Workers are getting a shrinking slice of America’s economic pie

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The US economy continues to grow at a relatively healthy pace, but American workers aren’t fully reaping the financial rewards.

In fact, American workers’ piece of the economic pie is shrinking. By one official measure, their slice is the smallest in almost 80 years.

The labor share of income, which is the amount of economic output paid to workers as compensation, fell to 52.8% earlier this year, Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows. That’s the lowest-ever level, according to BLS records that go back to 1947.

“It’s really telling you that workers have less and less power in this technology age and certainly in the AI age,” said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “The rewards, the financial gains, are mainly going to shareholders, to the owners of the capital and less and less to your typical W-2 worker.”

The labor share of income, as measured by the BLS, has been on a bumpy decline since the rise of personal computing more than a quarter-century ago.

But this year, that drop-off was more pronounced – a likely reflection of the massive investment and rapid adoption of artificial intelligence technologies as well as a sign of what could come, Long said.

“This is the chart that keeps me up at night,” she said. “I think people in the AI age will still have jobs, but they are not going to reap many of the financial benefits.”

Given recent trends and the expected effects of AI, it’s possible that the BLS measure could fall below 50% by the end of the decade, noted Michael Feroli, chief US economist at JPMorgan.

Economic data is rarely clean-cut and, by some measurements, the outlook isn’t as dire as the BLS dataset seems – especially when considering factors such as depreciation, taxes, equity compensation, and the rise of pass-through corporations.

Goldman Sachs economist Abhay Duggirala estimated that 40% of the 7.5-percentage-point drop in the labor share of income since the 1990s can be attributed to three factors:

First, tax law changes that prompted more businesses to organize as pass-through entities resulted in wages being recharacterized as tax-advantaged business profits.

Second, greater reliance upon short-lived goods like computers and software has resulted in higher rates of depreciation. Those and taxes are not subtracted out of gross measurements of economic activity.

Third, the BLS measure understates some forms of incentive and equity-based pay.

The remaining 60% of that increase is a result of higher markups, a greater industry concentration, the rise of automation and a decline in labor’s bargaining power, Duggirala wrote in a research note last month.

“If these structural trends continue, for example because AI is likely to automate many additional tasks, the labor share will likely continue to decline,” he wrote.

A separate tabulation from the Tax Foundation, which excluded components such as depreciation and taxes, found that the labor share of income remains within historical levels.

Workers earn about half of every dollar of gross income; however, much of what is counted in gross income does not accrue to anyone, said Richard DiSalvo, senior economist at the Tax Foundation.

A more appropriate method is to use the share of net income accruing to capital, he said. By those measurements, capital’s share is between 22.6% and 31.7%, not half.

“While we’re not disagreeing with the fact that [the labor share] has declined in the last 20 years, what we’re disagreeing with is it hasn’t marched off the charts like it shows in the BLS data,” he said.

Still, any decline in labor’s share of income is worth highlighting, especially in the context of a technological revolution, said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon.

“The economy is continuing to grow at a relatively robust pace, but not everybody is sharing that growth equally,” he said.

Corporations’ profit margins (particularly those tied to the AI revolution) are hitting historical highs; and, at the same time, business leaders’ ongoing cost-control efforts and workers’ declining rates of bargaining power have further capped the labor income share, Daco said.

“It’s a slow-moving phenomenon but one that has real consequences in terms of consumer spending and consumer sentiment,” he said.

For example, a return to a 56% labor share in an economy generating $23.6 trillion in inflation-adjusted gross domestic income would translate to an increase of $3,900 per household, Daco said. A return to the early 2000s levels near 62% would imply a $14,400-per-household boost, he added.

The implications for a further declining labor share are real, said Navy Federal Credit Union’s economist Long, noting the potential for greater dissatisfaction among households.

“It’s a pretty dramatic change, and people feel that,” she said. “It’s wrapped up in this rise of populism; it’s wrapped up in the affordability concerns; it’s wrapped up in the top 1% getting further and further away from everybody else.”

Consumer sentiment has been circling the drain for much of this year as a war-driven spike in gas prices and concerns about AI’s potential negative effects on the labor market have further compounded affordability concerns.

Inflation, which has been elevated for more than five years, has heated up in recent months. That prompted the Federal Reserve to raise rates for the first time in three years, making borrowed money even more costly.

Fed policymakers meet this week and are expected to hold rates steady.

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美国经济继续以相对健康的速度增长，但美国工人并没有充分享受到经济上的回报。

事实上，美国工人在经济蛋糕中所占的份额正在缩小。根据一项官方数据，他们的份额是近80年来最低的。

美国劳工统计局的数据显示，今年早些时候，劳动收入占总收入的比例（即支付给劳动者的经济产出报酬）降至52.8%。根据劳工统计局自1947年有记录以来的数据，这是历史最低水平。

“这实际上表明，在科技时代，尤其是在人工智能时代，劳动者的权力越来越小，”海军联邦信贷联盟首席经济学家希瑟·朗表示。“回报和经济收益主要流向了股东，流向了资本所有者，而普通W-2员工所获得的利益却越来越少。”

根据美国劳工统计局 (BLS) 的测量结果，自二十五年前个人电脑兴起以来，劳动收入份额一直处于波动下降的趋势。

但朗表示，今年的下降趋势更加明显——这很可能反映了人工智能技术的大规模投资和快速应用，同时也预示着未来可能的发展趋势。

“这张图表让我夜不能寐，”她说。“我认为人工智能时代人们仍然会有工作，但他们不会获得太多经济利益。”

摩根大通首席美国经济学家迈克尔·费罗利指出，鉴于近期的趋势和人工智能的预期影响，到本十年末，美国劳工统计局的这项指标可能会降至 50% 以下。

经济数据很少是一目了然的，而且从某些衡量标准来看，前景并不像美国劳工统计局的数据集看起来那么糟糕——尤其是在考虑到折旧、税收、股权激励和转嫁型公司兴起等因素时。

高盛经济学家阿拜·杜吉拉拉估计，自 20 世纪 90 年代以来劳动收入份额下降 7.5 个百分点，其中 40% 可归因于以下三个因素：

首先，税法改革促使更多企业以转嫁实体的形式组织起来，导致工资被重新定性为享有税收优惠的商业利润。

其次，对计算机和软件等短期商品的依赖性增强，导致折旧率上升。这些折旧和税收并未从经济活动的总体衡量指标中扣除。

第三，美国劳工统计局的衡量标准低估了某些形式的激励性薪酬和基于股权的薪酬。

杜吉拉拉在上个月的一份研究报告中写道，剩余的 60% 的增长是由于更高的加价、更高的行业集中度、自动化程度的提高以及劳动力议价能力的下降造成的。

他写道：“如果这些结构性趋势继续下去，例如，由于人工智能可能会自动化许多其他任务，劳动份额可能会继续下降。”

税务基金会的另一项统计（不包括折旧和税收等项目）发现，劳动收入份额仍处于历史水平。

税务基金会高级经济学家理查德·迪萨尔沃表示，劳动者大约能获得总收入的一半；然而，计入总收入的大部分实际上并没有落入任何人手中。

他表示，更合适的方法是使用归属于资本的净利润份额。按此计算，资本份额在22.6%至31.7%之间，而不是一半。

他说：“虽然我们并不否认过去 20 年里（劳动份额）有所下降，但我们不同意的是，它并没有像美国劳工统计局的数据所显示的那样大幅下降。”

安永-帕特农首席经济学家格雷戈里·达科表示，尽管如此，劳动收入份额的任何下降都值得关注，尤其是在技术革命的背景下。

他说：“经济正以相对强劲的速度继续增长，但并非每个人都平等地分享了这种增长。”

Daco表示，企业的利润率（尤其是与人工智能革命相关的利润率）正达到历史新高；与此同时，企业领导人持续的成本控制努力和工人议价能力的下降进一步限制了劳动收入份额。

“这是一个缓慢发展的现象，但它对消费者支出和消费者情绪产生了真正的影响，”他说。

例如，达科表示，如果一个经济体的经通胀调整后的国内生产总值达到23.6万亿美元，那么劳动份额恢复到56%，将意味着每个家庭收入增加3900美元。他还补充说，如果劳动份额恢复到2000年代初期的水平，接近62%，则意味着每个家庭收入将增加14400美元。

海军联邦信贷联盟的经济学家朗表示，劳动份额进一步下降的影响是真实存在的，并指出这可能会导致家庭更加不满。

“这是一个相当剧烈的变化，人们都能感受到，”她说。“这与民粹主义的兴起息息相关；与人们对生活成本的担忧息息相关；也与最富有的1%人群与其他人之间的差距越来越大息息相关。”

今年以来，消费者信心持续低迷，战争导致汽油价格飙升，以及人们对人工智能可能对劳动力市场产生负面影响的担忧，进一步加剧了人们对购房能力的担忧。

通胀已持续五年多居高不下，近几个月来更是愈演愈烈。这促使美联储三年来首次加息，使得借贷成本进一步上升。

美联储决策者本周将召开会议，预计将维持利率不变。