Fed set to hold rates steady in final move before midterms

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Pause after last month’s hike? The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold its benchmark interest rate steady this month after raising rates in September for the first time since 2023.

Still-stubborn inflation: The war with Iran continues to push up energy prices, with higher costs starting to spread to other goods and services. That’s complicating the picture for Fed officials as they balance the impact of persistently higher inflation with higher borrowing costs on already-stretched consumers.

Fed independence under scrutiny: The decision comes less than a week before the US midterm elections. President Donald Trump has repeatedly called for lower rates, pressuring a central bank whose rate decisions are guided by economic conditions, not political demands.

What comes next? Investors will be looking for clues from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh about whether another rate hike is likely in December. Officials signaled last month that they may raise rates again this year.

What to expect from the Fed today

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The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates steady on Wednesday, even as officials weigh another hike this year to tame rising inflation.

Central bankers have struggled to tame inflation for years. But gas and energy prices have been on an upward climb since the war in Iran began, and came in hotter than expected in September.

Still, the Fed’s moves may only do so much. Tweaking interest rates can’t bring down gas prices, for example. Rates are designed to slow or stimulate the economy broadly and without targeting individual industries.

At his 2:30 p.m. press conference, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is likely to face questions on the Fed’s next move. His answers may be brief: Warsh has come out strong against any “forward guidance,” which was used for years to tee up future decisions.

Warsh may also face questions as to whether the Fed held off on a hike because of political pressure just days before the midterm elections.

Fed leaders defend their independence. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has repeatedly attacked the central bank for not lowering rates, and his approval rating has tanked over cost-of-living issues.

我们在这里讨论的内容

继上月加息后，是否会暂停加息？市场普遍预期，美联储在9月份自2023年以来首次加息后，本月将维持基准利率不变。

通胀依然高企：与伊朗的战争持续推高能源价格，而成本上涨的影响也开始蔓延至其他商品和服务。这使得美联储官员在权衡持续高企的通胀和不断上涨的借贷成本对本已捉襟见肘的消费者的影响时，面临着更加复杂的局面。

美联储独立性受质疑：该决定距离美国中期选举不到一周。唐纳德·特朗普总统多次呼吁降低利率，给这家以经济状况而非政治诉求为指导的央行施加压力。

接下来会发生什么？投资者将密切关注美联储主席凯文·沃什的讲话，以判断12月是否可能再次加息。官员们上个月曾暗示，今年可能会再次加息。

今天美联储的动向值得期待

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尽管美联储官员正在考虑今年再次加息以抑制不断上涨的通胀，但市场普遍预期美联储将在周三维持利率不变。

多年来，各国央行一直在努力抑制通胀。但自伊朗战争爆发以来，天然气和能源价格持续上涨，9月份的涨幅更是超出预期。

然而，美联储的举措可能作用有限。例如，调整利率并不能降低汽油价格。利率的目的是为了整体上减缓或刺激经济，而不是针对特定行业。

美联储主席凯文·沃什将在下午2点30分的记者会上被问及美联储的下一步行动。他的回答可能比较简短：沃什一直强烈反对任何形式的“前瞻性指引”，而这种指引曾被美联储多年来用来为未来的决策铺路。

沃什可能还会面临这样的质疑：美联储是否因为中期选举前几天的政治压力而推迟了加息。

美联储领导人捍卫其独立性。与此同时，唐纳德·特朗普总统多次抨击美联储不降息，而他因生活成本问题而支持率暴跌。