Israel just voted in a critical election. But the ultimate outcome will take time to become clear

Israel’s elections produced no clear winner Tuesday night, exit polls showed, with neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his main rival Gadi Eisenkot within reach of the 61 seats needed for a governing majority in the 120-seat parliament, the Knesset.

The three main Israeli TV Channels – 11, 12 and 13 – projected Netanyahu’s bloc at 51-52 seats, marking a steep drop from the 68-seat coalition he led in the outgoing Knesset. His Likud party is still projected to be the largest party, with 25-27 seats.

But Israeli politics is all about building coalitions – not being the biggest party – and Netanyahu’s path to staying in power is now unclear.

The opposition also has a complicated route to government.

Parties opposed to Netanyahu won a clear-cut majority of the vote, garnering 68-70 seats in the exit polls. But they are fractured and divided between right, left and center, and between Jewish and Arab parties.

Eisenkot’s Yashar party is the largest in the opposition, projected to win 21-23 seats, but his path to power runs through cooperation with the Arab parties, a scenario not all the party leaders in the opposition are willing to accept.

One outlier stood out with good news for Netanyahu and his bloc. The pro-Netanyahu Channel 14 exit polls projected the bloc with 60 seats total and Likud with 30 on its own.

However, as exit polls are only projections, the picture may shift as the actual votes are tallied overnight. The final count is expected to take a few days.

As exit polls showed Netanyahu and Eisenkot falling short of a majority, both leaders addressed supporters, trying to claim the night and shape a narrative of victory.

Netanyahu, speaking at the Likud headquarters in Jerusalem, thanked voters for what he called a renewed vote of confidence. But he stopped short of declaring outright victory.

“Two things became clear tonight: Likud is the largest party in Israel. There is no dispute about that,” he said. “And the second thing is that the right-wing bloc has a clear, decisive majority among the Zionist and Jewish public.”

“We must establish a strong national right-wing government,” Netanyahu continued. “Israel must not be endangered with a government that relies on anti-Zionist Arab parties that oppose our very existence, that see Hamas as a charity organization, that calls our soldiers war criminals.”

Eisenkot also did not declare victory as he spoke at his election headquarters in Tel Aviv. But he did say that Israel voted against Netanyahu.

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“We have made history! The public has voted for change. The coalition of failure has lost the people’s trust,” he said. “The Israeli public has voted against Netanyahu continuing to serve as prime minister of Israel.”

Eisenkot, who was once Israel’s top general and lost a son fighting in Gaza , said that “a worthy leader would accept the people’s vote of no confidence and announce his retirement from political life today.”

The elections saw the highest overall voter turnout since 1999 – at least 77.7%. The surge was especially notable among the country’s Arab population, which has traditionally voted at lower rates than Jewish Israelis. The Arab parties said turnout exceeded 75%. The two parties – the Joint List and Raam – are projected at 17-19 seats, in their strongest showing in history.

Palestinian citizens of Israel – roughly 20 percent of Israel’s population – were driven by an urgent desire to topple Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition, which is largely dominated by hardline ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir. Ben-Gvir’s tenure as national security minister has included a dramatic rise in crime and murder rates in Arab communities.

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“We have proven that we are a political force that cannot be ignored, and that it is impossible to build a future here without our voice”, said Yousef Jabareen, chairman of the Joint List, calling it a “historic day.” Mansour Abbas, chairman of the Raam list, told i24news that the “record-breaking electoral achievement is all due to Ben-Gvir and Smotrich and the entire government that neglected the Israeli Arab community.”

The Arab turnout may have blocked Netanyahu from a majority, but it also complicates Eisenkot’s attempts to replace him. Eisenkot has set conditions for any partner to join his government, including recognizing Israel as a Jewish state and recognizing Hamas as a terrorist organization that must be dismantled, terms most Arab lawmakers are unlikely to accept.

Moreover, two of his opposition allies – Avigdor Liberman and Naftali Bennett – have ruled out forming a government with the Arab parties altogether.

That makes Eisenkot’s path to victory unclear.

Exit polls are merely projections, and the picture may shift as actual votes are counted and finalized, which usually takes a matter of days.

Once results are certified, the electoral process moves to Israel’s President Isaac Herzog. In a series of meetings in Jerusalem, Herzog will open a round of consultations in which each elected party recommends its choice for prime minister.

Based on these recommendations, the president then tasks one candidate to try and form a government. That is not necessarily the leader of the largest party, but rather whoever he thinks is most likely to assemble a 61-seat majority based on his own discretion.

Winning is not only about votes and seats, but also about building – and maintaining – a viable coalition.

Who is Gadi Eisenkot, Netanyahu’s main challenger in Israel’s elections?

Herzog’s first decision will be does he ask Netanyahu or Eisenkot to form a government.

Netanyahu has the largest party, but with the Arab parties’ support, Eisenkot is likely to have more recommendations. After being assigned the mandate, one of the two will begin weeks of political bargaining over cabinet posts, budget priorities and policy commitments.

The assigned candidate has a 28-day deadline – and likely a 14-day extension – to form a government. If he fails, the president passes the mandate to another candidate for another four weeks. If that fails as well, the Knesset gets a short window to put forward another candidate. If it cannot, the country automatically goes to another round of elections.

With neither side holding a clear majority, deadlock appears to be a plausible outcome.

Herzog may try to steer Netanyahu and Eisenkot to form a unity government between the two largest parties, but it’s unclear that such an arrangement is even possible. Netanyahu has a long history of burning politicians with whom he has reached similar agreements, and Eisenkot has ruled out sitting with Netanyahu.

周二晚的以色列大选出口民调显示，没有产生明确的获胜者，总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡和他的主要竞争对手加迪·艾森科特都未能获得在拥有 120 个席位的议会（以色列议会）中获得执政多数所需的 61 个席位。

以色列三大电视台——11频道、12频道和13频道——预测内塔尼亚胡领导的联盟将获得51至52个席位，较他在上届议会领导的68席联盟大幅下滑。他的利库德集团预计仍将是最大党，获得25至27个席位。

但以色列政治的本质在于建立联盟，而不是成为最大的政党，内塔尼亚胡能否继续掌权目前尚不明朗。

反对派通往执政之路也十分复杂。

反对内塔尼亚胡的政党赢得了绝对多数选票，出口民调显示他们获得了68至70个席位。但这些政党内部存在分歧，分为右翼、左翼和中间派，以及犹太政党和阿拉伯政党。

艾森科特的亚沙尔党是反对派中最大的政党，预计将赢得 21 至 23 个席位，但他的执政之路是通过与阿拉伯政党合作来实现的，而并非所有反对派政党领导人都愿意接受这种情况。

一项例外结果对内塔尼亚胡及其联盟来说是个好消息。支持内塔尼亚胡的第14频道出口民调预测，该联盟将赢得60个席位，而利库德集团自身将获得30个席位。

然而，由于出口民调只是预测，随着实际选票在夜间统计完毕，结果可能会发生变化。最终计票预计需要几天时间。

由于出口民调显示内塔尼亚胡和艾森科特未能获得多数席位，两位领导人都向支持者发表了讲话，试图掌控当晚的局势并塑造胜利的叙事。

内塔尼亚胡在耶路撒冷利库德集团总部发表讲话，感谢选民们给予他所谓的“再次信任投票”。但他并未直接宣布自己获胜。

“今晚有两件事很清楚：利库德集团是以色列最大的政党，这一点毋庸置疑，”他说。“第二件事是，右翼阵营在犹太复国主义者和犹太公众中拥有明显的、决定性的多数席位。”

内塔尼亚胡继续说道：“我们必须建立一个强大的民族右翼政府。以色列绝不能让一个依赖反犹太复国主义阿拉伯政党的政府处于危险之中，这些政党反对我们的存在，把哈马斯视为慈善组织，称我们的士兵为战争罪犯。”

艾森科特在特拉维夫的竞选总部发表讲话时，也没有宣布胜选。但他确实表示，以色列投票反对内塔尼亚胡。

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“我们创造了历史！民众投票支持变革。失败的联盟失去了人民的信任，”他说。“以色列民众投票反对内塔尼亚胡继续担任以色列总理。”

曾任以色列最高将领、并在加沙失去儿子的艾森科特表示，“一位称职的领导人会接受人民的不信任投票，并于今日宣布退出政坛。”

此次选举的总体投票率创下1999年以来的最高纪录，至少达到77.7%。阿拉伯裔选民的投票率激增尤为显著，他们历来投票率低于犹太裔以色列人。阿拉伯政党表示，投票率超过75%。联合名单党和拉姆党预计将赢得17至19个席位，这将是他们历史上表现最好的一次。

以色列境内的巴勒斯坦公民——约占以色列人口的20%——迫切希望推翻内塔尼亚胡的右翼联盟，该联盟主要由强硬派部长贝扎莱尔·斯莫特里奇和伊塔马尔·本-格维尔主导。本-格维尔担任国家安全部长期间，阿拉伯社区的犯罪率和谋杀率急剧上升。

Ahmad Gharabli/AFP via Getty Images

“我们已经证明，我们是一股不可忽视的政治力量，没有我们的声音，就不可能在这里建设未来，”联合名单主席优素福·贾巴林称这一天为“历史性的一天”。拉姆名单主席曼苏尔·阿巴斯告诉i24新闻，这一“破纪录的选举成就完全归功于本-格维尔、斯莫特里奇以及整个忽视以色列阿拉伯社区的政府”。

阿拉伯选民的积极投票或许阻碍了内塔尼亚胡获得多数席位，但也使艾森科特取代他的努力变得更加复杂。艾森科特为任何加入其政府的伙伴设定了条件，包括承认以色列是犹太国家，并承认哈马斯是必须解散的恐怖组织，而大多数阿拉伯议员不太可能接受这些条件。

此外，他的两位反对派盟友——阿维格多·利伯曼和纳夫塔利·贝内特——已经完全排除了与阿拉伯政党组建政府的可能性。

这使得艾森科特的获胜之路变得不明朗。

出口民调只是预测，随着实际选票的统计和最终确定，情况可能会发生变化，而这通常需要几天时间。

一旦选举结果得到认证，选举进程将交由以色列总统伊萨克·赫尔佐格掌控。赫尔佐格将在耶路撒冷举行一系列会议，启动新一轮磋商，各当选政党将在磋商中推荐各自的总理人选。

根据这些建议，总统会指定一名候选人尝试组建政府。这个人不一定是最大党的领袖，而是总统根据自身判断认为最有可能组建获得61个席位多数的政府的人选。

胜利不仅仅关乎选票和席位，还关乎建立和维持一个可行的联盟。

加迪·艾森科特是谁？他是以色列大选中内塔尼亚胡的主要挑战者。

赫尔佐格面临的第一个决定是，他是否邀请内塔尼亚胡或艾森科特组建政府。

内塔尼亚胡拥有最大的政党，但由于得到了阿拉伯政党的支持，艾森科特可能会提出更多建议。两人中将有一人获得任命后，将就内阁职位、预算优先事项和政策承诺展开数周的政治博弈。

指定的候选人有28天的期限（很可能获得14天的延期）组建政府。如果他组阁失败，总统会将组阁授权交给另一位候选人，期限为四周。如果再次失败，议会将获得短暂的机会推选另一位候选人。如果议会也无法推选出新的候选人，国家将自动进行新一轮选举。

由于双方均未获得绝对多数席位，僵局似乎是一个可能的结果。

赫尔佐格或许会试图促成内塔尼亚胡和艾森科特组建由两大政党组成的联合政府，但这种安排是否可行尚不明朗。内塔尼亚胡素来有撕毁与他达成类似协议的政治人物的记录，而艾森科特也已明确表示不会与内塔尼亚胡共事。