New polls have more good news for Democrats’ Senate hopes

New surveys confirm just how much Democrats have expanded the Senate map in the 2026 midterm elections.

The New York Times/Siena polls — the first high-quality surveys in some states — show Democrats with a bona fide pickup opportunity in South Carolina and possibly another one in Florida. The Minnesota survey, meanwhile, suggests that GOP hopes of an unlikely pickup there might have been dashed.

One poll in a given state should not be oversold. (And despite Democratic momentum, many races this year are within the margin of error .) But given the dearth of polling in these three particular states — and the stakes of each race this year — the new surveys are worth delving into.

The big news is that appointed GOP Sen. Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews are tied at 48% among likely voters in South Carolina.

It’s the first high-quality public poll of the state, and it suggests the race is not just potentially winnable for Democrats, but something of a toss-up, which is astounding in a state President Donald Trump won by 18 points in 2024.

It comes after another Times/Siena poll showed a dead heat in Kansas — a state Trump won by 16 points.

And it’s clear why the South Carolina race is close: Republicans nominated a Trump-picked candidate with major qualification questions looming over her.

While likely voters said by 13 points that Andrews (who is a physician) has the “right experience to be an effective senator,” they say by 7 points that Graham (the previously largely unknown sister of the late GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham) does not .

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Among independents, 59% say Andrews has the right experience, while just 31% say Graham does.

While 62% of Democrats strongly agree that Andrews has the right experience, only 35% of Republicans strongly agree that Graham does.

That’s a brutal assessment from Graham’s own party.

All of which helps explain why Andrews leads 57%-37% among independents and even pulls 7% of Republican likely voters.

The data also suggests that GOP attempts to paint Andrews as an extremist — largely by invoking her past comments on transgender rights and using an anti-transgender slur against her — have so far fallen flat. Just 39% of likely voters in this conservative state say she’s too far to the left.

There’s not yet high-quality polling in some other red states where the GOP could be feeling nervous — like Nebraska and even Mississippi, where Trump appeared on Monday. But the Times/Siena polls in Kansas and South Carolina show that Democrats have lots of opportunities.

Another big finding was a poll suggesting Democrats don’t have too much to worry about in Minnesota. Up until now, the limited evidence had suggested the state, which backed Kamala Harris by 4 points, was something of a Democratic headache .

The New York Times/Siena survey shows Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan leading Republican former TV sportscaster Michele Tafoya 54%-40% .

The poll does suggest voters have real concerns about Flanagan being too far to the left, with even 17% of her own supporters saying that about her. She’s barely winning any GOP votes — unlike many other Democratic Senate candidates . And she’s not especially popular.

But the poll suggests the electorate could just be too friendly to Democrats for any of that to matter.

Democrats lead by 18 points on the generic ballot in the state, and 57% of likely voters have a strongly unfavorable view of Trump.

Even if the Minnesota electorate doesn’t wind up being quite as blue as that, Tafoya would seem to face an uphill battle in what looks like a good Democratic year. Flanagan even leads by double digits — 54%-39% — among independents.

A third survey seems to confirm that Florida — which has trended quite Republican in the Trump era — is a second-tier target for Democrats.

The poll shows GOP Sen. Ashley Moody leading Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon by 6 points, 50-44% . It follows a University of North Florida poll last week that put Moody up by a similar 4-point margin, 49%-45% .

Republicans will be happy their lead remains outside the margin of error.

But that’s still competitive. Despite this state being widely written off when Democrats nominated Nixon, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, just 37% of likely voters say she’s too far to the left. And Nixon leads 52%-38% among independents.

It would seem difficult for Nixon to get over the hump in a state that has trended so Republican. But at the very least, the New York Times/Siena poll suggests the governor’s race is in play.

It shows GOP Rep. Byron Donalds at 48% and Democratic former Rep. David Jolly at 44% — a 4-point margin that is very close to the poll’s 3.9-point margin of error.

Even losing the governor’s race in Florida would be a major GOP setback.

最新调查证实，民主党在2026年中期选举中大幅扩大了参议院的版图。

《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院的民调——部分州首次进行的高质量民调——显示，民主党在南卡罗来纳州有切实的机会赢得该州，在佛罗里达州也可能出现类似情况。与此同时，明尼苏达州的民调表明，共和党在该州意外获胜的希望可能已经破灭。

不应过分依赖某个州的单一民调结果。（尽管民主党势头强劲，但今年许多选情仍处于误差范围之内。）但鉴于这三个州的民调数据匮乏，以及今年每场选举的重要性，这些新的调查结果值得深入研究。

最大的新闻是，在南卡罗来纳州，共和党参议员达琳·格雷厄姆和民主党人安妮·安德鲁斯在可能投票的选民中支持率均为 48%。

这是该州首次高质量的公开民意调查，结果显示，民主党不仅有可能赢得这场选举，而且胜负难料，这在唐纳德·特朗普总统 2024 年以 18 个百分点的优势赢得的该州，是令人震惊的。

此前，《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院的另一项民调显示，在堪萨斯州，双方势均力敌——而特朗普在该州曾以 16 个百分点的优势获胜。

南卡罗来纳州的选情胶着的原因显而易见：共和党提名了一位由特朗普挑选的候选人，但她的资格却备受质疑。

虽然有 13 个百分点的人认为安德鲁斯（一位医生）“拥有成为一名有效参议员的合适经验”，但他们有 7 个百分点的人认为格雷厄姆（已故共和党参议员林赛·格雷厄姆此前鲜为人知的妹妹）没有这种经验。

通往2026年中期选举的道路现在就开始了。

每周，亚伦·布莱克都会以犀利的分析，拨开政治迷雾，深入剖析可能决定国会控制权的选情、候选人和趋势。订阅《20/26 视野》周刊，了解今年中期选举的最新动态。

在独立人士中，59%的人认为安德鲁斯拥有合适的经验，而只有31%的人认为格雷厄姆拥有合适的经验。

虽然 62% 的民主党人强烈认为安德鲁斯拥有合适的经验，但只有 35% 的共和党人强烈认为格雷厄姆拥有合适的经验。

这是格雷厄姆来自自己党内的严厉评价。

所有这些都有助于解释为什么安德鲁斯在独立选民中以 57% 比 37% 的优势领先，甚至还获得了 7% 的共和党潜在选民的支持。

数据显示，共和党试图将安德鲁斯描绘成极端分子——主要手段是援引她过去关于跨性别者权利的言论，并使用反跨性别者的侮辱性词语攻击她——但迄今为止收效甚微。在这个保守州，只有39%的潜在选民认为她的立场过​​于左倾。

在其他一些共和党可能感到紧张的红色州，例如内布拉斯加州，甚至包括特朗普周一露面的密西西比州，目前还没有高质量的民调数据。但《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院在堪萨斯州和南卡罗来纳州的民调显示，民主党有很多机会。

另一项重要发现是，民调显示民主党在明尼苏达州无需过于担忧。此前，有限的证据表明，这个以4个百分点优势支持卡马拉·哈里斯的州一直是民主党的一大难题。

《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院的民调显示，民主党副州长佩吉·弗拉纳根以 54% 对 40% 的支持率领先共和党前电视体育播音员米歇尔·塔福亚。

民调显示，选民确实对弗拉纳根过于左倾感到担忧，甚至有17%的支持者也持相同看法。与其他许多民主党参议员候选人不同，她几乎没有赢得任何共和党选票。而且，她的支持率也并不高。

但民调显示，选民可能对民主党过于友好，以至于这一切都无关紧要。

在该州的普选中，民主党领先18个百分点，57%的潜在选民对特朗普持强烈负面看法。

即便明尼苏达州的选民最终没有像人们预期的那样倾向民主党，塔福亚在今年这个看似民主党占优的年份里，似乎也面临着一场艰苦的选战。弗拉纳根甚至在独立选民中也以两位数的优势领先——54%比39%。

第三项调查似乎证实，在特朗普时代逐渐倾向共和党的佛罗里达州，是民主党的第二梯队目标。

民调显示，共和党参议员阿什利·穆迪以50%对44%领先民主党州众议员安吉·尼克松6个百分点。此前，北佛罗里达大学上周的民调也显示，穆迪以49%对45%的类似优势领先4个百分点。

共和党人会很高兴他们的领先优势仍然在误差范围之外。

但选情依然胶着。尽管民主党提名尼克松（美国民主社会主义者成员）时，该州普遍被认为胜算渺茫，但只有37%的潜在选民认为她过于左倾。而且，尼克松在独立选民中以52%比38%领先。

在共和党势力日益壮大的纽约州，尼克松想要赢得大选似乎难上加难。但至少，《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院的民调显示，州长之争仍存在变数。

民调显示，共和党众议员拜伦·唐纳兹的支持率为 48%，民主党前众议员大卫·乔利的支持率为 44%——相差 4 个百分点，非常接近民调 3.9 个百分点的误差幅度。

即便输掉佛罗里达州的州长竞选，对共和党来说也是一次重大挫败。