The domestic armed threat facing Iran

External support for ethnic armed groups poses an escalating security threat to Iran, experts and state officials warn.

Members of Komala of the Toilers of Kurdistan, a Kurdish-Iranian dissident group, are seen at their military bases hidden among the mountains on March 12, 2026 in Khalifan, Erbil Province, Iraq [File: Sedat Suna/Getty Images]

Iranian authorities have repeatedly publicised arrests and clashes with small armed cells inside the country, or skirmishes with armed groups along land borders, particularly in the lead-up to and during the war with Israel and the United States.

They have endeavoured to frame the war as a national security struggle while sending a message of control and deterrence to audiences inside the country and abroad.

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In one of the latest instances, state media said on Sunday that members of an eight-member network allegedly affiliated with “anti-revolutionary” and “pro-monarchy” groups were arrested.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in the southern province of Fars accused those arrested of using Molotov cocktails and burning tyres during nationwide protests in January.

The leaders of Iran’s Islamic Republic have in recent weeks also expressed concern about more potential protests as public discontent rises amid deteriorating economic conditions.

Why the focus on ‘monarchists’?

During Iran’s January protests and on social media, a number of Iranians have expressed support for the return of the country’s monarchy, which was overthrown in the 1979 Islamic revolution.

Reza Pahlavi, the foreign-based son of Iran’s last shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, has been a leading opponent of the country’s government, and in January called on Iranians to join nationwide strikes and protests. Thousands are believed to have been killed during the unrest.

But even though there are instances of chanting in support of Pahlavi in Iran, there are currently no major organised pro-monarchy armed groups operating inside the country.

And while multiple nationwide demonstrations have swept Iran in recent years, they have largely been rooted in protesting economic grievances and repression in the country, rather than support for the monarchy.

US President Donald Trump, as well as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, did openly discuss the goal of overthrowing the Iranian state during the opening months of the war, which began in late February. Calls for the monarchy to replace the Islamic Republic have been particularly prominent in demonstrations outside of Iran.

The Iranian government has since then announced a large number of arrests of people it says are supporters of the monarchy.

That has included 111 so-called “monarchist cells” arrested across 26 provinces , as announced on March 18 by the Intelligence Ministry.

Iranian authorities consider the January protests a “coup” orchestrated by armed agents of the US and Israel, including pro-monarchists.

The United Nations and international rights groups have condemned state forces for the “brutality” shown during the crackdown on protesters.

The judiciary has executed dozens of prisoners since the start of the war, including some of those who protested in January. Numerous students, artists, businesspeople, journalists, healthcare workers and others have also been arrested over recent months for acts perceived by the authorities to be against national security.

What are the main armed groups in Iran?

Kurdish fighters active close to Iran’s western borders with Iraq are the country’s largest non-state armed threat.

Multiple groups, designated as “terrorist” outfits by Iranian authorities, have been based in the semiautonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq for years.

Iran’s military forces have attacked bases operated by these groups in Iraq in recent years, while also pursuing security deals with the Iraqi government to contain them.

At the start of this year’s war, the Kurdish armed groups were considered by the Trump administration to lead a limited ground operation in western Iran to complement extensive air strikes by US and Israeli fighter jets and warships.

The Reuters news agency reported in early March that roughly 5,000-8,000 Iranian Kurdish fighters from groups including the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), and Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK) were preparing for a potential cross-border operation and had held discussions with US and Israeli representatives.

But the groups said they lacked sufficient weaponry and did not receive a clear signal from Washington to initiate the operation. The plan was not set into motion, and by April the IRGC had sent more troops to the border provinces.

Trump later repeatedly claimed that he had supplied arms to Kurdish forces, but that they had kept the weapons for themselves .

Aside from the Kurdish forces, Iran’s disenfranchised and restive southeastern border areas are also home to separatist Baloch fighters.

In late August, security forces said they had broken up a cell belonging to Jaish al-Adl, the most prominent of the Baloch armed groups. One rebel fighter was reported to have been killed, six arrested, and rifles, grenade launchers and explosives seized. But sporadic attacks from the group have been ongoing, at times killing police officers and IRGC figures.

Iranian authorities have said they will continue to bolster border control in order to limit exposure to armed groups amid the war.

Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, said that external support for the Kurdish and Baloch rebel groups could increase the security challenge facing the authorities.

“The Iranian state might see any signs of increased external support for ethnic militants to be of an existential kind this time around due to the war situation,” he told Al Jazeera.

“I only see ethnic militant groups as possibly decisive [in the war] if they are part of a broader externally-funded push to pressure the regime in Tehran, which the Islamic Republic is already anticipating and calls a foreign-led hybrid-war campaign,” Vatanka added.

For his part, Trita Parsi, the Quincy Institute’s co-founder, said that while separatist militias don’t pose an existential threat to the government, they “may prove tremendously problematic for Tehran if the war with the US escalates after the mid-terms and the US decides, for instance, to deploy ground troops”

“If Trump decides to accept military risks after the midterms that he earlier eschewed, such as deploying ground troops, then it is highly conceivable that the US will seek to use armed militias inside the country,” Parsi added.

Washington encourages internal pressure

During the January protests, Trump and other US officials backed Iranian protesters and said they should continue to act with the goal of overthrowing the Islamic Republic.

Similar rhetoric from Washington has been heard since the start of the war.

Last week, Trump discussed the possibility that the pressure from war, sanctions and a naval blockade of Iran’s southern ports could ultimately lead to an internal uprising, or even the fall of the establishment.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the pressure could prompt Iranians to take to the streets again, or even create divisions within the IRGC.

“Maybe the people will rise up,” he said. “There is 100 percent inflation, queues, the military isn’t getting paid, [and] the central bank governor was in a panic last week.”

专家和政府官员警告说，外部对民族武装团体的支持对伊朗构成日益严重的安全威胁。

2026年3月12日，在伊拉克埃尔比勒省哈利凡，库尔德斯坦劳动者协会（一个库尔德裔伊朗异议组织）的成员出现在他们隐藏在山中的军事基地。[图片：Sedat Suna/Getty Images]

伊朗当局多次公开宣布在国内逮捕和与小型武装组织发生冲突，或在陆地边界沿线与武装团体发生小规模冲突，尤其是在与以色列和美国开战之前和期间。

他们努力将这场战争描绘成一场国家安全斗争，同时向国内外受众传递控制和威慑的信息。

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在最近的一起事件中，官方媒体周日报道称，一个由八名成员组成的网络被指控与“反革命”和“亲君主制”团体有关联，该网络成员已被逮捕。

伊朗南部法尔斯省的伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）指控被捕者在1月份全国范围内的抗议活动中使用燃烧弹和焚烧轮胎。

近几周来，随着经济状况恶化，民众不满情绪日益高涨，伊朗伊斯兰共和国领导人也对可能发生的更多抗议活动表示担忧。

为什么重点关注“君主主义者”？

在伊朗一月份的抗议活动期间以及在社交媒体上，许多伊朗人表达了对恢复该国君主制的支持，该君主制在 1979 年伊斯兰革命中被推翻。

伊朗末代国王穆罕默德·礼萨·巴列维之子、旅居海外的礼萨·巴列维一直是伊朗政府的主要反对者。今年1月，他呼吁伊朗民众参与全国范围的罢工和抗议活动。据信，动乱期间有数千人丧生。

尽管伊朗境内不时出现支持巴列维的口号，但目前该国境内并没有任何大型的、有组织的亲君主制武装团体在活动。

虽然近年来伊朗爆发了多次全国性示威游行，但这些游行大多是抗议该国的经济不满和镇压，而不是支持君主制。

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普和以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡在2月底爆发的战争初期，都曾公开讨论过推翻伊朗政权的目标。在伊朗境外的示威活动中，要求以君主制取代伊斯兰共和国的呼声尤为突出。

此后，伊朗政府宣布逮捕了大量据称是君主制支持者的人。

据情报部 3 月 18 日宣布，其中包括在 26 个省份逮捕了 111 个所谓的“君主主义小组”。

伊朗当局认为一月份的抗议活动是由美国和以色列的武装人员（包括亲君主主义者）策划的“政变”。

联合国和国际人权组织谴责国家军队在镇压抗议者期间表现出的“残暴”。

自战争爆发以来，司法部门已处决了数十名囚犯，其中包括一些参加过一月份抗议活动的人。近几个月来，还有许多学生、艺术家、商人、记者、医护人员和其他人士因被当局认为危害国家安全的行为而被捕。

伊朗的主要武装团体有哪些？

活跃在伊朗西部与伊拉克接壤地区的库尔德武装是该国最大的非国家武装威胁。

多年来，多个被伊朗当局认定为“恐怖组织”的团体一直以伊拉克北部半自治的库尔德地区为据点。

近年来，伊朗军队袭击了这些组织在伊拉克境内的基地，同时还与伊拉克政府寻求安全协议以遏制这些组织。

在今年战争爆发之初，特朗普政府曾考虑让库尔德武装团体在伊朗西部开展有限的地面行动，以配合美国和以色列战斗机和军舰的大规模空袭。

路透社3月初报道称，来自库尔德斯坦自由生活党（PJAK）、伊朗库尔德斯坦民主党（PDKI）和库尔德斯坦自由党（PAK）等组织的约5000至8000名伊朗库尔德武装人员正在准备进行潜在的跨境行动，并已与美国和以色列代表进行了讨论。

但这些组织表示他们缺乏足够的武器装备，也没有收到来自华盛顿的明确行动指令。该计划未能实施，到4月份，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队已向边境省份增派了更多部队。

特朗普后来多次声称他曾向库尔德武装提供武器，但库尔德武装却将这些武器据为己有。

除了库尔德武装外，伊朗东南部边境地区也是分离主义俾路支武装分子的家园，这些地区民众缺乏政治权利，局势动荡不安。

8月下旬，安全部队称他们捣毁了俾路支武装组织中最主要的“正义军”（Jaish al-Adl）的一个小组。据报道，一名叛军武装分子被击毙，六人被捕，并缴获了步枪、榴弹发射器和爆炸物。但该组织仍不时发动零星袭击，有时造成警察和伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队成员伤亡。

伊朗当局表示，他们将继续加强边境管控，以减少战争期间与武装团体接触的机会。

华盛顿中东研究所高级研究员亚历克斯·瓦坦卡表示，外部对库尔德人和俾路支叛军的支持可能会加剧当局面临的安全挑战。

“鉴于当前的战争形势，伊朗政府可能会将任何增加对民族武装分子的外部支持视为关乎自身存亡的威胁。”他告诉半岛电视台。

瓦坦卡补充说：“我认为，只有当民族武装组织参与到一场更广泛的、由外部资助的、旨在向德黑兰政权施压的行动中时，它们才有可能在战争中发挥决定性作用。而伊朗伊斯兰共和国已经预料到了这一点，并称之为一场由外国领导的混合战争。”

昆西研究所联合创始人特里塔·帕尔西表示，虽然分离主义民兵组织不会对政府构成生存威胁，但“如果中期选举后与美国的战争升级，例如美国决定部署地面部队，那么这些组织可能会给德黑兰带来巨大的问题”。

帕尔西补充说：“如果特朗普在中期选举后决定承担他之前回避的军事风险，例如部署地面部队，那么美国很可能会寻求在国内使用武装民兵。”

华盛顿鼓励内部压力

在1月份的抗议活动中，特朗普和其他美国官员支持伊朗抗议者，并表示他们应该继续采取行动，以推翻伊朗伊斯兰共和国。

自战争开始以来，华盛顿方面就一直发表类似的言论。

上周，特朗普讨论了战争、制裁和对伊朗南部港口的海上封锁所带来的压力最终可能导致伊朗内部起义，甚至导致政权垮台的可能性。

美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，这种压力可能会促使伊朗人再次走上街头，甚至可能导致伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队内部出现分裂。

“也许民众会起来反抗，”他说。“通货膨胀率高达100%，到处都是排队的人，军人领不到工资，而且央行行长上周都惊慌失措。”