How to tell if Democrats are heading for a wave election in the House

J. Scott Applewhite/AP

House Democrats appear to be flirting with one of the biggest popular vote wins in decades.

The CNN Poll of Polls shows them leading the so-called “generic ballot” by 9 points , thanks in large part to President Donald Trump’s historic unpopularity. The last time either party won the House popular vote by at least 10 points in a midterm was in 1986.

But more so than the Senate, the battle for the House is difficult to follow. There are so many races — 435 of them, to be exact — and it’s tough to know which ones are important. How do you know whether Democrats are merely competing for the 218 seats needed for the majority — which they’re widely expected to win — or building a wave?

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We’ve picked a few races that will indicate whether Democrats are gaining seats, whether that’s enough for the majority and whether there’s a wave or even a tsunami building.

Follow these races on election night to know how well Democrats are doing.

These are the kinds of races Democrats really should be winning, under any circumstances.

California’s 1st District : This should be Democrats’ easiest pickup, after the district was redrawn to be one that would’ve favored Kamala Harris by 12 points in 2024. GOP Rep. James Gallagher is seeking reelection, but if Democrats can’t win here, they’re in for some shocking results.

Nebraska’s 2nd District : Given moderate GOP Rep. Don Bacon’s retirement and the slight blue lean of this Omaha-area district, this one should be a win for Democratic political activist Denise Powell .

New Jersey’s 7th District : This is a swing district in a state that moved toward Democrats between the 2024 presidential election and the 2025 state elections. Combine that with GOP Rep. Tom Kean Jr.’s months-long unexplained absence — he later cited treatment for depression — and the fact that a top Republican super PAC recently pulled money out of this district, and the signs of a Democratic pickup are there.

These are the seats where victory should mean Democrats are clearing the low bar for a House majority. (They technically need to flip three Republican seats, but the GOP’s mid-decade redistricting has effectively raised that threshold by a handful of seats.)

Arizona’s 6th District : It would seem telling that GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani didn’t show up a couple weeks back when Trump was in Arizona for a rally. (GOP candidate Jay Feely, who’s running in the state’s open 1st District, wasn’t there either.) Ciscomani holds a bona-fide swing district that should be very attainable for Democrats if they’re having a good night.

Iowa’s 3rd District : GOP Rep. Zach Nunn made big news in September by voting to limit Trump’s authority on the Iran war . He comes from a district that favored Trump by 4 points in 2024, but Democrats appear to be gaining significant ground in Iowa — competing to flip three House districts and win the Senate and gubernatorial races.

Texas’ 34th District : The GOP made Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez’s district into one Trump would have won by 10 points. House Speaker Mike Johnson has staked his job on holding seats like this one, saying at a recent campaign event, “South Texas will literally decide the majority in the Congress.” But polls show Hispanic voters have swung significantly back toward Democrats since then. That means they should really hold on to this seat if they’re to win the majority.

If Democrats are winning these seats, they’re probably looking at a wave election of at least some sort.

Kentucky’s 6th District : This district, which GOP Rep. Andy Barr is vacating to run for Senate, favored Trump by 15 points, but Republican nominee Ralph Alvarado began significantly distancing himself from Trump back in August . This will also be the first marquee House race where polls will close (at 6 p.m. Eastern Time).

Montana’s 1st District : This is another open-seat race in a double-digit Trump district that has looked competitive for a while. And Democrats have picked the kind of candidate who can seemingly put it in play: populist labor leader and former smokejumper Sam Forstag, who will face Republican Army veteran Aaron Flint.

Pennsylvania’s 1st District : In this swing district, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick — perhaps the House GOP’s preeminent moderate — has proven remarkably resilient over the years. In fact, he won by 13 points in 2024 despite Trump narrowly losing his district. But these are the kinds of incumbents who tend to lose in a wave.

Winning these districts would make 2026 one of the bigger midterm waves in recent history.

Colorado’s 4th District : GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert has had her share of personal problems (see: “ Beetlejuice ”). But she was supposed to be safe when she switched to a deep-red eastern Colorado district in the 2024 election. The combination of her problems and the environment means this Trump +18 district is in play.

Missouri’s 2nd District : GOP Rep. Ann Wagner won by double digits in 2022 and 2024, but a spirited challenge from Democrat Fred Wellman has put this race on the radar screen. The district is not overwhelmingly conservative at Trump +8, but Wagner’s proven a solid incumbent — the kind you don’t really expect to lose.

New York’s 21st District: One of the first big signs of Democrats’ electoral momentum last year was when Trump withdrew GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik’s nomination to become United Nations ambassador because Republicans were worried about losing her Trump +21 district in a special election. It was virtually unthinkable at the time that they might also have to defend it in the general election, when such upsets aren’t nearly as common. But Stefanik is retiring, and it’s possible that Republican nominee Anthony Constantino could lose.

If these seats go blue, Tuesday could be a Republican drubbing of epic proportions.

Kansas’ 2nd District : If Democratic veterinarian Don Coover can upset GOP Rep. Derek Schmidt in this Trump +20 district, it will probably be because Democratic Senate nominee Adam Hamilton did so well that his coattails pulled Coover across the line.

Texas’ 9th District : When Republicans redrew this state’s congressional map to try and win as many as five additional seats , this district — which Trump also would have won by 20 points — was supposed to be the second-easiest of the five. But some GOP outside groups have moved to shore up Republican Alex Mealer after a poll showed a single-digit race.

Wyoming’s At-Large District : The handicapper Inside Elections recently turned heads by moving this open statewide race, where Trump won by 46 points, from “solid Republican” to merely “ likely Republican .” It cited Trump’s problems and how divisive GOP Secretary of State Chuck Gray has been. If Democrat Lisa Kinney can pull it off, the 2026 election will be historic.

J. Scott Applewhite/美联社

众议院民主党人似乎有望赢得几十年来最大的普选胜利之一。

CNN的民调汇总显示，他们在所谓的“普选”中领先9个百分点，这很大程度上要归功于唐纳德·特朗普总统史无前例的低支持率。上一次任何一方在中期选举中赢得众议院普选票领先至少10个百分点，还要追溯到1986年。

但与参议院相比，众议院的选情更加扑朔迷离。席位之多——确切地说是435个——让人难以分辨哪些席位至关重要。如何判断民主党人仅仅是在争夺获得多数席位所需的218个席位（外界普遍预期他们会赢），还是在酝酿一场席卷全国的浪潮？

通往2026年中期选举的道路现在就开始了。

每周，亚伦·布莱克都会以犀利的分析，拨开政治迷雾，深入剖析可能决定国会控制权的选情、候选人和趋势。订阅《20/26 视野》周刊，了解今年中期选举的最新动态。

我们挑选了一些选举，这些选举将显示民主党是否正在赢得席位，这是否足以获得多数席位，以及是否正在酝酿一股浪潮甚至一场海啸。

选举之夜请关注这些选情，了解民主党的表现如何。

无论在任何情况下，这些才是民主党人真正应该赢得的选举类型。

加州第一选区：这应该是民主党最容易拿下的选区，因为该选区重新划分后，如果按照原先的选区划分，卡马拉·哈里斯在2024年大选中将以12个百分点的优势获胜。共和党众议员詹姆斯·加拉格尔正在寻求连任，但如果民主党无法赢得该选区，他们将面临一些令人震惊的结果。

内布拉斯加州第二选区：鉴于温和派共和党众议员唐·培根退休，以及奥马哈地区这个选区略微倾向于民主党，民主党政治活动家丹尼斯·鲍威尔应该会赢得这场选举。

新泽西州第七选区：这是一个摇摆选区，而新泽西州在2024年总统大选和2025年州选举之间逐渐倾向于民主党。再加上共和党众议员小汤姆·基恩长达数月的无故缺席（他后来声称正在接受抑郁症治疗），以及一个共和党超级政治行动委员会最近撤回了对该选区的捐款，种种迹象表明，民主党可能会赢得该选区。

如果民主党在这些席位上获胜，就意味着他们已经达到了赢得众议院多数席位的最低门槛。（理论上他们需要翻转三个共和党席位，但共和党在十年前进行的选区重划实际上提高了这一门槛几个席位。）

亚利桑那州第六选区：几周前特朗普在亚利桑那州举行竞选集会时，共和党众议员胡安·西斯科马尼并未现身，这似乎颇具深意。（共和党候选人杰伊·费利，他正在竞选该州空缺的第一选区，也未到场。）西斯科马尼所在的选区是名副其实的摇摆选区，如果民主党当晚表现出色，那么他们很有可能拿下该选区。

爱荷华州第三选区：共和党众议员扎克·纳恩 (Zach Nunn) 9 月份投票限制特朗普在伊朗战争中的权力，引发广泛关注。他所在的选区在 2024 年大选中以 4 个百分点的优势支持特朗普，但民主党似乎正在爱荷华州取得重大进展——他们正努力争取拿下三个众议院选区，并赢得参议院和州长选举。

德克萨斯州第34选区：共和党将民主党众议员维森特·冈萨雷斯所在的选区变成了特朗普原本会以10个百分点优势获胜的选区。众议院议长迈克·约翰逊将自己的政治生涯押注于保住像这样的席位上，他在最近的一次竞选活动中表示：“德克萨斯州南部将真正决定国会的多数席位。”但民调显示，自那以后，西班牙裔选民的立场已显著转向民主党。这意味着，如果共和党想要赢得多数席位，就必须守住这个席位。

如果民主党人赢得这些席位，他们很可能会迎来某种程度的选举浪潮。

肯塔基州第六选区：该选区原由共和党众议员安迪·巴尔担任，他即将卸任众议员一职竞选参议员。此前，特朗普在该选区领先15个百分点，但共和党候选人拉尔夫·阿尔瓦拉多早在8月份就开始与特朗普明显拉开距离。这将是首个投票将于美国东部时间下午6点结束的众议院重要选举。

蒙大拿州第一选区：这是特朗普支持率两位数选区中又一个空缺席位的竞选，竞争一直很激烈。民主党选择了一位似乎能够扭转乾坤的候选人：民粹主义劳工领袖、前跳伞消防员萨姆·福斯塔格，他将与共和党候选人、陆军老兵亚伦·弗林特展开角逐。

宾夕法尼亚州第一选区：在这个摇摆选区，众议员布莱恩·菲茨帕特里克——或许是众议院共和党最杰出的温和派——多年来展现出了惊人的韧性。事实上，尽管特朗普在该选区以微弱劣势落败，他仍在2024年以13个百分点的优势获胜。但这类现任议员往往会在选举浪潮中落败。

赢得这些选区将使 2026 年成为近代史上规模最大的中期选举之一。

科罗拉多州第四选区：共和党众议员劳伦·博伯特（Lauren Boebert）曾遭遇不少个人问题（参见电影《阴间大法师》）。但人们原本以为，她在2024年大选中转战科罗拉多州东部这个传统上支持共和党的选区后，就能稳操胜券。然而，她自身的问题以及选区环境的双重影响，使得这个特朗普支持率高出18%的选区如今变得扑朔迷离。

密苏里州第二选区：共和党众议员安·瓦格纳在2022年和2024年的选举中均以两位数优势获胜，但民主党候选人弗雷德·韦尔曼的强劲挑战使这场选举备受关注。该选区并非绝对保守（特朗普支持率略高于8个百分点），但瓦格纳已证明自己是一位稳固的现任议员——那种你几乎不会预料到她会落败的议员。

纽约州第21选区：去年民主党选举势头强劲的早期迹象之一，是特朗普撤回了对共和党众议员伊莉丝·斯特凡尼克（Elise Stefanik）的联合国大使提名，因为共和党担心在特别选举中失去这个特朗普支持率高出21%的选区。当时几乎无法想象他们可能还要在普选中捍卫这个选区，因为这种意外情况在普选中并不常见。但斯特凡尼克即将退休，共和党候选人安东尼·康斯坦蒂诺（Anthony Constantino）有可能落败。

如果这些席位都由民主党拿下，周二共和党可能会遭遇一场史诗级的惨败。

堪萨斯州第二选区：如果民主党兽医唐·库弗能够在这个特朗普支持率高出 20% 的选区击败共和党众议员德里克·施密特，那很可能是因为民主党参议员候选人亚当·汉密尔顿表现出色，他的“顺风车”帮助库弗赢得了选举。

德克萨斯州第九选区：共和党重新划分了该州的国会选区，试图赢得多达五个席位。第九选区——特朗普原本也能以20个百分点的优势获胜——原本被认为是五个选区中第二容易拿下的。但民调显示，该选区与共和党候选人亚历克斯·米勒的差距只有个位数，一些共和党外部团体因此开始支持米勒。

怀俄明州全州选区：选举预测机构“内部选举”（Inside Elections）近期出人意料地将这场特朗普曾以46个百分点优势获胜的全州公开选区选举，从“稳固共和党选区”下调至“可能共和党选区”。该机构指出，特朗普面临诸多问题，共和党籍州务卿查克·格雷（Chuck Gray）的言论也极具争议性。如果民主党候选人丽莎·金尼（Lisa Kinney）能够最终胜出，2026年的选举将具有历史意义。