Lula's surprise win hits Korean investors in Brazil bonds

Korean investors who bought Brazilian government bonds faced losses after Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s surprise election victory sent yields higher and the real lower in Brazil on Monday. Investors had been drawn by annual yields of around 10 percent and tax-free interest income under a bilateral treaty. Concerns about government spending and a widening fiscal deficit drove the sell-off, while analysts said the medium- to long-term outlook could offer a buying opportunity if slower growth eases inflation and revives expectations of rate cuts.

Korean investors bought a net $5.53 million of Brazilian bonds in September, nearly four times the $1.39 million purchased in August, according to SEIBro, operated by the Korea Securities Depository.

Net purchases of Brazilian bonds by Korean investors totaled $1.78 million through Tuesday this month.

The yield on Brazil’s 10-year government bond maturing in January 2035 rose to 15.4 percent on Monday from a 52-week low of 12.5 percent earlier in the month.

The yield increase was estimated to have lowered bond prices by roughly 11 percent, while the real weakened 8.36 percent to 5.406 per U.S. dollar and the Bovespa index fell 17 percent.

Dean Heo of Hana Securities said 10-year government bond yields had risen by an average of 38 basis points in the month after past left-wing election victories, with increases continuing over the following three months.

Published Oct 28, 2026 3:16 pm KST

A man at a financial company points to a screen displaying market activity in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Monday, following the reelection of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Reuters-Yonhap

Korean investors who piled into high-yield Brazilian bonds ahead of the country's presidential election are nursing losses after Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's surprise victory sent bond yields soaring and the currency tumbling, analysts said Wednesday.

Brazilian government bonds have been popular among wealthy Korean investors, offering annual yields of around 10 percent and tax-free interest income under a bilateral tax treaty between Korea and Brazil.

Korean investors purchased a net $5.53 million worth of Brazilian bonds in September, nearly four times the $1.39 million recorded the previous month, according to SEIBro, a data portal operated by the Korea Securities Depository.

They continued to buy Brazilian bonds this month, with net purchases totaling $1.78 million through Tuesday.

Investor sentiment was buoyed by improving market conditions ahead of the presidential election amid growing expectations of a right-wing victory.

However, market sentiment shifted sharply after the election outcome. Growing concerns over increased government spending and a widening fiscal deficit sent government bond yields soaring, driving bond prices lower while the real weakened.

The yield on Brazil's 10-year government bond maturing in January 2035 fell to a 52-week low of 12.5 percent earlier this month before surging to 15.4 percent on Monday (local time). The jump represented an increase of about 2.4 percentage points from the previous trading session, a move estimated to have driven bond prices down by roughly 11 percent.

The real also tumbled, weakening 8.36 percent to 5.406 per U.S. dollar on Monday. Brazil's benchmark Bovespa index plunged 17 percent, posting its biggest decline since the COVID-19 pandemic rattled markets in March 2020.

Korean bond investors now face the risk of suffering losses from both falling bond prices and unfavorable currency movements. Investors who bought Brazilian bonds in October, when the real had strengthened to 4.98 per U.S. dollar, are expected to suffer even steeper losses.

Trump critic Lula wins reelection in Brazil, securing fourth presidential term

Brazil's markets set for sharp sell-off after Lula's reelection

Analysts say further weakness in the Brazilian real and declines in government bond prices are likely in the short term.

"During past left-wing election victories in Brazil, 10-year government bond yields rose by an average of 38 basis points in the month after the runoff, with gains extending over the following three months," said Dean Heo, a fixed-income analyst at Hana Securities.

"Unlike previous elections, when bond prices showed little movement ahead of the runoff, a strong pre-election rally this time could amplify the market fallout."

Still, the sell-off could present a buying opportunity over the medium to long term, analysts said, as a prolonged economic slowdown caused by high interest rates could ease inflationary pressures and revive expectations of interest rate cuts by Brazil's central bank.

周一，卢拉·达席尔瓦意外赢得大选，巴西国债收益率走高，雷亚尔汇率下跌，此前买入巴西国债的韩国投资者遭遇损失。投资者此前被约10%的年收益率以及双边条约规定的免税利息收入所吸引。对政府支出和不断扩大的财政赤字的担忧引发了抛售潮，而分析师表示，如果经济增长放缓能够缓解通胀并重燃降息预期，那么中长期前景可能提供买入良机。

据韩国证券存管机构运营的SEIBro数据显示，韩国投资者9月份净买入巴西债券553万美元，几乎是8月份购买额139万美元的四倍。

本月截至周二，韩国投资者净买入巴西债券总额达178万美元。

巴西将于 2035 年 1 月到期的 10 年期政府债券收益率周一升至 15.4%，高于本月早些时候创下的 52 周低点 12.5%。

收益率上升估计导致债券价格下跌约 11%，而雷亚尔兑美元汇率下跌 8.36% 至 5.406，巴西圣保罗证券交易所指数下跌 17%。

Hana Securities 的 Dean Heo 表示，过去左翼政党赢得选举后的一个月内，10 年期政府债券收益率平均上涨了 38 个基点，并且在接下来的三个月里继续上涨。

发布于2026年10月28日下午3:16（韩国标准时间）

周一，在巴西圣保罗，一名金融公司男子指着屏幕上显示的市场动态，此前路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦总统成功连任。路透社-韩联社

分析人士周三表示，在巴西总统大选前大量买入高收益巴西债券的韩国投资者，在路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦意外胜选后，债券收益率飙升，货币暴跌，目前正在承受损失。

巴西政府债券一直深受韩国富裕投资者的欢迎，其年收益率约为 10%，并且根据韩国和巴西之间的双边税收协定，利息收入免税。

据韩国证券存管局运营的数据门户网站SEIBro的数据显示，韩国投资者9月份净买入价值553万美元的巴西债券，几乎是上个月139万美元的四倍。

本月他们继续购买巴西债券，截至周二，净购买总额达 178 万美元。

在总统大选前夕，市场状况改善，投资者情绪受到提振，同时人们越来越预期右翼势力会获胜。

然而，选举结果公布后，市场情绪急剧转变。对政府支出增加和财政赤字扩大的担忧日益加剧，导致政府债券收益率飙升，债券价格下跌，同时雷亚尔汇率走弱。

本月初，巴西10年期国债（2035年1月到期）收益率一度跌至52周低点12.5%，随后在周一（当地时间）飙升至15.4%。这一涨幅较前一交易日上涨约2.4个百分点，据估计，此举导致债券价格下跌约11%。

周一，雷亚尔也大幅下跌，兑美元汇率下跌8.36%，至5.406。巴西基准股指博维斯帕指数暴跌17%，创下自2020年3月新冠疫情冲击市场以来的最大单日跌幅。

韩国债券投资者目前面临债券价格下跌和汇率不利波动带来的双重损失风险。10月份巴西雷亚尔兑美元汇率升至4.98时买入巴西债券的投资者，预计将遭受更大的损失。

批评特朗普的卢拉在巴西赢得连任，获得第四个总统任期。

卢拉连任后，巴西股市或将出现大幅抛售。

分析人士表示，短期内巴西雷亚尔可能进一步走弱，政府债券价格也可能下跌。

“在巴西过去的左翼选举胜利中，10 年期政府债券收益率在决选后的一个月内平均上涨了 38 个基点，并且在接下来的三个月里持续上涨，”韩亚证券固定收益分析师 Dean Heo 表示。

“与以往选举前债券价格几乎没有波动的情况不同，这次选举前强劲的上涨行情可能会加剧市场动荡。”

不过，分析师表示，从中长期来看，此次抛售可能带来买入机会，因为高利率导致的经济长期放缓可能会缓解通胀压力，并重新燃起人们对巴西央行降息的预期。