Is Hong Kong really over? And why Beijing should beware a Trump deal

Asian Insider Podcast

Is Hong Kong really over? Or has US economist Stephen Roach changed his mind about Hong Kong’s survival and identity?

Published Oct 30, 2026, 06:00 PM

Updated Oct 30, 2026, 06:00 PM

Synopsis: Every month, The Straits Times gets its US Bureau Chief to analyse the hottest political and geopolitical talking points.

In this episode, US Bureau Chief Bhagyashree Garekar chats with Dr Stephen Roach, a prominent economist with expertise on Asia.

He spent three decades at global investment bank Morgan Stanley, serving as the firm’s chief economist and later as chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia. He is currently a Senior Fellow at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center.

In this wide-ranging conversation, he says the “unfriendly takeover” by mainland Chinese has changed the character of Hong Kong dramatically. This has left the market-based city - once idolised by iconic American economist Milton Friedman - in tatters, he adds.

While that might drive his critics crazy, the idea that his remarks are rooted in any bias against Hong Kong is “absolutely ludicrous,” he insists.

Roach also has a word of caution for China’s President Xi Jinping, who made a state visit to Washington for a summit with US President Donald Trump in September 2026.

The concept currently favoured by both the US and China to define their relationship - constructive, strategic stability - is also a bit of a mirage, he says. “There’s nothing strategic about it, the best I think the Chinese can hope for would be stability,” he adds.

Roach is not among those anticipating a turning of the page with the Nov 3 midterm elections, even if the Democrats seize a majority in the Congress.

Roach also takes an axe to Trump’s frequent assertions of America being the “hottest economy”. “He calls it an “exaggeration” that also reflects the poor state of growth elsewhere in the world.

But a Great Depression-scale collapse is not in the cards, according to him. “I don’t think we’re gonna have a replay of the 1930s-styled bank-driven collapse,” he says.

Highlights (click/tap above):

00:50 “Hong Kong is over?”: Stephen Roach clarifies the controversial headline

4:40 Is Roach biased against Hong Kong?

6:40 What’s not going right between the US and China?

7:40 Why Trump’s “shallow thinking” on AI hurts

14:00 Will a strong Democratic show in midterms elections constrain Trump?

18:10 Is Trump’s claim of a “golden age” for America true?

24:20 As the 100th anniversary of the Great Depression nears, could there be a repeat?

30:00 Will the US dollar primacy be seriously challenged?

33:00 When do you see China coming out of the slowdown?

38:20 Will the Indian economy continue to over-promise and under-deliver?

Read Bhagyashree Garekar’s articles: https://str.sg/whNo

Bhagyashree Garekar’s LinkedIn: https://str.sg/gD6E

Host: Bhagyashree Garekar ( bhagya@sph.com.sg )

Produced and edited by: Fa’izah Sani

Executive producer: Ernest Luis

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ST Current Affairs Podcast

亚洲内幕播客

香港真的完了吗？还是美国经济学家史蒂芬·罗奇改变了对香港生存和身份的看法？

发布于2026年10月30日下午6:00

更新于2026年10月30日下午6:00

概要：每个月，《海峡时报》都会邀请其美国分社社长分析最热门的政治和地缘政治话题。

在本期节目中，美国分社社长 Bhagyashree Garekar 与亚洲问题专家、著名经济学家 Stephen Roach 博士进行了对话。

他曾在全球投资银行摩根士丹利工作三十年，担任过公司首席经济学家，后任摩根士丹利亚洲区主席。目前，他是耶鲁大学法学院保罗·蔡中国中心的资深研究员。

在这次内容广泛的对话中，他表示，中国大陆的“不友好接管”已经彻底改变了香港的性质。他补充说，这使得这座曾经被美国著名经济学家米尔顿·弗里德曼奉为圭臬的市场经济城市，如今已支离破碎。

他坚称，虽然这可能会让他的批评者抓狂，但认为他的言论源于对香港的任何偏见的想法是“绝对荒谬的”。

罗奇还对中国国家主席习近平提出了警告，习近平于 2026 年 9 月对华盛顿进行国事访问，与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普举行峰会。

他表示，目前美中两国都倾向于用“建设性战略稳定”来定义彼此关系，但这其实也只是一种幻象。“这其中根本没有任何战略意义，我认为中国人所能期望的最好结果也只是稳定而已。”他补充道。

罗奇并不认为11月3日的中期选举会带来翻天覆地的变化，即便民主党在国会中夺取多数席位。

罗奇还猛烈抨击了特朗普经常声称美国是“最火热的经济体”的说法。他称这种说法是“夸大其词”，也反映了世界其他地区经济增长乏力的现状。

但他认为，不会出现像大萧条时期那样规模的经济崩溃。“我不认为我们会重蹈20世纪30年代银行主导的经济崩溃的覆辙，”他说。

亮点（点击/轻触上方）：

00:50 “香港结束了吗？”：斯蒂芬·罗奇澄清争议性标题

4:40 Roach 对香港有偏见吗？

6:40 中美之间到底出了什么问题？

7:40 特朗普对人工智能的“浅薄思维”为何有害

14:00 民主党在中期选举中的强劲表现能否制约特朗普？

18:10 特朗普声称美国正处于“黄金时代”，这是真的吗？

24:20 大萧条100周年纪念日临近，会不会重演？

30:00 美元的霸主地位会受到严重挑战吗？

33:00 你认为中国何时才能走出经济放缓的局面？

38:20 印度经济是否会继续过度承诺而无法兑现？

阅读 Bhagyashree Garekar 的文章：https://str.sg/whNo

Bhagyashree Garekar 的 LinkedIn：https://str.sg/gD6E

主持人：Bhagyashree Garekar ( bhagya@sph.com.sg )

制作及剪辑：法伊扎·萨尼

执行制片人：欧内斯特·路易斯

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