‘We just have to bother the crap out of these people’: How the GOP is confronting its voter enthusiasm deficit

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For Republicans, the midterm alarm bells are increasingly coming from inside their house.

In Georgia, Rick Jackson, the GOP nominee for governor, has expressed concerns that rural voters had grown complacent. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis described turnout in his state as underwhelming and said, “Republicans have some work to do.” And in Texas, Bo French, the conservative firebrand running to be the state’s powerful railroad commissioner, has taken to social media to call out Republicans – especially men – in the counties he says are lagging behind Democrats.

“Get off the bench,” French wrote this week . “The other side is showing up.”

Across the country, in blue states and red, in marquee races and down-ballot contests, Republicans are confronting an unsettling reality: Democrats are showing a surge in enthusiasm their own party has struggled to match.

A recent CNN/SSRS survey found 61% of registered voters who are leaning Democrat this year are extremely motivated to vote, up significantly from 34% four years ago . Meanwhile, Republican enthusiasm has barely budged since the last midterm election. CNN/SSRS polls in the battleground states of Texas, Kansas, Michigan and Maine found Democrats hold a significant edge in likely voters that are highly motivated .

Republican voters are also less likely than Democrats to say it matters which party wins the House of Representatives in November, according to Pew Research polls . And while they were more attuned to the election than Democrats four years ago, the sentiments have flipped heading into November.

One Republican National Committee official acknowledged the uphill climb facing the party. The official, who asked not to be named to discuss the midterm strategy, said Republicans have a tougher task than Democrats. They must sell voters on President Donald Trump’s accomplishments amid intensifying economic concerns, while also convincing them a Democratic takeover of Congress would be worse.

“That’s harder than saying, ‘Orange man bad,’” the official said.

Christina Crosby, chairwoman for the local Republican Party in Durham County, North Carolina, said Republicans in Washington haven’t adequately communicated the president’s accomplishments to voters in her state, where a US Senate seat is up for grabs. With just days remaining until the votes are counted, she said the outcome remains “hard to read” but she senses a broader weariness among the public.

“There’s a fatigue across America with this political divide and I feel like there are people on both sides who are saying they’re throwing up their hands at all the texts and ads and saying, ‘I don’t want any more of this,’” she said. “It’s making it harder to get people out to the polls across the board. But the uneducated voter is the most dangerous thing.”

From the moment Trump returned to the White House, Republicans have maneuvered to overcome the historical headwinds that face the party in power and the challenge of keeping his voters engaged without him on the ballot.

Trump’s political operation and Republican fundraising gave the party an unprecedented financial edge over Democrats. Meanwhile, Trump and his advisers ignited a mid-decade redistricting war intended to boost their chances of keeping the House.

But those efforts now confront a political climate far more hostile than Republicans anticipated. An unpopular war, high gas prices, widespread economic unease and Trump’s sinking approval rating have threatened to overwhelm the advantages created by hundreds of millions of dollars of ad spending and a favorable electoral map.

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Perhaps the clearest evidence of the enthusiasm gap presenting itself at the ballot box so far is Democrats’ success turning out voters who might otherwise sit out a midterm election. In Kansas and North Carolina, for example, Democrats have opened large leads among voters who didn’t vote in one or both of the last two elections, according to a CNN analysis of early voting data .

What early voting data is showing ahead of the 2026 midterms

If that advantage holds — far from a guarantee — it could prove a consequential reversal of two years ago when Trump won every battleground state and the popular vote in part by picking up new support from Americans who rarely participate in elections.

Hilario Deleon, chairman of the Republican Party in Milwaukee County, said his organization has spent much of the last two years focused on reaching the new voters that Trump turned out. While he believes they’ve made headway, he also acknowledged that many remain unaware of the stakes this November and why their involvement is even needed.

“Politics is secondary and I don’t blame them for turning on a sports game to get a break from the world,” Deleon said. “It’s not necessarily that they’re angry at the president. But you’re going to find most people just don’t understand why it’s so important to show up in a midterm cycle.”

It’s relatively new for Republicans to have to hound people on their side to cast ballots. Trump’s unique appeal in communities that tend to vote blue or not at all has transformed the party’s coalition, but it has also left Republicans struggling to replicate his success outside of presidential elections. Groups like Turning Point USA , the organization founded by the late conservative activist Charlie Kirk, have recalibrated to create large ballot chasing operations to track down these irregular voters, but it remains a work in progress.

“We’ve had several cycles to learn how to do it and there’s definitely a learning curve,” said Danedri Herbert, the GOP chairwoman in Kansas, the site of an unexpectedly competitive Senate race. “Democrats have been good at that for a long time, but we’re catching up to them.”

The RNC official said the challenge can be as basic as informing voters when the election is taking place.

“We just have to bother the crap out of these people to get them to vote,” the official said. “We’re talking 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 times to get them to action.”

Despite the troubling early indicators, some Republicans see reason for optimism heading into the final days.

Herbert said any angst she felt looking at early voting returns a week ago has largely subsided and given way to confidence that the math is on her side. In Kansas, there are nearly 400,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats and she believes there are already indications they are making their presence felt.

Republican gains in voter registration in recent years, particularly in key battlegrounds, have strengthened the party’s position heading into the midterms , offering a potential counterweight to the Democrats’ enthusiasm advantage.

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“Republicans are coming home, and they’re coming home fast,” she said. “I definitely feel a vibe shift.”

Republicans are also counting on Trump’s aggressive travel schedule to help mobilize their side. For months, Trump has urged Republicans to vote as if he’s on the ballot. (Democrats, for their part, have long argued that Trump also motivates their voters wherever he goes.)

Doug Deeken, chairman of the Wayne County Republican Party in Ohio, said voters in his northeast corner of the state are responding to the message. Trump and Vice President JD Vance have made multiple visits to the state as Republicans face exceptionally competitive races for Senate and governor.

“If the president only had time to visit Michigan and Texas, maybe that would have worried me,” Deeken said. “But they’re spreading the love around.”

Deeken said Republicans in his county are outpacing their 2022 performance. To him, it’s a sign that the polls are missing quiet Republican voters and that conventional wisdom about midterms may not apply to an election as unusual as the second midterm of a norm-busting president serving nonconsecutive terms.

“Every time we think we know how politics works, especially in the era of Donald Trump, it changes,” he said. “People are trying to apply old rules to a new day.”

CNN’s Edward Wu and Ariel Edwards-Levy contributed to this report.

Kent Nishimura/AFP/Getty Images

对共和党人来说，中期选举的警钟越来越来自他们自己的内部。

在佐治亚州，共和党州长候选人里克·杰克逊表达了对农村选民日益懈怠的担忧。佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯则表示，该州的投票率令人失望，并称“共和党人还有很多工作要做”。而在德克萨斯州，竞选该州铁路专员的保守派激进分子博·弗伦奇则在社交媒体上公开批评共和党人，尤其是男性共和党人，称他们在一些县的投票率落后于民主党人。

“别再坐冷板凳了，”弗伦奇本周写道。“对方正在积极行动。”

在全国各地，无论是在民主党占优势的州还是在共和党占优势的州，无论是在备受瞩目的选举还是在地方选举中，共和党人都面临着一个令人不安的现实：民主党人展现出的热情高涨，是他们自己的政党难以企及的。

CNN/SSRS最近的一项调查发现，今年倾向于民主党的已登记选民中，有61%的人投票积极性极高，较四年前的34%显著上升。与此同时，共和党的热情自上次中期选举以来几乎没有变化。CNN/SSRS在德克萨斯州、堪萨斯州、密歇根州和缅因州等关键摇摆州的民调显示，在积极性高的选民中，民主党人拥有显著优势。

皮尤研究中心的民调显示，共和党选民比民主党选民更不认为11月哪个党派赢得众议院至关重要。虽然四年前共和党选民比民主党选民更关注选举，但临近11月，他们的态度已经发生了转变。

一位共和党全国委员会官员承认，该党面临着艰巨的挑战。这位官员要求匿名讨论中期选举策略，他表示，共和党人的任务比民主党人更为艰巨。他们必须在经济形势日益严峻的情况下，向选民推销唐纳德·特朗普总统的政绩，同时还要让选民相信，如果民主党掌控国会，情况会更糟。

“这比说‘橙色人坏’要难得多，”这位官员说。

北卡罗来纳州达勒姆县共和党主席克里斯蒂娜·克罗斯比表示，华盛顿的共和党人没有充分向她所在州的选民宣传总统的政绩，而该州即将举行参议院席位的选举。距离计票结束仅剩几天，她说选举结果仍然“难以预测”，但她感觉到公众普遍感到疲惫。

“全美上下都对这种政治分裂感到厌倦，我觉得双方都有人对铺天盖地的短信和广告感到厌烦，纷纷表示‘我不想再看到这些了’，”她说。“这使得动员选民投票变得更加困难。但缺乏政治素养的选民才是最危险的。”

自从特朗普重返白宫以来，共和党人就一直在想方设法克服执政党面临的历史性逆风，以及如何在特朗普本人不参选的情况下保持其选民的参与度。

特朗普的政治运作和共和党的筹款活动使该党在财政上获得了前所未有的优势，远胜于民主党。与此同时，特朗普及其顾问挑起了一场旨在提高共和党保住众议院控制权的选区重划之战。

但如今，这些努力面临着比共和党人预期的更为敌对的政治环境。一场不得人心的战争、高企的油价、普遍的经济动荡以及特朗普不断下滑的支持率，都可能抵消数亿美元的广告投入和有利的选区划分所带来的优势。

Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

或许迄今为止，选民热情差距最明显的证据就是民主党成功地动员了那些原本可能不会参加中期选举的选民。例如，根据CNN对提前投票数据的分析，在堪萨斯州和北卡罗来纳州，民主党在那些没有参加过前两次或两次选举的选民中取得了大幅领先。

2026年中期选举前的提前投票数据显示了什么？

如果这一优势能够保持下去——虽然这远非必然——那么这可能会对两年前的情况产生重大逆转。当时，特朗普赢得了所有摇摆州和普选，部分原因是他获得了很少参与选举的美国人的新支持。

密尔沃基县共和党主席希拉里奥·德莱昂表示，过去两年，他的组织一直致力于争取特朗普大选后涌现的新选民。他认为他们已经取得了一些进展，但也承认许多人仍然不了解今年11月大选的重要性，以及他们为何需要参与其中。

“政治是次要的，我不怪他们打开电视看体育比赛来放松一下，逃离现实世界，”德莱昂说。“这不一定是因为他们生总统的气。但你会发现，大多数人根本不明白为什么在中期选举中投票如此重要。”

对共和党人来说，不得不费尽心思争取支持者投票，这还是相对较新的情况。特朗普在那些倾向于投民主党或根本不投票的社区中拥有独特的号召力，这改变了共和党的联盟格局，但也使得共和党难以在总统选举之外复制他的成功。像“美国转折点”（Turning Point USA）这样的组织——该组织由已故保守派活动家查理·柯克（Charlie Kirk）创立——已经调整策略，开展大规模的“追票行动”，以追踪这些不常投票的选民，但这仍然是一项正在进行中的工作。

“我们已经经历了几个选举周期来学习如何做到这一点，这确实需要一个学习过程，”堪萨斯州共和党主席丹妮德里·赫伯特说道。堪萨斯州的参议院选举竞争异常激烈。“民主党人在这方面一直做得很好，但我们正在迎头赶上。”

共和党全国委员会官员表示，挑战可能非常基础，例如如何告知选民选举何时举行。

“我们必须不停地催促这些人去投票，”这位官员说。“我们得跟他们说五遍、六遍、七遍、八遍、九遍、十遍，才能让他们行动起来。”

尽管早期迹象令人担忧，但一些共和党人认为，在最后几天到来之际，仍有理由保持乐观。

赫伯特表示，一周前查看提前投票结果时她感到的焦虑已经基本消散，取而代之的是她对形势的信心。在堪萨斯州，注册共和党选民比民主党选民多出近40万人，她认为种种迹象表明，共和党选民正在发挥他们的影响力。

近年来，共和党在选民登记方面取得进展，尤其是在关键的摇摆州，这加强了该党在中期选举中的地位，有可能抵消民主党的热情优势。

艾莉森·乔伊斯/法新社/盖蒂图片社

“共和党人正在回归，而且回归速度很快，”她说。“我确实感觉到了一种氛围的转变。”

共和党人也指望特朗普积极的出行安排能帮助他们动员支持者。几个月来，特朗普一直敦促共和党人像他本人参选一样去投票。（而民主党人则一直认为，特朗普无论走到哪里都能激励他们的选民。）

俄亥俄州韦恩县共和党主席道格·迪肯表示，他所在的州东北部地区的选民对这一信息做出了积极回应。特朗普总统和副总统JD·万斯已多次访问俄亥俄州，共和党在参议院和州长选举中面临着异常激烈的竞争。

“如果总统只有时间访问密歇根州和德克萨斯州，那或许会让我担心，”迪肯说。“但他们把爱心带到了各地。”

迪肯表示，他所在县的共和党选民支持率已经超过了2022年的表现。他认为，这表明民调遗漏了那些不常投票的共和党选民，而且关于中期选举的传统观点可能并不适用于像这位打破常规、任期不连续的总统的第二次中期选举这样特殊的选举。

他说：“每当我们以为自己了解政治运作方式时，尤其是在唐纳德·特朗普时代，情况都会发生变化。人们试图将旧规则套用到新时代。”

CNN的Edward Wu和Ariel Edwards-Levy对本报道亦有贡献。