Claimed Israeli capture of Lebanese ridge reshapes negotiation dynamics

Israel’s continued strikes challenge Lebanon’s push for an elusive peace agreement and stability.

A flare fired by the Israeli military over the Ali al-Taher ridge as seen from nearby Marjayoun in southern Lebanon, June 14, 2026 [AFP]

Beirut, Lebanon – On Friday, Israel claimed to have established operational control over the Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon, a development in its fight against Hezbollah that analysts believe could also give Israel greater leverage in negotiations with the Lebanese government planned for later this month.

The Israeli operation to seize the ridge has been ongoing for weeks – and what it says are Hezbollah tunnels underneath – with frequent drone and air strikes by the Israeli military. Analysts told Al Jazeera that the strategically important high ground is significant for the Israelis and Hezbollah because it overlooks a number of nearby regions, including the southern city of Nabatieh.

list 1 of 3 Nearly 9,000 killed in Israeli attacks on Lebanon since 2023

list 2 of 3 Israeli air attacks kill at least 12 people in southern Lebanon

list 3 of 3 Israeli air attacks on Lebanon kill at least four

As well as its claims about a network of Hezbollah tunnels, Israel also says the Iranian-backed Lebanese group had underground operations rooms, weapons stores and living quarters for fighters. Despite Israel’s assertion that it has control over the ridge, military operations and attacks are reportedly ongoing.

That is despite the June “ceasefire” Israel agreed with Lebanon, but which is being repeatedly violated.

Political and security analyst, Bassel Doueik, told Al Jazeera that Ali al-Taher is crucial to the outcome of Lebanese-Israeli negotiations.

“Israel has continued to breach the ceasefire daily and the Lebanese government is still trying to negotiate because it doesn’t have any other choice,” Doueik said. “However, if Israel actually occupies the hill, it will give it more of an upper hand in the negotiations because it will be occupying more land.”

Israel and Lebanon began engaging in US-mediated direct negotiations in April, despite Hezbollah’s opposition.

The talks come after nearly three years of Israeli attacks on Lebanon. The latest war began on October 8, 2023, when Hezbollah attacked Israel after the beginning of its genocidal war on Gaza. Israel then unilaterally intensified fighting in September 2024, eventually killing more than 4,000 people in Lebanon and assassinating much of Hezbollah’s military leadership, including longtime Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah. It also invaded southern Lebanon and began demolishing homes and infrastructure throughout the area.

A ceasefire was agreed in November 2024 but Israel violated the agreement more than 10,000 times. Hezbollah resumed its attacks in response to this year’s US-Israeli war with Iran.

Israel responded by re-invading Lebanon and launching attacks across the country, including killing more than 350 people in what became known as Black Wednesday . In late June, a framework agreement was announced between Tel Aviv and Beirut aimed at ending the fighting in Lebanon, launching so-called “pilot zones” where the Lebanese Army would disarm Hezbollah.

Despite the agreement and ongoing negotiations, Israeli forces never stopped attacking Lebanon. Beirut says it continues talks because it is the only option it has.

Israel now says the framework agreement is failing, even if the Lebanese government doesn’t want to give up on it just yet.

“The Lebanese are pushing for pilot zones in areas where the Israelis are currently operating, so they can pull back their troops, but Israel is more interested in pilot zones in areas it is not operating,” Nicholas Blanford, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and author of a book about Hezbollah, told Al Jazeera.

He added that few in Lebanon appear optimistic about the pilot zone plan.

Strategic importance

In recent weeks, Israel has focused many of its attacks on the Qantara mountain range and the Ali al-Taher ridge, where Hezbollah fighters are reported to be.

On Sunday, the Israeli military killed seven people in the southern villages of Arab Salim and Nabatieh al-Fawqa. On Monday, 12 people were killed in Israeli attacks in Kfar Rumman.

Analysts said the ridge has geographic importance to both Hezbollah and Israel.

“The location is of strategic importance to Hezbollah,” Blanford said. “It has dominating views looking west over Nabatieh, dominating views over east over Marjayoun and Khiam to Shebaa, and part of [the occupied] Golan Heights in northern Israel looking south, so it is a strategic area and entirely credible that [Hezbollah] has a massive bunker complex within that hill.”

However, Blanford does not expect the Israelis to attempt to hold Ali al-Taher.

“If the Israelis wanted to keep Ali al-Taher, they would have to seize the high ground to the north and northeast because otherwise it would be vulnerable to attacks by Hezbollah,” he said, recalling a similar dynamic during the Israelis’ 18-year occupation of south Lebanon from 1982-2000. “I’m not sure the Israelis would want to extend that deep, so they would likely dynamite it and pull back their forces to more defensible ground.”

Future of negotiations

Hezbollah continues to oppose direct negotiations with Israeli leaders. It has previously said it prefers indirect talks, similar to how the 2024 ceasefire was arranged.

“The negotiations seemed to have reached an impasse because Lebanon and Israel fundamentally disagree on the implementation of the pilot zones scheme,” David Wood, the International Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Lebanon, told Al Jazeera. “Lebanon argues that Israel has not withdrawn from any areas that it directly occupied, while Israel insists that it will not withdraw until Hezbollah disarms.”

The question now is whether the Israeli advance in Ali al-Taher will give them even more leverage over Lebanon in talks set to resume later this month.

Doueik said that talks were unlikely to change the status quo on the ground, with the Israeli government focused on projecting an image of strength ahead of elections next month.

“The most crucial point in the Lebanese-Israeli negotiations is the upcoming October elections,” he said.

以色列持续不断的空袭给黎巴嫩争取难以实现的和平协议和稳定带来了挑战。

2026年6月14日，从黎巴嫩南部附近的马尔杰尤恩可以看到以色列军方在阿里·塔赫尔山脊上空发射的一枚照明弹。[法新社]

黎巴嫩贝鲁特——周五，以色列声称已对黎巴嫩南部的阿里·塔赫尔山脊建立了作战控制权。分析人士认为，这是以色列打击真主党的一项进展，也可能使以色列在本月晚些时候与黎巴嫩政府的谈判中拥有更大的筹码。

以色列夺取山脊的行动已持续数周，其目标是山脊下方据称是真主党的隧道。以色列军方频繁使用无人机和空袭进行打击。分析人士告诉半岛电视台，这处具有重要战略意义的高地对以色列和真主党都至关重要，因为它俯瞰着包括南部城市纳巴泰在内的周边多个地区。

列表 1/3：自 2023 年以来，以色列对黎巴嫩的袭击已造成近 9000 人死亡

以色列空袭黎巴嫩南部，造成至少12人死亡（共3起，此为第2起）

以色列对黎巴嫩的3次空袭造成至少4人死亡，这是其中3起。

除了声称拥有真主党地道网络外，以色列还表示，这个由伊朗支持的黎巴嫩组织拥有地下作战室、武器库和武装人员住所。尽管以色列坚称其控制着山脊，但据报道，军事行动和袭击仍在继续。

尽管以色列和黎巴嫩在6月份达成了“停火”协议，但该协议却屡遭违反。

政治和安全分析师巴塞尔·杜埃克告诉半岛电视台，阿里·塔赫尔对黎巴嫩-以色列谈判的结果至关重要。

“以色列每天都在违反停火协议，黎巴嫩政府仍在尝试谈判，因为它别无选择，”杜埃克说。“然而，如果以色列真的占领了那座山，它将在谈判中占据更大的优势，因为它将占领更多的土地。”

尽管真主党反对，以色列和黎巴嫩还是在4月份开始在美国的斡旋下进行直接谈判。

此次会谈是在以色列对黎巴嫩发动近三年袭击之后举行的。最新一轮战争始于2023年10月8日，当时真主党在以色列对加沙发动种族灭绝战争后袭击了以色列。随后，以色列于2024年9月单方面加强了战斗，最终导致黎巴嫩境内4000多人丧生，并暗杀了真主党的多名军事领导人，其中包括长期担任总书记的哈桑·纳斯鲁拉。以色列还入侵了黎巴嫩南部，并开始在该地区拆毁房屋和基础设施。

双方于2024年11月达成停火协议，但以色列违反该协议超过1万次。为回应今年美国和以色列对伊朗的战争，真主党恢复了袭击。

以色列随即再次入侵黎巴嫩，并在全国范围内发动袭击，其中包括在被称为“黑色星期三”的事件中造成350多人死亡。6月下旬，特拉维夫和贝鲁特宣布达成一项框架协议，旨在结束黎巴嫩的战事，并设立所谓的“试点区”，由黎巴嫩军队在这些区域解除真主党的武装。

尽管双方达成协议并持续进行谈判，以色列军队从未停止对黎巴嫩的袭击。贝鲁特方面表示，继续谈判是因为它别无选择。

以色列现在表示，该框架协议正在失败，尽管黎巴嫩政府还不想放弃它。

“黎巴嫩人正在推动在以色列目前作战的地区设立试点区，以便撤回他们的军队，但以色列更感兴趣的是在它没有作战的地区设立试点区，”大西洋理事会非常驻高级研究员、著有关于真主党书籍的尼古拉斯·布兰福德告诉半岛电视台。

他还补充说，黎巴嫩很少有人对试点区计划持乐观态度。

战略重要性

最近几周，以色列将许多袭击集中在坎塔拉山脉和阿里·塔赫尔山脊，据报道真主党武装分子在那里活动。

周日，以色列军方在南部村庄阿拉布·萨利姆和纳巴蒂耶·法乌卡杀害了7人。周一，以色列在卡法尔·鲁曼发动袭击，造成12人死亡。

分析人士称，这条山脊对真主党和以色列都具有重要的地理意义。

布兰福德说：“这个地点对真主党具有重要的战略意义。从这里向西可以俯瞰纳巴泰，向东可以俯瞰马尔杰尤恩和希亚姆，远眺谢巴，向南还可以看到以色列北部被占领的戈兰高地的一部分，因此这是一个战略要地，真主党在那座山上拥有庞大的掩体群完全可信。”

然而，布兰福德并不认为以色列人会试图扣押阿里·塔赫尔。

“如果以色列人想保住阿里·塔赫尔，就必须占领北部和东北部的制高点，否则那里很容易受到真主党的攻击，”他说道，并回忆起以色列在1982年至2000年占领黎巴嫩南部18年期间也曾出现过类似的局面。“我不确定以色列人是否愿意深入到那么远的地带，所以他们很可能会炸毁那里，然后把部队撤回更易防守的地带。”

谈判的未来

真主党继续反对与以色列领导人进行直接谈判。此前，真主党曾表示更倾向于间接谈判，类似于2024年停火协议的安排方式。

国际危机组织黎巴嫩问题高级分析师大卫·伍德告诉半岛电视台：“谈判似乎陷入僵局，因为黎巴嫩和以色列在试点区方案的实施上存在根本分歧。黎巴嫩方面认为以色列没有从其直接占领的任何地区撤军，而以色列则坚持，除非真主党解除武装，否则不会撤军。”

现在的问题是，以色列在阿里·塔赫尔取得的进展是否会让他们在本月晚些时候即将恢复的谈判中对黎巴嫩拥有更大的筹码。

杜埃克表示，会谈不太可能改变现状，以色列政府正专注于在下个月的选举前展现强硬形象。

他说：“黎巴嫩和以色列谈判中最关键的一点是即将到来的10月选举。”