The midterms look good for Democrats — but it’s too early to call a blue wave

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The United States may be within a week of momentous political change in midterm elections that could destroy the Republican Party’s monopoly on Washington and hand Democrats power to check President Donald Trump.

It’s far too early to size up any Democratic wave . There’s no guarantee there’ll even be one in an election season characterized by political volatility, redrawn districts , a gusher of outside cash — including hundreds of millions of dollars of GOP funding from Elon Musk — and ambiguity over who will turn up to vote.

Pundits may be increasingly bullish that Democrats will give Republicans a shellacking.

But at this point, what is the purpose of speculating?

More than 31 million early votes are already banked. And after years of apprehension over American democracy, voters will take part in a noble biennial ritual next Tuesday to deliver the only verdict that matters.

Still, almost everyone involved in politics expects Democrats to erase the Republican majority and win back the House, in a classic rebuke to a sitting president who seems to have forgotten he promised to cut the cost of living on the 2024 campaign trail.

But given Trump’s past triumphs, Democrats would be foolish to take a big night for granted. And the wrinkles of the US political system mean that polls showing a wide Democratic lead on the generic congressional ballot might translate into a more equivocal result than expected.

The 10 or so races that will meanwhile decide the Senate’s destiny are mostly neck-and-neck. This means Democrats could run close in all of them but still miss most of their targets. Disengaged GOP voters might also respond to Trump’s appeals for one last rodeo and turn out in higher-than-expected numbers.

And Democrats are trying to do something spectacular and rare on what was long considered a prohibitive Senate map this cycle. They need an unlikely winning streak through solid GOP territory to find the net gain of four seats needed for the majority.

But there are certain signs that may bode ill for the GOP.

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Many Republican lawmakers suddenly find themselves in closer races than they expected. And Trump’s campaign blitz is mostly focused on red America as he tries to rescue them. On Monday, for example, he held a rally in Mississippi , where he won by 23 points two years ago. Now, incumbent Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith is facing an unexpectedly strong Democratic challenge.

“You know, I’m here because Cindy’s doing great, but I just got to make sure. I can’t take a chance,” Trump said.

None of this proves that Democrats are poised for a victory lap. But it explains why Republicans, with one week to go, seem to be building a last line of defense.

The administration also seems to be preparing contingency plans. Its preemptive legal maneuvers in Alaska and California could foreshadow possible voting challenges . And they recall the president’s previous bid, in 2020, to deny voters’ right to choose their leaders after an election he lost.

There is one, however, undeniable indicator amid all the uncertainty: The gruesome political environment for Republicans only two years after Trump’s stunning comeback is not abating. If anything, it’s worsening by the day.

Voters are desperate for relief from high prices for groceries, gasoline and housing and still haven’t got the answers Trump promised in 2024. And with his war in Iran and his tariffs, the president seems to have handed voters a tangible demonstration that his decisions are making the cost of living crisis worse.

His bizarre antics are hardly helping. If an unpopular president had set out to design a strategy to hurt his own side, it might look little different from Trump’s approach. The billionaire in chief keeps insisting that the country is basking in a historic economic golden age. With gasoline averaging more than $4 a gallon, he celebrated oil company profits on Sunday.

And instead of empathizing with tight family budgets, he waxes on about trivialities at his increasingly out-of-touch rallies — like his new obsession with the rear ends of Ohio Sen. Jon Husted and rapper Nicki Minaj .

Election forecasters are almost universally predicting that Democrats will take the House of Representatives, despite polls showing they’ve yet to win back public trust. That would mean an onslaught of investigation against Trump and senior administration figures — and almost certainly two years of performative showdowns and legislative gridlock in Washington.

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Hakeem Jeffries, the probable speaker in any Democratic majority, was sufficiently confident last week to tell CNN’s Manu Raju that his party is “very likely” to regain control, saying that the “environment is clearly on our side.” Indeed, it would be a stunning surprise and a departure from history if the GOP clings on to a majority that has barely functioned in recent months. Incumbent presidents almost always get a bloody nose in midterm elections, and Trump’s approval ratings are particularly low.

Still, even as Democrats target more Republican seats, years of gerrymandering and the uncertainties introduced by Trump’s redistricting campaign this year mean that of the House’s 435 seats, perhaps only four dozen or so are considered truly competitive, even with a political storm lining up for the GOP.

So Democrats could pile up millions more votes but only win by a few seats.

The Senate is a toss-up.

Insiders in both parties think North Carolina may already effectively be in the Democratic column. And former Ohio Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is well-positioned to return to Washington. If networks make an early call for Democrats in a state where Trump romped home by 11 points two years ago, the rout could become reality.

Democrats also think they can unseat Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan. But then the road to a majority quickly gets bumpy. Republican Sen. Susan Collins , for instance, is threatening another act of political escapology in Maine.

And it’s measure of an extraordinary political year and the mountain that Democrats must climb that a CNN analysis last week deemed Texas — which last elected a Democratic senator in 1988 — the fifth most likely seat to change hands. Democratic nominee James Talarico has emerged as a rare political talent, and Trump did him a favor by muscling scandal-plagued state Attorney General Ken Paxton through the Republican primary. But the mirage of a statewide Democratic victory in the Lone Star sate has shimmered before. No one will believe it until it happens.

A true blue wave might bring Trump-country seats in Kansas and Iowa within reach for Democrats. And even in South Carolina, Sen. Darline Graham can’t be certain of keeping the seat she inherited from late brother Lindsey Graham.

But Democrats have their own worries. Their Senate dreams may be dashed if Michigan nominee Abdul El-Sayed fails to win a margin-of-error race to retain retiring Sen. Gary Peters’ seat in a contest that is testing the progressive movement’s potential in a purple state.

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All year, there have been signs that Trump’s 2024 is coalition is splintering. Multiple polls show he’s alienated Latino voters , who helped put him back in the White House, with high prices and a ferocious immigration purge. Polls now show that Democrats have reversed Trump’s gains among younger voters two years ago.

The limited insight that can be gained from early voting statistics also looks favorable for Democrats. The party’s voters seem more enthusiastic than their GOP counterparts in Texas, for example. CNN reported Tuesday that returns suggest turnout among the youngest Republican voters in Georgia, Iowa and North Carolina is well behind 2024. In several key states, Democrats make up a larger share of early voters than at the this point two years ago. All this is encouraging for the party. But Democrats could still fall short of Election Day expectations.

Conservative media is clinging to the hope that polls are underestimating Republican turnout, as has been the case several times in the Trump era. The president is beseeching GOP voters to pretend he’s on the ballot — even though Democrats also want a referendum on an unpopular president.

There’s one other possibility: that this time, pollsters might have failed to fully capture Democratic turnout. That’s how a potential narrow win could become a landslide.

Trump has always been a singular political figure. But if his unorthodox midterm strategy saves his party, he’ll have busted expectations yet again.

The president’s repeated attempts to spring an October surprise, however, seem to be failing. There’s no sign that his promise of $5,000 for every American adult if the GOP wins is changing the race — or that voters take it that seriously. His sanctions-busting diesel deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin put the US on the side of a ruthless tyrant with Ukraine’s blood on his hands, and may have done more political harm than good.

And the president has dived into the deepest gutter in politics by warning that El-Sayed, a Muslim, supports “terrorists” and would need to “go through a metal detector before he’s allowed to go into the Senate.” The president also backed an ad put out by Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy that cast doubt on alleged childhood abuse suffered by his opponent, Amy Acton.

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In 2016, this kind of searing MAGA rhetoric helped Trump to shatter the playbook. But Trump has always been more effective in elections as an insurgent planning a shakeup than an incumbent judged on his record.

Now, he just seems oblivious to the nation’s sour mood.

Most people think they know what’s going to happen.

But until next week, no one can know for sure.

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美国可能在一周内迎来意义重大的政治变革，中期选举可能会打破共和党对华盛顿的垄断，并赋予民主党制衡唐纳德·特朗普总统的权力。

现在就断言民主党会掀起什么浪潮还为时尚早。在这个政治动荡、选区重新划分、大量外部资金涌入（包括埃隆·马斯克向共和党提供的数亿美元资金）以及投票率不明朗的选举季，甚至连民主党浪潮是否会出现都无法保证。

评论员们可能越来越乐观地认为，民主党将给共和党带来一场惨败。

但到了这个地步，推测还有什么意义呢？

已有超过3100万张提前投票的选票投出。在经历了多年对美国民主的担忧之后，选民们将于下周二参与这项崇高的两年一度的仪式，做出唯一重要的决定。

尽管如此，几乎所有参与政治的人都期望民主党人能够消除共和党的多数席位，重新夺回众议院的控制权，这无疑是对现任总统的一次经典反驳，这位总统似乎已经忘记了他在 2024 年竞选期间承诺要降低生活成本。

但鉴于特朗普过去的辉煌战绩，民主党人若想当然地认为今晚会大获全胜，那就太愚蠢了。而且，美国政治体制的复杂性意味着，民调显示民主党在国会普选中大幅领先，最终结果可能比预期更加扑朔迷离。

与此同时，决定参议院最终归属的十余场选战大多势均力敌。这意味着民主党人即便在所有选战中都与对手接近，也可能错失大部分目标。此外，一些原本对选举漠不关心的共和党选民或许会响应特朗普的号召，在最后时刻重返投票站，投票率可能超出预期。

民主党人正试图在本届选举周期中，在长期以来被认为难以逾越的参议院选区地图上，创造一项惊人的、罕见的成就。他们需要在共和党的传统票仓中取得一波不太可能的连胜，才能净增四个席位，从而获得多数席位。

但有一些迹象可能对共和党不利。

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许多共和党议员突然发现自己陷入了比预期更为激烈的选战。特朗普的竞选攻势主要集中在传统共和党州，试图挽救这些州的选情。例如，周一，他在密西西比州举行了一场竞选集会，两年前他曾以23个百分点的优势赢得该州。如今，现任共和党参议员辛迪·海德-史密斯正面临着来自民主党的强劲挑战。

“你知道，我来这里是因为辛迪现在很好，但我还是得确认一下。我不能冒险，”特朗普说。

这一切并不能证明民主党人已经准备好庆祝胜利。但这解释了为什么共和党人在距离大选仅剩一周之际，似乎正在构筑最后一道防线。

政府似乎也在制定应急预案。其在阿拉斯加和加利福尼亚采取的先发制人的法律行动，可能预示着未来可能出现选举争议。这不禁让人想起总统在2020年败选后，试图剥夺选民选择领导人的权利。

然而，在所有这些不确定性中，有一个不容置疑的迹象：特朗普惊人逆转仅仅两年后，共和党人所处的严峻政治环境并未缓解。恰恰相反，情况还在日益恶化。

选民们迫切希望缓解食品、汽油和住房价格高企的问题，但至今仍未得到特朗普在2024年承诺的答案。而他发动的伊朗战争和加征关税似乎已经向选民们切实证明，他的决策正在加剧生活成本危机。

他那些古怪的举动无济于事。如果一位不受欢迎的总统想要制定一项损害自己阵营的策略，其手段或许与特朗普的做法并无太大差别。这位亿万富翁总统不断坚称，美国正处于历史性的经济黄金时代。周日，在汽油均价超过每加仑4美元的情况下，他竟然还在庆祝石油公司的利润增长。

他非但没有体谅家庭预算紧张的处境，反而在他越来越脱离实际的集会上大谈琐事——比如他对俄亥俄州参议员乔恩·赫斯特和说唱歌手妮琪·米娜的臀部产生了新的迷恋。

尽管民调显示民主党尚未赢回公众信任，但几乎所有选举预测机构都预测民主党将夺回众议院的控制权。这意味着特朗普及其政府高层将面临铺天盖地的调查，而且几乎可以肯定的是，华盛顿将陷入长达两年的作秀式对峙和立法僵局。

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如果民主党赢得多数席位，哈基姆·杰弗里斯很可能成为众议院议长。上周，他自信地告诉CNN的马努·拉朱，民主党“极有可能”重新掌控众议院，并表示“形势显然对我们有利”。的确，如果共和党能够保住近几个月来几乎毫无作为的多数席位，那将是一个令人震惊的意外，也是对历史的颠覆。现任总统几乎总是在中期选举中遭遇惨败，而特朗普的支持率尤其低迷。

尽管民主党人将目标瞄准了更多共和党席位，但多年的选区划分不公以及特朗普今年重新划分选区运动带来的不确定性意味着，众议院的 435 个席位中，可能只有大约 48 个被认为是真正具有竞争力的，即使共和党正面临一场政治风暴。

所以，民主党人可能多获得数百万张选票，但最终可能只以几个席位的优势获胜。

参议院的选情难分伯仲。

两党内部人士都认为北卡罗来纳州实际上可能已经倒向民主党。前俄亥俄州民主党参议员谢罗德·布朗也极有可能重返华盛顿。如果各大媒体过早宣布民主党在该州获胜（两年前特朗普在该州以11个百分点的优势大胜），那么民主党大获全胜的局面很可能成为现实。

民主党人也认为他们可以拿下阿拉斯加州参议员丹·沙利文的席位。但之后，通往多数席位的道路很快就会变得崎岖不平。例如，共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯正威胁要在缅因州再次上演政治逃亡戏码。

而这正体现了今年非同寻常的政治局势以及民主党人必须攀登的重重高峰。上周，CNN的一份分析报告指出，德克萨斯州——该州上次选出民主党参议员还是在1988年——是第五个最有可能易主的席位。民主党候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科展现出了罕见的政治天赋，而特朗普也帮了他一把，强行让深陷丑闻的州检察长肯·帕克斯顿在共和党初选中胜出。但民主党在“孤星之州”德克萨斯州赢得全州胜利的希望并非首次出现。不到真正实现，谁也不会相信。

如果民主党真的掀起“蓝色浪潮”，堪萨斯州和爱荷华州这些特朗普的传统票仓或许就有可能被民主党拿下。即使在南卡罗来纳州，参议员达琳·格雷厄姆也无法确定能否保住她从已故哥哥林赛·格雷厄姆那里继承的席位。

但民主党人也有自己的担忧。如果密歇根州候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德在与即将退休的参议员加里·彼得斯的选战中，以微弱优势落败，无法保住席位，那么他们的参议院梦想可能就此破灭。这场选举将检验进步运动在这个摇摆州的潜力。

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一年来，种种迹象表明特朗普2024年的竞选联盟正在瓦解。多项民调显示，高物价和残酷的移民政策疏远了曾助他重返白宫的拉丁裔选民。民调还显示，民主党已经扭转了两年前特朗普在年轻选民中取得的优势。

从提前投票统计数据中获得的有限信息似乎对民主党有利。例如，在德克萨斯州，民主党选民的热情似乎高于共和党选民。CNN周二报道称，佐治亚州、爱荷华州和北卡罗来纳州最年轻的共和党选民的投票率远低于2024年的水平。在几个关键州，民主党提前投票选民的比例比两年前同期更高。所有这些都对民主党来说是个好消息。但民主党最终的得票率仍有可能低于预期。

保守派媒体仍然抱有侥幸心理，认为民调低估了共和党的投票率，这种情况在特朗普时代已经发生过好几次了。总统恳求共和党选民假装他也会参选——尽管民主党人也希望就一位不受欢迎的总统进行全民公投。

还有一种可能性：这次民调机构可能未能准确反映民主党的投票率。这样一来，原本可能只是小胜一场的选举结果，最终却可能演变成压倒性胜利。

特朗普一直是一位特立独行的政治人物。但如果他非传统的选举策略能够挽救他的政党，他将再次打破人们的预期。

然而，总统屡次试图在十月制造“惊喜”的努力似乎都以失败告终。没有任何迹象表明，他承诺如果共和党赢得大选，就向每位美国成年人发放5000美元的政策能够改变选情——或者说，选民们对此有多重视。他与俄罗斯总统普京达成的违反制裁的柴油协议，使美国站在了这位双手沾满乌克兰鲜血的残暴独裁者一边，而且可能弊大于利。

总统此举可谓是政治史上最卑劣的行径，他警告说，身为穆斯林的埃尔-赛义德支持“恐怖分子”，并且“在进入参议院之前需要通过金属探测器”。此外，总统还支持俄亥俄州州长候选人维韦克·拉马斯瓦米发布的一则广告，该广告质疑其对手艾米·阿克顿所称的童年虐待经历。

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2016年，这种激烈的“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）言论帮助特朗普打破了既定的竞选策略。但与以政绩论英雄的现任总统相比，特朗普在选举中始终以挑战者的身份，策划变革，从而取得更大的成功。

现在，他似乎对全国低落的情绪浑然不觉。

大多数人认为自己知道将会发生什么。

但不到下周，谁也无法确定。