Germany’s AfD wins in key state: Is far-right on cusp of national rule?

The AfD, which is classified as ‘far-right extremist’ by Germany’s intelligence agency is projected to come first in the 2029 national election.

AfD party members celebrate victory in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday [Matthias Schrader/AP]

For the first time since World War II, a far-right party is within reach of power at state level in Germany, after coming first in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday.

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) won 44 percent of the vote, stopping short of an overall majority but making clear its wide political significance.

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On election night, AfD’s leader in the state called on other political groups to cooperate. “As a democrat, I will reach out to all those who wish to work with us to bring about a fundamental political turnaround,” Ulrich Siegmund said.

Yet, forming a government will prove difficult. The AfD has been classified as “far-right extremist” by the domestic intelligence agency and other political groups remain wary of striking an alliance.

The AfD has dismissed accusations of extremism and mainstream parties have been unable to halt its surge in the polls over recent months. Latest polling indicates the party, which stands for strong restrictions on immigration, restoring ties with Russia, cutting support to Ukraine and quitting the euro, is Germany’s most popular at national level.

The Saxony-Anhalt election could be a harbinger of a historic return of the far-right in the 2029 national election, when forecasts say the AfD stands a realistic chance of finishing first.

What happened in Saxony-Anhalt?

Siegmund, the charismatic 35-year-old who attracted thousands to his campaign rallies, said AfD “made history”.

“The people have made it absolutely clear that they finally want political change and, above all, they have shown that they want it with ⁠us,” he told supporters.

The AfD achieved its best-ever election result in Saxony-Anhalt with 44 percent of the vote, leaving all other parties far behind. The incumbent centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU), led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, scored less than half of that share with 17 percent.

The AfD is projected to gain 39 of the 83 seats in the state parliament in Magdeburg, leaving it three short of the 42 needed for an absolute majority.

That means the party must find allies, but all other mainstream parties refuse to work with the far-right, a strategy of non-cooperation known as the “firewall”. The AfD has so far never participated in a governing coalition in Germany’s 16 states nor in its federal government.

While he now appears willing to strike deals with other parties to come to power, previously Siegmund signalled unwillingness to find middle ground with other political groups. Leading up to the vote, he stated that he was only interested in governing alone to bring about fundamental political change in Germany.

How did AfD fare in recent elections?

The election takes the AfD one step closer to advancing its agenda, while also reflecting the growing unpopularity of Germany’s ruling coalition.

In Saxony-Anhalt, the party more than doubled its vote share — from 21 percent in the last election. By contrast, the CDU’s vote halved from 37 percent to 17 percent, its worst result ever in the east-central German state.

Federal elections last year similarly resulted in a landmark performance by the AfD, which emerged as the largest opposition faction in the Bundestag, the German federal parliament in Berlin. The party came second with 21 percent of the vote, securing its highest-ever showing.

In state elections in Baden-Wurttemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate earlier this year too, the AfD more than doubled its seats — though it still finished third. In 2024, the AfD emerged victorious in the Thuringia state election and second in the Brandenburg state election — both were firsts for the party.

The AfD’s electoral gains in Saxony-Anhalt mirror growing dissatisfaction among voters — especially in the former East Germany — about the stagnant economy, high unemployment and domestic security, which the party largely pins on immigration.

What challenges lie ahead for AfD?

Since its formation in 2013, the AfD has been embroiled in various scandals and has faced major controversies, including alleged foreign espionage links, secret deportation plans and internal nepotism.

The party went from a fringe Eurosceptic group to the country’s most powerful opposition force in little more than a decade, becoming too extreme even for the European Parliament’s far-right Identity & Democracy group. It kicked the party out in May 2024 after lead AfD candidate Maximilian Krah stated that not everyone in the SS – Adolf Hitler’s infamous Nazi paramilitary organisation – was a criminal.

Krah has also been under investigation by German prosecutors for alleged illegal payments, bribery and money laundering linked to China and Russia. The German parliament last year decided to lift the far-right legislator’s immunity to help investigators.

AfD politicians have also come under fire for employing family members, including in Saxony-Anhalt, where several parliamentarians are reported to have employed relatives.

Bundestag President, Julia Klockner, banned seven AfD employees from entering the German parliament over security concerns, after they failed internal background reliability checks due to their ties to right-wing extremist networks and past criminal convictions.

Senior AfD figures also faced a backlash for attending a secretive meeting to discuss mass deportation plans for people with a migration background.

What are the AfD’s prospects for the national election in 2029?

Pollsters are unanimous in forecasting the AfD as the largest party in Germany in the next national election in 2029, with around 28 percent of the vote.

That would mark a major transformation in the German political landscape from 2025, when the CDU and its ally the Christian Social Union together won 28.5 percent of the vote.

Yet even that outcome would not necessarily give AfD the ability to govern. If other parties maintain a “firewall” policy, that could prevent the far-right party from forming a coalition government.

Still, the Saxony-Anhalt election has been received by some politicians as a call for change. “Politics begins with considering reality,” Cem Ozdemir, head of government in the southwestern state of Baden-Wurttemberg and a member of the Green Party, wrote on X.

“That means the AfD is the election winner in Saxony-Anhalt. And that must mean for all democratic forces that nothing can remain as it is, and we must fundamentally reconsider our politics and our political style.”

被德国情报机构归类为“极右翼极端主义”的德国选择党（AfD）预计将在2029年全国大选中获得第一名。

德国选择党成员周日在萨克森-安哈尔特州庆祝胜利 [Matthias Schrader/AP]

二战以来，德国极右翼政党首次有机会在州一级执政，该党在周日萨克森-安哈尔特州选举中获胜。

德国另类选择党（AfD）赢得了 44% 的选票，虽然未能获得绝对多数，但也清楚地表明了其广泛的政治意义。

三位美国特使中的第一位在首次访问基辅期间与泽连斯基举行了“实质性”会谈

德国极右翼政党德国选择党（AfD）赢得萨克森-安哈尔特州选举，但未能获得多数席位（共3条记录，此为第2条）。德国极右翼政党德国选择党赢得萨克森-安哈尔特州选举，但未能获得多数席位。（共3条记录，此为第2条）

列表 3（共 3 项）：德国选择党能否组建二战以来德国首个极右翼州政府？

选举之夜，德国选择党在该州的领导人呼吁其他政治团体合作。“作为一名民主人士，我将与所有愿意与我们合作以实现政治根本性转变的人士进行接触，”乌尔里希·西格蒙德说道。

然而，组建政府将困难重重。德国选择党已被国内情报机构列为“极右翼极端主义政党”，其他政治团体也对结盟持谨慎态度。

德国选择党否认了有关其极端主义的指控，而主流政党也未能阻止其近几个月来在民调中支持率的飙升。最新民调显示，该党主张严格限制移民、恢复与俄罗斯的关系、削减对乌克兰的支持并退出欧元区，目前已成为德国全国范围内最受欢迎的政党。

萨克森-安哈尔特州的选举可能预示着极右翼势力将在 2029 年的全国大选中卷土重来，据预测，届时德国选择党 (AfD) 很有可能赢得第一名。

萨克森-安哈尔特州发生了什么事？

西格蒙德是一位极具魅力的35岁青年，他的竞选集会吸引了数千人参加。他表示，德国选择党“创造了历史”。

“人民已经非常明确地表示，他们最终想要政治变革，而且最重要的是，他们已经表明，他们希望与我们一起实现这一变革，”他告诉支持者。

德国选择党（AfD）在萨克森-安哈尔特州取得了有史以来最好的选举成绩，获得了44%的选票，远远领先于其他所有政党。由总理弗里德里希·默茨领导的现任中右翼基督教民主联盟（CDU）的得票率不足其一半，仅为17%。

德国选择党预计将在马格德堡州议会的 83 个席位中获得 39 个席位，距离获得绝对多数所需的 42 个席位还差 3 个。

这意味着该党必须寻找盟友，但所有其他主流政党都拒绝与极右翼合作，这种不合作策略被称为“防火墙”。迄今为止，德国选择党从未参与过德国16个州的执政联盟，也从未参与过联邦政府的执政。

尽管他现在似乎愿意与其他政党达成协议以夺取政权，但此前西格蒙德曾表示不愿与其他政治团体寻求中间立场。在选举前夕，他曾表示，他只对单独执政感兴趣，目的是为德国带来根本性的政治变革。

德国选择党在最近的选举中表现如何？

此次选举使德国选择党在推进其议程方面又向前迈进了一步，同时也反映出德国执政联盟的支持率日益下降。

在萨克森-安哈尔特州，该党得票率翻了一番还多，从上次选举的21%上升到现在的水平。相比之下，基民盟的得票率则从37%骤降至17%，创下该党在该德国中东部州的历史最差成绩。

去年的联邦选举中，德国选择党（AfD）同样取得了里程碑式的成绩，成为德国联邦议院（位于柏林的德国联邦议会）中最大的反对党。该党以21%的得票率位居第二，创下了其历史最高纪录。

今年早些时候，在巴登-符腾堡州和莱茵兰-普法尔茨州的州选举中，德国选择党（AfD）的席位也增加了一倍多，但最终仍位列第三。2024年，德国选择党在图林根州选举中获胜，并在勃兰登堡州选举中位列第二——这两项选举结果均为该党历史上首次。

德国选择党在萨克森-安哈尔特州的选举胜利反映了选民（尤其是前东德选民）对经济停滞、失业率高企和国内安全日益增长的不满，而该党则将这些问题主要归咎于移民。

德国另类选择党未来面临哪些挑战？

自 2013 年成立以来，德国选择党 (AfD) 一直深陷各种丑闻，并面临重大争议，包括涉嫌与外国间谍活动有关联、秘密驱逐计划和内部裙带关系。

该党在短短十余年间，从一个边缘的疑欧派团体一跃成为德国最强大的反对力量，其极端立场甚至令欧洲议会的极右翼“身份与民主”党团也感到难以接受。2024年5月，在德国选择党（AfD）首席候选人马克西米利安·克拉赫发表“并非所有纳粹党卫军（希特勒臭名昭著的准军事组织）成员都是罪犯”的言论后，该党被欧洲议会极右翼党团开除。

克拉赫还因涉嫌与中国和俄罗斯有关的非法支付、贿赂和洗钱活动而受到德国检察官的调查。德国议会去年决定取消这位极右翼议员的豁免权，以协助调查人员。

德国选择党（AfD）的政客们也因雇用家庭成员而受到抨击，包括在萨克森-安哈尔特州，据报道该州有多名议员雇用了亲属。

德国联邦议院议长尤利娅·克洛克纳以安全为由，禁止七名德国选择党（AfD）员工进入德国议会，因为他们与右翼极端主义网络有联系，并且有犯罪前科，未能通过内部背景可靠性检查。

德国选择党的高层人士也因参加秘密会议讨论大规模驱逐有移民背景人士的计划而遭到强烈反对。

德国选择党在2029年全国大选中的前景如何？

民调机构一致预测，在2029年的下届德国全国大选中，德国选择党将成为德国最大的政党，获得约28%的选票。

这将标志着德国政治格局从 2025 年开始发生重大变化，届时基民盟及其盟友基督教社会联盟将共同赢得 28.5% 的选票。

然而，即便如此，也未必能让德国选择党获得执政能力。如果其他政党坚持“防火墙”政策，就可能阻止这个极右翼政党组建联合政府。

尽管如此，萨克森-安哈尔特州的选举还是被一些政治家视为变革的呼声。“政治始于考虑现实，”巴登-符腾堡州州长、绿党成员杰姆·厄兹德米尔在X网站上写道。

“这意味着德国选择党在萨克森-安哈尔特州赢得了选举。这对所有民主力量来说都意味着，一切都不能再维持现状，我们必须从根本上重新审视我们的政治和政治风格。”