人迈克·罗杰斯之间展开角逐，而民主党候选人克里斯·帕帕斯将在新罕布什尔州的空缺席位上与共和党候选人约翰·苏努努展开较量。

共和党把持的席位为民主党在其他地区提供了机会。在缅因州，现任参议员苏珊·柯林斯将迎战民主党候选人特洛伊·杰克逊，后者接替了7月份退出初选的格雷厄姆·普拉特纳。北卡罗来纳州的空缺席位则由民主党候选人罗伊·库珀与共和党候选人迈克尔·沃特利展开角逐。

俄亥俄州、阿拉斯加州和爱荷华州也是竞争激烈的州，而随着民主党人寻求更多途径获得多数席位，德克萨斯州和堪萨斯州也越来越受到关注。

尽管民主党人赢得参议院多数席位的道路比赢得众议院多数席位的道路更加艰难，但选举分析人士表示，竞争激烈的选区数量不断增加，提高了他们赢得参议院多数席位的机会。

选举的关键议题有哪些？

生活成本是选民最关心的问题，不断上涨的汽油价格、住房成本和医疗保健费用挤压了家庭预算。

生育权仍然是一个重要议题，而移民问题和美国民主状况也是此次选举的议题之一。

美国和以色列对伊朗的战争以及人工智能（AI）和数据中心的快速发展，引发了人们对安全、就业和能源成本的进一步关注。

谁会参加中期选举投票？

据美国事实统计网（USAFacts）——一个收集政府数据的无党派组织——统计，约有 2.1 亿美国人登记投票，占 18 岁及以上美国居民的近 80%。

加利福尼亚州拥有最多的注册选民，达2320万，其次是德克萨斯州（1740万）和佛罗里达州（1360万）。这三个州的注册选民总数约占全美注册选民总数的26%。

怀俄明州（278,468）、佛蒙特州（459,455）和阿拉斯加州（603,310）人口最少。

不同群体计划如何投票

皮尤研究中心9月28日至10月4日进行的一项调查发现，44%的登记选民支持本选区的民主党候选人，而支持共和党候选人的比例为36%。5%的选民支持其他候选人，15%的选民表示不确定。

男性选民意见势均力敌，两党支持率均为 42%；而女性选民则以 45% 对 31% 的比例支持民主党。

下图显示了投票偏好如何因性别、种族、年龄、教育程度和党派归属而异。

美国大选投票率

中期选举的投票率低于总统选举。自1944年以来，中期选举的平均投票率约为42%，而总统选举的平均投票率则为58%。

如果共和党失去众议院控制权会发生什么？

民主党掌控的众议院可以阻止共和党提出的法案，并利用其委员会对特朗普政府展开调查。此外，众议院还将拥有弹劾总统的权力，而这项权力只有众议院才能行使。

控制参议院还将赋予民主党人对政府拨款的影响力。每项法案都需要参众两院批准，因此共和党控制的参议院无法单独通过任何法案。

贝尔特预计，民主党掌控的众议院将导致联邦支出方面出现更多对抗，包括每年为联邦机构提供资金所需的12项法案。这将增加政府进一步停摆的可能性，届时资金将耗尽，许多联邦服务也将停止。

贝尔特还认为，如果特朗普的国内议程在国会遭遇阻力，他可能会越来越重视外交政策。

“传统上，在任期最后两年面临分裂政府的总统几乎都会将重心完全转向外交政策。我认为特朗普的情况也会如此，”他说。

如果共和党失去参议院的控制权会发生什么？

民主党控制的参议院可能会阻挠立法，并否决总统提名的候选人，包括联邦法官、最高法院大法官、内阁官员和大使。

这使得参议院的控制权在未来两年之外也至关重要。联邦法官终身任职，其判决的影响远不止于总统任期。

如果众议院弹劾总统，参议院也将进行审判。罢免总统需要三分之二的多数票，而两党都不太可能达到这一门槛。

如果民主党赢得参众两院，是否就能完全控制国会？

不。特朗普仍将担任总统，并可以否决立法，而推翻否决需要参众两院各三分之二的票数。

参议院规则规定，大多数立法提案需要60票才能结束辩论，但一些预算案只需简单多数即可通过。因此，即使获得微弱多数，也不能保证某个政党的纲领能够获得通过。

民主党控制的众议院可以启动对特朗普的弹劾程序，他此前已被弹劾两次。然而，罢免总统需要参议院三分之二的多数票。

贝尔特认为再次弹劾的可能性不大。

“肯定会有调查，”他告诉半岛电视台，但他补充说，“不太可能再次弹劾，因为民主党人已经尝试过两次，而共和党人团结在特朗普周围。”

我们什么时候才能知道结果？

11 月 3 日美国东部时间下午 6 点（格林尼治标准时间 23:00）首批投票结束后，结果将开始陆续公布，但一些势均力敌的选情可能需要数天才能明朗。

选举之夜的结果只是初步结果。最终计票可能需要数天甚至数周时间，因为官员们需要清点邮寄选票、临时选票和其他未决选票，然后才能正式确认结果，而且各州的计票速度也不尽相同。

贝尔特说：“在某些州，这可能需要一周或更长时间。”

有些选情可能会持续更长时间。在佐治亚州，如果没有参议员候选人获得多数票，则将于12月1日举行第二轮投票。

贝尔特警告说，早期计票结果可能会误导人们对最终结果的判断。由于共和党人历来比民主党人更少选择邮寄投票，一些州的计票结果最初可能看起来更有利于共和党候选人，但随着后续选票的统计，共和党的领先优势可能会缩小甚至逆转。这种情况被称为“红色幻影”。而在那些先统计邮寄选票的州，情况则可能相反。

计票延迟或领先候选人发生变化本身并不表明存在选举舞弊。

这次投票将决定谁来起草法律、监督政府和控制联邦支出，从而决定特朗普剩余任期内的权力平衡。