Why Trump’s favorite CNN video of Harry Enten is ‘not the full story’

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CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten has become an unexpected star at President Donald Trump’s rallies this fall.

In state after state, Trump has shown a montage of Enten’s appearances on CNN, highlighting moments when Enten has highlighted the president’s enduring popularity among self-professed MAGA Republicans.

The CNN video clips have been played at rallies at least 16 times during this month’s midterm blitz. Trump often stands and watches the clips on a giant screen while rallygoers cheer Enten’s remarks. Sometimes Trump says “wow” or “thank you, CNN” after the montage is played.

But the clips are devoid of any context and can easily leave viewers with a misimpression of Trump’s real political standing. So I asked Enten about the montage and its relevance to the impending midterm election. Our conversation has been lightly edited for length and clarity.

Stelter: You’re the data guy, so let’s start with some numbers: Roughly how many TV segments and videos have you made about the midterms this year?

Enten: Oh my… well, let’s think about this… There have been over 300 days in 2026 so far… I am on TV pretty much every day, including weekends. I’ve taken off some time… but I think 300 segments is a fair starting point.

It may be more! Maybe much more, but let’s play it conservatively.

Stelter: Clearly the president has been watching some of those segments. Last year, he name-checked you but butchered your name. This year, he’s been pronouncing it correctly. He likes to say “even CNN” is reporting something flattering about him, and then he’ll invoke you. Is that surreal for you?

Enten: Well, if you had told me a decade ago that I would a) be on CNN, and b) the president of the United States would be playing clips of mine at his rallies… I don’t think I would have bought it for a minute. I’d put the chance at 1 in a million… and that may have been high.

Stelter: So about those clips: Why does he keep playing them?

Enten: Because he believes it shows him to be popular. The Trump brand is all about winning, and those clips, in his mind, show him winning.

Stelter: What are you saying in the clips?

Enten: Well, I believe there are two clips he plays… Maybe three. Gotta be honest, I spend my free time watching episodes of “Blossom.” But one, I think, is a clip about how approval with MAGA is basically matching his support he received from them in 2024. Another is support for GOP House candidates is basically matching Trump’s support from 2024. The third is how, among the GOP, he is by far the most admired president . He beats out Reagan and Lincoln.

Stelter: Everything you said in those clips was true at the time, of course. But is some of the info outdated at this point?

Enten: I haven’t seen another “most admired” poll, but I bet Trump still leads that handily.

He’s slightly lower with the MAGA GOP than he was, but the MAGA GOP support for congressional GOP candidates is the same, if not a little higher. That is per Fox News polling.

Of course, MAGA GOP is just a portion of the electorate.

Stelter: That’s really the key, right? Trump keeps conflating “MAGA Republicans” with all Republicans. What proportion of Republicans don’t ID as MAGA?

Enten: It depends on the poll. But I think it’s safe to say a sizable minority do not identify as MAGA. Among non-MAGA GOP, Trump is actually underwater in some polls.

Stelter: Is “MAGA Republican” even a useful category? Isn’t it just like measuring Trump’s approval rating?

Enten: Want to know the story about why I started pulling the metric?

Enten: So the reason, as I recall, was that in the early days of the Iran War, there was all this talk about how MAGA was infighting because of the war. This got me thinking, “Is this actually true?” There really wasn’t.

MAGA is a self-defined category, right? But the people who were opting in loved Trump. I think it’s useful insofar as helping us understand MAGA essentially equals Trump. If that ever changes, it would be interesting.

Stelter: Agreed. Now you’re on TV every day previewing the midterms, talking about many other metrics. Trump doesn’t promote those segments for obvious reasons: You’re showing that his party is in big trouble, electorally speaking. Does that have a lot to do with MAGA GOP versus non-MAGA GOP?

Enten: There are two reasons the GOP is in major trouble.

The first is what you pointed out about non-MAGA GOP. James Talarico, for example, is getting a substantial portion of that vote in Texas.

The second is independents. Trump’s the least popular president going into a midterm on record with independents. He’s even less popular than Nixon was before he was forced out in August of 1974.

Democrats for Congress are rolling with independents. They may put up their best margin with them in any election in the exit poll era — i.e., nearly 50 years of congressional exit polls.

Stelter: We both know why Trump isn’t airing clips of you saying that at his rallies. But do you think he’s misleading rallygoers by cherry-picking some of your points about his base support?

Enten: Here’s what I’ll say: I think you can watch my segments, short and long. The MAGA GOP is just a small part of them. They help tell a story, but it’s not the full story.

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CNN首席数据分析师哈里·恩滕（Harry Enten）在今年秋季唐纳德·特朗普总统的竞选集会上意外走红。

在各州的竞选活动中，特朗普播放了恩滕在 CNN 节目中的片段，重点展示了恩滕强调总统在自称“让美国再次伟大”的共和党人中持久受欢迎程度的时刻。

在本月的中期选举冲刺期间，CNN的视频片段至少在竞选集会上播放了16次。特朗普经常站在大屏幕上观看这些片段，而集会参与者则为恩滕的讲话欢呼。有时，在视频播放完毕后，特朗普会说“哇”或“谢谢，CNN”。

但这些片段缺乏任何背景信息，很容易让观众对特朗普的真实政治立场产生误解。因此，我向恩滕询问了这段剪辑及其与即将到来的中期选举的关联。为了篇幅和清晰度，我们的对话内容略有删减。

斯特尔特：你是数据专家，所以我们先来看一些数字：今年你大概制作了多少个关于中期选举的电视节目和视频？

恩滕：哦，我的天……嗯，我们来想想……2026年到现在已经超过300天了……我几乎每天都上电视，包括周末。我休息了一段时间……但我认为300期节目是一个合理的起点。

可能不止！或许远不止，但我们还是保守估计吧。

斯特尔特：显然总统一直在看那些节目片段。去年，他提到了你的名字，但念得一塌糊涂。今年，他念对了。他喜欢说“连CNN”都报道了一些对他有利的事情，然后就会提到你。这对你来说是不是有点不可思议？

恩滕：嗯，如果十年前你告​​诉我，a) 我会上 CNN，b) 美国总统会在他的竞选集会上播放我的视频片段……我一分钟都不会相信。我觉得这种可能性只有百万分之一……而且这可能还是高估了。

斯特尔特：那么关于那些视频片段：他为什么一直播放它们？

恩滕：因为他认为这能证明他很受欢迎。特朗普的品牌理念就是胜利，在他看来，那些视频片段恰恰展现了他胜利的迹象。

斯特尔特：你在视频片段里说了什么？

恩滕：嗯，我想他放了两段视频……或许三段。说实话，我闲暇时间都在看《布鲁姆》的剧集。其中一段，我记得是关于“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）运动的支持率基本上与他在2024年获得的该运动支持率持平。另一段是关于共和党众议院候选人的支持率基本上与特朗普在2024年获得的支持率持平。第三段是关于在共和党内部，他是迄今为止最受尊敬的总统，甚至超过了里根和林肯。

斯特尔特：当然，你在那些视频片段里说的都是当时的事实。但现在看来，有些信息是否已经过时了？

Enten：我还没看到其他“最受尊敬”的民意调查，但我敢打赌特朗普仍然遥遥领先。

他在“让美国再次伟大”共和党人中的支持率略有下降，但“让美国再次伟大”共和党人对国会共和党候选人的支持率保持不变，甚至略有上升。这是福克斯新闻民调的结果。

当然，“让美国再次伟大”的共和党人只是选民的一部分。

斯特尔特：这才是关键所在，对吧？特朗普一直把“MAGA共和党人”和所有共和党人混为一谈。究竟有多少共和党人不认同MAGA理念？

恩滕：这取决于民调结果。但我认为可以肯定的是，相当一部分人并不认同“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）的理念。在一些民调中，非MAGA共和党人中，特朗普的支持率实际上低于反对者。

斯特尔特： “MAGA共和党人”这个分类真的有用吗？它不就是衡量特朗普支持率的指标吗？

Enten：想知道我为什么开始收集这个指标吗？

恩滕：我记得，原因在于伊朗战争初期，到处都在说“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）运动因为这场战争而内讧。这让我开始思考，“这是真的吗？” 事实上并非如此。

“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）是一个自我定义的群体，对吧？但选择加入这个群体的人都喜欢特朗普。我认为它的意义在于帮助我们理解“让美国再次伟大”本质上就等同于特朗普。如果这种情况发生改变，那就很有意思了。

斯特尔特：同意。现在你每天都在电视上预告中期选举，谈论很多其他指标。特朗普不宣传这些节目，原因显而易见：这些节目表明他的党派在选举方面处境艰难。这和“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）共和党人与非MAGA共和党人之间的分歧有很大关系吗？

恩滕：共和党陷入困境的原因有两个。

首先，正如你所指出的，共和党内也有非MAGA支持者。例如，詹姆斯·塔拉里科在德克萨斯州就获得了相当一部分选票。

第二大群体是独立选民。特朗普是历任总统中在中期选举前最不受独立选民欢迎的一位。他的支持率甚至低于尼克松在1974年8月被迫下台前的水平。

民主党国会候选人正在争取独立选民的支持。他们可能会在出口民调时代（即近50年的国会出口民调历史）的任何一次选举中，获得独立选民支持的最大优势。

斯特尔特：我们都知道为什么特朗普没有在他的竞选集会上播放你这番话的片段。但你认为他是否在断章取义地引用你关于他基本盘支持率的观点，从而误导集会参与者？

恩滕：我想说的是：我认为你们可以看看我的节目片段，无论长短。MAGA共和党只是其中的一小部分。它们有助于讲述一个故事，但并非故事的全部。