Canada’s economic break with the US in 5 charts

For decades, the United States and Canada worked to build one of the world’s closest economic partnerships, with supply chains, businesses and trade increasingly intertwined.

But now, with the two countries in the thick of a trade war, Canada is taking a dramatic step to reduce its reliance on the United States. It is forging closer economic ties with the European Union and is set to become its first-ever “associate member.”

“Economic integration is now being weaponized, and tariffs are being used as a means of pressure,” Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney told EU lawmakers last month in a parliamentary address.

Carney was referring to President Donald Trump’s ramped-up trade war with Canada. Over the summer Trump levied 50% tariffs on around $20 billion worth of Canadian goods and, in some cases, imposing outright import bans. Canada matched those duties and has vowed to match any future tariffs. Forthcoming data is likely to show trade between the two nations fell as a result.

It’s uncertain how the EU-Canada partnership could look and whether it will even come to fruition at all, as officials from Germany and France, key EU member states, have voiced opposition. Carney has also been met with backlash from Canadian officials who feel it compromises Canada’s sovereignty.

That hasn’t stopped Carney and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. On Thursday they invited other countries to join in the initiative they dubbed “Alliance for the Future.”

“In a world of growing rivalries, sovereignty and independence are no longer just the freedom to act alone — it is the capacity to act together,” von der Leyen said in an address Thursday at this week’s two-day Canada-EU summit in Montreal.

“And this is why we will build an alliance for the future,” she said. “And we start with Canada.”

Few details have been shared about what Canada’s association membership with the EU could look like, though Carney said earlier this week he intends to use the summit as an opportunity to further nail down the next steps.

And while trade ruptures with the US were the impetus for Carney’s push with the EU, the impact of the trade war with the US has not been limited to trade. From vacations to investments, here’s how the fallout is showing up across both economies.

While Trump’s tariffs on Canadian goods and Carney’s retaliatory measures against American goods over the summer likely weighed on trade, they’d represent just the latest chapter in a broader decline in trade between the two countries.

The total value of trade between the US and Canada has fallen since 2022. Of those three years, the largest annual drop came last year, when Trump imposed 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum, two of the top goods the US imports from Canada.

Most of Canada’s exports — historically between 70% and 80% — go to the US.

While the US remains Canada’s largest export market by far, its share of Canadian exports has fallen sharply since Trump returned to office, reflecting heightened trade uncertainty, according to a report published last year by Global Affairs Canada’s Office of the Chief Economist.

Over this period, Canada significantly increased its exports to Europe and Central Asia as it looked to wean itself off its reliance on the US market.

Carney, in a statement Thursday unveiling an initiative titled “The Plan for a Stronger Canada,” said that the shift is intended “to create greater security and prosperity for Canadians.”

In addition to trade, the effort is aimed at strengthening national defense and boosting public safety.

Alcohol accounts for a relatively small share of trade between the two countries, but it has become one of the most visible symbols of their deteriorating economic relationship.

In March 2025, provincial liquor boards across Canada pulled American products from their shelves. Customers visiting the government-run liquor stores were met with empty shelves and “BUY CANADIAN INSTEAD” signs.

The fallout showed up immediately in trade data, with US alcohol exports to Canada plunging and remaining well below previous levels.

American spirits were hit particularly hard. Exports to Canada fell to a record low of $9.7 million in the second quarter of 2025 before rebounding to more than $20 million in each of the third and fourth quarters, according to the Distilled Spirits Council.

The retaliation has since gone both ways. Last month, Trump imposed a ban on most Canadian liquor shipped to the US.

Trump has repeatedly floated the idea of making Canada the 51st state, drawing the ire of many Canadians. He further inflamed tensions recently by renaming Lake Ontario “Lake Canada.”

Canadians’ disdain for Trump has been apparent in travel data.

Canadian visits to the US peaked at nearly 80 million in the early 1990s before settling at around 40 million a year in subsequent decades. In 2025, visits to the US fell to 29.1 million — the lowest level outside the pandemic era since records began in 1972, according to Statistics Canada.

The decline is taking a bite out of US businesses. Canadians spent $16.1 billion in the US in 2024, according to Statistics Canada, but that fell to $13.4 billion in 2025, a $2.7 billion drop in a single year.

After pouring $78.1 billion CAD (around $56 billion USD) into US stocks in the first half of 2026, Canadian investors abruptly reversed course in July, selling a record $31 billion CAD (around $22 billion USD) according to Statistics Canada.

The sell-off was concentrated in shares of large US technology companies. It came as the S&P 500 edged lower in July after strong gains earlier in the year.

几十年来，美国和加拿大致力于建立世界上最紧密的经济伙伴关系之一，供应链、企业和贸易日益交织在一起。

但现在，正值中美两国深陷贸易战之际，加拿大正采取一项重大举措来减少对美国的依赖。它正在与欧盟建立更紧密的经济联系，并将成为欧盟有史以来第一个“联系成员国”。

“经济一体化现在正被武器化，关税正被用作施压手段，”加拿大总理马克·卡尼上个月在议会发表讲话时告诉欧盟议员。

卡尼指的是特朗普总统升级的与加拿大的贸易战。今年夏天，特朗普对价值约200亿美元的加拿大商品加征了50%的关税，并在某些情况下实施了直接进口禁令。加拿大采取了对等关税措施，并誓言将对任何未来的关税措施予以对等。即将公布的数据可能显示，两国之间的贸易额因此有所下降。

欧盟与加拿大的伙伴关系究竟会如何发展，甚至能否最终达成，目前尚不明朗，因为来自欧盟关键成员国德国和法国的官员都已表示反对。卡尼也遭到了加拿大官员的强烈反对，他们认为此举会损害加拿大的主权。

但这并没有阻止卡尼和欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩。周四，他们邀请其他国家加入他们称之为“未来联盟”的倡议。

“在一个竞争日益激烈的世界里，主权和独立不再仅仅是单独行动的自由，而是共同行动的能力，”冯德莱恩在周四于蒙特利尔举行的为期两天的加拿大-欧盟峰会上发表讲话时说。

“这就是为什么我们要建立一个面向未来的联盟，”她说。“而我们首先要从加拿大开始。”

关于加拿大与欧盟的联系国成员关系可能如何，目前还没有透露太多细节。不过，卡尼本周早些时候表示，他打算利用此次峰会的机会，进一步敲定下一步措施。

尽管与美国的贸易摩擦是卡尼推动欧盟关系缓和的直接原因，但这场贸易战的影响远不止于贸易领域。从度假到投资，这场贸易战的余波正在对英欧两国经济产生深远的影响。

虽然特朗普对加拿大商品征收关税以及卡尼在夏季对美国商品采取的报复措施可能对贸易造成了影响，但这只是两国贸易整体下滑的最新篇章。

自 2022 年以来，美国和加拿大之间的贸易总额有所下降。在这三年中，年度降幅最大的是去年，当时特朗普对钢铁和铝（美国从加拿大进口的两大商品）征收了 50% 的关税。

加拿大的大部分出口产品——历史上占比在 70% 到 80% 之间——都销往美国。

尽管美国仍然是加拿大最大的出口市场，但自特朗普重返政坛以来，美国在加拿大出口中所占的份额已大幅下降，这反映出贸易不确定性加剧。加拿大全球事务部首席经济学家办公室去年发布的一份报告如此表示。

在此期间，加拿大大幅增加了对欧洲和中亚的出口，以期摆脱对美国市场的依赖。

卡尼周四发表声明，公布了一项名为“建设更强大加拿大的计划”的倡议，称此举旨在“为加拿大人创造更大的安全和繁荣”。

除了贸易之外，这项努力还旨在加强国防和提升公共安全。

酒精在两国贸易中所占比例相对较小，但它已成为两国经济关系恶化的最明显象征之一。

2025年3月，加拿大各省的酒类管理机构将美国产品下架。顾客前往政府运营的酒类商店时，发现货架空空如也，到处都贴着“请购买加拿大产品”的标语。

贸易数据立即反映了疫情的影响，美国对加拿大的酒精出口大幅下降，并远低于之前的水平。

美国烈酒受到的冲击尤为严重。据美国蒸馏酒协会称，2025年第二季度，美国对加拿大的出口额跌至历史新低970万美元，之后在第三季度和第四季度均反弹至2000万美元以上。

此后双方都采取了报复措施。上个月，特朗普禁止大部分加拿大酒类进口到美国。

特朗普曾多次提出将加拿大变成美国第51个州的想法，这激怒了许多加拿大人。他最近将安大略湖更名为“加拿大湖”，进一步加剧了紧张局势。

从旅行数据中可以明显看出加拿大人对特朗普的厌恶。

加拿大人赴美旅游人数在上世纪90年代初达到近8000万人次的峰值，随后几十年稳定在每年4000万人次左右。据加拿大统计局的数据，到2025年，赴美旅游人数将降至2910万人次，这是自1972年有记录以来，除疫情爆发期外的最低水平。

这一下滑趋势正在对美国企业造成冲击。据加拿大统计局的数据，2024年加拿大人在美国的消费额为161亿美元，但到2025年将降至134亿美元，一年内减少了27亿美元。

2026 年上半年，加拿大投资者向美国股市投入了 781 亿加元（约合 560 亿美元），但据加拿大统计局的数据显示，7 月份他们突然改变策略，抛售了创纪录的 310 亿加元（约合 220 亿美元）股票。

此次抛售主要集中在美国大型科技公司的股票上。此前，标普500指数在今年早些时候强劲上涨后，7月份小幅走低。