Why Trump’s latest election warning is impossible to ignore

Kent Nishimura/AFP/Getty Images

When President Donald Trump signals he might not accept the result of an election, he’s worth taking seriously.

By now, in his fifth national election as Republican Party leader, Trump has an established MO. He spends months whipping up doubts about the voting system and the integrity of election officials while suggesting Democrats may cheat.

Then, he weaponizes the vortex of mistrust he created and implies before votes are counted that the election may not be fair.

A week from Election Day, it feels more like Groundhog Day.

Trump was asked Tuesday if he will accept the midterm election results, which could mean a tough night for the GOP , “whatever happens.”

This would hardly be a question for another other modern president. But Trump’s reply came with a caveat made all the more ominous by his past conduct: “I will, if they are honest elections, yeah.”

There’s a lot to be worried about here, beyond the equivocation of his answer. That’s because Trump effectively presents himself as the sole referee of the probity of an election. When he lost the presidential election in 2020, he falsely claimed fraud, despite multiple Republican officials, courts and even his own Justice Department proving there were no such irregularities.

Patrick T. Fallon/AFP/Getty Images

Trump’s latest hedging over an election came in a threatening context. He’s spent much of this year trying to skew the midterms in the GOP’s favor by pushing a midterm gerrymandering effort in Texas and other states and by unsuccessfully demanding Congress pass a voter registration and ID law that critics say would disenfranchise millions of citizens.

And he recently ordered the Justice Department to sue to block certification of Alaska’s US Senate election if Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan loses, even though the Constitution grants a president no power to administer elections.

Trump insists that a separate candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan could confuse voters and that his candidacy is a Democratic conspiracy. Alaska’s Supreme Court has ruled the second Sullivan can legally run in the election.

In another preemptive strike, the DOJ on Friday ordered California to identify suspected noncitizens on voter rolls and set aside their mail-in ballots — warning that officials who knowingly count noncitizens’ ballots could face criminal liability.

A federal appeals court blocked that DOJ gambit .

In Alaska, Democratic challenger Mary Peltola has asked a judge to strike down the DOJ move before Election Day. But the administration’s maneuvering raises the possibility of a post-election showdown. And in contrast with 2020, when then-Attorney General Bill Barr rebuffed Trump’s accusations of expansive electoral fraud, the department seems less likely to contradict him this time.

The scars of one of the darkest days in modern American history — January 6, 2021 — mean that Trump’s latest election maneuvering is particularly loaded.

Months before MAGA supporters smashed their way into the US Capitol, some beating up police officers, Trump had been poisoning their confidence in the 2020 election with remarkably similar language to that he used on Tuesday.

“I hope it’s going to be a fair election. If it’s a fair election … I am 100% on board,” Trump said in his first presidential debate against Joe Biden in September 2020. “But if I see tens of thousands of ballots being manipulated, I can’t go along with that.”

Four years later, when Trump was asked by Dana Bash at a CNN presidential debate whether he would accept the result of the election regardless of who won, he replied: “If it’s a fair and legal and good election — absolutely.”

Trump did not dispute the results in 2024. The reason is obvious: He won. Four years earlier he’d lost.

Trump’s serial election denialism in the absence of any widespread US election fraud raises the question of why he, alone among presidents, can’t accept the democratic reality that sometimes you lose elections.

One answer is that Trump has given plentiful evidence that he cares more about power than the principle that voters get to pick their leaders.

Another is that Trump has built a personal brand as one of life’s ultimate winners. This brittle veneer is incompatible with any perception of being a loser — one reason he still can’t admit he lost to Biden in 2020.

But what might he try to do if the election goes badly for Republicans this time?

The DOJ’s intervention in Alaska implies a post-election legal campaign if Peltola tallies one of the four net gains that Democrats need for a Senate majority. Similar moves elsewhere cannot be ruled out.

Republican elected officials and attorneys general in key states can expect to come under withering pressure from Trump, if his failed bid to force GOP officeholders in Georgia to “find” votes in the 2020 election is any guide. There’s now no Barr equivalent to debunk potential claims of fraud. Current Attorney General Todd Blanche said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” in August that he could not pledge the department would always act independently of Trump.

On Sunday, Blanche said on CNN’s “State of the Union” the administration was doing nothing “improper” in Alaska and simply wanted to ensure the rightful person wins, saying, “President Trump is not trying to take over a state election in any way, shape, or form.”

But he vehemently rejected the idea that the president’s attempt to overturn the 2020 election justified any concerns about his remarks smearing the 2026 midterms: “It’s not a conversation about January 6.”

In 2020, America’s legal and constitutional guardrails held firm. But Trump is now less encumbered by aides ready to temper his most antidemocratic instincts.

Still, Democrats and state officials of both parties who oversee elections have had months to prepare for potential threats from White House officials and local MAGA operatives.

If Democrats win big, Trump may have less latitude to interfere. If the result is closer, it is possible that prolonged legal battles could deadlock the fate of the Senate for weeks. Hakeem Jeffries, the likely House speaker if Democrats win a majority, last week told CNN’s Manu Raju he assumed Republicans would “try to come up with any diabolical scheme to prevent November 3rd from being a free and fair election.”

And it’s not unprecedented for the seating of a new senator to be challenged, according to lawyer and elections expert Ben Ginsberg. “It is done really rarely. It rips apart the fabric of the institution of the Senate when it happens,” Ginsberg said on CNN’s special election coverage on Sunday.

Trump could have powerful incentives to challenge unfavorable election results, since Democrats are already planning a relentless campaign of investigations into the White House, the Cabinet and the Trump family’s financial dealings.

But would a lame-duck president with an approval rating in the 30s who’d just lost a major national election have the political juice to pull it off?

And Trump’s self-absorbed campaign posture has indicated little concern for vulnerable Republicans. He may simply care less when his name isn’t on the ballot.

The president seemed Tuesday to be at least contemplating a period of bitter cohabitation with a Democratic Congress. “Look, I have a strong veto. I hope that won’t be the case, but if it is, that has happened before with many presidents,” he said.

But Trump often follows through on his threats. And his latest electoral caveating shows he still thinks an election he loses must be unfair.

So it’s a good idea to take him at his word.

Kent Nishimura/AFP/Getty Images

当唐纳德·特朗普总统暗示他可能不会接受选举结果时，我们就应该认真对待他。

如今，作为共和党领袖，特朗普已第五次参与全国大选，他的惯用伎俩也已形成。他会花费数月时间煽动民众对投票制度和选举官员诚信的质疑，同时暗示民主党人可能作弊。

然后，他利用自己制造的不信任漩涡，在计票之前暗示选举可能不公平。

距离选举日还有一周，感觉就像在重复过同一天。

周二，有人问特朗普是否会接受中期选举结果，这可能意味着共和党将面临一个艰难的夜晚，“无论结果如何”。

对于其他任何一位现代总统来说，这几乎都不是一个需要提出的问题。但特朗普的回答却带有一个附加条件，鉴于他过去的所作所为，这个条件显得更加不祥：“如果选举公正，我会的。”

除了他含糊其辞的回答之外，这里还有很多令人担忧的地方。这是因为特朗普实际上把自己塑造成了选举公正性的唯一仲裁者。2020年总统大选他败选后，尽管多位共和党官员、法院甚至他自己的司法部都证明不存在任何违规行为，他仍然谎称选举存在舞弊。

Patrick T. Fallon/法新社/盖蒂图片社

特朗普最近一次对选举问题含糊其辞，是在一种充满威胁的背景下进行的。今年大部分时间里，他都在试图通过在德克萨斯州和其他州推动中期选区划分不公来影响中期选举结果，并试图通过一项选民登记和身份识别法案来使共和党获胜，但最终未能成功。批评人士称，这项法案将剥夺数百万公民的选举权。

他最近下令司法部提起诉讼，阻止阿拉斯加州美国参议院选举的认证，如果共和党参议员丹·沙利文落败的话，尽管宪法并未赋予总统管理选举的权力。

特朗普坚称，另一位名叫丹尼尔·J·沙利文的候选人可能会混淆选民，并称他的参选是民主党的阴谋。但阿拉斯加州最高法院已裁定，第二位沙利文可以合法参选。

司法部周五采取另一项先发制人的行动，命令加州查明选民名册上疑似非公民的身份，并暂扣他们的邮寄选票——警告说，明知故犯地统计非公民选票的官员可能面临刑事责任。

联邦上诉法院阻止了司法部的这一策略。

在阿拉斯加，民主党挑战者玛丽·佩尔托拉已请求法官在选举日前驳回司法部的这一举措。但特朗普政府的这一举动增加了选后对峙的可能性。与2020年时任司法部长比尔·巴尔驳斥特朗普关于选举舞弊的指控不同，司法部这次似乎不太可能与他唱反调。

2021 年 1 月 6 日是美国现代史上最黑暗的日子之一，这一天留下的伤痕意味着特朗普最新的选举策略格外具有深意。

在“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）的支持者们冲进美国国会大厦，一些人殴打警察的几个月前，特朗普就用与他周二使用的措辞极其相似的语言，毒害了他们对 2020 年大选的信心。

“我希望这是一场公平的选举。如果选举公平……我百分之百支持，”特朗普在2020年9月与乔·拜登的首场总统辩论中说道。“但如果我看到成千上万张选票被操纵，我无法接受。”

四年后，在 CNN 的一场总统辩论中，当达娜·巴什问特朗普，无论谁获胜，他是否会接受选举结果时，他回答说：“如果这是一场公平、合法、良好的选举——当然会。”

特朗普没有对2024年的选举结果提出异议。原因显而易见：他赢了。四年前他输了。

特朗普在没有任何大规模美国选举舞弊的情况下，一再否认选举结果，这不禁让人质疑，为什么他是所有总统中唯一一个无法接受民主现实——有时你会输掉选举——的人。

一种解释是，特朗普已经提供了大量证据，表明他更看重权力，而不是选民有权选择领导人的原则。

另一个原因是，特朗普已经将自己塑造成人生赢家之一的个人品牌。这种脆弱的伪装与任何失败者的形象都格格不入——这也是他至今仍不愿承认自己在2020年败给拜登的原因之一。

但如果这次选举对共和党不利，他会怎么做呢？

美国司法部在阿拉斯加的介入意味着，如果佩尔托拉赢得民主党获得参议院多数席位所需的四个净席位中的任何一个，那么选举后可能会出现法律诉讼。不能排除在其他地区采取类似行动的可能性。

如果特朗普2020年试图强迫佐治亚州共和党官员“寻找”选票的失败尝试可以作为参考，那么关键州的共和党民选官员和总检察长们将会面临来自特朗普的巨大压力。如今，已经没有像巴尔那样的人物来驳斥潜在的舞弊指控。现任司法部长托德·布兰奇8月份在NBC的“会见媒体”节目中表示，他无法保证司法部始终独立于特朗普行事。

周日，布兰奇在 CNN 的“国情咨文”节目中表示，本届政府在阿拉斯加并没有做任何“不当”的事情，只是想确保合法的人获胜。她说：“特朗普总统并没有试图以任何方式、任何形式接管一个州的选举。”

但他强烈否认总统试图推翻 2020 年大选结果的行为可以作为其言论抹黑 2026 年中期选举的理由：“这不是关于 1 月 6 日的讨论。”

2020年，美国的法律和宪法保障措施依然有效。但如今，特朗普身边不再有那么多助手来约束他最反民主的本能。

尽管如此，负责监督选举的民主党人和两党州官员已经有几个月的时间来应对来自白宫官员和当地“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）运动人士的潜在威胁。

如果民主党大获全胜，特朗普干预选举的空间可能就会缩小。如果结果较为接近，旷日持久的法律战可能会导致参议院的控制权在数周内陷入僵局。如果民主党赢得多数席位，众议院议长人选哈基姆·杰弗里斯上周告诉CNN的马努·拉朱，他认为共和党人会“想方设法，想出各种阴险的阴谋，阻止11月3日的选举自由公正地进行”。

律师兼选举专家本·金斯伯格表示，新任参议员的就职受到质疑并非史无前例。“这种情况非常罕见。一旦发生，就会撕裂参议院的体制结构，”金斯伯格周日在CNN的特别选举报道中说道。

特朗普可能有强烈的动机去挑战不利的选举结果，因为民主党人已经计划对白宫、内阁和特朗普家族的财务交易展开无情的调查。

但是，一位支持率只有30%左右、刚刚输掉一场重要全国性选举的跛脚鸭总统，是否有足够的政治魄力来完成这项任务呢？

特朗普以自我为中心的竞选姿态表明，他对处境艰难的共和党人漠不关心。或许，当他的名字不在选票上时，他根本就不在乎了。

周二，总统似乎至少在考虑与民主党控制的国会进行一段艰难的共存时期。“听着，我拥有强大的否决权。我希望不会出现这种情况，但如果真的发生了，这种情况以前也发生过，很多总统都遇到过，”他说。

但特朗普往往会兑现他的威胁。他最近对选举结果的保留意见表明，他仍然认为他输掉的选举一定是不公平的。

所以最好相信他的话。